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Ambiente geostrategico: complessità, giudizio storico, scenari (9 agosto 2022 PM) – Geostrategic environment: complexity, historical judgment, scenarios (9 august 2022 PM)

Il G20 e la megacrisi 

Il think tank Vivekananda International Foundation scrive della interrelazione delle sfide cui è chiamato il G20 che, dopo la Presidenza dell’Indonesia, sarà guidato dall’India: The world is becoming an increasingly disorderly place. Geopolitical tensions are rising sharply. The chances of a wider conflict engulfing the world cannot be ruled out. Some of the G20 members are at loggerheads with each other on a number of issues. The threat of global recession is looming large. The Covid 19 pandemic has left scars that will take a long time to heal. Despite the Paris Climate Change agreement, greenhouse gas emissions are rising and the world is on course to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius global mean temperature rise. The transition to clean energy is proving to be extremely arduous for most countries. The emerging technologies, despite theirbenefits, come with the risk of destabilization. The concerns over health, food, water, and energy security are growing. The stability of the global financial system is at risk as several countries face the problem of mounting debts and debt repayment defaults. The G20 will have to navigate these risks to global order.

La inter-in-dipendenza sistemica che caratterizza il mondo ci presenta la com-presenza dei rischi che diventano la megacrisi de-generativa nella quale siamo immersi. Tutto questo non può più essere compreso e governato solo con il pensiero lineare e con la competizione. Sono sempre più necessari percorsi di cooperazione strategica, non escludendo alcun soggetto dal tavolo negoziale, superando la voglia di ritorno a una “guerra fredda” che, oltre ad assumere contorni ben diversi e ben più pericolosi della precedente, condurrebbe il mondo al disastro. I fora come il G20 si sono fino a ora rivelati poco efficaci. Abbiamo bisogno di nuove mediazioni e di nuove visioni politiche per costruire la prospettiva della glocalizzazione.

Un ulteriore elemento ci sembra fondamentale. Con il terzo millennio, con l’avanzare della rivoluzione tecnologica e dentro rischi sempre meno prevedibili (si pensi agli attacchi cyber), è cambiato il significato stesso delle parole: pace e guerra, a esempio, vanno ri-pensate alla luce delle dinamiche del mondo (a-politico) post-caduta del muro di Berlino.

Il percorso è lungo, difficile ma molto sfidante. Da queste pagine, ogni giorno, cerchiamo di diffondere una cultura della complessità per un giudizio storico pertinente: pensiamo che serva un nuovo pensiero strategico per decisioni politiche che si muovano nel futuro già presente.

English version

The think tank Vivekananda International Foundation writes about the interrelation of the challenges to which the G20 is called. After the Indonesia’s Presidency, G20 will be led by India: The world is becoming an increasingly disorderly place. Geopolitical tensions are rising sharply. The chances of a wider conflict engulfing the world cannot be ruled out. Some of the G20 members are at loggerheads with each other on a number of issues. The threat of global recession is looming large. The Covid 19 pandemic has left scars that will take a long time to heal. Despite the Paris Climate Change agreement, greenhouse gas emissions are rising and the world is on course to cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius global mean temperature rise. The transition to clean energy is proving to be extremely arduous for most countries. The emerging technologies, despite theirbenefits, come with the risk of destabilization. The concerns over health, food, water, and energy security are growing. The stability of the global financial system is at risk as several countries face the problem of mounting debts and debt repayment defaults. The G20 will have to navigate these risks to global order.

The systemic inter-in-dependence that characterizes the world shows us the com-presence of the risks that become the de-generative megacrisis in which we are immersed. All this can no longer be understood and governed only with linear thinking and competition.

Strategic cooperation paths are increasingly needed, not excluding any subject from the negotiating table, overcoming the desire to return to a “cold war” which could be very different and more dangerous than the previous one. A new “cold war” would lead the world to disaster. Fora like the G20 have so far proved ineffective. We need new mediations and new political visions to build the perspective of glocalization.

A further element seems fundamental. With the third millennium, with the advance of the technological revolution and within increasingly less predictable risks (think of cyber attacks), the meaning of the words has changed: peace and war, for example, must be rethought in the light of the dynamics of post-fall of the Berlin Wall (a-political) world.

The path is long, difficult but very challenging. From these pages, every day, we try to spread a culture of complexity for a pertinent historical judgment: we think that a new strategic thinking is needed for political decisions that move into the future already present.

