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Dentro al paradigma politico – Inside the political paradigm

Nella eccitazione democratica, presto diventata illusione, seguita alla caduta del muro di Berlino e alla implosione dell’Unione Sovietica, abbiamo dato per scontato che bastasse la sola esistenza della democrazia a garantire un quadro politico adeguato per i decenni che sarebbero arrivati. Ebbene, come abbiamo già notato, ci siamo sbagliati.

La realtà si trasformava profondamente e velocemente sotto i nostri occhi, prima di tutto in conseguenza di una inarrestabile rivoluzione tecnologica. La tecnologia, che noi stessi creiamo per cercare di superare i limiti della nostra intelligenza umana nel governo della realtà sempre più complessa, è diventata una parte indispensabile della nostra esperienza di vita e ha ormai “invaso” tutti gli ambiti della stessa.

Nel corso degli ultimi tre decenni abbiamo vissuto accelerazioni straordinariamente importanti ma, sostanzialmente, non abbiamo lavorato su un nuovo paradigma politico. Le classi dirigenti si sono concentrate su come alimentare o contrastare i “vari capitalismi” che si sono succeduti (manifatturiero, finanziarizzato, digitale) ma non hanno davvero pensato a come dovesse trasformarsi il pensiero politico per la decisione strategica.

Oggi sembriamo essere arrivati a un punto di non ritorno. Non intendiamo drammatizzare o disegnare scenari apocalittici ma fermarci a ri-pensare. La megacrisi ci dice, anzitutto, che non possiamo più affrontare una crisi per volta: non possiamo più permetterci di scansionare temporalmente i nostri interventi in base a ciò che, di volta in volta, si presenta come più urgente. Tutto è intimamente legato, inter-in-dipendente, e non possiamo fare a meno di un pensiero complesso e sistemico.

Ci soffermeremo molto sul paradigma politico necessario. Esso è il centro della nostra riflessione nell’oltre. Se guardiamo nel nostro presente, ben considerando la pandemia che ancora stiamo vivendo (certamente non l’ultima che accompagnerà le nostre vite) e la guerra in Ucraina (la prima in Europa dopo molti decenni e la prima, ibrida, del terzo millennio), la questione di fondo – che condiziona tutto il resto – è certamente quella sociale. La decisione politica, strategica perché riguarda direttamente la complessità della nostra sicurezza, è chiamata a nuove visioni e a nuove mediazioni. Tutto si sviluppa a livello glocale e le soluzioni vanno modulate in questa “nuova” prospettiva.

English version

In the democratic excitement, which soon became an illusion, following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union, we assumed that the existence of democracy was enough to guarantee an adequate political framework for the decades to come. Well, as we have already noted, we were wrong.

Reality was transforming deeply and quickly before our eyes, first of all as a consequence of an unstoppable technological revolution. Technology, which we ourselves create to try to overcome the limits of our human intelligence in the governance of increasingly complex reality, has become an indispensable part of our life experience and has now “invaded” all areas of it.

Over the past three decades we have experienced extraordinarily important accelerations but, fundamentally, we have not worked on a new political paradigm. The ruling classes have focused on how to feed or counter the “various capitalisms” that have followed one another (manufacturing, financialized, digital) but have not really thought about how political thinking should be transformed for strategic decision-making.

Today we seem to have reached a point of no return. We do not intend to dramatize or design apocalyptic scenarios but to stop and re-think. The megacrisis tells us, first of all, that we can no longer face one crisis at a time: we can no longer afford to temporally scan our interventions on the basis of what, from time to time, appears to be the most urgent. Everything is intimately linked, inter-in-dependent, and we cannot do without complex and systemic thinking.

We will think a lot about the necessary political paradigm. It is the center of our reflection in the beyond. If we look into our present, well considering the pandemic we are still experiencing (certainly not the last that will accompany our lives) and the war in Ukraine (the first in Europe after many decades and the first, hybrid, of the third millennium), the basic question – which conditions everything else – is certainly the social one. The political decision, strategic because it directly concerns the complexity of our security, is called to new visions and new mediations. Everything develops on a glocal level and the solutions must be modulated in this “new” perspective.

