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Geostrategic environment (october 14, 2022 pm)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

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All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye


  • (Defense – Military – Security) V K Saxena, VIF. The brief news item about the successful test-fire of the indigenously developed Very Short Range Air Defence System (VSHORAD) by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) from the Interim Test Range at Chandipur on 27 Sep 2022 came and faded away without making it to the high decibel ‘breaking news’. A ‘Quiet’ Test with a ‘Big’ Impact
  • (Nuclear Deterrence) Jonathan Eyal, Matthew Harries, RUSI. How significant is the danger that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war? And what do Russia’s indirect threats mean for the future of nuclear deterrence? Ukraine and the Consequences for Nuclear Deterrence
  • (Perspectives) Helen Harwatt, Klas Wetterberg, Arpana Giritharan, Tim Benton, Chatham House. Over the 30 years since the Rio Conventions were initiated to enable international cooperation on climate, biodiversity and land issues, the biodiversity and climate crises have worsened. Action has not been aligned with global treaties to tackle these critical issues, and the decade ahead must be a major turning point to avoid the worst impacts. Aligning food systems with climate and biodiversity targets
  • (Perspectives) Institut Montaigne. La notion de résilience est au cœur des défis de ces dernières années. De la crise Covid-19 à la guerre en Ukraine, en passant par les difficultés d’approvisionnement énergétique, notre capacité à nous adapter à un contexte empreint d’instabilité est devenue un enjeu stratégique de souveraineté, au regard de l’augmentation de la fréquence, de l’intensité et du coût de ces différentes crises. Du risque à la résilience : s’adapter collectivement


