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Ambiente geostrategico (12 agosto 2022) – Geostrategic environment (august 12, 2022)

FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS

with The Science of Where Magazine

AROUND THE WORLD

Afghanistan

Africa

  • August 11, 2022. Stephen Karingi and Wafa Aidi, Brookings. The narrative around a successful African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—its potential to increase intra-African trade by 15 to 25 percent, or $50 billion to $70 billion—is promising, but if African businesses do not efficiently utilize this landmark agreement, its ultimate success will be limited. Since the private sector is directly involved in cross-border trade, it is a major stakeholder and beneficiary of the AfCFTA. Thus, to better understand how African businesses are approaching the AfCFTA and, more importantly, how the AfCFTA can best support those businesses through trade, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) created the AfCFTA Country Business Index (ACBI). The AfCFTA Country Business Index: Understanding private sector involvement in the AfCFTA

Antarctica

  • August 2022. Yun Jiang, AIIA. Australian concerns regarding the international ambitions of the PRC have heightened during the tenure of its President, Xi Jinping. The Antarctic is no exception.
    When the Australian Government updated its Antarctic Strategy earlier this year, then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison highlighted the PRC as a disruptive and coercive force, stating that “they don’t share the same objectives as Australia”. Is that an accurate assessment of the PRC’s objectives in Antarctica? While the PRC and Australia certainly have some divergent interests in Antarctica, common interests also exist. Both countries, for instance, wish to see the Antarctic Treaty System remain in force. Chinas-Antarctic-ambitions-and-their-implications-for-Australia-Yun-Jiang-August-2022.pdf (internationalaffairs.org.au)

Australia

  • August 12, 2022. , The Strategist. A series of global and national events over the past six months, among them Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the emergence of foot-and-mouth disease and lumpy-skin disease in Indonesia, flood- and Covid-19-affected food supply chains, a bee-killing varroa mite invasion on Australian shores and increasing cost-of-living pressures have all combined to place food security and the role it plays in maintaining stability at the forefront of everyday consciousness. Agriculture, national security and nation-building in northern Australia

China – Philippines

  • August 9, 2022. Bonnie S. Glaser, Charmaine Willoughby, GMF. Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines, tried to improve ties with China during his presidency in the hope of securing economic benefits for the country. However, those efforts did not see fruition. During his 2022 presidential campaign, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. did not openly criticize Duterte’s China policy. In fact, he argued that the policy of engagement was correct, saying “we don’t want to go to war with China” over the South China Sea. Moreover, the Marcos family has maintained warm ties with Beijing throughout the decades.  China’s Relations with the Philippines under Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr.

Georgia

  • August 11, 2022. Beka Chedia, The Jamestown Foundation. As a result of the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia, according to the latest data, about 250,000 Russians are already in Georgia at present. In Georgia, citizens of Russia and Belarus are considered one and the same. The Georgian opposition, in early August 2022, demanded that the authorities introduce a visa regime for Russia and Belarus—since such a high number of Russians (including Belarusians) in the country already pose a threat to Tbilisi’s national security (Interpressnews.ge, August 4). Yet, Georgian authorities have already categorically rejected the possibility of introducing a visa regime with Russia. Moreover, chair of the ruling party, Irakli Kobakhidze, on August 5, called this opposition initiative “a shameful, targeted xenophobic campaign” (Facebook.com/KobakhidzeOfficial, August 5). Georgian Fears of Widespread Russification Intensify

Germany – Russia

  • August 11, 2022. Constanze Stelzenmüller, Brookings. In a strong bid for least surprising prediction of the year, Germany’s Commerzbank said last week that Russian cuts in natural gas supplies could trigger “a severe recession” and possibly even an economic crisis like “the one that occurred after the financial crisis in 2009.” Gas rationing would “probably be inevitable.”. Germany is now the fulcrum for Vladimir Putin’s pressure

Ghana

  • August 11, 2022. Moizza Binat Sarwar, Rebecca Holmes, David Korboe, Alexander Afram, Heiner Salomon, ODI. In this study we document and assess the distinct experiences of vulnerability to shock and exclusion in three illustrative areas of Ghana to identify the multidimensional drivers of the two phenomena. Understanding vulnerability and exclusion in Ghana

India

  • August 12, 2022. Venkatachalam Anbumozhi, East Asia Forum. India is the world’s second largest coal importer. It also imports 80 per cent of its crude oil and 45 per cent of natural gas demands. US$1 billion worth of coal and 2 per cent of India’s oil demand, nuclear reactors and fertilisers are supplied by Russia. Soaring energy prices stunt decarbonisation in the Indian power sector

