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Geostrategic thinking Pensiero geostrategico

Geostrategic environment (september 21, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

IN EVIDENCE

  • In the last few months, the U.S. Air Force has modified Ukrainian MiG-29s to carry Western anti-radar missiles, turned U.S. strategic bombers into cargo carriers, and transformed airlifters into long-range strike aircraft, officials said this week, as Russia and the changing Indo-Pacific security environment have forced the service to think outside the box. Tara Copp for Defense One (USAF Puts HARMs on MiG-29s, Cruise Missiles on C-130s, Cargo in B-29s)
  • Ukraine, a country of over 40 million people, has seen about 15% of its population flee the country. Will many that have fled Ukraine return, or will families eventually be reunited abroad, possibly implying an even greater inflow of Ukrainians into Europe and elsewhere when the war is over? Giuseppe Porcaro sits down with Pauline Weil to discuss the implications of Ukrainian refugees’ situation for Ukraine and its future reconstruction efforts, for receiving countries and for the EU Common European Asylum System, as analysed in her upcoming paper co-authored with Uri Dadush. Bruegel (Will Ukraine’s refugees return?)
  • According to current estimates, the European Union spends about 9% of its gross domestic product on energy consumption. As a proportion of its income, this is the highest in over 40 years. By comparison, the United States currently spends 4.4% of its GDP on energy, which is low in comparison to its historical average.  Maria Demertzis, Bruegel (A cold winter)
  • The balance in Russian-Indian relations is shifting decidedly toward New Delhi. Russia’s break with the West and ever closer ties with China as a result of the war against Ukraine will make sustaining its partnership with India more challenging. Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Russia and India: A New Chapter)
  • Some 40% of US consumers have had their personal information stolen, compromised or misused in the past year, according to the Identity Theft Resource Center (ITRC). Phil Muncaster for Infosecurity (Two-Fifths of US Consumers Suffer Personal Data Theft)
  • The volume of malicious activity targeting upstream open source code repositories has hit triple-digit growth over the past three years, according to Sonatype. Phil Muncaster for Infosecurity (Open Source Repository Attacks Soar 700% in Three Years)
  • Russia at the moment is conducting combat operations not only with Ukraine’s armed forces, but with the collective West, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has said. TASS (Russia is at war not only with Ukraine, but with collective West)

TOPICS

  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Claroty’s research arm, Team82, has discovered several new vulnerabilities in Dataprobe’s iBoot–PDU (power distribution units). Multiple Vulnerabilities Discovered in Dataprobe’s iBoot-PDUs
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Jenai Marinkovic, Infosecurity. Cybersecurity and GRC capabilities are built upon what we call ‘The Golden Triangle,’ a framework comprising balance between People-Process-Technology. When we evaluate risk and design our control structures, we align them to this framework. The beauty is in the balance between the three. Fixing Our Breaking Human Controls
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. US video game publisher 2K has warned players of its titles not to click on links sent out by its help desk recently, as they are likely to be malicious. Video Game Publisher Admits Helpdesk Was Hijacked
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Congress created the Cyberspace Solarium Commission to develop a strategic approach to defending U.S. national and economic security. The Commission subsequently proposed a new approach of “layered cyber deterrence” and provided dozens of legislative and executive recommendations on how to reduce the probability and impact of significant cyberattacks. This tracker assesses the implementation of those recommendations. Cyberspace Solarium Commission Recommendations Tracker
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force is stepping up efforts to improve electromagnetic spectrum capabilities that are “nowhere near” where they need to be, according to Lt. Gen. Leah Lauderback. Air Force assembling electronic warfare ‘sprint’ to fix deficiencies
  • (Health & Digital) September 21, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. With financial support from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Eko aims to create a machine-learning algorithm for cardiovascular care that can detect conditions such as pulmonary hypertension (PH). NIH to Help Fund Development of ML Algorithm for Cardiovascular Care
  • (Health & Digital) September 20, 2022. Mark Melchionna, Health IT Analytics. Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), new research findings from the University of Minnesota indicate that the use of data science tools can enhance traditional methods of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reconstruction, resulting in image reconstruction on par with that achieved through deep learning. Data Science Tools Can Help Boost Speed, Quality of MRI Reconstruction

