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Daily Brief Geostrategic thinking

Geostrategic environment (october 5, 2022)

The Global Eye’s open and informal research – Research – Complexity and risk in the perspective of glocalisation

The Global Eye’s daily briefs – Editor, The Global Eye

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

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TOPICS

  • (Cybersecurity) October 5, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. A first-of-its-kind agreement between the US and UK governments came into force this week, promising to streamline digital investigations for British law enforcers. Landmark US-UK Data Access Agreement Begins
  • (Cybersecurity) October 5, 2022. Rebecca Beigel, Julia Schuetze, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung. Citizens as well as public and private organizations are exposed to tremendous risks by the constantly evolving cyber threat landscape. This development is being tackled by governments all over the world through the implementation of cybersecurity policies and regulations, among other means. Designing cybersecurity policies, however, is a complex challenge that requires specific skills and interdisciplinary contributions. One tool that can be used to contribute to this endeavor, to bring stakeholders from different backgrounds together and discuss and test policies, is cybersecurity policy exercises. Cybersecurity Policy Exercises in Practice
  • (Global Economy) October 5, 2022. Charles Kenny, Center for Global Development. A fragile global recovery from the shock of the COVID pandemic is being buffeted by the impact of war on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices along with rising interest rates and general inflation. It is surely an urgent moment for multilateral support from the IMF and World Bank. And yet, the institutions’ financial statements suggest that support is declining. Figuring out why and what to do about it should be priority one at the upcoming World Bank-IMF annual meetings. The World Is in Crisis, So Where’s the Lending?
  • (Nuclear Security) October 4, 2022.  Sneha Nair, Richard Cupitt, Stimson Center. Nuclear Security News and Member Updates, September 2022
  • (Semiconductors & Critical Raw Materials) October 5, 2022. Joris Teer and Mattia Bertolini, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. Both semiconductors and critical raw materials (CRM) have been described as the oil of the 21st century. Semiconductors play an indispensable role in powering the modern digital economy. Computers, smartphones, smart grids, automobiles and jetfighters all require chips. The production of these semiconductors relies heavily on vital CRM, without which in turn no semiconductors can be manufactured. The interlinking semiconductor and CRM supply chains are the foundation of today’s world economy.  Survey Outcome | Threats to the supply of critical raw materials for semiconductors

