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Marco Emanuele Pensiero Strategico

Geostrategic Diary – June 9, 2022 a.m.

First published in The Science of Where Magazine

FOCUS

THINK TANKS & GLOBAL NEWS

PERSPECTIVES

DIGITAL, TECH, CYBER

  • June 8, 2022. By Alex Engler, Brookings. The European Union’s (EU) AI Act (AIA) aspires to establish the first comprehensive regulatory scheme for artificial intelligence, but its impact will not stop at the EU’s borders. In fact, some EU policymakers believe it is a critical goal of the AIA to set a worldwide standard, so much so that some refer to a race to regulate AI. This framing implies that not only is there value in regulating AI systems, but that being among the first major governments to do so will have broad global impact to the benefit of the EU—often referred to as the “Brussels Effect.” Yet, while some components of the AIA will have important effects on global markets, Europe alone will not be setting a comprehensive new international standard for AI. The EU AI Act Will Have Global Impact, but a Limited Brussels Effect

AROUND THE WORLD

Belarus

  • June 8, 2022. By Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. The authorities’ crackdown on the massive 2020 post-election protests resulted in a cardinal change to Belarus’s international relations and its regional security nexus. From aspiring to be a middle ground between Russia and the European Union and even a would-be Switzerland (see EDM, November 18, 2019), Belarus seemingly turned into a player squarely on the Russian team. Russia’s 2022 full-scale war against Ukraine solidified this shift. The break with the past appears so fundamental that the series of major international forums that the Minsk Dialogue (MD) Council on International Relations had organized between 2015 and 2019, which brought together Western and Russian (not to mention Belarusian) experts, now seem as though they took place in a different world. And yet MD is still around, albeit with a diminished scope of activities. Yauheni Preiherman, MD’s director, recently authored a revealing article in the newspaper Belarusy i Rynok. The latter also continues to operate, despite its opposition-minded focus and a recent brush with the Belarusian KGB: on May 18, the media outlet’s offices were searched, and its director and bookkeeper was arrested (Zerkalo, May 18). Is Belarus Still Able to Pursue Its Own Interests?

Europe – Russia

  • June 8, 2022. By Ben Cahill, CSIS. The European Union has imposed a partial embargo on Russian crude oil and petroleum products, as well as a ban on shipping insurance for oil exports from Russia. But it may be hard to achieve its goal of taking Russian oil off the market and cutting Russian export revenue without hurting consumers in Europe and elsewhere. European Union Imposes Partial Ban on Russian Oil

Finland

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

  • June 9, 2022. By Kevin Zhang and Tham Siew Yean, East Asia Forum. Malaysia’s low-wage workers ostensibly saw a big boost to their salaries in May 2022 when Prime Minister Ismail Sabri announced that the country’s minimum wage would rise by as much as 36 per cent. While the minimum wage is revised every two years, the recent hike marks the largest jump since it was first introduced in 2013. The new monthly salary of RM1,500 (A$475) replaces the previous two-tier wage floor of RM1,200 (A$380) for cities or municipal districts and RM1,100 (A$348) for rural districts. Who gains from the minimum wage hike in Malaysia ?

Poland

  • June 8, 2022. By World Nuclear News. US engineering and construction firm Bechtel has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with two affiliates of Japan’s Toshiba to collaborate on the delivery of steam turbines and generators for Poland’s first nuclear power plant. Bechtel teams up with Toshiba for Polish new build : Corporate

Russia

Russia – Taiwan

Russia – Ukraine (on the ground)

