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Geostrategic environment

Geostrategic environment (october 11, 2022)

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TOPICS

  • (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022.  Chris Teale, GCN. Stronger collaboration among the public, private and academic sectors can strengthen overall cybersecurity and feed the talent pipeline, according to NASCIO’s biennial report. State CISOs must cooperate more with locals on threats, report says
  • (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022. Beth Maundrill, Infosecurity. Representatives from Ukraine’s State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP) and the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) recently met to discuss strengthening cooperation and networking. Ukraine Enhances Cooperation With EU Cybersecurity Agencies
  • (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022. James Coker, Infosecurity. Intel has confirmed that the alleged leak of its Alder Lake BIOS source code is authentic, potentially raising cybersecurity risks for customers. Intel Confirms Source Code Leak
  • (Cybersecurity) October 10, 2022. Kevin Poireault, Infosecurity. What if a hacker could guess your passwords from the heat you leave behind on your keyboard? A group of computer security researchers at the University of Glasgow’s School of Computing Science in the UK succeeded in deploying such an attack. ThermoSecure: Cracking Passwords Using Finger Heat on Keyboards is Now Possible
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 11, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army is counting on a major operational test of its Extended Range Cannon Artillery system to help it answer several questions, such as how well the longer gun tube can handle a heavy amount of firing, according to the program’s leader and the service’s acquisition chief. Army test will show how many shots its long-range cannon can take
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 11, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. Windshield wiper fluid to recharge batteries, drone casualty evacuation and an electric “tactical cart” are a few new and ongoing efforts receiving attention at the Army’s Maneuver Battle Lab. Casualty evacuations by drone, robotic mules tested by Army battle lab
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 11, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. In the coming years, the Pentagon’s area of focus, the Pacific, will count more than two dozen “megacities” or urban areas with more than 10 million inhabitants. The Army faces urban challenges, these units are attacking the problem
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. When Gen. James McConville took over as Army chief of staff three years ago, he became responsible for overseeing the service’s biggest modernization push in 40 years. Five questions with Gen. James McConville, US Army chief of staff
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One. A newly designed 50-millimeter gun turret, a special launcher that can fire anti-tank weapons, a new hybrid transmission, cutting-edge sensor, and agile software that can tie everything together. Those are just some of the unique features of the armored vehicle that American Rheinmetall is pitching to the Army to replace the Bradley, a tracked combat vehicle that has been in the inventory for four decades.  Rheinmetall, Partners Detail Armored Fighting Vehicle It’s Pitching to Replace Army’s Bradley
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 11, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. Over the past five years, the Army has overhauled its doctrine to meet new foes on a new battlefield while simultaneously beginning to modernize training and career building for soldiers across the service. New TRADOC boss champions doctrine, training upgrades
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  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. General Dynamics Land Systems will start manufacturing in November the U.S. Army’s Mobile Protected Firepower system, the first new combat vehicle to enter the force in nearly four decades. General Dynamics to begin building US Army’s new light tank next month
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. The U.S. Army hopes a program established through its comptroller’s office will help it reach a clean audit, a milestone the service hasn’t met since Defense Department audits began in 2018. How the US Army plans to achieve a clean audit
  • (Defense – Military – Security) October 10, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. By next year, the Army expects to field its first true replacement for the squad rifle and automatic rifle in a brand-new caliber. Next Generation Squad Weapon on target for 2023
  • (Development/Economy/Governance) October 9, 2022. Eswar Prasad and Aryan Khanna, Brookings. The post-COVID recovery has run out of steam and the global economy is stalling, with many countries already in or on the brink of outright recession amid heightened uncertainty and rising risks. The October 2022 update of the Brookings-Financial Times TIGER indexes shows that growth momentum, as well as financial market and confidence indicators, have deteriorated markedly around the world in recent months. October 2022 update to TIGER: World economy battered by high inflation and stalling growth
  • (Energy) October 10, 2022. Atlantic Council. The Atlantic Council is organizing a Clean energy outlook conference in Istanbul on October 10-11, 2022. This timely event, organized by the Atlantic Council IN TURKEY and the Council’s Global Energy Center, and in partnership with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, will convene leaders from government, business, and research communities to discuss clean, secure, and sustainable energy developments. 2022 Regional Clean Energy Outlook Conference: Advancing climate and security goals
  • (Health & Technological Innovation) October 11, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. A study published in JAMA Network Open found that researchers must improve the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to test machine-learning (ML) algorithms by making the trials more inclusive and improving reporting transparency. Clinical Trials Assessing ML Methods Lack Transparent Reporting, Inclusivity
