Categorie
Marco Emanuele Pensiero Strategico Progetto di civiltà

From global think tanks – July 6, 2022

AROUND THE WORLD

Algeria – Morocco

  • July 5, 2022. By Agnes Helou, Breaking Defense. While it may not make the rounds in Washington as one of the big geopolitical rivalries of the era,  tensions between Morocco and Algeria are real, and have escalated in recent years thanks to a dispute over the Western Sahara, which Morocco claims to be its own territory, while Algeria backs the Tindouf-based Polisario Front rebel group. In North Africa, a fighter jet arms race, with Russia and the US on either side

Australia – China

  • July 5, 2022. By Lisa Toohey, Markus Wagner, Weihuan Zhou, East Asia Forum. The Australia–China relationship is in need of a reset, especially on the trade front. The change in the Australian government and China’s official reaction to the election provides a unique opportunity for the two nations to rebuild cordial relations and prevent further fractious exchanges. A road to rapprochement for Australia–China relations

Australia – Pacific Islands Countries

  • July 6, 2022. By  and , The Strategist. Pacific island countries may halt the use of Australian-donated patrol boats with defects including cracking in the coupling between the engine and the gearbox, and a fault in the vessels’ exhaust system. It’s a blow to the $2.1 billion maritime program that’s the centrepiece of our security assistance to the region. In fairness, all vessels have teething issues. It would be remarkable if there weren’t any problems with the Guardian-class boats. Wong leads new era of engagement with Pacific island states

Ecowas

  • July 6, 2022. By US Department of State. The United States is encouraged by the outcomes of the most recent ECOWAS Summit, held on July 3.  We welcome the agreement between ECOWAS and Mali on a 24-month transition timeline starting in March 2022. On the ECOWAS Summit

Europe

  • July 5, 2022. By Grégory Claeys, Lionel Guetta-Jeanrenaud, Bruegel. Spreads versus German yields for the euro-area countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios have increased significantly since September 2021. Even if spreads are not yet at the worrying levels of previous stress episodes (and have decreased since the European Central Bank’s 15 June announcement that it is finally working on a new fragmentation tool), this increase could still represent a risk at a time when growth is slowing quickly because of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and when many countries have historically high levels of debt after the highly expansive fiscal policy put in place during the COVID-19 crisis. How rate increases could impact debt ratios in the euro area’s most-indebted countries

Europe – Ukraine

  • July 6, 2022. By , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. In September 2002, I published a commentary in The Wall Street Journal entitled ‘Kyiv has a case for the EU.’ I was a first-term member of the European Parliament and, I believe, the first elected official anywhere to openly support Ukraine’s inherent right to future European Union membership. Nearly 20 years later, the EU has at long last decided to grant Ukraine candidate status. The move is both momentous and fully justified. Ukraine’s case for EU membership

Georgia – NATO

  • July 5, 2022. By Giorgi Menabde, The Jamestown Foundation. On June 28–30, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili took part in the ceremonial portions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Madrid, Spain. In general, this latest gathering of Alliance leaders not only did not bring about anything new or substantial for Georgia, but it confirmed the steady weakening of the South Caucasus country’s Euro-Atlantic integration process (1tv.ge, June 29). Georgia-NATO: The Pause ‘Deepens’

India

  • July 4, 2022. By PK Khup Hangzo, VIF. North-east India has been witnessing unusually heavy rainfall since the beginning of May. That has resulted in one of the worst floods ever recorded in Assam. As of 3 July, flood has affected 1,835,551 people in 26 out of the state’s 35 districts and it submerged 471.98 square kilometers (47,198.87 hectares) of cropland. Floods in Assam: The Case for Rethinking Adaptation

Japan

  • July 6, 2022. By Rajaram Panda, VIF. With less than a year in office, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida now confronts domestic political challenge when the country’s Upper House goes to the polls on 10 July in which his ruling coalition government expects to get a majority, which shall help Kishida to implement some of his long cherished goals as law-making shall be a smooth affair. According to an Asahi Shimbun survey, the ruling coalition expects to gain some seats from the opposition Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party). In a house of 247 members, 125 seats shall be open to contest and the LDP-Komeito coalition hopes to win close to 63 seats as the opposition is fragmented and there is no electoral cooperation among the opposition camp. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely to lose some of its present 23 seats. Fresh Challenges for Kishida as Upper House Elections are held on 10 July

Philippines

  • July 6, 2022. By  Sandra Seno-Alday, East Asia Forum. In June 2022, the Philippines will sweep the Marcos family back into power after they were unceremoniously ousted 36 years ago. Marcos Junior ran for president with a message of unity. But social media chatter in the lead up to the election reflected a desire not for unity but for a return to the ‘golden age’ of the Marcos Senior presidency. Another golden age of growth in the Philippines?