Riflessioni collegate

FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS – DAILY NEWSLETTER

Around the world: Australia-China, China, China-Indonesia, China-South Korea, Iran-Russia, Iraq, Israel, Japan-Australia, Kashmir, Nigeria, Russia-Ukraine, Syria-Lebanon, USA, USA-Middle East

Topics: Climate Change & Sustainability, Cybersecurity, Defense-Intelligence-Military-Security-Space, Digital & Tech, Energy, Global Economy, Global Governance, Global Supply Chains, Health & Digital 

AROUND THE WORLD

Australia – China

  • July 26, 2022. , The Strategist. Australia is now seeing the reality of its bilateral relationship with China: one with tension, in which engagement occurs but is not the goal in itself, and where Australia doesn’t concede sovereignty for economic gain. Australia is walking the walk on China

China

  • July 26, 2022.  Yu Yongding, East Asia Forum. China’s GDP growth rate has been falling since the first quarter of 2010. After more than 40 years of breathtaking growth, it is not surprising that China’s economy has lost some steam. Having fallen steadily from 10.6 per cent in 2010 to 6 per cent in 2019, it remains to be seen whether China’s growth will continue to decline and at what level it will stabilise. China is struggling to contain the impact of Omicron and stabilise the economy

China – Indonesia

  • July 26, 2022. Zhao Yusha and Liu Caiyu, Global Times. With President Joko Widodo of the Republic of Indonesia being the first foreign leader to visit China since the Winter Olympics in February this year, the ties between China and Indonesia are set to witness an all-round upgrade after his visit, Chinese observers said on Monday. They noted that both sides are not only eyeing to uplift cooperation on trade and infrastructure, but also inching toward cooperation on building “a community with a shared future for mankind” and upholding multilateralism and fair development for international community. Widodo starts China trip, to focus on trade, mutual coordination on regional affairs

China – South Korea

Iran – Russia

  • July 25, 2022. Sine Ozkarasahin, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 11, US intelligence warned that Tehran was preparing to send hundreds of Iranian unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Moscow. Open sources in Washington claimed that, in early July, Tehran had showcased the Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones to a visiting Russian delegation. Commercial satellite imagery allegedly confirmed that a delegation from the Kremlin had visited Kashan Air Base at least twice in the past month (Radio Farda, July 16). If realized, a drone deal between Iran and Russia would signify a transfer of unmanned aerial capabilities between parties in the anti-West camp during an ongoing war. Can Iranian Drones Respond to Putin’s Call for Help?

Iraq 

  • July 25, 2022. Hamzeh Hadad, ECFR. Iraq has been in political limbo since its parliamentary election in October 2021. Iraqi MPs have yet to form a government. While Iraq is no stranger to such dynamics, this prolonged paralysis has left a power vacuum that continues to destabilise the country. It is difficult to predict when someone will break the deadlock. And, even if a new government does emerge in the coming months, a key issue for European policymakers will be the type of prime minister who leads it. Deadlocked and loaded: Iraq’s political inertia

Israel

  • July 26, 2022. Yuval ShanyAmichai Cohen, Lawfare. On July 5, a panel of three justices on the Supreme Court of Israel rendered a long-awaited decision in a civil appeal brought against a 2018 district court judgment concerning a tort claim made by a Palestinian residing in Gaza (whose name is not provided in the decision). Anonymous v. Ministry of Defense and the Knesset was first brought to the Beer Sheva District Court in 2016, over a year after the claimant had been shot and injured by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) service members while being present in the Gaza Strip (about 500 meters from the border between Israel and Gaza). The Supreme Court’s judgment revolved almost exclusively around the scope of state immunity from tort claims arising from incidents in “enemy territory” afforded in a 2012 amendment to Israel’s tort laws, and its applicability to the situation in Gaza. Moving Toward Blanket Immunity: Israeli Supreme Court Blocks Gaza Tort Cases

Japan – Australia

  • July 26, 2022. , The Strategist. On 8 July, the world was stunned by the assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe during a campaigning speech in the city of Nara two days before elections were to take place. While domestic debates about improved security for politicians continue in Japan, it’s also timely to reflect on the legacy of Abe’s achievements in terms of not only his foreign policy legacy, but, especially for Australians, the contribution he made towards strengthening Japan–Australia ties. Abe’s crucial contribution to Japan–Australia ties

