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Geostrategic thinking Pensiero geostrategico

Geostrategic environment (september 16, 2022)

TODAY IN EVIDENCE

TOPICS

  • (Cybersecurity) September 16, 2022. Farwa Sajjad, Infosecurity. Cyber-criminals are using new tactics to increase their chance of success in phishing attacks against various companies. Phishing is the most pressing cyber threat organizations face and will increase in the future. In 2021, 83% of organizations reported becoming victims of phishing attacks; in 2022, approximately 6 billion attacks are expected to happen. Are Phishing Scams Likely to Go Away Anytime Soon?
  • (Cybersecurity) September 16, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Cybersecurity agencies in the US, UK, Australia and Canada have warned that Iranian state-sponsored hackers are exploiting Log4j vulnerabilities in ransomware campaigns. Allies Warn of Iranian Ransom Attacks Using Log4Shell
  • (Cybersecurity) September 16, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Uber appears to have been breached again, after a threat actor reportedly accessed its email and cloud systems, code repositories, internal Slack account and HackerOne tickets.  Uber Hacker May Have Compromised Secret Bug Reports
  • (Cybersecurity) September 16, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Cryptocurrency scams are set to explode after researchers detected a triple-digit increase in registered domains in the first half of 2022, compared to the whole of last year. Crypto Scams Soar as Domains Surge 335%
  • (Geo-energy) September 14, 2022.  Chikako Baba and Jaewoo Lee, IMF blog. Billions of consumers around the world are seeing higher oil prices seep into the cost of living and wages. Filling the gas tank soon starts to cost more when crude prices climb, as does airfare, but higher energy costs also boost prices for all the products on store shelves. Workers seek higher wages to compensate for a loss in their purchasing power. Energy Shocks Amid Rapid Inflation Could Fuel Faster Wage Gains
  • (Health & Digital) September 16, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A new report from KLAS Research found that most healthcare organizations experienced reduced costs and shorter project timelines, with many reporting improved care coordination, while using Microsoft Cloud technologies. KLAS: Health Orgs Report Better Care Coordination with Microsoft Cloud
  • (Health & Digital) September 15, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. A new study published in JAMA Pediatrics found that an artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision-making tool can help improve antibiotic stewardship for diarrheal disease in settings with poor sanitation and hygiene. Artificial Intelligence Tool Helps Combat Antibiotic Resistance, Misuse
  • (Health & Digital) September 15, 2022. Shania Kennedy, Health IT Analytics. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is investing $130 million over the next four years through the NIH Common Fund’s Bridge to Artificial Intelligence (Bridge2AI) program to advance the use of AI by the biomedical and behavioral research communities. NIH Launches AI Program to Advance Biomedical, Behavioral Research

