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Pensiero Strategico Progetto di civiltà

Complessità, politica e società aperte – Complexity, politics and open societies

Portare la complessità nel pensiero è operazione necessaria. Gli intellettuali e gli analisti dovrebbero “convertirsi” al pensiero complesso, aiutare tutti a comprendere un mondo che sta virando verso scenari di grandi rischi e di altrettante opportunità. Prima di tutto, per quanto ovvio, questa prospettiva dovrebbe riguardare la formazione al realismo di classi dirigenti adeguate (non solo in politica).

Nel momento in cui il rischio non è più lineare e prevedibile, il nostro atteggiamento culturale verso gli altri e verso la realtà non può più essere binario, non può più limitarsi a dividere il mondo in buoni-cattivi, amici-nemici. Questo approccio è del tutto anti-storico e crea illusioni di sicurezza elevando pericolosamente il livello d’immunizzazione delle società aperte (e profondamente disgregate al loro interno). Se spostiamo, come accade, l’asse della competizione sul piano dei rapporti sociali rischiamo di smarrire le infinite possibilità date da società aperte governate politicamente.

Occorre ricongiungere esperienze locali e dinamiche planetarie. E le comunità umane devono ritrovarsi nel “comune”, il luogo di senso e di significato che genera coesione e progettualità. I “governati”, attraverso la loro auto-determinazione strategica, diventano “governanti” di fatto e aiutano i propri rappresentanti a governare politicamente la glocalità: a patto, naturalmente, che tutti colgano il vincolo complesso che lega le società al loro interno, i territori e il pianeta, considerando i primi come mondi-nel-mondo.

Non dobbiamo aver paura delle crisi della democrazia. Essa, sistema imperfetto, si compie progressivamente e, nel fare questo, incontra tutte le difficoltà dei sistemi liberi. Le crisi, pertanto, fanno parte dell’esperienza democratica. Dobbiamo invece temere la loro de-generazione laddove le democrazie non colgano il momento storico che chiede una profonda auto-critica politica delle società aperte. Il problema, allora, è in questo passaggio: se teniamo alla democrazia, scelta da privilegiare secondo chi scrive, dobbiamo costruire le prospettive culturali di ri-pensamento della stessa. E questa operazione non può che passare dalla scelta del pensiero complesso.

English version

Bringing complexity into thinking is a necessary operation. Intellectuals and analysts should “convert” themselves to complex thinking, helping everyone to understand a world turning towards scenarios of great risk and of many opportunities. First of all, this perspective must concern the training-in-realism of adequate ruling classes (not only in politics).

When the risk is no longer linear and predictable, our cultural attitude towards others and towards reality can no longer be binary, cannot longer limit to dividing the world into good-bad, friend-enemy. This approach is completely anti-historical and creates illusions of security by dangerously raising the level of immunization of open (and deeply disrupted within them) societies. If we shift, as happens, the axis of competition on the level of social relations, we risk losing the infinite possibilities given by open and politically governed societies.

Local experiences and planetary dynamics need to be reunited. And human communities must find themselves in the “common” that generates cohesion and strategic horizons. The “governed”, through their strategic self-determination, become de facto “rulers” and help their representatives to politically govern glocality: provided, of course, that all grasp the complex bond that binds societies within them, the territories and the planet, considering territories as worlds-in-the-world.

We must not be afraid of the crises of democracy. Imperfect system, democracy takes place progressively and, in doing so, it encounters all the difficulties of free systems. Crises, therefore, are part of the democratic experience. Instead, we must fear their de-generation where democracies do not grasp the historical moment that calls for a profound political self-criticism of open societies. The problem, then, is in this passage: if we care about democracy, a choice to be privileged, we must build the cultural perspectives of rethinking it. And this operation can only pass from the choice of complex thinking.