Kashmir

  • July 26, 2022. Shivangi Seth, The Interpreter. At the age of five, Rahul Bhat fled Kashmir with his family amid what is commonly referred to as the 1990 Kashmiri Pandit exodus. The Pandits are Hindu Brahmins and one of Kashmir’s Indigenous minorities. Following a severe escalation in violence and religiously motivated killings in the 1990s, most Kashmiri Pandit families left the valley, with only an estimated 800 staying behind. Pandits subsequently became an internally displaced community within India. Bhat returned to Kashmir in 2010 under a government rehabilitation scheme. On 12 May this year, militants shot Bhat dead while he was in his office at a government agency in central Kashmir. A smoke screen of “normalcy” in Kashmir

Nigeria

  • July 26, 2022. Julia Vaillant, World Bank blogs. As Nigeria continues its critical work to lead 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2030 and manage its demographic transition, building the human capital of women and girls and expanding their economic opportunities and earnings will be essential. A new report from the Nigeria Gender Innovation Lab, Closing Gaps, Increasing Opportunities: A Diagnostic on Women’s Economic Empowerment in Nigeria, proposes a menu of proven and promising policy solutions to increase women’s earnings, whether they are farming, running a business, or earning wages. Using recent data from the Nigeria General Household Survey, we measure how large disparities in earnings are between women and men and investigate what are the main factors underlying those inequalities. Closing Gaps, Increasing Opportunities

Russia – Ukraine

  • July 25, 2022.  Kishore Mahbubani, East Asia Forum. Populations in Western countries are angry. Western elites, who are supposed to lead their societies in the right direction, are instead leading them in the wrong direction on Ukraine. There is a wiser course of action. Talking with Russia key to plight of global poor
  • July 25, 2022. Richard Arnold, The Jamestown Foundation. As the Kremlin’s ill-planned re-invasion of Ukraine wears on, much speculation has hinted at Russia’s manpower and other resources being depleted and wasted on the battlefield. One indicator that lends strength to such a narrative is the increasing use of Cossack reserve forces in Ukraine.  Whereas before, the majority of Cossack forces were drawn from the Rostov and Kuban regions that border Ukraine, a recent announcement showed that more forces from the Orenburg Host are being sent to Donbas (see EDM, May 10). Indeed, “as part of 450 volunteers of the Bashkir battalion named after Minigali Shaimuratov, Cossacks of the Ufa-Tabyn division of the Orenburg Cossack Host went to coordinate combat and to participate in the special military operation in Ukraine. According to the Ataman of the Ufa-Tabyn division, the Bashkir regiment is staffed with 20 Cossacks who have considerable combat experience” (Vsko.ru, July 8). Yet, Bashkiria is an ethnic republic in its own right, and in the 1990s, speculation alluded to possible secessionism there, along with neighboring Tatarstan. The fact that Russia is having to draw so deeply on its reserves of Cossack forces implies that Moscow’s manpower shortage may be quite serious. Russia’s Increasing Use of Cossack Reservists Highlights Manpower Shortage
  • July 25, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitations that previously prevented them from rapidly gaining substantial ground during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast.Geolocated social media footage from July 25 shows that troops of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) have advanced into Novoluhanske and Russian and Ukrainian sources noted that Russian forces are taking control of the territory of the Vuhledar Power Plant on the northern edge of Novoluhanske, likely as a result of a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the area.  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 25
  • July 25, 2022. Ihor Kabanenko, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 9, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority announced the opening of the Bystre Canal on the mouth of the Danube River for the entry and exit of vessels transporting Ukrainian agricultural products (Uspa.gov.ua, July 9). “Bystre was blocked by vessels of the Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company at the beginning of the war. We understood that the enemy could try to advance deep into Ukrainian territory through the mouth of the Danube. We decided to prevent this together with the border guards and the military. Our tugboats placed a certain number of lighters in Bystre, reliably blocking the estuary,” said Dmytro Moskalenko, acting general director of Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company (Cfts.org.ua, July 11). Unblocking the Bystre Canal became possible thanks to the liberation of Snake Island from Russian troops; the island “has strategic importance, as it allows control of the surface and partly air situation in the south of Ukraine, which was used by the occupier to block the movement of civilian vessels in the southern part of our state” (UNIAN, July 11). The Bystre Canal Across the Danube: ‘Mosquito’ Tactics in Ukraine’s Grain Shipping
  • July 25, 2022. John E. Herbst, Atlantic Council. Some illusions die hard; others have a short shelf life. Moscow’s July 23 attack on port facilities in Odesa—which came less than twenty-four hours after Moscow and Kyiv signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations (UN) to unblock Ukraine’s Black Sea ports—illustrates both points.  Moscow shattered two illusions with one missile strike. The White House needs to accept reality