WORLDS

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TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Armenia – Azerbaijan) October 4, 2022. Fuad Chiragov, The Jamestown Foundation. Beginning on the night of September 12, three days of escalation gave way to violent clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces along the internationally recognized border between the two countries—the bloodiest since the 2020 trilateral agreement following the Second Karabakh War. On September 13, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced that the seven-hour military operation—“Decisive Response”—had ended and that a significant portion of Armenia’s military infrastructure, which can be used for provocations at the border in the directions of Lachin and Kalbajar, had been destroyed by high-precision weapons, and it will take years for Yerevan to restore it (Milli.az, September 13). Escalation in Karabakh Casts Shadow Over Peace Process
  • (China) October 4, 2022. John S. Van Oudenaren, The Jamestown Foundation. Only a short time ago, the question of whether the People’s Republic of China (PRC) aspires to global leadership was generally considered farfetched. However, President Xi Jinping’s recent announcements of the Global Development Initiative (GDI) at the UN General Assembly in 2021 and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) at the Boao Forum this April leave little doubt that the PRC is making an active push to become a world leader in all facets (China Brief, May 13; Xinhuanet, September 22, 2021). Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy: Roadmap to Global Leadership?
  • (China – Afghanistan) October 4, 2022. Zafar Iqbal Yousafzai, The Jamestown Foundation. In late June, a severe earthquake struck southeastern Afghanistan. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced it would provide 50 million RMB ($7.2 million) in emergency aid, including tents, blankets, cots and other sorely needed supplies to the impacted areas (People’s Republic of China Ministry of Foreign Affairs (FMPRC), June 25). Beijing invests in Afghanistan to further its long-term economic, strategic and political interests. Since the U.S. withdrawal last year, China has had an opportunity to advance its interests and deepen its clout in Afghanistan. When Kabul fell, China did not condemn the move and announced that it respected the choice of the Afghan people—a sign of goodwill from Beijing to the Taliban that it subscribes to the narrative that the new government has the full support of the population (Xinhua, August 16, 2021). China’s Interests in Afghanistan One Year After the U.S. Withdrawal
  • (China – PLA) October 4, 2022. Kenneth W. Allen, The Jamestown Foundation. Despite some limitations, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) military diplomacy activities have continued throughout the COVID-19 pandemic (China Brief, July 21, 2021). In addition to senior-level engagement and strategic dialogue, PLA military diplomacy entails specific operational, training, educational or humanitarian engagements with foreign partners. These activities, which are the focus of this article, include carrying out non-traditional security operations; conducting bilateral and multilateral joint exercises; undertaking academic exchanges; and providing humanitarian and disaster relief, including medical aid. In carrying out military diplomacy, the PLA’s self-proclaimed objectives are to deepen ties with foreign militaries and defense establishments; safeguard China’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, development and all-around interests; contribute to building a world-class military; and promote a positive international image of China as a contributor to global peace and security (PLA Daily, June 16). The PLA’s Military Diplomacy in Advance of the 20th Party Congress (Part Two)
  • (China – South America) October 4, 2022. Matthew P. Funaiole, Dana Kim, Brian Hart, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., CSIS. China has laid out a bold vision for its ambitions in space. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly called for China to transform into a leading “space power,” and a 2022 Chinese government white paper states plainly that China’s space industry “serves the overall national strategy.” While Beijing insists that it utilizes space for peaceful purposes and aspires to make scientific achievements in space, its emergence as a space power poses potential risks to other countries.  Eyes on the Skies: China’s Growing Space Footprint in South America
  • (Europe – Taiwan) October 2022. Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Institute for Security and Development Policy. The EU’s Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific recognizes that the display of force in the Taiwan Strait may have a direct impact on European security and prosperity. In this context, and in response to the military belligerence of the People’s Republic of China and its gray zone activities, Brussels elevated Taiwan into its political discourse. Yet, consensus on the role member-states want the EU to play in the Taiwan Strait remains a work in progress. In light of Beijing’s diplomatic support to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the EU has grown more aware of its own vulnerabilities. This issue brief discusses how Brussels must now start seeing Taiwan through the lens of security and work toward a credible EU-level strategy that contributes to preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, deters PRC aggression, and protects the EU’s own interests. Taiwan in the European Discourse: Toward Political Consensus?
  • (Iran) October 4, 2022. Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. University and high school students have begun largely leading the ongoing protest movement in Iran—at least for the moment. Iran Crisis Update, October 4
  • (Iran) October 4, 2022.  Shadi Hamid, The Atlantic. The islamic republic of Iran has survived longer than anyone had a right to expect. Today great revolutions are rare, because revolutions require the unflinching belief that another world is possible. In 1979, when clerics took power in Tehran, another world was possible. This is the world that Iranians still live in. A large—and apparently growing—number of them don’t seem to like it. After a 22-year-old woman named Mahsa Amini died in police custody on September 16 after being arrested for wearing her headscarf improperly, anti-government protests spread across the country, just as they seemingly do every few years. The Reason Iran Turned Out to Be So Repressive