  • June 8, 2022. By Mykola Vorobiov, The Jamestown Foundation. Over the years, Moscow has poured in vast sums of money to support its loyalists in Ukraine, cultivating the ground for further military incursion. And after the Kremlin launched its massive re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many such pro-Kremlin Ukrainian politicians suddenly surfaced in Russia, appearing on state TV propaganda channels to call for tougher measures against Kyiv (Vesti, March 8). Meanwhile, in the occupied territories, some such figures have agreed to cooperate with the Russia forces, accepting high positions in the local administrations, including in Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and other cities controlled by the invading troops (Pravda.com.ua, May 8; Liga.net, May 23; Slovoidilo.ua, May 31). Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Decimates Influence of Local Pro-Russian Parties
  • June 8, 2022. By Alex Horobets, The Jamestown Foundation. A group of Soviet-built T-62M main battle tanks were recently spotted in an occupied area of Kherson Oblast. The units were equipped with metal grids over the turrets, apparently as some sort of improvised protection (Mil.in.ua, June 5). That account marked a continued trend in the Russian military that was initially exposed late last month. In a May 23 report, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said a heavy loss of armored equipment in Ukraine battles had pushed the Russian command to start pulling T-62 tanks from storage and use them to equip reserve battalion tactical groups that were about to be sent across the border (Facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua, May 23). The turret grid upgrade appears to be an attempt to protect these vehicles (built during the 1960s and 1970s) from modern anti-tank systems. However, Russian tank crews had earlier slammed such “enhancements” as ridiculous. In particular, once the grids were installed, the turret machine gun could not rotate properly, while the antenna would short-circuit when touching the grid, burning down the radio and thus cutting off the crew’s communication with the unit. Also, whenever a tank caught fire, the crew would be effectively blocked inside (Moskovsky Komsomolets, May 24). Those lessons, however, were evidently not taken to heart. Russia Throwing Soviet-Era Tanks Into Ukraine Grinder, Reserving Armatas for Moscow Parades
  • June 9, 2022. By Interfax. Over 36,000 people left Ukraine through the western border on Wednesday, June 8, as against 33,000 the day before, while the arrivals stood at 37,000 and over 33,000, respectively, Ukrainian media outlets said, citing the statements posted by the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on social media. Passenger traffic into, out of Ukraine practically of equal proportions – State Border Guard Service of Ukraine
  • June 9, 2022. By Interfax. Ukraine’s Gas Transport System Operator (GTSOU) has accepted a request from Gazprom for Thursday to transport 41.9 million cubic meters of gas through the country compared to 41.4 mcm on Wednesday, data from GTSOU indicate. Gazprom to pump around 42 mcm of gas via Ukraine, only Sudzha entry point accepting volumes
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine COVID-22 and noted that weapons and sanctions are a vaccine against it. President of Ukraine: Weapons and sanctions are vaccine against COVID-22 brought by Russia
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Dozens of countries may face a physical shortage of food and millions of people may starve if Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports continues. Millions of people may starve if Russia’s blockade of Black Sea ports continues – Zelensky
  • June 9, 2022. By Al Jazeera. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 106th day, we take a look at the main developments. Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 106
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Since the full-scale war started, Russia has used about 2,600 different missiles against Ukraine, mainly firing at civilian objects. Russia already used about 2,600 missiles against Ukraine – President Zelensky
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Russia has already lost about 31,700 troops in Ukraine (+200 over the past day). Ukraine Army destroys about 31,700 enemy troops and 1,398 tanks
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. On June 8, 2022, two civilians were killed and four injured in Russia’s shelling of Kharkiv’s Novobavarskyi District. A local café, shop and school caught fire. Two civilians killed, four injured in Russia’s shelling of Kharkiv
  • June 9, 2022. By Interfax. A package agreement on food exports from Ukraine and Russia to world markets is being prepared, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. UN drafting package deal on food exports from Ukraine and Russia
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. A total of 263 children have been killed and 488 injured in Ukraine since the Russian invasion started. Russian armed aggression affects over 751 children in Ukraine
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. The artillerymen from the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed Russia’s armored personnel carrier (APC), two tanks and 15 troops, when they were about to launch an offensive in eastern Ukraine. Lviv paratroopers destroy enemy APC, two tanks and 15 invaders
  • June 8, 2022. By 
