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Marco Emanuele Pensiero Strategico

Geostrategic Diary – June 10, 2022 a.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

THE SCIENCE OF WHERE

  • June 10, 2022. By Este Geraghty, Esri. I recently completed moderating my first LinkedIn Live discussion on a topic near and dear to my heart – Health Equity and Leading through Policy & Technology. The panel discussion was so rich and inspiring that I wanted to capture the highlights in a blog to share with everyone. Still, if you have the time to watch our 37-minute chat, you’re more than welcome to see the recording herePearls of Wisdom: Experts Discuss Health Equity and Leading through Policy and Technology

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

DIGITAL, TECH, CYBER

  • June 10, 2022. By  and , The Strategist. After nearly four years, the new government has reinstalled a dedicated minister for cybersecurity. Clare O’Neil will hold the reins, as well as running the (now slightly shrunk) mega-portfolio of Home Affairs. Six cybersecurity challenges for Australia’s new government
  • June 9, 2022. By Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A new report from KLAS Research found that a majority of healthcare organizations reported better and faster processes, improved clinician and patient experience, and reduced costs while using Amazon Web Services (AWS). Healthcare Orgs Report Improved Processes, Patient Experience with AWS
  • June 9, 2022. By Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. SNOMED International announced a five-year partnership with the non-profit global research collaborative Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) to open new opportunities for healthcare research communities. SNOMED Strikes Partnership to Support Healthcare Research Opportunities
  • June 9, 2022. By Peter Swire, Lawfare. On June 3, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce posted a press releaselegislative language, and a section-by-section analysis for a federal online privacy bill, the American Data Privacy and Protection Act (ADPPA), with both bipartisan and bicameral support. It’s always a good bet that broad privacy legislation will fail to pass, and any law is difficult to pass in this Congress. With that said, the new bill language is significant for at least two reasons. The Bipartisan, Bicameral Privacy Proposal Is a Big Deal
  • June 9, 2022. By Jim Dempsey, Lawfare. Legislation approved on June 8 by the U.S. House of Representatives to address the cybersecurity of medical devices may offer a good model for a sector-by-sector approach to cybersecurity regulation. The bill illustrates the complexities and balancing act required of regulatory efforts in this space. In particular, the measure  suggests a way to solve a conundrum at the center of cybersecurity policy: how to translate a general statutory or common law mandate to provide “reasonable” security into specific, technically sound controls. At the same time, it raises questions about how to ensure that such controls are prioritized, adaptable, and enforced. Medical Device Security Offers Proving Ground for Cybersecurity Action
  • June 9, 2022. By Alicia WanlessKamya Yadav, Lawfare. Transparency reporting and data sharing are hot topics. Both are seen as holy grails to unlock the mysteries of the information environment. And both are often conflated with each other. This lack of clarity in definitions makes it challenging to draft much-need regulation to help drive either concept forward in practice. As regulations like the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) and the Platform Accountability and Transparency Act (PATA) in the United States move forward, perhaps it’s time to stop and ask—do we have the right words to succeed? Indeed, neither of these draft laws defines transparency, transparency reporting or qualified data. What Do Transparency and Data Sharing Really Mean?
  • June 9, 2022. By Global Times. Chinese scientists have developed a multimode-fused spiking neuron (MFSN) array that can sense different shapes, temperatures and weights just like people’s multisensory perception. It can contribute to the development of highly intelligent robotics in future. Chinese scientists make breakthrough in push toward intelligent robotics
  • June 9, 2022. By Ajay AgrawalJoshua S. Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, Brookings. Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decisionmaking and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decisionmaking (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decisionmaking among different actors in an organization. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase. Prediction machines, insurance, and protection: An alternative perspective on AI’s role in production

AROUND THE WORLD

Afghanistan

  • June 10, 2022. By HRW. Taliban security forces in northern Afghanistan’s Panjshir province have unlawfully detained and tortured residents accused of association with an opposition armed group, Human Rights Watch said today. Afghanistan: Taliban Torture Civilians in Panjshir
  • June 9, 2022. By Rhea Sinha, ORF. The Afghans make up the third-largest refugee population in the world after Syrians and Venezuelans. There are an estimated 2.6 million registered Afghan refugees globally, of which 2.2 million reside in Iran and Pakistan alone. Afghanistan has returned to one of the darkest times in its history. No place to call home: The plight of Afghans