Syria – Lebanon

  • July 25, 2022. Lina Khatib, Chatham House. The growing Captagon trade in Syria and Lebanon has been given much attention in recent months. The networks involved in this trade, such as the Fourth Division of the Syrian Arab Army and other smaller armed groups in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and networks of smugglers in both countries, help extend its reach beyond the borders of Syria and Lebanon, smuggling Captagon to Gulf countries – especially Saudi Arabia – and even to Europe. The transnational nature of this illicit activity and its link to the context of the Syrian conflict requires international policies that take into account cross-border conflict dynamics, including how people can end up involved in illicit activities to cope financially. A key component of any such policy must be an understanding of the impact of the Captagon trade specifically and drug smuggling more generally on local communities, especially those residing in border regions between Lebanon and Syria. How the Captagon trade impacts border communities in Lebanon and Syria

USA

  • July 25, 2022. Darrell M. West, Brookings. The investigations into the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill insurrection reveal how close America came to overturning its democratic system. The peaceful transfer of power that has long characterized U.S. history was threatened last year and it took considerable effort on the part of many individuals to survive the challenges of Donald Trump and his allies. Disturbing testimony over the last few weeks revealed coordinated efforts to seat Electoral College electors who did not represent the winning side of the popular vote and lawyers who encouraged then-sitting Vice President Mike Pence to nullify two centuries of constitutional rule through the view that he alone could decide who won the campaign. Trump is not the only threat to democracy

USA – Iran

  • July 26, 2022. Matthew Zweig, FDD.  After an extended pause, the Biden administration and the Iranian government resumed indirect negotiations in Qatar late last month over a joint return to the 2015 nuclear agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The talks had reached an impasse due to the Biden administration’s apparent refusal to yield to Tehran’s demand that Washington lift the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ designation as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). The Guards, or IRGC, are still very much in the business of terrorism, but Tehran recognizes the administration is ready to pay almost any price for a deal. However, bipartisan resistance in Congress to giving the IRGC a pass stayed Biden’s hand. How Congress Can Keep Biden From Caving to Iran’s Demands

USA-Middle East

  • July 25, 2022. Steven Heydemann, Brookings. U.S. President Joe Biden’s meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been widely described as a retreat from his intent to restore a foreign policy anchored in a commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. While the White House insists that its support for a values-based foreign policy has not been compromised, the realist turn in Biden’s approach to the Middle East has been welcomed by some as a necessary corrective, including, apparently, by senior officials in Biden’s National Security Council. Rights as realism in the Middle East

TOPICS

Climate Change & Sustainability

Cybersecurity

Defense-Intelligence-Military-Security-Space

Digital & Tech

  • July 26, 2022. Tata Dinyuy Bolivian, World Bank blogs. Public services in Cameroon are going online, entrepreneurs are building startups, and development partners and the private sector are increasingly financing the digitalization of services.  Internet traffic is on the rise. The number of public and private data centers is growing, as are cloud computing services, virtual private servers, domain registrations, and email hosting. This is all a sign of Cameroon’s embrace of digital transformation. However, the digital sector contributes only around three percent to Cameroon’s GDP, which is below similar economies such as Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire.  Data for better lives in Cameroon
  • July 26, 2022.  Henry Gao, East Asia Forum. It has become more commonplace for trade agreements in the Asia Pacific to include a variety of digital trade provisions. To understand the salient features of these agreements, it is helpful to map out their main baseline features. Doing so also indicates where digital trade agreements may be going or need to go.  Digital provisions play a key role in Asia Pacific agreements
  • July 25, 2022. William Reinsch, CSIS. Export controls have always been controversial—having run the dual-use export control program in the Clinton administration, I can testify to that. But it seems that lately, thanks largely to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, they have moved to an even more intense level of public and professional scrutiny. Meeting the Technology Transfer Challenge: Part I
  • July 25, 2022. Nicol Turner Lee, Brookings. Not a single week of 2022 has passed without multiple mass shootings. 343 people have been killed and 1,391 injured through July 4 of this year. In Uvalde, Texas, a troubled 18-year-old conducted the deadliest school shooting in a decade, killing his grandmother, 19 children and two teachers from Robb Elementary School. In Buffalo, New York, a white gunman killed 10 Black elders in a mass shooting at a Buffalo supermarket. These events were devastating, but not unprecedented. Both shooters were young adults and had a history of being engaged with more violent online communities. The perpetrator in the Buffalo hate crime attempted to livestream the attack while it was happening. TechTank Podcast Episode 49: How does the internet facilitate worsening gun violence?

