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Giudizio storico Pensiero Strategico Progetto di civiltà

Dialogo politico e prospettive strategiche – Political dialogue and strategic perspectives

Solo dal dialogo politico possono nascere nuove prospettive strategiche. E’ a cominciare dalla mediazione tra interessi di parte che può costruirsi quello spazio comune, profondamente politico, che è spazio della relazione. Se la competizione non è eliminabile, perché ci appartiene, è sempre più necessario contaminarla di cooperazione.

Il dialogo politico non è solo mediazione, oggi praticata come compromesso. La mediazione è, potremmo dire, la prima fase del dialogo: in essa, infatti, occorre lavorare sulla de-radicalizzazione degli interessi particolari, per la loro apertura strategica. In un mondo fondato sul bisogno di immunizzazione, di difesa (culturale e militare) dall’esterno non possiamo commettere l’errore di rinunciare alla società aperta, di scegliere l’autarchia. Ormai le relazioni internazionali sono diventate un’arena competitiva tra visioni del mondo spacciate per verità assolute.

L’unico modo che abbiamo, strategicamente parlando, per costruire nuove prospettive è spaccare il fronte della radicalizzazione, re-immaginando – nella glocalità e nella rivoluzione tecnologica – una nuova architettura di politiche sociali per l’equità e la giustizia. Il tutto, naturalmente, dentro un discorso di sostenibilità sistemica e complessa: ciò deve tenere conto della megacrisi in atto, non separabile nelle singole crisi settoriali.

Il dialogo politico non è solo mediazione ma è anche la strada da percorrere per dare respiro a una nuova realtà politica e, dunque, umana. Una realtà, lo ribadiamo, che non può essere a-conflittuale e organizzata secondo il principio di non contraddizione (sarebbe totalitaria). Ciò significa che la nuova realtà politica deve avere come scelta una democrazia liberale soggetta ad auto-critica continua.

Veniamo da un secolo, il ‘900, che ci ha mostrato la potenza devastante delle religioni politiche. Gli autoritarismi e, ancora di più, i totalitarismi ci hanno portato dentro alle tragedie dei sistemi compiuti, considerati perfetti in essenza. Il vero suicidio occidentale si realizzerebbe se il “nostro” mondo continuasse a radicalizzarsi nei suoi valori-verità, rinunciando a lavorare sull’incertezza della libertà e sull’apertura al mondo. Se l’Occidente vuole recuperare un ruolo storico, senza pretendere di dominare la storia, deve scegliere il dialogo politico.

English version 

Only from political dialogue can arise new strategic perspectives. It is starting from the mediation between partisan interests that common space, space for relationship and profoundly political, can be built. If competition cannot be eliminated, because it belongs to us, it is increasingly necessary to contaminate it with cooperation.

Political dialogue is not just mediation, today practiced as compromise. Mediation is the first phase of dialogue: in fact, it is necessary to work on the de-radicalization of particular interests, for their strategic opening. In a world founded on the need for immunization, defense (cultural and military) from the outside, we cannot make the mistake of renouncing the open society, of choosing autarchy. International relations have now become a competitive arena between worldviews passed off as absolute truths.

The only way we have, strategically speaking, to build new perspectives is to split the front of radicalization, re-imagining – in glocality and in the technological revolution – a new architecture of social policies for equity and justice. All of this, of course, within a discourse of systemic and complex sustainability: this must take into account the megacrisis in progress, which cannot be separated into sectorial crises.

Political dialogue is not only mediation but it is also the way to go to give breath to a new political and, therefore, human reality. A reality, we repeat, that cannot be a-conflictual and organized according to the principle of non-contradiction (it would be totalitarian). This means that the new political reality must have as its choice a liberal democracy subject to continuous self-criticism.

We come from a century, the 1900s, which showed us the devastating power of political religions. Authoritarianisms and, even more so, totalitarianisms have brought us into the tragedies of completed systems, considered perfect in essence. True western suicide would be realized if “our” world continued to radicalize itself in its values-as-truth, giving up working on the uncertainty of freedom and on openness to the world. If the West wants to recover a historical role, without claiming to dominate history, it must choose political dialogue.

Riflessioni collegate

FROM GLOBAL THINK TANKS – DAILY NEWSLETTER

with The Science of Where Magazine

Around the world: Afghanistan; Africa; ASEAN; Belarus; China; China-Afghanistan; Gabon; Iran; Kenya; Myanmar; Papua New Guinea; Russia-Ukraine (on the ground-impact); Taiwan; USA-Middle East

Topics: Climate Change & Sustainability; Counter terrorism-Cybersecurity-Defense-Military-Security-Space; Digital & Tech; Global Economy

