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From think tanks – July 9, 2022

with The Science of Where Magazine

AROUND THE WORLD

Balkans

  • July 8, 2022. By Margarita Assenova, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s war on Ukraine has prompted the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union to examine current security vulnerabilities in Europe and find a way to address them. One of the major areas of focus has been the Balkans, and three outstanding security problems plague this still-conflict-prone region: Bulgaria’s veto on North Macedonia’s EU accession, which indirectly also impacts Albania; unsettled relations between Serbia and Kosovo; and the threat of partition of Bosnia-Herzegovina if the Serb entity withdraws from the federal institutions, as it has announced. The Balkans Are Heating up Again

Europe

Europe – Libya

Hizbullah – Israel

  • July 7, 2022. By Shimon Shapira, JCPA. Hizbullah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah is raising the bar of the conflict with Israel. On July 2, 2022, Hizbullah launched three drones at Israel’s Karish gas rig in the eastern Mediterranean that were intercepted in Israel’s economic waters. Hizbullah Raises the Bar of the Conflict with Israel

Israel

  • July 5, 2022. By Meir Elran, INSS. The establishment of the Israeli Guard was announced recently, based on lessons learned from the May 2021 clashes between Arab and Jewish Israelis. Comprising police officers and volunteers, the new body’s main purpose will be to provide the Border Police with much-needed reinforcement. This is an essential, welcome measure, no less important than the quantitative and qualitative additions to the regular police. Yet no less essential is the establishment of a genuine National Guard, which will be able to provide effective assistance in all emergency situations and mass disasters. An Israeli National Guard?

Japan

  • July 8, 2022. By Robert Ward, IISS. The life of Japan’s longest-serving prime minister was tragically cut short on the morning of 8 July. Abe Shinzo: the legacy of one of Japan’s most consequential post-war prime ministers
  • July 8, 2022. By Colin Clark, Breaking Defense. The grim news of former Japanese Prime Minister’s Shinzo Abe’s death at the hands of an assassin rocketed around the Pacific this afternoon, sparking sorrow and encomiums for perhaps Japan’s best-known politician of the last 50 years. Abe assassination could have ramifications for Japan’s defense posture
  • July 8, 2022. By Tara Copp, Defense One. In 2014, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pushed through the cornerstone of what some experts said was his most important legacy: convincing Japan to ease into the idea that its pacifist post-World War II-era military policies had to evolve to best protect it from a rising China.  Abe’s Unfinished Legacy: Leading Japan and its Military to Confront Modern Threats
  • July 8, 2022. By Matthew P. Goodman, CSIS. It is difficult to make sense of the shocking news of the assassination of Japan’s former prime minister Shinzo Abe. I lived in Japan for more than 10 years and can barely remember a media report about gun violence there. Moreover, Japan’s political culture in recent decades has generally been peaceful and civil, and such a violent act is unthinkable. Shinzo Abe’s Legacy as Champion of the Global Economic Order
  • July 8, 2022. By Christopher B. Johnstone, Nicholas Szechenyi, Yuko Nakano, CSIS. Former prime minister Shinzo Abe, one of Japan’s most powerful politicians, died today after being shot while campaigning ahead of a parliamentary election. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida mourned Abe’s passing and announced that the election scheduled for July 10 would go forward after the attack he characterized as barbaric and a threat to democracy. President Biden issued a statement praising Abe as a champion of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Abe was Japan’s longest serving prime minister and a transformational figure, the most important Japanese leader in a generation. He stepped down in 2020 after presiding over a window of political stability in which he introduced strategies to strengthen Japan’s economic competitiveness, defense capabilities, and global leadership role based fundamentally on close ties with the United States. The Assassination of Shinzo Abe
  • July 8, 2022. By Mireya Solís and Adrianna Pita, Brookings. “Prime Minister Abe now becomes a really tragic figure in Japanese history, but also a very consequential leader that has left an indelible mark in Japan.” Following the stunning assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Mireya Solís describes Abe’s policy legacies, the role he continued to play in shaping the direction of the country, and the ramifications of his assassination for Japan’s politics. What does Shinzo Abe’s assassination mean for Japan?
  • July 8, 2022. By Atlantic Council. Condolences from global leaders poured in Friday after former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated at a political rally in the city of Nara. He was 67 years old. Shinzo Abe’s murder has shocked the world. What legacy will he leave behind? – Atlantic Council

NATO

North Korea

Pacific Islands

  • July 9, 2022. By Denghua Zhang, Michael O’Keefe, East Asia Forum. The Pacific islands are receiving more attention from other countries, with high-level delegations from the United StatesJapanAustralia and New Zealand visiting the region over the past five months. Alarmed by China’s rise, traditional powers are now stepping up their engagement with the region to actively compete with China. Pacific Islands benefit from geostrategic competition