Energy

Global Economy

Global Governance

  • July 26, 2022.  and , Social Europe. At their meeting in Bali in mid-July, G20 finance ministers reaffirmed their commitment to co-ordinated action to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control and better prepare for the next global health emergency. A central topic was the creation of a new financial intermediary fund (FIF) to address pandemic preparedness and response (PPR), under the trusteeship of the World Bank and with the World Health Organization playing a central technical and co-ordinating role. The goal is to close some of the annual PPR financing gap of $10.5 billion and help strengthen capacities that are critical to protecting global health, including genomic sequencing and drug manufacturing. Effective pandemic response must be truly global

Global Supply Chains

  • July 25, 2022. Sujai Shivakumar, Gregory Arcuri, Charles Wessner, CSIS. Global supply chains, particularly in technologies of strategic value, are undergoing a remarkable reevaluation as geopolitical events and trends weigh on the minds of decisionmakers across government and industry. The rise of an aggressive and revisionist China, a devastating global pandemic, the disruptive churn of technological advancement, and—most recently—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are prompting a dramatic rethinking of the value of lean, globally distributed supply chains. Efficiency is now being recast in terms of reliable and resilient supply chains that are better adapted to emerging geopolitical uncertainties rather than purely on the basis of lowest cost. Given its globalized operations, the semiconductor industry is at the forefront of these challenges. How it responds may well set the tone and pace for economic cooperation and globalization in the twenty-first century. The Great Rewiring: How Global Supply Chains Are Reacting to Today’s Geopolitics
  • July 25, 2022. Darrell M. West and David Dollar, Brookings. Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies at Brookings, discusses his new report, “Six ways to improve global supply chains.” In the conversation, West and host David Dollar discuss the recommendations for addressing recent snarls in supply chains resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the trade conflict between the U.S. and China. How to improve global supply chains

Health & Digital

  • July 26, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Researchers have developed a machine learning (ML) model capable of estimating national weekly opioid overdose mortality trends in near real-time using proxy data sources such as public health information and law enforcement data. ML Model Estimates Weekly Opioid Overdose Deaths Using Proxy Data
  • July 25, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A recently developed artificial intelligence (AI) model out of the University of Michigan (U-M) can predict hemodynamic instability, a key indicator of patient deterioration, more accurately than traditional vital sign measurements. Patient Deterioration Predictor Outperforms Vital Sign Measurements
  • July 25, 2022. , Infosecurity. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has updated its cybersecurity guidance for protecting healthcare data. The draft update will provide a more practical guide for healthcare providers to comply with government rules on personal health data security, it claimed. NIST Updates Healthcare Security Guidance
  • July 25, 2022. Nicol Turner LeeNiam Yaraghi, and Samantha Lai, Brookings. The United States has long struggled with a health care system that is both expensive and often inaccessible when it comes to providing certain populations with equitable care. The White House and Congress acted quickly to transition patients to telehealth during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the future adoption and use of telehealth will depend on how the U.S. health care system addresses coverage and reimbursement, medical licensure, and service modalities. Equally important is policy coherence, or a “telehealth 2.0 roadmap”, to effectively harmonize the goals of value-based care, health disparities, and digital access. This approach to telehealth can improve patient outcomes, offer more inclusive telehealth adoption, and increase ways in which health care is delivered and received as the nation continues to mitigate the public health crisis. The roadmap to telehealth efficacy: Care, health, and digital equities