Riflessioni collegate

FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS

with The Science of Where Magazine

AROUND THE WORLD

Brazil

China

  • August 9, 2022. Anushka Saxena, VIF. China’s perceived image of its past actively shapes its policy in the present. For a China determined to restore its past glory, it is significant to utilize narratives from history to effectively shape and justify a fervent and yet aggressive foreign policy. Like all other nations, the Chinese Communist Party (hereby referred to as CPC) has craftily utilized moments of historical relevance, from the First Opium War in 1839 and the culmination of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, to internalising and ultimately suppressing the radical impacts of events like the Cultural Revolution and the Tiananmen Square massacre, in order to rally political agendas and incite a sense of nationalistic fervour in the hearts and minds of citizens. However, the extent to which the victimhood emergent from a deplorable past has been used by China to justify its expansionism and aggression today is unlike any other country. How China’s Past Actively Shapes its Foreign Policy

India

  • August 9, 2022. Akshay Joshi, ORF. In 2015, the Government of India (GOI) launched the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) scheme to provide ‘Housing for All’ by 2022. Nearly seven years have passed since the launch of the scheme and we are way past the initial deadline. At this juncture, it becomes pertinent to understand the housing ecosystem, the role, the scheme’s performance and its limitations, and the way forward. The Centre needs to rethink the PMAY-G scheme

India – Maldives

  • August 8, 2022. Sreeradha Datta, VIF. The Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih visited India recently (1-4 Aug 2022). He was accompanied by several high-level officials comprising, Ibrahim Ameer, Minister of Finance, Fayyaz Ismail, Minister of Economic Development, Aishath Mohamed Didi, Minister of Gender, Family and Social Services along with a business delegation. Their first stop on the way to New Delhi was at Mumbai where they not only met with the industry and entertainment representatives but also visited one of the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority terminal for understanding the functioning of the port. The two sides exchanged six documents, covering cyber security, disaster management, women and child development, and infrastructure development in this latest visit. The agreements reflected the growing Indian interest in this archipelago nation. The re-establishment of democratic norms and restoration of close bilateral ties has led to a burst of bilateral activities. India- Maldives – Growing Convergences

Israel

  • August 9, 2022. Haggay Etkes, Wifag Adnan, INSS. New arrangements for the employment of Gazan workers in Israel in construction and agriculture began on August 1. This article presents the findings of a study on employment of Gazans in Israel: it demonstrates the rise in income among Gazans who work in Israel, while showing the difficulty related to regulation for workers employed in the manufacturing and service industries, which did not receive permits to employ Gazans. Gazan Workers in Israel: Implications for Employment Regulations

Israel – China – USA

  • August 8, 2022. Galia Lavi, INSS. Relations between Israel and the People’s Republic of China have seen ups and downs, ranging from overt hostility to warm relations. Prof. Yitzhak Shichor, one of the leading and most experienced scholars in Israel on the subject of China, explains in a special interview how relations between Jerusalem and Beijing took shape, and how the United States, based on its own interests, affected these relations. Interview with Prof. Yitzhak Shichor: American Interests Affect the Changes in Israel-China Relations

I2U2

  • August 9, 2022. Debasis Bhattacharya, VIF. With the formation of I2U2 grouping comprising India, Israel, the USA, and the UAE a new strategic alliance has come into action towards promoting robust cooperation for establishing geostrategic and geo-economic equilibrium coupled with shared economic progress in the traditionally sensitive West Asia. The region also constitutes proximity to India and falls in New Delhi’s extended neighbourhood in the west. The first I2U2 Summit virtually held on July 14, 2022 and attended by the Heads of Government of India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States has provided enormous impetus, synergy, and viable roadmap to harness the socio-politico-economic vibrancy, resources, and entrepreneurial spirit ingrained among the partner countries while addressing some of the critical challenges the emerging world order is grappling with. At the meeting the leaders identified priority areas encompassing water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security. I2U2 Grouping: Transformational Force for Global Good and India’s Strategic Imperatives

Mali

  • August 9, 2022. HRW. Mali’s authorities should act to uphold fundamental freedoms and the rule of law during the new two-year timetable for transitioning to civilian rule, Human Rights Watch said today. They should promote respect for freedom of expression and the media, ensure due process rights for criminal suspects, and end torture and enforced disappearances. Mali: Rights Reforms Crucial for Civilian Rule