Riflessioni collegate

FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS – DAILY NEWSLETTER

Around the world: Central Asia, China, China-Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Italy, Middle East, Mongolia, Muslim Brotherhood, Philippines, Russia-Ukraine, Sierra Leone & Rwanda, Sudan, UK, Uganda, USA, USA-China, Yemen

Topics: Cybersecurity, Defense-Intelligence-Military-Security-Space, Digital & Tech, Energy & Climate Change, Food Crisis, Health & Digital, Global

AROUND THE WORLD

Central Asia

China

  • July 22, 2022. Michael Clark, The Interpreter. China’s President Xi Jinping undertook what state media have termed an “inspection tour” of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region between 12 and 15 July. Those hoping that this visit would show possible signs of a loosening of the Party-state’s repression in the region have been sorely disappointed. Xi’s visit to the region in fact amounts to a victory lap wherein he not only reaffirmed that the Chinese Communist Party has hewed to the “correct path of solving ethnic issues with Chinese characteristics” but also indicated measures through which it intends to consolidate the perceived gains achieved by Xi’s hard line. Dizzy with success: Xi consolidates repression in Xinjiang

China-Africa

  • July 22. 2022. Yu Xi, Global Times. The 11th Meeting of the China-Africa Think Tanks Forum was held on Wednesday and Thursday in Beijing and Jinhua, East China’s Zhejiang Province, with more than 200 officials, scholars and other attendants from China and 19 African countries and regions participating in the events online and on-site to enhance the deep understanding between the two sides. 11th China-Africa Think Tanks Forum promotes spirit of China-Africa friendship and cooperation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

  • July 22, 2022. UN News. As conflict grows in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the rising death toll and suffering of displaced civilians through brutal attacks, is cause for serious concern said the UN refugee agency UNHCR on Friday, which appealed for fresh funds to meet “soaring needs” across the country. UNHCR alarmed by growing death toll among displaced in eastern DR Congo

Italy 

Middle East

  • July 21, 2022. Jon B. Alterman, CSIS. We have been hearing about transitions in the Middle East for years now. There was the hoped-for democratic transition, which has been a bust. There is an energy transition looming. There is, arguably, a water transition afoot as aquifer depletion, surface-water exhaustion, and climate change all combine to make a mostly arid region profoundly more so. But an equally profound transition may be one few are talking about: a labor transition that may reorder the economics, politics, and society of the entire Middle East, from Casablanca to Tehran. The Middle East Transition We Need to Talk About

Mongolia

  • July 21, 2022. Orkhon Gantogtokh, East Asia Forum. In 2019, Mongolia ranked 102 out of 141 countries in the Global Competitiveness Report. Its areas of weakness included the prominence of research institutions, scientific publications, graduate skills and ease of finding skilled workers. In this final category, Mongolia ranked 140 out of 141. Mongolia’s paradoxical education problem

Muslim Brotherhood

  • July 20, 2022. Matteo Colombo, Clingendael. Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022

Philippines

  • July 22. 2022. HRW. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should demonstrate a serious commitment to human rights in his first State of the Nation Address on July 25, 2022, Human Rights Watch said today. The address, in which Marcos is expected to outline his government’s policies and programs for his six-year term, is a chance to distance himself from the rampant rights violations and deep-seated impunity of the Rodrigo Duterte administration. Philippines: Marcos Should Focus on Rights Issues

Russia-Ukraine

  • July 22, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. After World War II, global diplomatic efforts sought to create a new international order that would prevent the world from descending into war, chaos and anarchy again. A major part of that project was to refine the international legal order by establishing tribunals to prosecute war crimes. Hearings held in Nuremberg and Tokyo established that aggression is the ‘supreme international crime’—one for which leaders from Nazi Germany and imperial Japan were sentenced to death. The necessity of territorial integrity
  • July 22, 2022. HRW. Russian forces have tortured, unlawfully detained, and forcibly disappeared civilians in the occupied areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Human Rights Watch said today. Russian forces have also tortured prisoners of war (POWs) held there. Ukraine: Torture, Disappearances in Occupied South
  • July 21, 2022. Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Layne Philipson, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces conducted a few limited and highly localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational tempo is not markedly different from what it was during the officially declared operational pause between July 7 and July 16.Russian forces continued to conduct minor attacks throughout that period to the northwest of Slovyansk and around the Siversk and Bakhmut areas without capturing any decisive ground. Since July 16, Russian troops have continued local attacks to the east of Siversk as well as east and south of Bakhmut; they have not made any major territorial gains in these areas as of July 21. The Russian grouping northwest of Slovyansk has in fact conducted fewer ground attacks along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border than it did during the official operational pause. The lack of successful ground attacks beyond the Slovyansk, Siversk, and Bakhmut areas is consistent with ISW’s assessment that the Russian offensive is likely to culminate without capturing Slovyansk or Bakhmut. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21