  • (Iran – JCPOA – Israel) October 4, 2022. Amichai Stein, Atlantic Council. In early September, a sigh of relief could be heard all over Jerusalem coming from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. The relief was over Iran’s response to the Joe Biden administration’s latest proposal in the ongoing negotiations to restore the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). President Biden rejected Iran’s key demands and refused to back down. With comments from Israeli officials asserting that “the Iranians demanded too much” and “they derailed the talks,” Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz claimed success. Iran’s new demands to revive the nuclear deal are a sigh of relief for Israel. Here’s why
  • (Latvia) October 3, 2022. Lisa Homel, Atlantic Council. In a year of hotly contested elections and dramatic government reshuffles across Europe that are sweeping far-right forces into power, Latvians seem to prefer continuity. The centrist New Unity party won 19 percent in Saturday’s vote for the country’s one hundred-seat parliament (Saeima), suggesting that voters there prefer stability in the face of the geopolitical upheaval caused by the war in Ukraine.  Russia’s war pushes Latvia’s voters to the center
  • (Myanmar) October 5, 2022.  Juliette McIntyre and Adam Simpson, East Asia Forum. Two genocide cases are before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as of October 2022. The first was brought by the Gambia against Myanmar in 2019 for breach of the Genocide Convention during ‘clearance operations’ against the Rohingya ethnic minority in Rakhine State in 2017. Myanmar’s genocide overshadowed by Ukraine
  • (Russia – Europe) October 3, 2022.  Thomas S. Warrick, Atlantic Council. For all the recent talk that Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons to hold onto Ukrainian territory, Russia may have already begun hybrid warfare against Norway and northern Europe, especially Germany, to exploit Europe’s energy needs over the coming winter. Is Russia preparing to target vital Norwegian energy exports to Europe?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Erik Swabb, Defense One. It is fair to ask how long the United States should provide large-scale military support to Ukraine. Since Russia’s invasion in February, Washington has committed more than $16.8 billion in security assistance. The Biden administration has pledged to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” and is taking steps to provide longer-term assistance. Just How Long Should the US Send Aid to Ukraine?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Katherine Lawlor, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan. ISW. Ukrainian forces continued to make significant gains in Kherson Oblast while simultaneously continuing advances in Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts on October 4. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 4
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News. The Pentagon said Tuesday it’s arming Ukraine with Excalibur satellite-guided artillery rounds and four more High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to help repel Russia’s invasion force. Pentagon sending Excalibur guided artillery, more HIMARS to Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) October 4, 2022. Steven Pifer, Brookings. On September 30, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed agreements illegally incorporating the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson into Russia. He said Moscow would “defend our land with all the forces and resources we have.” He previously hinted this could include nuclear arms. Nuclear threats are no trivial matter, but Ukraine and the world should not be intimidated. The West should respond with political and military signals of its own. How to respond to Putin’s land grab and nuclear gambit
  • (South Korea) October 5, 2022. The Defense Post. A failed ballistic missile launch sparked panic in a usually quiet South Korean city after it crashed into the ground and triggered a huge fire, officials said Wednesday. Failed Missile Launch Triggers Panic in South Korean City
  • (USA) October 4, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The U.S. Space Force said it awarded contracts to Millennium Space Systems and Firefly Space Transport Services to support a 2023 mission that will demonstrate the ability to rapidly develop and launch a satellite. Space Force awards rapid satellite launch demonstration contracts
  • (USA) October 4, 2022. Brookings. While President Biden has officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic “over,” America now faces a new challenge in the form of an overheating economy and high inflation, and the prospect of a Federal Reserve-induced recession is looming. In the latest Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, spoke with Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins University about his new paper, “Understanding U.S. inflation during the COVID era.” In the study, Ball and his co-authors find that the Fed may need to push unemployment higher than its 4.1% projection to return inflation to the 2% target. How bad will the economy get before inflation gets better?
  • (USA – China – Taiwan) October 4, 2022. Scott Kennedy, CSIS. A new report by the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics interprets a formal survey of over 500 Taiwanese business executives, documenting their views about the evolving environment on the island and beyond. The Washington policy community is quite familiar with the views that U.S. and European companies hold toward China, but less clear are the views of Taiwanese companies that are central to the story of the world’s interaction with China. Their opinions have implications for Taiwan’s economic trajectory, cross-strait relations, global supply chains, and the effectiveness of U.S. policy in the region.  It’s Moving Time: Taiwanese Business Responds to Growing U.S.-China Tensions
  • (USA – China – Taiwan) October 4, 2022. Ryan Hass, Brookings. I was privileged to have an opportunity to meet with many of Taiwan’s leaders and leading thinkers during a study tour visit in August. One theme I heard several times during that trip was that bad relations between the United States and China benefit Taiwan. Are worsening US-China relations in Taiwan’s interest?
  • (USA – North Korea) October 4, 2022. Andrew Yeo and Roberta Cohen, Brookings. Advocacy for North Korean human rights has lost momentum in recent years. A near-total lockdown imposed by the North Korean regime throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a confluence of pressing global problems, most notably the war in Ukraine, has put North Korea (DPRK) issues on the backburner. However, new appointments related to North Korean human rights at the United Nations and in the South Korean government, and the upcoming 10th anniversary of the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on North Korean Human Rights may provide an opportunity for U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to give renewed focus to the rights situation. It’s time to refocus on what Biden can do on North Korean human rights