Russia – Ukraine

  • July 5, 2022. By Arvind Gupta, VIF. The Ukraine conflict has been a turning point in both geopolitics and geoeconomics. Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director VIF takes a purview on the geostrategic implications of the Ukraine conflict, delving into the global food and energy crisis, impact on carbon commitments and climate change, and pondering on possible course of policy ahead for India with Prerna Gandhi. Geostrategic Implications of Ukraine Conflict
  • July 5, 2022. By Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation.  On the Donbas battlefields, Russian troops still strive to advance, but in the global arena of confrontation with the collective West, Russia keeps losing ground. A sequence of heavy blows breached Russian defensive geopolitical positions last week, and Moscow’s attempts at counterstrikes only aggravated the sustained damage. The first major setback for Russia was the commitment made by the G7 to support Ukraine in its struggle against aggression for as long as it takes; but it was still possible for some Russian pundits to argue that the gathering in Bavarian Alps was short on practical results (Rosbalt, June 28). Western leaders then proceeded to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Madrid, however; and there was certainly no shortage of detailed, binding and material decisions there (Novaya Gazeta, July 1). Even mainstream commentaries from Moscow-based think tanks had to acknowledge an unprecedented level of Western solidarity fostered under the United States’ unwavering leadership (Valdaiclub.com, July 1). Seeking to Crack Western Unity, Putin Sinks Russian Economy
  • July 5, 2022. By Karolina Hird, George Barros, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian state that survives the Russian attack despite Russian military setbacks and rhetoric hinting at a reduction in war aims following those defeats.Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated on July 5 that the Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals of protecting civilians from “genocide,” “denazifying” and demilitarizing Ukraine, and obliging Ukraine to be permanently neutral between Russia and NATO—almost exactly restating the goals Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in his February 24 speech justifying the war. Putin had stated that the operation aimed to protect civilians from humiliation and genocide, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, and prosecute genocidal perpetrators. Patrushev’s explicit restatement of Putin‘s initial objectives, nearly five months later, strongly indicates that the Kremlin does not consider recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast sufficient to accomplish the initial goals of the “special operation,” supporting ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin has significant territorial aspirations beyond the Donbas. Patrushev’s statement suggests that Russian military leadership will continue to push for advances outside Donetsk and Luhansk blasts and that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 5

UK 

USA

  • July 6, 2022. By  Quinta Jurecic, Lawfare. Again and again in recent years, current and former Justice Department officials—along with academics, journalists, and other commentators—have struggled to explain to the public the importance of Justice Department independence: the idea that the powers of law enforcement should not be wielded as a tool of political power. Donald Trump attacked this norm again and again during his presidency—asking the FBI to back off its investigation into his national security adviser, Michael Flynn; working to undermine the Mueller investigation; demanding that the Justice Department investigate Hillary Clinton; and on and on. His efforts to use the department to help him hold on to power after the 2020 election were one more instance of that long-running trend. Why the Jan. 6 Committee Is Talking About Justice Department Independence

USA – Ukraine

  • July 5, 2022. By Conor Savoy, Janina Staguhn, CSIS. Since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February, the United States has provided unprecedented levels of security, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. This assistance reflects the United States’ remarkable commitment to a country fighting for its right to exist as a sovereign democratic country. In two separate packages, Congress has appropriated $54 billion in assistance to Ukraine. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the United States has already allocated more money for assistance to Ukraine in the past five months than it did on a yearly basis during the height of the Marshall Plan. Balancing Oversight and Risk: Transparency for U.S. Foreign Assistance to Ukraine

Uzbekistan

  • July 5, 2022. By Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. At the end of June, Uzbekistan’s central government published the draft of a new constitution that would strip the autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan of the right to secede, which heretofore had been guaranteed in the existing basic law. As a result, on July 1, thousands of ethnic Karakalpaks (a Turkic group similar linguistically and culturally to Kazakhs) took to the streets in protest, prompting Tashkent first to send in more soldiers to the region, which has some two million people and occupies a third of Uzbekistan’s territory, and then to declare martial law in the autonomy for the next month. These actions were a clear sign that Karakalpak nationalism is growing in strength and that Tashkent is worried. How successful the authorities’ responses will be remains unclear. Indeed, such use of force may prove counterproductive. Moreover, because new oil fields have been discovered in Karakalpakstan and the region was once part of Kazakhstan, this new display of popular anger has the potential to become an international problem, with either Russia or Kazakhstan moving in to exploit it. Notably, Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has already conceded as much, warning yesterday (July 4) of the danger of outside intervention in Karakalpakstan (Podrobno.uz, July 4). Tashkent Cracks Down Hard on Massive Protests in Karakalpakstan