  • (China) François Godement, Institut Montaigne. À la veille du 20ème Congrès du Parti communiste chinois, les spéculations sur la mise en cause ou un revers de Xi Jinping se font rares. Les rumeurs d’avant-Congrès ne sont pas une nouveauté. Avant son accession au pouvoir en 2012 en tant que secrétaire général du Parti, il y avait eu des bruits d’attentat ou même de bagarre physique concernant Xi – jamais confirmés bien sûr. L’idée d’une mise aux arrêts par des éléments de l’armée a même circulé cette fois-ci. Plus raisonnablement, les spéculations ont porté sur le non-renouvellement éventuel de son mandat, en dépit de la suppression de toute limitation du mandat de Président de la RPC : peu importe que le PCC “élise” son secrétaire général, tandis que le poste de président de la RPC dépend formellement de l’Assemblée nationale populaire… Le 20ème Congrès du PCC et la logique de Xi Jinping
  • (China) MERICS. Personnel changes lie ahead at the party congress, and we have profiled some of the potential newcomers to the Politburo and Standing Committee. Decisions on personnel have been settled well in advance and likely made with Xi Jinping in full control. Meet China’s likely leaders
  • (Europe) Pawel Zerka, ECFR. Member states’ reactions to the energy crisis could endanger European unity. A mature political response would help the bloc stay united through the coming winter. Running on empty: How trust among EU states can survive the energy crisis
  • (Europe) Zsolt Darvas, Marie Le Mouel, Simone Tagliapietra, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Bruegel. The European Union faces recession, but the way in which policymakers manage the energy crisis will determine its depth and duration. How European Union energy policies could mitigate the coming recession
  • (Europe) Moira Fagan, Sneha Gubbala, Pew Research Center. The European Union is seen in a broadly favorable light both within the bloc and outside it, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted this spring. A median of 69% of adults across 19 countries surveyed have a favorable opinion of the EU, while 27% have an unfavorable opinion. European Union views reach new highs in many countries
  • (Europe – Russia) Kadri Liik, ECFR. Vladimir Putin may find his war on Ukraine toughens up the West rather than hastens its demise. Old order dying: What European decision-makers think of Russia
  • (Europe – Ukrainians) Meltem Ineli Ciger, JIIA. The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022 and led to large-scale displacement of Ukrainian citizens. The Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • (India) Srinath Sridharan, ORF. Financial Regulations currently offer arbitrage between disruptive players (and some even skirting regulatory lines) and incumbent financial institutions who use brand legacy as a visiting card. It is a challenge that could potentially hurt when demographic changes mean that younger consumers don’t recognise legacy as a useful value to them. Traditional financial firms have to accept that customer expectations are being influenced by the digital ecosystem, and innovations continue to change the financial services sector. The advantage for the license holder is that the regulator has a positive view and comfort about the promoter of the financial entity—especially entities like banks, mutual funds or insurance firms—as they supervise their operations. At least for now. Incumbent financiers Vs FinTechs: Why Indian financial regulators should not have favourites yet…
  • (Iran) Farheen Nahvi, ORF. On 16 September 2022, 22-year-old Iranian woman Mahsa Amini died in the custody of the Iranian morality police after being arrested for improperly wearing her hijab. While the police claim Mahsa died of a heart attack, eyewitnesses say she was beaten by the police, a claim seemingly corroborated by photos of Mahsa in the hospital covered in blood and bruises. Following her death, Iran has been gripped by an intense wave of anti-establishment protests. The Women’s Movement in Iran
  • (Pacific) Rajaram Panda, VIF. Among the two potential flashpoints i.e. the Taiwan Strait and North Korea’s nuclear issue, recent developments suggest that the Taiwan issue could be a greater concern as China’s threatening statements put the US and other stakeholders on the edge. But now the nuclear-armed North Korea seems to have scored over Taiwan as the real flashpoint after a period of lull. It raised the threat perception by test-firing a ballistic missile on 4 October 2022 that soared over Japan for the first time in five years. The Japanese government was forced to issue an advisory to the residents to take cover. Japan suspended some train services in the northern part of the country as the missile flew over its territory before falling into the Pacific Ocean. Is North Korea’s Missile Firings a Bigger Flashpoint than the Taiwan Issue?
  • (Transatlantic Relations) Ankita Dutta, ORF. After the tenuous Trump Presidency, the Biden administration brought stability in transatlantic relations with its clear intentions of strengthening ties with its European allies. This was witnessed in the United States recommitting itself to multilateralism and President Biden’s visit to the continent in 2021. Trends in the Transatlantic Alliance
  • (Moldova – Russia – Europe) Andrew Wilson, ECFR. Moldova’s total dependence on Russian gas makes it a key front in Moscow’s hybrid war. The EU should help Moldova diversify its energy supplies to prevent further destabilisation. Escape routes: How the EU can help Moldova end its dependence on Russian gas
  • (Ukraine) Gerhard Gnauck, GMF. External security and the reconstruction of the country are two sides of the same coin for Ukraine. Now there are two concrete plans for this. Zelensky Hopes for Security Guarantees
  • (Ukraine – Norway) Jacob Kirkegaard, GMF. Norway, as the principal beneficiary of the recent war-related energy price spike particularly in the European gas markets, is in a unique financial, political, and moral position to kickstart the Ukrainian reconstruction process by contributing a share of its windfall from exports of natural gas. Norway Should Share Its War Windfall with Ukraine
  • (USA) Christopher S. Chivvis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Bureaucrats sometimes joke that strategy writing in the government is like ornamenting a Christmas tree—everyone gets a chance to add their favorite issue and, in the process, the strategy gets lost. The Three Important Shifts Tucked Within the New National Security Strategy
  • (USA – China) George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The United States and Chinese governments, for the foreseeable future, will have the resources to keep each other’s societies vulnerable to nuclear mass destruction. If these governments are not self-destructive, they will want to keep their competition from escalating into armed conflict that could lead to nuclear war. The constructs of strategic stability and mutual vulnerability can help significantly if both governments embrace them and interpret them similarly or even if the leaders of the two countries accurately understand how they differ in their perspectives on them. Engaging China on Strategic Stability and Mutual Vulnerability