  • (Health & Technological Innovation) October 10, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. Researchers from Weill Cornell Medicine, NewYork-Presbyterian, the University of Chicago, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and Mayo Clinic have created a machine learning (ML)-based screening tool integrated into EMRs that can effectively identify those at high risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) before symptoms arise. ML-Based Automated Screening Tool Can Determine Pulmonary Fibrosis Risk
  • (Space) October 11, 2022. Shimona Mohan, Observer Research Foundation. While the climate crisis has gained impetus in recent times and resulted in multitudes of climate actions, a parallel, albeit less ardent conversation has been occurring around promoting the sustainable use of outer space. Space sustainability would ensure that all humanity can continue to use outer space for peaceful purposes and for its socioeconomic benefit now and in the long term. This notion is gaining ground, and as a result, World Space Week this year is themed around ‘Space and Sustainability’. Among other things, the 2022 theme seeks to specifically inspire focus on the challenges the world faces to keep space safe and sustainable. Sustainability in space
  • (Space) October 11, 2022. Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan, Observer Research Foundation. India’s anti-satellite (ASAT) test in March 2019 made it the fourth country (after the United States, Russia, and China) to have a demonstrated ASAT capability. Israel is another country that is thought to have this capability, but it has not demonstrated it as yet. India’s ASAT test hit a target satellite at an altitude of 300 kilometres, close to the altitude of the US ASAT test in 2008. Nevertheless, this has kickstarted a new debate about ASATs, their dangers and consequences for international security. The debate is not taking place in a vacuum—there has been considerable debate lately about the growing trends in the weaponisation of space. Of course, India’s ASAT test brings up the question of why countries persist on this path despite the inherent dangers, uncertainties and security dilemmas that come with it. Also, there are questions such as what can be done to stop this slippery slope in space weaponisation. ASAT weapons: A real threat to the future of Space

WORLDS 

  • (Australia) October 11, 2022. , The Strategist. As Australians absorb the damning evidence from inquiries into local casinos, Transparency International Australia has identified the nation as a favourite location for international money launderers. Tears of the crocodile: global crime syndicates eye Australia’s casinos to ‘wash’ cash
  • (Australia) October 11, 2022.  and , The Strategist. For decades, Australians’ faith in globalisation and economic liberalism ensured that discussions about resilience focussed on recovery from short-term disasters. But the impacts of Covid-19 and the exponential decline in global security in recent years have signalled that this faith may have been misplaced. Australia’s supply chains continue to be tested—and to challenge policymakers. Australia’s fuel reserves don’t have to keep running on empty
  • (Australia – Europe) October 11, 2022. Justin Brown, The Interpreter. Australia’s long-running free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with the European Union seem to be emerging from the hiatus they were plunged into by the Morrison government’s French submarine decision. The Albanese government’s climate policy and its moves to right relations with France have been received positively in Brussels and in key member states. EU in the driver’s seat on Indo-Pacific trade deals
  • (Belt and Road Initiative) October 7, 2022. Andrea Kendall-TaylorJim TownsendLisa CurtisCarisa NietscheJoshua Fitt and Nicholas Lokker, CNAS. Nine years after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s flagship global infrastructure investment program is at a critical juncture. While many countries were initially eager to sign up for the initiative, the BRI has recently lost some of its luster in the face of mounting obstacles including delays, corruption, and heavy debt burdens associated with its projects. Crafting Transatlantic Responses to BRI, with Lisa Curtis, Jacob Stokes, Josh Fitt, Carisa Nietsche, and Nicholas Lokker
  • (China) October 11, 2022. Manoj Joshi, Observer Research Foundation. As Xi Jinping heads for the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and another term of office as the General Secretary, there are several ways to assess his tenure till now. Perhaps, the most distinct marker has been China’s abandonment of Deng Xiaoping’s dictum of the nation keeping a low profile. During Xi’s tenure, Chinese assertiveness has been the order of the day from the Senkaku to the South China Sea and the Himalayas. This has been accompanied by a major reassertion of the CPC’s role at all levels within the country as well. CCP Congress: Assessing Xi’s tenure
  • (Europe – Gulf Arab States – Iran) October 11, 2022. Cinzia Bianco, European Council on Foreign Relations. The Middle East is one of the regions of the world most exposed to climate change and desertification. The urgent challenges it faces include air pollution and sandstorms, temperatures in some areas that exceed a threshold for human adaptability, and extreme weather events, such as Cyclone Shaheen in October 2021 and the floods in summer 2022. Water scarcity, long a grave concern, is worsening. A new climate for peace: How Europe can promote environmental cooperation between the Gulf Arab states and Iran
  • (France – UK) October 7, 2022. Georgina Wright, Institut Montaigne. For the past five years, relations between London and Paris have gone from bad to worse. Brexit, AUKUS, migration and fisheries – it’s hard to keep track of the number of spats the two countries have had. But there are signs that things are changing. Yesterday evening, France and the UK published a joint statement promising a new bilateral summit next year – the first since 2018. This was announced on the same day as European countries gathered in Prague for the first summit of the European Political Community. Why Truss and Macron Are Right to Reset Franco-British Relations