Sierra Leone & Rwanda

  • July 21, 2022. Camilla Kuckartz, Mathias Esman, World Bank blogs. This is a critical time for education. A cost-of-living crisis, including rising food and energy prices and the war in Ukraine are putting pressure on policymakers to cut education budgets. It is tempting because economic dividends from education only materialize decades later and students cannot exert political pressure by voting. Yet as education advisors with the governments of Sierra Leone and Rwanda, we have seen first-hand how governments are prioritizing education funding. To some, these countries may seem like unlikely champions of education. Both faced cataclysmic violence in the 1990s and remain among the poorest in the world. But they are working hard to change that – and investing in education is a central pillar of their economic strategies. How to prioritize education in a time of crisis

Sudan

  • July 20, 2022. Anette Hoffmann, Clingendael. Three years after the historic ousting of the long-time dictator al-Bashir, Sudan’s revolution continues. The military coup of last October has effectively ended Sudan’s post-Bashir transition to democracy but has fanned the flames of the Sudanese people’s struggle for freedom, peace, and justice. Protesters from Sudan’s non-violent resistance movement continue to risk their lives by taking to the streets demanding the end of military rule and the transfer of power to a civilian government. The international community, however, has spent the last eight months trying to restore a power-sharing government whose very viability had become untenable. The West’s struggle in Sudan

UK

  • July 22, 2022. HRW. The United Kingdom government is set to tarnish its own landmark advancement on violence against women by excluding migrant women from key protections. This perpetuates longstanding barriers for migrant women whose residency status depends on their abusers, as they may fear expulsion from the UK if they seek help for domestic violence. UK: Tackling Violence against Some Women, But Not All

Uganda

  • July 21, 2022. Mukami Kariuki, Ruth Charo, World Bank blogs. A high school drop-out, Evelyn Nakabuye, who lives on the outskirts of Kampala, survived years of joblessness. She lived in a small house with her four children and her mother. “I was jobless and stranded,” she says. That all changed in 2018 when Evelyn heard about a training opportunity at TEXFAD, a skills training academy located near her home.  She enrolled the same year and trained for six months in carpet-design and weaving, a program falling under the US$100 million World Bank-funded Uganda Skills Development Project. She excelled at it and was retained by the program to teach others how to make carpets from banana stem fiber and T-shirt offcuts. With her salary, Evelyn now lives in her own house, pays school fees for her children, and takes care of herself. Skills development initiative brings positive changes in Uganda

USA

USA-China

  • July 22, 2022. Zhang HuiWang Qi and Xing Xiaojing, Global Times. After China warned of “strong and resolute measures” over US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned Taiwan trip, US President Joe Biden on Wednesday hinted the Pentagon opposed Pelosi’s trip. Chinese observers believe that Biden administration has clearly received China’s message about a possible diplomatic and military response, which could be something the US is not able to afford.  China’s message of warning ‘received’ as Pentagon opposes Pelosi’s planned Taiwan visit
  • July 21, 2022. Ryan Hass, Jude Blanchette, CSIS. Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine is only the latest in a series of events that have shaken the global order and raised profound questions about the nature and frequency of state-to-state military conflict, the trajectory of globalization and technological innovation, and the utility of legacy multilateral institutions. The U.S.-China relationship, arguably the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship, has been impacted by these recent shocks, but has also itself been the cause of much of the uncertainty surrounding the international order. Central Questions in U.S.-China Relations amid Global Turbulence