China

  • June 9, 2022. By Gianluca Zapponini, Formiche. Prosegue l’ondata di revisionismo industriale nel Dragone, dopo due anni di repressione spietata sulle big tech. Nel 2020 Pechino fece fallire l’Ipo del secolo, che doveva portare il braccio finanziario di Alibaba in Borsa. Ora i lockdown, il rallentamento del Pil e la fuga dei capitali hanno fatto cambiare idea a qualcuno. Contrordine cinese, ora Ant deve andare in Borsa
  • June 9, 2022. By Alice Dawkins and Luke Hurst, East Asia Forum. Human rights allegations have moved large portions of China’s renewables sector off the table for investors bound by economic, social and governance (ESG) frameworks. Polysilicon — a crucial component in the production of solar panels — has fallen under a particularly dark reputational cloud. But a new document from a high-level coalition of Chinese ministries indicates that the human element that made polysilicon production so problematic will be removed from the supply chain by 2025. Economics and ethics reshape Chinese solar
  • June 9, 2022. By Cheng Li, China-US Focus. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has consistently declared that the “equality of men and women” should be a key feature that distinguishes the new Communist state from “old China.” Prejudice––and discrimination—against women in Chinese Confucian society undoubtedly dies hard. But the Mao-era slogan, “Women hold up half the sky,” seemed to reaffirm that the improvement of the socio-economic status of women in the PRC should be considered “one of the least controversial of legacies” of CCP rule, as a BBC reporter observed almost a decade ago. The Reshuffling Report

China – Latin America

Europe

  • June 9, 2022. By Otto Lanzavecchia, Formiche. Se i Ventisette vogliono svilupparsi e competere con le grandi superpotenze, non possono permettersi anelli deboli. L’ultimo rapporto del think tank valuta, settore per settore, i contributi di ogni Paese per la sovranità europea. Italia nella media, meglio in difesa e peggio in tecnologia. Sufficiente in difesa, rimandata in tecnologia. La pagella Ecfr sull’Ue

Georgia

India

  • June 10, 2022. By Shivangi Seth, The Interpreter. The coup in Myanmar, a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all occurring in the last 18 months, have each underscored that women bear a disproportionate burden in conflict. Together, these events should comprise a wake-up call – again – for governments to prioritise the Women, Peace and Security agenda. Unanimously adopted by the United Nations Security Council in 2000 with the passing of Resolution 1325, the WPS agenda aims to protect women from sexual violence, increase their participation in peace processes and strengthen conflict-prevention capabilities. India’s inconsistent adherence to the Women, Peace and Security agenda
  • June 9, 2022. By Ramanath Jha, ORF. Over the years, those studying the pitiable state of municipal finances in India have consistently pointed out the dire need to shore up the fiscal health of municipal bodies. These entreaties have not had positive results, as the situation of urban local bodies (ULBs) has gone from bad to worse. While inter-governmental transfers to ULBs as a proportion of national GDP were always low (around 1 percent in the 1960s), this has been declining progressively with the passing decades, now standing at around 0.45 percent. We, therefore, have a situation where on the one hand, the contribution of cities to the national economy has been steadily rising, and on the other, the central and state contribution to the ULBs has been progressively declining. This is in sharp contrast to the United States (US), Brazil, South Africa and Russia, that share 15, 8, 6.9, and 6.5 percent of the national GDP with city governmentsThe curious case of central and state government properties in cities

Indonesia

  • June 10, 2022. By Deasy Simandjuntak, East Asia Forum. After months of speculation, President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo announced in April that Indonesia’s 2024 elections would not be postponed. Speculations of postponement had circulated after the Indonesian parliament’s controversial plans to extend the presidential tenure, which have since been doused. Looking ahead to Indonesia’s 2024 elections

Israel

  • June 9, 2022. By Amichai Stein, Atlantic Council. “Netanyahu is back.” If you ask almost every member of the Israeli coalition government whether this comment will become a reality and former Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will become prime minister again, they will tell you that it is a matter of when, not if. Israel, guess who’s back? Netanyahu is back again