  • (India) October 11, 2022. Akhilesh Sati, Lydia Powell, Vinod Kumar, Observer Research Foundation. If momentum in the shift to low-carbon energy sources is measured in terms of the volume of media coverage, electrifying mobility will clearly take the top spot. Each day, energy sector news across all media platforms is dominated by sales growth figures for electric vehicles (EVs), long lists of new entrants in each segment of the EV value chain, plans of traditional vehicle manufacturers from within and outside India to enter the Indian EV sector, the list of companies setting up charging stations across the country and most importantly, policy pronouncements from central and state governments that promote adoption of EVs, through subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives. The message conveyed is that once issues such as the availability of charging infrastructure, range anxiety of EV adopters, and the initial high price of EVs are addressed there would be a Cambrian explosion in EV adoption in India. Electrifying Mobility in India: The Challenge of Petroleum Tax Revenue
  • (India) October 11, 2022. Nilanjan Ghosh, Observer Research Foundation. During the third week of September this year, the Economic Times published a news article saying that the NITI Aayog will place a draft recommendation paper looking at various trading instruments for water for public consultations. Such instruments will entail spot trading and derivative instruments like futures trading of water and also tradable licenses. How liquid can water be? Possibilities with water derivatives trading in India
  • (India) October 6, 2022. Happymon Jacob, Institut Montaigne. India’s view of the world is intimately linked to how it views itself. Broadly speaking, this is composed of its geopolitical location, its sense of its own history and culture, the bitter colonial experience, and the nationwide freedom movement to break free from colonial Britain. From 1947 onwards, all these variables shaped the newly independent India’s political and strategic culture. A New Delhi View on the World Order
  • (India) October 11, 2022.  and , The Strategist. As India assumes the leadership of both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the G20, Delhi will need to ensure that the concerns of developing nations are not ignored. At the head of two groups with divergent goals, an assertive foreign policy that seeks to shape and steer conversations will help. Two groupings for India to tango with in 2023
  • (Iran) October 10, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Dana Alexander Gray and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. The ongoing, anti-regime protests could interact with and feed off of preexisting insurgencies in Iran. Iran Crisis Update, October 10
  • (Japan) October 11, 2022. Aurelia George Mulgan, East Asia Forum. Japan’s Fumio Kishida-led administration is now enduring a new low in public popularity. Support for the Kishida cabinet was polled at 29 per cent, falling below the 30 per cent ‘danger zone’ for the first time since the inauguration of the administration last October. This was from a record-high approval rating of 63.2 per cent just after former prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot on 8 July 2022 — a precipitous fall for an administration less than a year in power. Abe’s death leaves a leadership vacuum
  • (JCPOA) October 10, 2022. Heather J. Williams, RAND Corporation. The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. The White House, even as it voiced support for widespread protests in Iran, has still been trying to reach an accommodation with Tehran on nuclear development. The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?
  • (Philippines) October 10, 2022. Danilo Arana Arao, East Asia Forum. Upon assuming the Philippines presidency on 30 June 2022, Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr — the only son and namesake of the former dictator Ferdinand Marcos — delivered an inaugural address that did not mention press freedom. Press freedom also went unmentioned when he delivered his first State of the Nation Address before the joint Senate and House of Representatives on 25 July 2022. Press freedom under Bongbong is fake news
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 11, 2022. Rakesh Sharma, Vivekananda International Foundation. Debates about the future of war are as old as war itself. Currently, it is normal to reflect on future wars by highlighting the over-arching importance of artificial intelligence, space, quantum computing, block-chain technologies, robotics, and the like. While hasty and sweeping conclusions of the Ukraine-Russia War of 2022 will be counterproductive, there is seemingly a tectonic shift in the character of war. Newer military technologies seem to be altering the balance between offence and defence. Always defensive warfare was advantageous, lately with precision weapons defenders have been exploiting distinct advantages to upset the offensive forces’ apple cart! Interdicting the adversary’s ability to manoeuvre, and making him over-cautious, is the key to defenders battlefield success. Ukraine-Russia War: Lessons for Future of War
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 10, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian forces conducted a massive missile strike attack against over 20 cities, including Kyiv, on October 10.  Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 10, 2022. Steven Pifer, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Brookings. Seven and a half months after it began, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine has not gone as the Kremlin had hoped. The Ukrainian military has resisted with skill and tenacity, in recent weeks clawing back territory in the country’s south and east. As the Russian invasion falters, concern has arisen that Putin might turn to nuclear weapons. Pushing back against Putin’s threat of nuclear use in Ukraine