Yemen

TOPICS

Cybersecurity

Defense-Intelligence-Military-Security-Space

Digital & Tech

  • July 21, 2022. Giuliano Pozza, Agenda Digitale. Nelle mani della crescente massa dei regimi che vanno dagli “autoritari” alle “democrazie imperfette”, la tecnologia è uno strumento di dominio potentissimo. Sorveglianza di massa, la Cina non è poi così lontana: perché potremmo diventare tutti uiguri
  • July 22, 2022. Shravishtha Ajaykumar, Shruti Jain, ORF. Despite the current discrepancies in socio-economic access to technology, women’s participation in digital economies predicts that including 600 million female users can increase the global GDP by US$ 5 Billion. G20 and the gender focus on the digital divide
  • July 22, 2022. Basu Chandola, ORF. The application of emerging technologies in humanitarian assistance has increased in recent years, and they have proven effective in delivering life-saving interventions to populations in need. In a fast-changing technological landscape, the use of such tools is only expected to increase further. At the same time, however, the use of technologies brings certain challenges, such as misuse of data and the spread of misinformation. This brief examines the current use of technology for humanitarian assistance in different parts of the world, and underlines the principles that should frame the practice. Promoting Principles-Based Use of Technology in Humanitarian Assistance
  • July 22, 2022. Seth Hays, East Asia Forum. Trade in counterfeit goods is approximately 2.5 per cent of global trade (US$461 billion) — and over 80 per cent of these counterfeits are manufactured or traded in the Asia Pacific. Digital trade in Southeast Asia alone will grow to US$1 trillion by 2030. But as trade moves online and e-commerce grows, so too does trade in counterfeit goods. Building trust in Asia’s digital trade revolution
  • July 21, 2022. Veronica Balocco, CORCOM. Il progetto di Rome Technopole, l’ecosistema di innovazione della Regione Lazio nato con l’obiettivo di alimentare la filiera di ricerca e innovazione in sinergia con il mondo imprenditoriale, entra nel vivo. Dopo la firma dell’atto costitutivo, l’8 giugno, ieri la Fondazione ha fatto un ulteriore passo avanti con l’atto di adesione da parte di enti e aziende al ‘Rome Technopole’, firmato nel Senato accademico dell’Università Sapienza di Roma. Oltre alle sei università di Roma e del Lazio (Tor Vergata, Roma Tre, Luiss, Tuscia, Cassino e il Campus Biomedico), infatti, prendono parte al Rome Technopole anche la Regione Lazio, il Comune di Roma, i 4 enti di ricerca nazionali (Cnr, Enea, Infn e Iss)Inailla Camera di Commercio di Roma e poi venti aziende tra cui Leonardo, Acea, Aeroporti di Roma, Eni e Unicredit. Rome Technopole entra nel vivo: bandi al via – CorCom (corrierecomunicazioni.it)
  • July 21, 2022. L.O., CORCOM. Più innovazione per l’insurtech italiano. Saranno big data, Intelligenza artificiale e Space innovation a dare la svolta al settore rendendolo in grado di affrontare le sfide legate al cambiamento climatico. Ma servono più investimenti: secondo l’Italian Insurtech Association mancano 400 milioni all’appello per sviluppare tecnologie in grado di mappare i rischi e stipulare polizze adeguate. Insurtech alla sfida climate change, spinta su AI e space innovation
  • July 21, 2022. F.Me., CORCOM. Ericsson completa l’acquisizione di Vonage. Il takeover vale 6,2 miliardi di dollari, pari a 5,5 miliardi di euro, la più grande acquisizione di sempre per la multinazionale svedese che, grazie alla soluzioni di Vonage, potrà offrire  una suite completa di soluzioni di Communications Platform as a Service (CPaaS), UCaaS (Unified Communications as a Service) e CCaaS (Contact Center as a Service). Ericsson compra Vonage, sul piatto 6,6 miliardi di dollari – CorCom
  • July 21, 2022. A.S., CORCOM. Obiettivo dell’operazione è aiutare le organizzazioni a prendere decisioni più informate sfruttando le ricerche in linguaggio naturale basate sull’intelligenza artificiale. Sap accelera sui search-driven analytics: takeover su Askdata
  • July 21, 2022. Veronica Balocco, CORCOM. Battute le stime degli analisti che si fermavano a 640,5 milioni di euro. Vendite in aumento del 3%. Determinante la forte domanda di apparecchiature da parte degli operatori. Nokia, utili oltre le attese a 714 milioni: sprint dal 5G
  • July 21, 2022. Domenico Aliperto, CORCOM. Completato l’upgrade sull’infrastruttura che serve 28 Paesi in quattro continenti. Grazie all’intervento, la reta ora è completamente automatizzata e programmabile. Intanto in Italia il gruppo sigla, insieme a Kyndryl e Lutech, la convenzione Consip sui servizi di migrazione al Cloud della PA. Vodafone rinnova il network globale all’insegna dell’Sdn
  • July 21, 2022. L.O., CORCOM. Abbonamenti a quota 34,9% con una crescita del 18,6% nel 2021 nei 38 Stati aderenti all’organizzazione. Italia sopra la media con il 43,3%. Per la prima volta superato l’utilizzo del “cable” (non adottato nel nostro Paese). Banda larga fissa, Ocse: fibra vincente, sorpassato anche il cavo
  • July 22, 2022. Lorenzo Forlani, CORCOM. In partnership con Virginia Tech e il Technology Innovation Institute si punta a sviluppare soluzioni in grado di valorizzare le capacità dell’AI anche in ottica green. Intelligenza artificiale a prova di sostenibilità, Ericsson in campo
  • July 21, 2022. Domenico Aliperto, CORCOM. Le due società hanno annunciato una partnership per lo sviluppo di un sistema che permetterà a Cariad, la divisione software del colosso tedesco, di garantire la fornitura di semiconduttori per le auto del gruppo Volkswagen nei prossimi anni. Chip, Volkswagen e StMicroelectronics uniscono le forze
  • July 21, 2022. Veronica Balocco, CORCOM. Accenture, Capgemini, Deloitte, Ntt Data, Sap e Tim tra i collaboratori chiave dell’ampio ecosistema che supporta la trasformazione digitale del Paese, facendo leva sulle due regione tricolore. Il country manager Fabio Fregi: “La nuvola asset cruciale per la ripresa economica e la competitività”. Google Cloud, in Italia mercato da 2 miliardi per i partner