Kazakhstan – Russia

  • August 11, 2022. Paul Globe. The Jamestown Foundation. Many in Moscow are furious at Kazakhstan’s leadership for its ingratitude about Russia’s help in putting down a popular uprising in January 2022 (see EDM, January 20), for its increasing nationalism that is prompting ever more ethnic Russians to flee the country (see EDM, September 9, 2021) and for its efforts to attract foreign firms leaving Russia to Kazakhstan (see EDM, July 19). Additionally, the Kremlin has been bristled by Nur-Sultan’s plans to bypass Russia in exporting oil and gas (see EDM, June 28), its public unwillingness to back Moscow’s policies in Ukraine and, most recently, for reports that Kazakhstani firms are shipping weapons to Ukraine via third-party countries (Tsargrad.tv, August 10). Is Kazakhstan Going to Follow Ukraine as Putin’s Next Target?

Moldova

  • August 11, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s war in Ukraine, with an undisguised goal to advance on Odesa, threatens by the same token to open a corridor to Transnistria and bring Russian forces onto Moldova’s and Romania’s land borders. These looming threats and risks must jump-start efforts by Moldova’s Western partners to secure the country against Moscow’s re-expansion. Moldova’s Bizarre Neutrality: No Impediment to Western Security Assistance (Part One)

Russia – China

Russia – Ukraine

  • August 4, 2022. NAM Seung Hyun, IFANS. Since Russia unleashed a war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, according to the Ukraine High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), 11,862 civilian casualties have been reported with 5,110 killed and 6,752 injured.  The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) further reports that almost 6 million refugees from Ukraine have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe with more than 9.5 million having crossed the border from Ukraine.  In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, described as the largest conventional military attack in Europe since World War II, some members of the international community  are calling for ways to hold Russia and its leaders accountable for committing serious violations of international law. In fact, at the request of Ukraine, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) already ordered on March 16 a provisional measure against Russia to cease its military operations.. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown even proposed the establishment of a new Nuremberg-style Tribunal to hold President Putin accountable considering the current limitations of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Based on these developments, this paper aims to examine whether and how Russia and its leaders can be held accountable, and how the lawfare can affect the political dynamics in the region. IFANS
  • August 4, 2022. SONG Tae Eun. IFANS. The Russia-Ukraine war which began earlier this year is the first full-fledged conflict involving cyber operations. With the war raging on, observers around the world have been presented a rare opportunity to take a closer look at how cyber warfare activities could unfold in a full-fledged long war and how these activities shape the developments on the battlefield. For many years, the international community has engaged in a series of discussions to shape global norms on cyber-attacks, but discussions have largely been confined to cyber operations in low-intensity, localized, and short-term military conflicts or cyber-attacks that do not accompany military action. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the potential of cyber warfare in full-fledged conflicts and how it could shape modern warfare. The situation unfolding in Ukraine also tells us much about the inherent limitations of cyber operations. IFANS
  • August 11, 2022. UN News.  The situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has deteriorated rapidly to the point of becoming “very alarming,” Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi warned the Security Council on Thursday afternoon. ‘Very alarming’ conditions at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,  IAEA chief warns

Taiwan

  • August 12, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. Much of the foreign-policy conversation in the United States over the past two weeks has centred on whether House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi ought to have visited Taiwan. Her backers point out that there was precedent for such a visit—a previous speaker and cabinet members had visited Taiwan—and that it is important for officials to underscore the US commitment to Taiwan in the face of increasing Chinese pressure. But critics argued that the trip was ill-timed, because Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely feel a need to respond, lest he appear weak heading into a critical party congress later this year. There were also worries that the visit might lead Xi to do more to support Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Xi’s guns of August
  • August 11, 2022. Justin Katz, Valerie Insinna, Breaking Defense. A US Marine Littoral Regiment stationed in southern Taiwan is holding off hostile forces conducting an amphibious invasion near Tainan City. The MLR’s land-based, anti-ship missiles have slowed the Chinese fleet’s advances considerably, but the unit is running low on ammunition. It will need to be resupplied soon or face long odds in continuing to repel the invaders. ‘A bloody mess’ with ‘terrible loss of life’: How a China-US conflict over Taiwan could play out
  • August 11, 2022. CSIS. As U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi traveled to Taiwan on August 2-3, China responded with forceful and coercive military, economic, and diplomatic measures. Developments are still unfolding, but the large-scale and unprecedented military exercises taken by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) far exceed the operations China engaged in during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis that took place in 1995-1996. Chinese escalation has precipitated the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis, leading to international calls for China to immediately halt its military activities.  Tracking the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (Updated August 11)
  • August 11, 2022. CSIS’s Dr. Bonny Lin joins the podcast to discuss the aggressive military exercises China conducted against Taiwan and how she’s tracked the crisis, what the United States is doing and should do in response, and what China’s overarching strategy in the Taiwan Strait is. Unprecedented Chinese Activity toward Taiwan
  • August 11, 2022. Jeremy Mark, Atlantic Council. China’s response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taipei—launching missiles and conducting aggressive naval and air exercises—has changed the military status quo in the waters surrounding Taiwan. But Beijing’s economic actions—barring imports of various Taiwanese food products, as well as ending Chinese exports of sand—appear designed to leave cross-strait trade largely undisturbed. The uncomfortable economic truth behind Xi Jinping’s Taiwan threats