AROUND THE WORLD

Afghanistan

  • April 4, 2022. HRW. Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis cannot be effectively addressed unless the United States and other governments ease restrictions on the country’s banking sector to facilitate legitimate economic activity and humanitarian aid, Human Rights Watch said today. Human Rights Watch issued an updated question-and-answer document outlining the economic crisis and steps to overcome it. Afghanistan: Economic Crisis Underlies Mass Hunger
  • August 3, 2022. James Cunningham, Ryan Crocker, Hugo Llorens, P. Michael McKinley, Ronald E. Neumann, and Earl Anthony Wayne, Atlantic Council. Since coming to power last year, the Taliban has increasingly reverted to form on almost every level. The killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a Kabul safe house on July 31 only underscores the group’s continued close ties with the Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network. Taliban leaders are also steadily reimposing the world’s most extreme restrictions by far on women and girls, returning to their old practices of “disappearing” women by closing off their education, restricting their travel, dictating their dress, and limiting their movement.  It’s time to block Taliban leaders’ trips abroad

Africa

  • August 3, 2022. Joseph Asunka, E Gyimah-Boadi, Carolyn Logan, Chatham House. Across Africa, recent years have been marked by both encouraging democratic highs and troubling anti-democratic lows. Notable advances from last year include the Gambia’s successful presidential election, a ruling-party transition in Zambia and the first democratic transfer of power in Niger. In the lead up to this, add Malawi’s retake of its flawed presidential election in 2020 and an earlier succession of oustings of long-serving autocrats in Sudan, Zimbabwe and the Gambia.  Will Africans’ calls for better democracy be met?

ASEAN

  • August 4, 2022. Muhammad Ersan Pamungkas, The Interpreter. The idea of an “official language” for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been a contentious subject over the years. Recently, the issue has resurfaced. Does ASEAN really need an official “second language”?

Belarus

  • August 3, 2022. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 27, Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk “people’s republic,” paid a visit to the city of Brest, Belarus. He laid a wreath at the eternal flame in front of the Brest Fortress commemorating its defenders’ feats at the start of the Nazi German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. “Today it is time to liberate Russian cities founded by Russian people: Kyiv, Chernihiv, Poltava, Odesa, Dnepr, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Lutsk,” Pushilin declared during the ceremony. Interestingly, Belta, Belarus’s official press agency, made no mention of Pushilin’s visit. Perhaps more importantly, no national-level official accompanied Pushilin on his trip. Instead, he was accompanied by the Russian ambassador to Belarus, Boris Gryzlov, and United Russia party chair, Andrey Turchak. Yury Drakakhrust of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty believes that these circumstances constitute “yet another step in reducing and foiling Belarus’s sovereignty” (Svaboda, July 27). Belarus’s Sovereignty and Political Opposition Risk Losing Relevance

China

  • August 4, 2022. Kailing Xie, Ying Huang, East Asia Forum. Between 24 December 2021 and 22 January 2022, China’s Law on the Protection of Women’s Rights and Interests was opened up to the public so they could offer amendment proposals. This is the third proposed set of amendments since the law was passed in 1992. During this period, the public was able to propose changes to the existing legislation on a government website. Protecting women’s rights in China

China-Afghanistan

  • August 3, 2022. Lilly BlumenthalCaitlin Purdy, and Victoria Bassetti, Brookings. Speculation is mounting that China will take advantage of the power vacuum created by the 2021 U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and seek dominance over that country’s mineral resources, particularly its lithium deposits. These resources play a key role in the global energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable resources. Given its global role in exploiting critical minerals, China’s possible activities in Afghanistan raise both security and good governance challenges to the West. In this piece, we unpack several reasons to be skeptical of near-term Chinese-led investment in Afghanistan’s lithium sector while outlining the broader geopolitical interests that may be driving China’s moves in this space. Chinese investment in Afghanistan’s lithium sector: A long shot in the short term

Gabon

Iran

  • August 3, 2022. Zachary Coles and Nicholas Carl, ISW. Iran may direct its proxies to attack American and partner targets in the Middle East in the coming weeks. Iranian proxy group Ashab al Kahf accused NATO, the UK, and the US of stoking political tensions in Iraq on August 1 and vowed to attack their embassies and military bases in Iraq, Syria, and possibly Jordan. Ashab al Kahf is likely a front group for Iranian proxy Asaib Ahl al Haq (AAH) and possibly other Iranian-backed militias. AAH has likely claimed attacks on US and Turkish military bases under the name Ashab al Kahf since 2019 to generate deniability for its actions. Iranian proxies in Iraq frequently claim attacks under such front groups to complicate attribution and obfuscate their responsibility. Iran Warning Update: Iranian Proxies May Attack US in Response to Iraqi Political Crisis

Kenya

  • August 2, 2022. Afrobarometer. Kenyans overwhelmingly oppose the use of physical discipline against women, the latest Afrobarometer survey shows. Kenyans oppose the use of physical discipline against women, but see gender-based violence as a private matter
  • August 3, 2022. Chatham House. This episode of Africa Aware explores the elections in Kenya on 9 August 2022, in which Kenyans will select a new president and national lawmakers, as well as the governors and assemblies of the country’s 47 counties. First, Waihiga Mwaura discusses the main political groupings and policy issues that voters will decide on. Then Sylvia Katua examines issues around political inclusivity of marginalized groups, including in the context of Kenya’s devolved system. Finally, Mulle Musau assesses the status of electoral preparedness and public confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Africa Aware: Kenya’s 2022 Elections

