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From global think tanks – July 12, 2022

With The Science of Where Magazine

AROUND THE WORLD

Australia

  • July 12, 2022. , The Strategist. The most consequential gap in the climate policies of the Coalition government under Scott Morrison was not its weak commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or its reluctance to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, but rather its neglect of the security threats posed by climate change. Australia must get review of climate-change security risks right

BRICS

  • July 12, 2022. , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. The recent virtual BRICS summit, which brought together the heads of state and government of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, was interesting as much for what didn’t happen as for what did. The two-day gathering was marked by some constructive discussion but also platitudes and pablum, and concluded with a grandly titled but thoroughly anodyne ‘Beijing declaration’. Are the BRICS crumbling?

Europe

  • July 12, 2022. Aura Sabadus, RUSI. While ending reliance on Russian gas may be difficult for Western allies, failing to do so may allow Russia to inflict more harm in the long term. Russia’s European Gas Endgame May Hurt Even More than a Total Curtailment
  • July 11, 2022. Mateusz Kubiak, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 9, Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson announced that his country will return confiscated Nord Stream One turbines to Germany, providing Siemens with a temporary exemption from the existing sanctions regulations (La Presse, July 9). The equipment was seized by Canadian authorities, and the case has been used by Moscow to justify cutting natural gas supplies to Europe. According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov, the return of the turbines should allow Gazprom to boost gas flows via Nord Stream One (1prime.ru, July 8). However, this may only happen after July 21, as the pipeline is annually shut off from July 11 to July 21 for maintenance. Despite Return of Nord Stream One Turbines, Europe Still Fears Winter Gas Shortages

India

  • July 12, 2022. By Niranjan Sahoo, ORF. The multiple crises besetting India’s justice delivery system are related to a large extent to what the Chief Justice calls “dilapidated” infrastructure. Indeed, it is empirically known that there is a positive correlation between adequacy of infrastructure—whether courtrooms, chambers, sanitation facilities, or digital connectivity—and productivity in the delivery of justice. This brief highlights the stark gaps in infrastructure in India’s district and subordinate courts, which struggle with pendency due to an acute shortage of basic infrastructure. It studies the shortcomings of the central scheme launched nearly 30 years ago to address precisely these gaps, and offers recommendations for overcoming the challenges. Improving India’s Justice Delivery System: Why Infrastructure Matters

Indonesia

  • July 12,  2022. Andreas Harsono, HRW. One would hope that an educational institution that learned of sexual assaults on campus would focus on holding perpetrators accountable and preventing further incidents rather than targeting the messenger. Not so the State Islamic Institute in Ambon (Institut Agama Islam Negeri Ambon, IAIN Ambon) in Indonesia’s Maluku province, which instead of recognizing and valuing a student magazine’s groundbreaking and thorough investigation, ordered its shutdown. Indonesian Islamic College Bans Magazine Reporting Sexual Abuse

Iran

  • July 12, 2022. HRW. Iranian authorities’ recent arrests of high-profile critics are part of a fresh crackdown on peaceful dissent, Human Rights Watch said today. The authorities arrested a reformist critic, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and two film directors, Mohammad Rasoulof and Mostafa Al-Ahmad, on July 9, 2022, followed on July 11, by another film director, Jafar Panahi. Iran: Arrest of High-Profile Critics

Israel – Saudi Arabia

  • July 11, 2022. Bruce Riedel, Brookings. Saudi Arabia has taken a complex approach to the recognition of Israel by several Arab countries in the Abraham Accords. It has a long history of clandestine cooperation with Israel against mutual enemies. Recently, it has said public recognition of Israel will come only if there is movement to resolve the Palestinian conflict and create a two-state solution. But the kingdom has tolerated and even abetted the development of diplomatic and military ties between some of its closest allies and Israel. How to understand Israel and Saudi Arabia’s secretive relationship