USA – China – Indo Pacific

  • August 11, 2022. Doug Strub, East Asia Forum. The Biden administration’s launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) negotiations signals renewed US economic engagement in the region. The new framework will supplement the US security focus and seek to re-establish a US leadership role in shaping trade rules. United States and China vie for influence in Indo-Pacific

Venezuela – Colombia

  • August 11, 2022. Kerrie Holloway, Megan Daigle, Alexander Alegría Lozada, Rocío Murad, ODI. Venezuela plunged into recession in 2015, resulting in a mass out-migration of six million people, with many settling in neighbouring Colombia. How migration and displacement have affected the gender norms, roles and power relations of those on the move has been little researched and left largely unaddressed in the humanitarian response. Changing gender norms in displacement: Venezuelans in Bogotá, Cúcuta and Pasto, Colombia

TOPICS

Climate change & sustainability

  • August 11, 2022. Drew Beacom, AIIA. Climate change dominated Australia’s most recent federal election, with voters ditching the conservative establishment in favour of progressive candidates (namely Greens and Independents) campaigning for climate action. Australian voters have desired greater climate action for years, even taking to the streets to demand more from the climate laggards that occupied Parliament House for the better part of a decade.  Climate Change Policy Offers New Hope in the Pacific
  • August 11, 2022. Simon GlynnSimon Cooper, WEF. One group of consumers is pushing companies into taking responsible actions on climate change, but they’re not necessarily who you expect. The ‘climate catalysts’ forcing firms to protect the planet

Cybersecurity – Defense – Military – Security – Space

Digital & Tech

  • August 9, 2022. Matthew Clayson, MMF ’16, GMF. Many responsible business leaders are increasingly asking what they can do to protect democratic societies against unprecedented threats from undemocratic actors. While Russia’s war in Ukraine offered a moment for businesses to respond to these actors forcefully, the business sector must do more at home to strengthen democratic processes, systems, and society. A necessary area for increased cooperation is a shared commitment to protecting and advancing digital human rights. Digital Human Rights Build a More Durable Democracy
  • August 11, 2022. Luíza Andrade, Marcus Holmlund, Roshni Khincha, Sekou Kone, World Bank blogs. Making informed policy decisions requires having access to high-quality data. In the last 15 years, technological advancements have led to a dramatic shift toward more efficient and reliable methods of collecting data. The development community and national statistics agencies utilize advanced computer-assisted technology for data collection. Four constraints for adoption of electronic data collection methods
  • August 11, 2022. Aaron Klein, Brookings. Brookings’s Center on Regulation and Markets and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy recently hosted “The future of crypto regulation,” keynoted by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam. Benham’s keynote was followed by a discussion with experts representing an array of perspectives, including that of regulatory agencies, academia, and industry. Here are five takeaways from the event, which you can watch in its entirety here. The future of crypto regulation: Highlights from the Brookings event

Displaced populations

Future of work

Global Governance

  • August 11, 2022. Anil Anand, AIIA. Members of the UN General Assembly are increasingly concerned that the UN Charter is demonstratively asymmetrical — it is neither effective, nor reflective of the new world order. For decades this concern has fuelled calls for the Security Council to be modified, modernised, and reformed — with Australia, Spain, and Uganda amongst the strongest advocates for change. It’s Time to Reform the United Nations Security Council

Global Justice

  • August 3, 2022. Clare Manuel, Marcus Manuel, ODI.  Despite the growing global movement on people-centred justice approaches, latest aid figures confirm that justice is a low priority for donors, accounting for just 1.4% of their aid. This is in marked contrast to the priority they attach to justice in their own countries, which accounts for 4% of their budgets. Justice aid update and lessons from latest evaluations of donor programming

Health & Digital