  • (Turkey) October 10, 2022. Ian Lesser, GMF. Even by its recent standards, Turkish foreign policy over the last few months has seen extraordinary shifts on multiple fronts, from Ukraine to the Arabian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean. Decoding the New Turkish Activism
  • (Ukraine) October 10, 2022. William Courtney, RAND Corporation. On September 30, U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan deflected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for accelerated admission to NATO—for a “different time”—and said the best way to help Ukraine was through “practical on-the-ground support.” With tangible Western backing, Ukraine has gained battlefield momentum. This support may remain vital. Protecting Ukraine’s Future Security
  • (Ukraine) October 11, 2022. Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The U.S. has again significantly expanded its pledges of support for Ukraine in recent weeks. European countries, on the other hand, have made only a few new pledges. In addition, the aid announced by EU countries has been slow to reach Ukraine. These are the results of the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker. The analysis on heavy weapons has been considerably expanded in this release. In the period now additionally covered (August 4 to October 3), the U.S. made new pledges of just under 12 billion euros, bringing the total to just over 52 billion euros in military, financial and humanitarian aid. EU countries and institutions expanded their commitments by only about 1.4 billion euros over the same period, and now collectively reach just over 29 billion euros. “The U.S. is now committing nearly twice as much as all EU countries and institutions combined. This is a meagre showing for the bigger European countries, especially since many of their pledges are arriving in Ukraine with long delays. The low volume of new commitments in the summer now appears to be continuing systematically,” says Christoph Trebesch, head of the team compiling the Ukraine Support Tracker. Ukraine Support Tracker
  • (USA) October 2022. Tobias Sytsma, RAND Corporation. Remote work creates opportunities for organizations to engage in cross-border trade in services and offshoring. Digital offshoring—moving jobs overseas to cheaper locations using digital technologies—could be one of the long-run impacts of the recent remote work boom. In other words, services may be about to go through a period of globalization, like what the manufacturing sector experienced in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The Globalization of Remote Work: Will Digital Offshoring Make Waves in the U.S. Labor Market?
  • (USA) October 10, 2022. Louise Chetcuti, Institut Montaigne. The 2022 US midterm election is underway. With the primary season over in all 50 states, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8. These midterms will determine the political makeup of Congress for the next two years, impacting what President Biden can achieve over the remainder of his time in office. With a month to go until the election, Louise Chetcuti, Editorial Content Officer, explains what the midterms are, why they matter, and this year’s stakes in Institut Montaigne’s latest Explainer. An Institut Montaigne Explainer: US Midterm Elections
  • (USA) October 10, 2022. Alyssa Farah Griffin, Brett Bruen, Defense One. When it comes to immigration policy, there’s little that the authors—a former Trump administration official and a former Obama administration official—have in common. However, we both recognize that attracting the world’s best in key fields is critical to U.S. competitiveness and national security—and that today’s visa caps are imperiling those efforts. To Protect America, Loosen Visa Caps for STEM Experts
  • (USA) October 10, 2022. John Villasenor, Brookings. Over a quarter of a century after its 1996 enactment, the liability shield known as Section 230 is heading to the Supreme Court. Section 230(c)(1) provides, with some exceptions, that “No provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider.”. The Supreme Court and social media platform liability
  • (USA) October 10, 2022. Darrell M. West, Brookings. Investments in research and development are the most important keys to future prosperity. What countries spend on generating new knowledge, products, services, and processes is important for economic growth and technology innovation, and vital for national security and international competitiveness. In many different respects, such financing determines which nations will lead and what ones will lag behind. R&D for the public good: Ways to strengthen societal innovation in the United States
  • (USA – Africa) October 10, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The U.S. Army’s 2nd Security Force Assistance Brigade is training militaries throughout Africa to woo countries away from Chinese and Russian influence on the continent. US Army brigade in Africa seeks to ward off Chinese, Russian influence
  • (USA – China) October 6, 2022. CNAS. David Priess sat down with Martijn Rasser to examine the United States, attempt to curb China’s advanced computing and chip production capabilities by applying the “Foreign-Direct Product Rule,” which would prevent companies from selling specific advanced computer chips to Chinese buyers without U.S. government licenses. The US, China, and Semiconductors
  • (USA – Iran) October 10, 2022. Ahmed Charai, The National Interest. Washington’s diverse allies in the Middle East are now speaking with one voice about the dangers of Iran. America should listen. The U.S. Must Listen to Its Middle East Allies on Iran
  • (USA – Pacific) October 10, 2022. Jen Judson, Defense News. Coming up in 2023, the U.S. Army in the Pacific will ramp up efforts that examine how to conduct battlefield logistics in contested environments, Gen. Charles Flynn told Defense News in a recent interview. US Army heightens focus on contested logistics in Pacific
  • (USA – Saudi Arabia) October 11, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee announced on Monday that he will block arms sales to Saudi Arabia following OPEC’s announcement last week that the cartel will curtail oil production, a move seen as signaling alignment with Russia. Key senator announces hold on Saudi arms sales after oil cuts