Energy & Climate Change

Food Crisis

Health & Digital

Global

  • July 22, 2022. UN News. An “unprecedented agreement” on the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports via the Black Sea is “a beacon of hope” in a world that desperately needs it, UN Secretary-António Guterres said on Friday at the signing ceremony in Istanbul, Türkiye.  Black Sea grain exports deal ‘a beacon of hope’ amid Ukraine war – Guterres
  • July 22, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. Given its neutrality and mediation capabilities ASEAN could lead the creation of a global platform for regional integration arrangements – something that it could pursue on the basis of an R20 (regional 20) format within the G20, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Yaroslav Lissovolik. The Year of ASEAN Centrality
  • July 21, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. The Ukraine conflict will act as a catalyst of a greater engagement in the region, with an increased support to Japan’s historical rearmament and with increased sales of weaponry and military hardware to Taiwan, South Korea and other American-friendly countries located near the PRC’s near abroad, writes Valdai Club expert Emanuel Pietrobon. The Indo-Pacific in the Wake of the Ukraine Conflict: From China’s Continuing Rise to the Anglosphere’s Return
  • July 22, 2022. Stephen Grenville, The Interpreter. The rise in US interest rates has revived perennial concerns about emerging economy foreign debt. As rates rise and the US dollar strengthens, the debt burden becomes greater and riskier. In this environment, destabilising capital outflows are more likely. Some fear a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” – a reactionary panic by investors after the US Federal Reserve hinted that it might scale back its asset purchases. It could be much worse for some chronically over-stretched borrowers. Capital flows to emerging economies
  • July 20, 2022.  John Cotton Richmond, Atlantic Council. Survivors of human trafficking lack the necessary assistance from governments, while offenders continue to operate with impunity. Victim identification is down—but bans on the import of goods made by victims of forced labor are on the rise. Survivor leadership matters, and more countries than ever are listening to victims. Reading between the lines of the world’s top human-trafficking report
  • July 21, 2022. Vasuki Shastry and Jeremy Mark, Atlantic Council. A perfect storm of economic forces threatens to swamp developing countries with inflation, rising interest rates, and unsustainable debt.  The world isn’t ready for the looming emerging-market debt crisis
  • July 21, 2022. Atlantic Council. It’s the new, broiling normal. Europe’s brutal heat wave this week—which notched the highest temperature ever recorded in the United Kingdom at 104 degrees Fahrenheit—has buckled airport runways and fueled scorching wildfires. It’s also racking up a death toll in the thousands. This is the reality of the changing climate—and it will only get worse from here. Even as they work to reduce carbon emissions, how can societies and individuals adapt to this extreme heat? Our climate-resilience experts bring the light rather than the heat. How to beat the extreme heat