WORLDS

  • (Brazil) September 15, 2022. Valentina Sader, Atlantic Council. Brazil—Latin America’s largest economy and the fourth-largest democracy in the world—will elect its next president, governors, congress, and state-level assemblies in October 2022. This is one of the most momentous elections in recent years, a result of the inflection point that Brazil faces alongside concern about what may transpire on the day of the election and in the days afterward. This uncertainty, combined with global trends of declining democratic freedoms in recent years, suggests that in the aftermath of the October elections, Brazil has an opportunity to reinforce efforts to strengthen its institutions and recalibrate its democracy to meet domestic and global challenges. This issue brief compiles actionable recommendations for Brazil to do just that.  Democratic institutional strength ahead and beyond elections: The case of Brazil
  • (China – ASEAN) September 16, 2022. Xinhua. The 19th China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO), scheduled for Sept. 16 to 19 in Nanning, capital of south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, has attracted a total of 1,653 enterprises to its offline event. Enterprises flock to Nanning for China-ASEAN Expo
  • (China – Russia – Mongolia) September 16, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese President Xi Jinping held the sixth meeting of heads of state of China, Russia and Mongolia with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, and Mongolian counterpart, Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, on Thursday afternoon at the Forumlar Majmuasi Complex in Samarkand. Xi attends sixth meeting of heads of state of China, Russia, Mongolia
  • (China – USA) September 16, 2022. The Associated Press, Defense News. China announced sanctions on Friday against the chief executives of American defense contractors Raytheon and Boeing Defense over a major U.S. arms sale to rival Taiwan. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning did not specify what the sanctions would be against Gregory Hayes, chairman and CEO of Raytheon Technologies, and Ted Colbert, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, Space and Security. China sanctions Raytheon, Boeing Defense CEOs over Taiwan
  • (Europe) September 15, 2022. Atlantic Council. Winter is coming. As the European Union (EU) confronts Russia’s war in Ukraine and spiraling energy prices, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivered her State of the European Union Address on Wednesday in Strasbourg, France, with a focus on how the bloc needs to respond to the crisis. What’s next for European energy security? Our experts decipher the State of the European Union Address
  • (Germany – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Sebastian Sprenger, Defense News. German defense leaders on Thursday pledged additional weapons and equipment to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, announcing plans to deliver two multiple-launch rocket systems, known as MARS II, with 200 missiles and 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers. Under pressure, Germany pledges more military aid to Ukraine
  • (Iran) September 16, 2022. Al Jazeera. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has said that US sanctions must be lifted to reach a nuclear agreement, and there must be guarantees established to ensure their “lasting removal”. Iran’s Raisi says sanctions must be lifted to reach nuclear deal
  • (Kyrgyzstan – Tajikistan) September 16, 2022. Al Jazeera.  Officials from the Kyrgyz border guard have accused Tajik forces of opening fire on several of its outposts in an escalation of tension two days after a brief confrontation between the two Central Asian nations. Alleged ‘heavy weapon’ use in Kyrgyz-Tajik border dispute
  • (Mozambique) September 14, 2022. Casey Torgusson, Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, World Bank blogs. Digital technologies can provide an opportunity to re-write Mozambique’s story.   Access is a critical piece of this equation – expanding affordable, high-speed internet services, a.k.a “broadband” coverage to all communities across Mozambique and connecting people in their homes, businesses and on their mobile phones.  With access to broadband, people can get online to talk to or send money to far-flung family members, farmers can find better prices for their maize or cassava without being beholden to a middleman, an expectant mother in a rural village can consult with a doctor on her smartphone, a young adult in Maputo can learn car repair by watching videos on YouTube and set up a new business. The possibilities are almost endless.   Moving Mozambique Toward a Digital Future
  • (Myanmar) September 16, 2022. Ali MC, Al Jazeera. Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), established by the democratically-elected politicians removed from office in last year’s military coup, is calling for official recognition at this month’s 77th United Nations General Assembly. Who represents Myanmar? UN faces credentials pressure at assembly
  • (Nigeria) September 14, 2022. Omoniyi (Niyi) Alimi, John Gibson, World Bank blogs. Burning off natural gas during oil production (flaring) comes with significant environmental and economic costs. In addition to wasting a valuable source of energy, flaring has negative impact on human health. The practice is prevalent in oil-producing Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Nigeria, with the largest proven gas reserves in Africa, contributes the most to flaring on the continent The impact of gas flaring on child health in Nigeria
  • (Russia) September 15, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Not since the 1920s has there been such a large Russian emigration committed to change at home, with at least some members prepared to support or even organize violent attacks on the regime in Moscow. And so, it should come as no surprise that some now suspect that the Kremlin may be considering whether to engage in a replay of the stratagem Vladimir Lenin’s regime employed a century ago to geld and disorder such opponents, one long known as Operation Trust. Obviously, to be effective, this tactic is not being discussed by Russian officials themselves. For them to discuss the strategy would make it much less effective. But some in the Russian emigration are already expressing concerns that the Vladimir Putin regime—because of the dominance of the intelligence services and because of a Russian proclivity to use tactics that once worked again and again—may now do what Lenin and the Cheka did so effectively long ago. Émigré Anti-Putin Opposition Risks Becoming Victim of a New Trust Operation
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 16, 2022. Al Jazeera. Ukrainian authorities have found a mass grave in woods near the northeastern city of Izyum, days after recapturing it from occupying Russian forces. Ukraine finds mass burial site in Izyum after Russians driven out
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Vladimir Socor, The Jamestown Foundation. The Ukrainian forces’ offensive in Kharkiv region has liberated almost all its Russian-occupied territory. The Ukrainians have regained 8,500 square kilometers from September 6 through September 14, according to the latest report by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry in Kyiv (Ukrinform, September 14). That amounts to more than one quarter of the Kharkiv region’s area of 31,400 square kilometers. Russian forces seized that part of the region between late February and early March 2022 and installed an occupation administration, which has now been evicted. Ukraine Evicts Russian Occupation Administration from Kharkiv Region
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in eastern Ukraine, increasingly pressuring Russian positions and logistics lines in eastern Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk oblasts. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 15, 2022. Michael Druckman, Atlantic Council. With all eyes focused on Ukraine’s developing offensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson directions, it is worth pausing to reflect on the historic shifts in Ukrainian public opinion that are taking place as a result of the war. These changes are particularly visible in southern Ukraine, where historic sympathy for closer ties with Russia has been dramatically eroded by Vladimir Putin’s ongoing invasion. Putin’s self-defeating invasion turns southern Ukrainians away from Russia
  • (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) September 16, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday attended here the restricted session of the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Xi attends restricted session of SCO Samarkand summit
  • (USA) September 15, 2022. Marc Jarsulic, Center for American Progress. After the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, fiscal policy helped raise gross domestic product (GDP) above pre-pandemic levels. But as output and employment have grown, so has inflation. The year-on-year increase in the core consumer price index (CPI)—which measures prices of goods and services other than energy and food, which are usually more volatile—was 6.3 percent in August 2022. And the year-on-year increase in the overall CPI was 8.3 percent in August. Post-recession growth has taken place in an environment in which supply—of labor, manufactured goods, crude oil, natural gas, and food—has been and continues to be significantly disrupted. These negative supply shocks have been major contributors to core inflation and to energy and food inflation. Effective Inflation Control Requires Supply-Side Policy
  • (USA) September 15, 2022. Lauren C. Williams, Defense One. The Air Force’s chief information officer wants to do less spot-fixing of IT problems that pop up, and more to make networks, devices, and tools more reliable. And she knows that’s no easy lift. The Air Force Has A Plan To #Fixourcomputers and More
  • (USA) September 15, 2022.
  • (USA) September 15, 2022. With a small business innovation grant program favored by the Pentagon set to expire this month, Congress is racing to draft compromise reauthorization legislation that addresses concerns about companies abusing the awards process. Democrats and Republicans on the Small Business committees in both the House and Senate convened a so-called four corners meeting this week to negotiate draft legislation, which is in its final stages. Congress races to reauthorize innovation grants favored by Pentagon
  • (USA) September 15, 2022. Joe Gould, Defense News. The nominee to lead the U.S. nuclear arsenal said Thursday that supply chain snags that are pummeling the defense industrial base are also hurting Washington’s plans to modernize its aging nuclear arsenal. General: Supply chain problems are hurting nuclear modernization
  • (USA – Turkey) US Department of State. Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-Turkey Strategic Mechanism Dialogue
  • (USA – Ukraine) September 16, 2022.
  • (Zimbabwe) September 16, 2022.