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Russian troops shell industrial facilities and residential neighborhoods in Luhansk region. Russians hit Azot plant in Sievierodonetsk, damaging ammonia workshop
  • June 8, 2022. By Jaroslaw Adamowski, Defense News. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced his country is selling 155mm Krab self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine amid the country’s fight against Russia’s invasion. Ukraine to buy Polish howitzers as long war looms with Russia
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. In Sievierodonetsk direction, Russian troops fired mortars, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers on the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The enemy continues making futile attempts to find weak spots in the defense of Sievierodonetsk. Enemy unsuccessfully searching for weak spots in defense of Sievierodonetsk
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. The United States is confident in the unity and readiness of NATO and G7 to resolutely resist Russian aggression and support Ukraine. NATO, G7 remain firmly united in support of Ukraine, White House assures
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Over the past day, the strike aircraft of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine eliminated at least ten enemy armored personnel vehicles and about two dozen invaders. Ukraine’s Air Force destroys at least ten enemy armored vehicles
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. The United States follows the situation in eastern Ukraine and is ready to continue providing necessary equipment and tools to Ukraine to be able to resist Russian advances. Sullivan: US to provide necessary equipment to Ukraine to resist Russian advances
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. In the southern direction, the Ukrainian military eliminated 30 Russian invaders, six units of equipment, and three ammunition depots over the past 24 hours. Ukraine’s Armed Forces eliminate 30 invaders, three ammo depots in south
  • June 9, 2022. By Ukrinform. Ukrainian forces have repulsed seven enemy attacks and destroyed a significant number of military equipment in the area of the Joint Forces Operation in eastern Ukraine in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian defenders destroy three enemy tanks, six drones in JFO area
  • June 8, 2022. By  Peter Dickinson, Atlantic Council. Belarus announced the start of major nationwide military exercises on June 7. The drills, which will involve all branches of the Belarusian armed forces, are reportedly designed to prepare the country for the transition “from peacetime to wartime.” These new exercises form part of a recent pattern of heightened military mobilization in southern Belarus that has fueled speculation over the possibility of a renewed cross-border offensive into northern Ukraine as part of Russia’s ongoing invasion. Belarus bluff? Putin’s only ally sparks fears of possible new Kyiv offensive
  • June 8, 2022. By Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros, ISW. Russian forces are escalating the use of psychological and information operations to damage the morale of Ukrainian soldiers.The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 8 that Russian forces are sending threatening messages to the personal devices of Ukrainian servicemen calling on them to betray their service oaths, lay down their arms, surrender, or defect to Russia.[1] The GUR reported that Russian forces are sending messages on a variety of platforms including SMS, Telegram, Viber, Signal, and WhatsApp and that the messages use location information to threaten to harm Ukrainian soldiers or their family members. Ukrainian military expert Dmytro Snegirov additionally noted that Russian propagandists are conducting informational and psychological campaigns to spoil the morale of Ukrainian troops by disseminating information that the battle for Severodonetsk will become the “next Mariupol.”[2] These information and psychological attacks likely seek to lower the morale of Ukrainian servicemen as operations on multiple axes of advance continue to generate high causalities on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 8

Ukraine

USA

  • June 8, 2022. By World Nuclear News. On the same day that the US Department of Energy (DOE) moved forward with plans for a programme to develop regional clean hydrogen hubs across the USA, Westinghouse Electric Company and Bloom Energy Corporation said they are teaming up to identify and implement clean hydrogen projects across the nuclear industry. US hydrogen initiatives make progress : Energy & Environment
  • June 8, 2022. By Brookings. Every day, the federal government enacts impactful policy changes through the executive branch and its agencies. The Brookings Center on Regulation and Markets Regulatory Tracker (“Reg Tracker”) provides background information and status updates on a curated selection of particularly important regulatory changes. Using our tracker, you can learn more about the background of different rules, discover the impact of potential regulations, and monitor a regulation’s progress through rulemaking. We include standard rules as well as guidance documents, executive orders, and other actions across ten key policy areas. While the relaunched Reg Tracker focuses on regulatory changes enacted under Biden, our previous entries tracking regulatory changes during the Trump administration can be accessed through the “Trump archives” checkbox. Tracking regulatory changes in the Biden era

USA – Canada

DEFENSE, MILITARY