TOPICS

Cybersecurity

  • July 5, 2022. By Adam Mazmanian, Nextgov. The Department of Defense is offering $110,000 in bug bounties for flaws in its public-facing systems through July 11. The effort is part of the Hack the Pentagon’s vulnerability disclosure program managed by HackerOne. The company announced on its website that findings of high- and critical severity- level vulnerabilities are eligible for cash payouts. DOD rings in Independence Day with bug bounties

Defense . Military – Space

  • July 6, 2022. By Naval News. Boeing, ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik-GmbH and Lufthansa Technik signed a three-party agreement on July 5, 2022 that reinforces joint efforts to support Germany’s new P-8A Poseidon fleet. With the new agreement, Boeing, ESG and Lufthansa Technik will be the team responsible for executing the P-8A sustainment program in Germany. Boeing, ESG and Lufthansa Technik Expand Partnership to Support German P-8A fleet
  • July 6, 2022. By Naval News. The Royal Australian Navy’s Supply-class replenishment oiler, HMAS Supply, has fired live for the first time with the Phalanx close-in weapon system (CIWS). The event marked the first Phalanx firing in her class. HMAS Supply carries out the first firing with Phalanx CIWS

Digital & Tech

  • July 5, 2022. By , Bruegel. France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, has compared crypto markets to the wild west. At the end of last week, in the last moments of France’s presidency of the Council of the European Union, negotiators from the EU institutions announced a provisional deal on the Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regulation, which is intended to set standards for service providers and those that issue stablecoins, with a view to protecting consumers. The New York Fed has also issued guidelines covering similar areas for the United States, aiming to deal with an increasingly significant but also risky part of the financial system. Is MiCA the end of the crypto wild-west?
  • July 6, 2022. By Nina Xiang, East Asia Forum. The metaverse — a concept that initially appeared in Neal Stephenson’s 1992 science fiction novel Snow Crash — has been described as the next chapter of the internet. It will allow people to experience the internet in three dimensions, eventually engaging all five of their senses with immersive technologies. In contrast to today’s cyberspace which is centred on the exchange of information, the metaverse has been called the internet of experience. Metaverse — the latest chapter of the Splinternet?
  • July 5, 2022. By Ross Wilkers, Nextgov. The General Services Administration has restarted the process for its Polaris governmentwide IT solutions contract vehicle and reopened the portal for submitting proposals. GSA Puts Polaris Contract Back in Motion

Digital Health

Energy & Climate Action

  • July 6, 2022. By George Zachmann, Bruegel. The transition to climate neutrality requires the reallocation of production factors from polluting activities to non-polluting activities. The main push for this reallocation will come from governmental decarbonisation targets that are translated into stringent climate policy tools, such as carbon pricing and emissions standards. But the complex process of recombining production factors will require the coordination of millions of individuals and firms. The efficiency of this recombination process will be a main driver of the cost of the transition. The role of competition in the transition to climate neutrality
  • July 6, 2022. By , The Strategist. Halfway between Alice Springs and Darwin is a 10,000–square kilometre property formerly used by the Packer family as a cattle station. In the 20th century, this land was part of Australia’s vast and economically vital agricultural industry. Now, it’s set to become a key element of a new Australian economic vision. The land is flagged for a massive project that’s attracted support from prominent Australian tech billionaires and has been assessed by Infrastructure Australia as ready for investment. Bold steps needed to power Australia and the region

Global 

  • July 5, 2022. By Samir Saran, Jhanvi Tripathi, ORF. India takes over the presidency of the group in December. To live up to the potential of this opportunity, it must choose a policy direction to focus on continuity, incorporate green and digital transitions, and recognise the realities of a post-pandemic world. What will India’s G20 presidency focus on?
  • July 6, 2022. By , Bruegel. In September 2021, I warned against inflation resulting from over ten years of ultra-soft monetary policies, in particular, the massive asset purchase programmes that have built up record-high central bank balance sheets. Expansionary fiscal policies have added to this build-up. Both the purchases and the policies have been continued for too long despite a change in the macroeconomic environment. Central banks have been too slow in responding to higher inflation
  • July 6, 2022. By US Department of State. Secretary Blinken will travel to Bali, Indonesia, to attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, where he will reinforce the U.S. commitment to working with key economies to advance U.S. interests and address global challenges.  These challenges include: reducing food and energy insecurity; combating the climate crisis; tackling COVID -19 and strengthening global health security; and addressing the global consequences of confronting Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine.  In addition to attending G20-related engagements, the Secretary will hold a bilateral meeting with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.  Secretary Blinken will also meet with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss the U.S.-PRC bilateral relationship and global issues of concern to the two countries.  The United States and G20: Building a More Peaceful, Stable and, Prosperous World Together