Japan

  • July 11, 2022. John Nilsson-Wright, Chatham House. While direct attacks on politicians are not unknown in postwar Japan, they are comparatively rare – it has been decades since politicians with a national standing as prominent as Abe have been the subject of such assassination attempts. Shinzo Abe: A confident actor leaves the world stage
  • July 12, 2022. Aurelia George Mulgan, East Asia Forum. Tributes have been flowing for former Japanese prime Minister Shinzo Abe who was assassinated on 8 July. He is being remembered for his many policy achievements both domestic and foreign, for his global leadership and for the warm and memorable relations that he built with past and present world leaders — including Narendra Modi, Malcolm Turnbull, Donald Trump, Joe Biden Jr. and even Xi Jingping. Many key figures, including Vladimir Putin, whom Abe made a special effort to cultivate, have joined the chorus of those publicly mourning his passing. Shinzo Abe’s special legacy
  • July 11, 2022. Christopher B. Johnstone, Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, CSIS. Japan, still in shock after the assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe on July 8, held an election for the House of Councillors (Upper House) on July 10. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito retained a majority in the chamber. The ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, will not face another national election for three years, opening a window of political stability for Kishida to advance a policy agenda emphasizing economic revitalization, increased defense spending, and robust diplomacy with the United States and other partners to address an array of regional and global challenges. Japan’s Upper House Election: Kishida Clears Another Hurdle

NATO – Turkey

  • July 12, 2022. Galip Dalay, Chatham House. With NATO’s new Strategic Concept being designed to address a global security environment defined by the great power competition, it was key for Ankara to ensure that the issue of terrorism was not de-emphasized, and so the fact this remained a major part within it was a win for Turkey. Turkey gains much from NATO, but a rocky road lies ahead

Pacific Islands

Russia – Ukraine

  • July 11, 2022. Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has clearly lost momentum, but the intensity of its multi-prong confrontation with the West keeps rising. Russian military command announced an “operational pause” in Donbas after the hard battles for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, implicitly admitting that a regrouping of battalions, which have not been rotated in four months of fighting, is necessary before the push to Slovyansk (Izvestiya, July 7). Russian Assault on World Order Falters and Fails
  • July 11, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is likely continuing to grant Russian forces access to Belarusian airspace to demonstrate at least nominal support to Russian President Vladimir Putin without risking direct military involvement of Belarusian Armed Forces in operations in Ukraine.Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksiy Gromov previously reported on July 7 that the Belarusian government transferred use of the Pribytki airfield in Gomel Oblast to Russia. Independent Belarusian monitoring organization The Hajun Project similarly reported on July 11 that a Russian Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft flew into Belarusian airspace for the first time since April 4. The Hajun Project noted that the Belarusian government introduced new airspace restrictions along the border with Ukraine where the AWACS aircraft patrolled between July 10 and 11. Taken together, these data points likely indicate that Lukashenko is attempting to provide support to Putin’s war in Ukraine short of direct Belarusian military intervention in an effort to respond to the pressure Putin is likely putting on him. As ISW has previously assessed, the likelihood of direct Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine remains low due to the effect that might have on the stability and even survival of Lukashenko’s regime. Russian Offensive Campaign Update, July 11
  • July 11, 2022. Atlantic Council. It’s the war that was both eminently predictable and roundly unpredicted. If ever there has been a conflict that underscored the urgent need in the policy world for strategic foresight, it’s the one currently raging in Ukraine. For months, our foresight experts have been projecting how the war could break out and, once it did, how it could unfold next. In this latest installment, Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke, and Jeffrey Cimmino revisit their March forecasts for four different scenarios. Four (updated) ways the war in Ukraine might end

South Korea – Indo Pacific

  • July 11, 2022. Seungjoo Lee, East Asia Forum. Strategic competition between the United States and China has dramatically revealed the vulnerabilities of the ideological and institutional foundations of globalisation. The Biden administration is actively promoting the ‘reshoring’ of production to contain China and alleviate supply chain vulnerabilities. It is also fostering high-tech cooperation with allies and partners — a policy from which South Korea has emerged as a key player. South Korea ventures into its Indo-Pacific strategy

Sri Lanka – India

  • July 12, 2022. N. Sathiya Moorthy, ORF. Less than 24 hours after the successful ‘struggle’, or ‘Aragalaya’ in Sinhala that had caused greater political uncertainty than earlier, Indian High Commissioner Gopal Bagalay was sitting with Sri Lankan Agriculture Minister Mahinda Amaraweera, formally handing over a 40,000-tonne consignment of chemical fertilisers that India was supplying as a part of the line-of-credit to help tide over the island-nation’s unprecedented food crisis, which was only a part of the continuing economic calamity. According to reports, the minister was waiting for the formal diplomatic meeting before putting in his papers. What do Sri Lanka’s protests mean for India?