Myanmar

  • August 3, 2022. Gregory B. Poling, CSIS. The recent executions of four anti-regime activists, including former lawmaker Phyo Zeya Thaw and civil society leader Kyaw Min Yu, known as Ko Jimmy, by the Burmese junta have caused global uproar. Time for Difficult Choices on Myanmar

Papua New Guinea

Russia-Ukraine (on the ground-impact)

  • August 4, 2022. Chatham House. How can Ukraine rebuild while coexisting with Russia? In this final episode of our special series, we speak to Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko and Professor Georgiy Kassianov to find out the answer. War in Ukraine: Rebuilding Ukraine
  • August 4, 2022. , Infosecurity. Ukrainian law enforcers claim to have dismantled a large bot farm used by Russian special services to spread disinformation and propaganda in the country.  Ukraine Shutters Major Russian Bot Farm
  • August 3, 2022. Emanuele Scimia, The Jamestown Foundation. In the lead-up to snap parliamentary elections planned for September 25, Italy’s likely next ruling coalition is already divided on Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine. Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Draghi is a staunch supporter of the Ukrainian fight against the Russians, and Rome’s allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union are concerned that a center-right government will soften Italian opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war. Putin’s War Against Ukraine Divides Italy’s Likely Next Ruling Coalition
  • August 3, 2022. Mykola Vorobiov, The Jamestown Foundation. The war in Ukraine is gaining momentum as neither side is ready for reconciliation, as the conflict continues to escalate. On July 29, the Kremlin claimed that 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), including those captured at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, were killed and dozens were wounded by shelling from the Ukrainian side. The prison where the POWs were held is located in Olenivka village of Donetsk region, currently occupied by Russian military forces (Pravda.com.ua, July 29). As Ukraine Focuses on Retaking Southern Territories, Moscow Raises Stakes
  • August 3, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces are likely using Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine, likely in an effort to degrade Western will to provide military support to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said on August 3 that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which is currently occupied by Russian forces, is “completely out of control” and that “every principle of nuclear safety has been violated” at the plant. He warned that Russian forces are not respecting the physical integrity of the plant and pleaded with Russia and Ukraine to quickly facilitate a visit of IAEA monitors to the complex. Russian Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Head Evgeniy Balitskyi responded that the IAEA was welcome at the plant: “We are ready to show how the Russian military guards it today, and how Ukraine, which receives weapons from the West, uses these weapons, including drones, to attack the nuclear plant, acting like a monkey with a grenade.”. Russian officials are framing Ukraine as irresponsibly using Western-provided weapons and risking nuclear disaster to dissuade Western and other allied states from providing additional military support to Ukraine’s looming southern counteroffensive. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 3

Taiwan

  • August 3, 2022. Chatham House. Experts examine the implications for Taiwan, China and the United States of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island. Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan: What lies ahead for China and the US?
  • August 4, 2022. , The Strategist. The visit to Taiwan by a US congressional delegation led by Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has once again pushed the Taiwan Strait to the front of international attention. It shows Taiwan’s role as a metaphor for fundamental questions about the nature of the international system and whether, for all its aspirations to peace and human progress, it is ultimately a system wrought by the hard power of states, whether China’s or the US’s, in their interests. Beijing will wipe out a vibrant democracy if it seizes control of Taiwan
  • August 4, 2022. Tayfun Ozberk, Naval News. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) promulgated exercise areas surrounding Taiwan in response to Nancy Pelosi’s arrival on the island by aircraft on August 02, 2022. The exercise areas overlap Taiwan’s territorial waters. PLA Navy surrounds Taiwan with a massive naval exercise
  • August 3, 2022. Atlantic Council. She went there. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and other island officials today—despite warnings from China (and some US officials) that the visit could escalate cross-Strait tensions. In response, China announced military drills around Taiwan this week and import restrictions on the island. With Pelosi now wheels-up from Taipei, what’s coming next in the US-China showdown? And how will the trip shake up life in Taiwan? Our experts map out the terrain. The coming aftershocks from Pelosi’s Taiwan trip

USA-Middle East

  • August 3, 2022. Anna PedersonJohn O’Malley and Arona Baigal, CNAS. President Biden’s recent Middle East tour was vital in presenting U.S. foreign policy in the region. Other geopolitical developments including the killing of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, ongoing Iran nuclear negotiations, the state of Afghanistan one year after the United States withdrew troops, and Russia’s growing ties to the region have demonstrated that continued U.S. engagement is vital. Sharper: Middle East

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Counter terrorism-Cybersecurity-Defense-Military-Security-Space

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