Russia – Ukraine

  • July 7, 2022. By Gustav Gressel, ECFR. Russia is the first state to use nuclear threats as part of a war of expansion. Unless it loses in Ukraine, the world will become a far more dangerous place. Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
  • July 8, 2022. By Valery Dzutsati, The Jamestown Foundation. The Russian State Duma (lower chamber of parliament) deputy from Kurgan, Aleksandr Iltyakov, launched a surprise blistering verbal attack against the governor of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, for the latter’s ostentatious visits to the war zone in Ukraine. Russian Deputy Rebukes Kadyrov for His Flashy Visits to Ukraine War Zone
  • July 8, 2022. By Kateryna Stepanenko, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros, ISW. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces are not conducting an operational pause as of July 8 and are continuing to shell settlements and deploy additional tank units to Donbas. Haidai’s statement likely reflects confusion about the meaning of the expression “operational pause” and how such a “pause” actually manifests on the ground in a war.US military doctrine considers the role of operational pauses in warfighting and campaigning in some detail. It notes that “Normally, operational pauses are planned to regenerate combat power or augment sustainment and forces for the next phase.” It observes that “The primary drawback to operational pauses is the risk of forfeiting strategic or operational initiative.” It therefore recommends that “If pauses are necessary, the [commander] can alternate pauses among components to ensure continuous pressure on the enemy or adversary through offensive actions by some components while other components pause.” Soviet military theory regarded operational pauses in a similar fashion—sometimes necessary, but always dangerous. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8

UK

USA

USA – Middle East

  • July 3, 2022. By Tamir Hayman, Eldad Shavit, INSS. President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains. President Biden’s Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel
  • July 8, 2022. By Daniel L. Byman, Brookings. As President Joe Biden prepares to travel to the Middle East, his administration faces several challenges in its relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other regional (non-treaty) allies. At the most basic level, the United States and these allies do not share the same priorities. Biden’s difficult task: Reviving US partnerships in the Middle East

TOPICS

Cybersecurity, Disinformation, Propaganda

Defense, Military, Space

Digital & Tech

  • July 8, 2022. By , Center for Data Innovation. This week’s list of top data news highlights covers July 2, 2022 to July 8, 2022 and includes articles on building a smart city and using an AI system to detect rip currents. 10 Bits: The Data News Hotlist
  • July 6, 2022. By , Center for Data Innovation. The Center for Data Innovation spoke with Mait Müntel, CEO of Lingvist, a global startup that uses algorithms to improve the classroom language learning experience. Müntel discussed how some of Lingvist’s technologies originated from nuclear physics data science work.  5 Q’s for Mait Müntel, CEO of Lingvist
  • July 7, 2022. By , Center for Data Innovation. The United Kingdom’s recently unveiled Online Safety Bill seeks to protect Internet users from various types of harm online by imposing new legal obligations on social media platforms, search engines, and other user-generated content services. The Center for Data Innovation convened advocates and opponents of the legislation to discuss its provisions and potential effects on encrypted communications and online anonymity.  Event Recap: What Will Be the Impact of the UK’s Online Safety Bill on Encryption and Anonymity Online ?
  • July 9, 2022. By Cheng Wei Swee, East Asia Forum. Asia’s digital economy has grown significantly in recent years, driven by factors such as national digitalisation efforts and COVID-19-induced changes in the use of digital platforms. The Malaysia Digital Economy Blueprint, for instance, aims to transform the country into a technology-driven nation by building digital infrastructure and driving digital transformation in the public sector. To maximise growth, policymakers must establish a robust understanding of the economic benefits of digital transformation, what drives the gains, the potential challenges to growth and how they might be overcome. Investing in the skills to accelerate equitable digital development
  • July 8, 2022. By Alexandra Kelley, Nextgov. Leaders at the Transportation Security Administration and the Airports Council International Europe publicly endorsed a new collaboration to implement open architecture software in airport security systems. TSA Collaborates with European Security, Manufacturers To Upgrade Security Tech
  • July 8, 2022. By  Natalie Alms, Nextgov. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wants more technologists to help the agency understand and regulate the technologies cropping up in the consumer financial marketplace. CFPB Expands Technologist Hiring Program

Energy & Climate Action

  • July 7, 2022. By Michael Moran, The Breakthrough Institute. When, back in 2009, the world learned that the three leading financial ratings agencies, Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P Global, were earning lavish fees for conferring their AAA+ brand on exceptionally risky mortgage-backed securities (MBSs), many expressed (or at least feigned) outrage. Is ESG the Future or A Replay of the…
  • July 6, 2022. By The Breakthrough Institute. Leadership in new nuclear technologies will powerfully benefit America’s energy future. Advanced nuclear reactors are versatile, reliable, long-lasting, land-efficient, resource-efficient, geopolitically secure, and scalable sources of clean energy. Bold investments in advanced nuclear technologies in the United States will advance technological innovation, secure US leadership in international nuclear markets, and support national energy security and electricity grid resilience, all while improving environmental health and accelerating US climate action. Advancing Nuclear Energy
  • July 8, 2022. By  Frank Konkel, Nextgov. According to the weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the total financial impacts of extreme weather events over the past five years—more than $740 billion—have been the most costly on record. Energy Awards $14 Million to Improve Climate Change Modeling

Global 

Health & Digital