USA

USA – Middle East

  • July 12, 2022. Tobias Borck, RUSI. The global energy crisis and tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme loom large as the US president travels to meet Middle Eastern leaders. Biden Goes to the Middle East

TOPICS

Cities

Cybersecurity

Defense, Military, Space

Digital & Tech

Energy

  • July 12, 2022. World Nuclear News. NuScale Power and Paragon Energy Solutions have signed a patent licence agreement that will enable potential widespread use of the highly integrated protection system (HIPS) platform. The HIPS platform is a protection system architecture jointly developed by NuScale and Rock Creek Innovations, a company acquired by Paragon in December 2021. NuScale to make SMR safety platform widely available : Corporate
  • July 12, 2022. World Nuclear News. Tularosa Basin Range Services (TBRS) has been awarded a contract worth up to about USD3 billion by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) to manage and operate the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) transuranic waste disposal site in New Mexico. The contract replaces that held by Nuclear Waste Partnership, which expires at the end of September. Bechtel affiliate awarded WIPP management contract : Waste & Recycling
  • July 12, 2022. World Nuclear News. Westinghouse Electric Company has signed a contract with Energoatom to provide AP1000 plant technical information to help with the Ukrainian firm’s feasibility study for the two new reactors planned for the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant. Westinghouse and Energoatom push ahead on AP1000 plant licence process : Corporate

Global

  • July 12, 2022. , The Strategist. World politics has reached an ominous phase of polarisation. The struggle between the US-led democracies and the Russo-Chinese-led autocracies primarily underpins this development. Yet there’s also another dangerous dimension to it: the emergence of close relations between the autocratic powers and such extremist theocratic forces as the Taliban in Afghanistan. The West is facing a new alliance of autocracies and theocracies
  • July 12, 2022. Valdai Discussion Club. On July 11, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the meeting of the G20 foreign ministers.  Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, acted as moderator. He said, that this year, due to geopolitical problems, the work of the G20 had become too politicised, but this did not cancel the usual agenda of the forum, which this time focused on the formation of a global healthcare architecture, as well as the digital and green transformation. G20: Important World Issues and Attempts by the West to Impose Its Narrative
  • July 11, 2022. Brookings. Douglas Rediker, founding partner of International Capital Strategies and a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings, discusses a range of global economic challenges that G7 leaders tackled in their recent summit in Germany. These include a U.S. proposal to cap the price of Russian energy exports (and why Rediker is skeptical about it); Russia’s default on sovereign debt and the risk of debt default in developing countries; the role of Chinese lending in developing economies; and the enormous cost of rebuilding Ukraine and who might bear it. Post-G7 summit, a time of great uncertainty in the global economy

Health & Digital

  • July 11, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. The Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) has awarded nearly $8 million to expand the INSIGHT Clinical Research Network, a Weill Cornell-led database containing EHR and clinical trial data from 15 million patients at five of New York City’s most prominent academic medical centers. NY Health Consortium Receives $8M to Expand Patient Data Network
  • July 11, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. The Army wants to dramatically change the way it provides health care to soldiers by accelerating research in a variety of emerging technologies, from using quantum computing that can better detect and treat chronic illnesses to developing synthetic blood, according to newly released plans.  Army’s New Plan to ‘Transform’ Soldier Health Care with Technology
  • July 11, 2022. Samantha Lai, Brookings. Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency orders and pandemic-era flexibilities for telehealth are quickly expiring, thus ending the many conveniences of telehealth that people benefited from. Moreover, the digital divide reared its ugly head, and there are thousands of citizens—especially those on the wrong side of health equity—who do not have either broadband or an internet-enabled device to partake in this digital health care economy. TechTank Podcast Episode 48: How do we center equity in the future of telehealth?