Japan

  • June 10, 2022. By Ryosuke Hanada, The Interpreter. Michael Green’s examination of Japan’s foreign and security policy in the 21st century elegantly evaluates what was an eight-year effort under Abe Shinzo during his second stint as prime minister to realign Japan’s institutions and international relationships, especially its alliance with the United States. Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzo is an important and comprehensive volume that builds on Green’s earlier book about the history of America’s engagement in Asia. Rather than merely browsing the short-term achievements of the Abe administration, the book places Abe in the context of the long history of Japan’s foreign and security policy, beginning what Green argues to be “a new era in Japanese statecraft”. How the Abe era reshaped Japan’s foreign and security policy

Malaysia

  • June 10, 2022. By Al Jazeera. Malaysia has confirmed it will abolish the mandatory death penalty, which is currently used in a number of offences, including murder and “terrorism”, and leave judges to decide the appropriate punishment. Malaysia to abolish mandatory death penalty

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue

  • June 10, 2022. By Satoru Nagao, ORF. Since the 2000s, the security situation around Japan has changed as China has escalated its activities in the Indo-Pacific area. As such, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has an important role to play in the resolution of this issue. This brief seeks to understand the features of China’s territorial expansion, how the Quad can respond to this situation, and what issues it should anticipate in the future. India, Japan, and the Dragon’s Fire: Making the Quad Work

Russia – Ukraine (on the ground)

  • June 10, 2022. By Al Jazeera. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 107th day, we take a look at the main developments. Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 107
  • June 10, 2022. By , The Strategist. The death, destruction and disruption caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine suggest that short-term savings achieved by running down defence capabilities in peacetime can incur huge costs in the longer run. The cost of investing in military capabilities to deter coercive authoritarian regimes could be far cheaper than the costs of war. Adding up the global costs of Putin’s war
  • June 10, 2022. By HRW. Russian forces killed and wounded numerous civilians in eight attacks in Chernihiv city in northeastern Ukraine in early March 2022, Human Rights Watch said today. Four of these attacks, from the air and ground, were in clear violation of the laws of war. They included the bombing of an apartment complex that killed 47 civilians, an attack that killed at least 17 people in a bread line outside a supermarket, and two separate attacks, including one using widely banned cluster munitions, that damaged two hospitals. Ukraine: Russian Strikes Killed Scores of Civilians in Chernihiv
  • June 9, 2022. By Atlantic Council. While the transfer of US high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and British multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) will help Ukraine, we assess that the amount of systems and ammunition planned for transfer in the first tranche will only have a minor impact in the fighting. Russia Crisis Military Assessment: The impact of multiple rocket launcher transfers to Ukraine
  • June 9, 2022. By Bohdan Ustymenko, The Jamestown Foundation. Recently, Turkey stated that it expects a decision on grain exports from Ukraine by sea “in the coming days.” But even after an agreement is reached with Russia, it will take about five weeks to begin the operation, according to İbrahim Kalın, the spokesperson for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He went on to state that it is economically and physically most expedient to transport Ukrainian grain to international markets via the ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Kalın noted that Turkey is in talks on the future coordination of the departure and arrival of ships carrying grain, as well as regarding a coordination mechanism between Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and the United Nations. President Erdoğan’s spokesperson called the talks “positive” but stressed that “there are certain legitimate security expectations” that Russian warships will not enter those unblocked Ukrainian ports (Anadolu Agency, June 4). Reopening Ukraine’s Grain Export: Is a Quick Decision on the Horizon?
  • June 9, 2022. By Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark, ISW. Russian forces are continuing to deploy outdated military equipment to Ukraine to replace losses.The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 9 that Russian forces are mining Kherson Oblast with mines from the 1950s to defend against recent Ukrainian counterattacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast. The GUR stated that Russian forces moved these mines from Russia’s Rostov Oblast to the Kherson area despite the fact the mines were meant to be destroyed. The GUR claimed that some of the mines detonated during the transportation processes and killed Russian sappers from the 49th Combined Arms Army. The GUR’s report is consistent with previous statements that Russian forces are moving old and obsolete equipment to Ukraine to make up for equipment losses, including deploying T-62 tanks to the Melitopol area and pulling MLRS and 152mm howitzers from storage in Irkutsk, Siberia. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9