Nagorno – Karabakh

  • August 9, 2022. Crisis Group. Several soldiers have been killed in clashes between Azerbaijani troops and ethnic Armenian forces answering to the de facto authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising fears of escalation. Crisis Group experts Olesya Vartanyan, Zaur Shiriyev and Anita Mihaeljana explain what can be done to safeguard the ceasefire.  Warding Off Renewed War in Nagorno-Karabakh

Nigeria

  • August 9, 2022. HRW. A series of attacks and threats within close proximity of Nigeria’s seat of government in Abuja by Islamist and other armed groups are causing fear and apprehension among citizens in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and across the country, Human Rights Watch said today. Nigeria: Insecurity Grips Nation’s Capital

Sri Lanka

  • August 9, 2022. HRW.  Sri Lanka’s new president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, should ensure that his administration adopts measures to protect the basic rights of all Sri Lankans, Human Rights Watch said in a letter published today outlining key human rights concerns. Wickremesinghe was sworn in as president on July 21, 2022, after then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa stepped down after months of widespread protests against economic mismanagement and corruption. Sri Lanka: New President Should Chart Path Upholding Rights

Taiwan

  • August 9, 2022. Aditya Bhan, Kartik Bommakanti, ORF. Following the United States (US) Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, an angered People’s Republic of China (PRC) is undertaking provocative military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi had arrived in Taipei last Tuesday, disregarding a blizzard of warnings and intimidatory signals from the PRC, which considers Taiwan a renegade province. Post landing in Taiwan, Pelosi tweeted reiterating the US’s unflinching commitment to support Taiwan’s vibrant democracy and reaffirming American support to ‘shared interests including advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific region,’ further irking the already agitated Beijing. China’s military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait
  • August 9, 2022. Rajaram Panda, VIF. In the wake of escalating tensions between the US and China that started over trade issues and further complicated by the Covid-19, the Taiwan issue has emerged as a caucus belli for a possible conflagration, which if not controlled with deft diplomacy and dialogue, could snowball into a major regional crisis, adversely impacting many nations in the region and with perilous consequences. The background of this analysis is the visit of White House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan on 2 August, becoming the highest-profile elected American official and third in line to the US presidency in 25 years to visit the self-ruled island, and the strong response of China, which considers the island nation as its own and therefore considers visits by foreign government officials and that of Pelosi as their recognition of the island’s sovereignty. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan takes the Island Nation to International Limelight
  • August 8, 2022. Valerie Insinna, Breaking Defense. The Pentagon’s top policy official refuted reports claiming that US officials now believe China could invade Taiwan by 2024, but stated that China’s recent military activities around Taiwan are an attempt to create instability in the region. ‘We’re not going to take the bait:’ DoD downplays China escalation around Taiwan

USA – Africa

  • August 8, 2022. Lee Ferran, Breaking Defense. The Biden administration’s new policy for sub-Saharan Africa accuses China of seeing the region as an “arena” in which to wage a battle against the US-led “rules-based international order” and Russia of causing instability and then cashing in on the chaos. In Biden’s new Africa strategy, China and Russia linger in the background

USA – DR Congo

  • August 9, 2022. US Department of State. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will travel to Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, where he will meet with government leaders and representatives of civil society to discuss the extensive partnership on issues including regional security, respect for human rights, environmental conservation, climate change, and bilateral trade and investment. The United States-Democratic Republic of the Congo Relationship

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

  • August 2, 2022. PIK. For every three trees dying from drought in the Amazon rainforest, a fourth tree – even though not directly affected – will die, too. In simplified terms, that’s what researchers have now found using network analysis to understand the complex workings of one of Earth’s most valuable and biodiverse carbon sinks. The regions most at risk of turning into savannah are located on the forest’s Southern fringes, where continuous clearing for pasture or soy has already been weakening the forest’s resilience for years. Less rain in the forest: Amazon even more vulnerable than previously thought
  • August 2, 2022. PIK. Researchers call for a new “Climate Endgame” agenda and say far too little work has gone into understanding the mechanisms by which rising temperatures might pose a “catastrophic” risk to society and humanity: For instance if temperature rises are worse than many predict or cause cascades of events we have yet to consider, or indeed both. The world needs to start preparing for the possibility of a “climate endgame”, the authors argue in a perspective piece in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences PNAS. Assessing catastrophic risks is necessary in order to have a better chance of preventing them. Considering catastrophe: high-impact, low-probability climate scenarios “dangerously underexplored”

Cybersecurity – Defense – Military – Security – Space

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