South Korea – USA

Syria

  • June 10, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The frontlines remain unchanged in Syria. This is how the pro-regime newspaper al-Watan, resumed the current situation in the north, one week after Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan threatened to unleash his wrath on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Ankara sees as a terrorist group. Despite this apparent freeze, the Turkish president has repeatedly vowed to launch a military operation that would uproot “terrorists” from the borders by creating a 30-km deep “safe area” to which refugees who fled Syria to Turkey could return. One year ahead of general elections in Turkey, and as the question of refugees and the involvement of Turkey in the war become a source of more and more controversy, an operation like this could be a significant victory for the Turkish president. In fact, both Ankara and the opposition Syrian national army it backs said they were ready to launch the operation anytime now. Recap: Turkish Operation in NE Syria Looms, Despite Condemnation
  • June 10, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Bashar al-Assad’s regime continues to dig mass graves in Syria to fill with ial-aaaaaffffts victims, an anonymous whistleblower told U.S. senators in a court hearing on Wednesday. Assad Regime Still Filling Syria Mass Graves with Murdered Detainees, Defector Says
  • June 10, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. The eastern countryside of the Suweida Governorate has recently witnessed tension due to clashes between the “Military Security Agency” and the so-called anti-terror Force in the village of Amtan. The clash has killed the force’s commander, Samer al-Hakim. Commander of “Anti-terrorist Force” Killed in Suweida
  • June 10, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Turkish media said that the Turkish army and factions of the Syrian National Army have completed preparations and are waiting for Ankara’s order to start a new cross-border operation in northern Syria. Turkish Media: Army & Allies Completed Preparations for Military Operation in Syria
  • June 10, 2022. By The Syrian Observer. Several sources said that the Dekwaneh municipality in the Metn region of Mount Lebanon carried out “arbitrary raids and arrests of Syrians in the city.” Some detainees “are registered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, including those “who have an official residency on Lebanese territory and live within the municipality.”. Lebanese Municipality Forces Syrians to Sign a Pledge to Return

Turkey – North Caucasus

  • June 9, 2022. By Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Although Turkey is no longer as dramatically active in the North Caucasus as during the 1990s, when it backed Chechen aspirations for independence, Ankara is quietly expanding its use of soft power mechanisms there. As Russian analyst Andrey Areshov writes, these overtures toward the region—increasingly apparent in the wake of the Azerbaijani-Armenian war of 2020 and even more since the start of Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine—encompass relationships with the numerous and active North Caucasian émigré groups in Turkey. Such links expand Turkish influence in the North Caucasus and undermine Russia’s control; but unfortunately, Areshov says, the Kremlin is distracted by other concerns and has failed to recognize what is going on. Because Russia’s government has not taken the necessary steps to counter what Turkey is doing, a branch of the “Turkic World” is now at risk of growing inside the current borders of the Russian Federation, the analyst contends (Fond Strategicheskoy Kultury, June 4). As War Rages in Ukraine, Turkey Expanding Its Soft Power in North Caucasus

Ukraine – IAEA

  • June 9, 2022.  By World Nuclear News. The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that the Ukrainian government “at the highest levels” has requested a mission be sent to Zaporizhzhia – although the country’s nuclear regulator and its power plant operator Energoatom have both said that it should not take place until Russian forces leave the site. Grossi says Zaporizhzhia mission ‘an obligation’ for Ukraine and IAEA : Regulation & Safety

USA

DEFENSE, MILITARY

PERSPECTIVES

  • June 9, 2022. By Conor Savoy, CSIS. Donors have rhetorically supported the importance of innovation in global development, but the level of resources committed has seldom matched the level of this rhetoric. There are clear barriers to expanding funding for the innovation ecosystem: (1) innovation remains under-resourced, and models that are providing clear results are not properly supported; (2) pathways to scale remain limited because of the total funding available; and (3) the risk appetite of donors remains too conservative to properly support and scale innovation. Recent impact evaluations suggest that innovations supported by the United States Agency for International Development’s (USAID) Development Innovation Ventures (DIV) and the Global Innovation Fund (GIF) have yielded impressive returns. But more importantly, innovation also leverages scarce funding resources and engages with locally based partners. Donor Funding Models for Innovation: A Review