WORLDS

  • (China) September 21, 2022. Xinhua. China’s mobile Internet of things (IoT) has made remarkable progress in network and industrial capability, as well as application development, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. China’s mobile IoT connection reaches nearly 1.7 bln
  • (China) September 20, 2022. Alicia García-Herrero, The Jamestown Foundation. China’s decade-long economic slowdown is accelerating. The pace has picked up since former U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade war against China in early 2018, and even more so since the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020. This year has been particularly difficult as stubborn zero-COVID policies have ground the economy to a halt, further pushed by the bursting of the real estate bubble that had been China’s most important engine of growth for decades. The Economic Outlook for Xi’s Third Term: Mounting Challenges, Dwindling Fiscal and Monetary Options
  • (China) September 20, 2022. Joel Wuthnow, The Jamestown Foundation. Compared to his predecessors, Xi Jinping has been relatively focused on military modernization, which he views as a prerequisite for achieving the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by mid-century (Xinhua, July 1). Modernization is a process and not an endpoint; Xi will face new tasks and challenges after the 20th Party Congress. This article previews changes in China’s military high command next month, outlines the next steps for People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and identifies challenges that could frustrate Xi and his “strong army” vision in the years ahead. Will PLA Modernization Continue Apace in Xi’s Second Decade?
  • (China – GCC Countries) September 20, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met here on Monday with foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Chinese FM meets foreign ministers of GCC countries
  • (China – Gulf of Aden) September 21, 2022. Xinhua. The 42nd fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy set out from a military port in east China’s Shandong Province on Wednesday to take over an escort mission from the 41st naval fleet in the Gulf of Aden and the waters off Somalia. China sends new naval fleet on Gulf of Aden escort mission
  • (China – MENA Region) September 20, 2022. Passant Mamdouh Ridwan, East Asia Forum. China’s growing influence in the global technological market reflects Beijing’s ambition to be a leading player in digital technology. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for China to dominate advanced technology manufacturing by 2025. The Digital Silk Road (DSR), launched in 2015 as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, reflects this goal of developing digital infrastructure at home and overseas. China’s technology is a mixed blessing for MENA states
  • (China – Middle East) September 21, 2022. Global Times. People in the Middle East are the masters of their own fate, and it is they who should take the lead in the region’s security affairs, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the 2nd Middle East Security Forum held by the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing on Wednesday.  Middle East people should take lead in region’s security affairs, reject long-arm jurisdiction: Chinese FM
  • (China – Middle East) September 21, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday made four proposals for the promotion of peace and stability in the Middle East. Chinese FM makes four proposals for security in Middle East
  • (China – Shanghai Cooperation Organization) September 21, 2022. Xie Wenting and Lin Xiaoyi, Global Times. The role of China as a founding member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is enormous in its formation and further development and it continues to be the leading factor in facilitating economic and trade cooperation within the SCO, former Uzbek deputy prime minister and former minister of foreign affairs of Uzbekistan Saidkasimov Saidmukhtar told the Global Times in an exclusive interview.  China to play important role in further development of SCO: former Uzbek deputy prime minister
  • (Europe) September 21, 2022. Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, Georg Zachmann, Bruegel. The current increase in wholesale energy prices in Europe has prompted governments to put in place measures to shield consumers from the direct impact of rising prices. The purpose of this dataset is to track and give a (non-exhaustive) overview of the different policies used by countries at national level to mitigate the effect of the price spike for consumers. National policies to shield consumers from rising energy prices
  • (Europe) September 20, 2022. Georg Zachmann, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Benjamin McWilliams, Bruegel.  This dataset aggregates daily data on European natural gas import flows and storage levels. European natural gas imports (bruegel.org)
  • (Europe) September 20, 2022. Reena Badiani-MagnussonMona PrasadEmilija TimmisGallina Vincelette, and Collette Wheeler, Brookings. The war in Ukraine and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have delivered two large shocks in quick succession—echoing memories of anemic growth in the European Union (EU) after the global financial crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. Two large shocks in quick succession—how can Europe avoid another decade of growth disappointment?
  • (Europe – JCPOA – Iran) September 21, 2022. IRNA. President of the European Council Charles Michel in a Twitter post early on Wednesday expressed the European Union’s support for “immediate restoration” of the July 2015 nuclear deal, aka Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). EU after ‘immediate restoration’ of JCPOA
  • (Iran) September 21, 2022. IRNA. Capacity of Iran’s petrochemical industry will have over twofold increase within next ten years, a senior Iranian official announced on Wednesday. Iran petrochemical capacity to double in next decade
  • (Iran) September 21, 2022. IRNA. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi said that Iran is ready to host the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions. Iran is ready to host conference on world religions: President Raisi
  • (Japan) September 21, 2022. Neil Melvin, RUSI. Japan is looking to play a larger role in global security as the country faces new external threats. It is increasing commitments to national defence and seeking to move beyond key political and constitutional constraints placed on the country’s security policies after the Second World War. Episode 33: How is Japan Rethinking Its Role in International Security?
  • (Japan) September 21, 2022. Hiroshi Ono, East Asia Forum. A city clerk in the western prefecture of Yamaguchi carries a floppy disk containing account information for 463 residents to a local bank. He has every intention of transferring payments to the residents. But somewhere between the clerk’s instructions and the bank’s processing of the transaction, there is a miscommunication. Supply and demand issues hinder Japanese digital transformation
  • (Netherlands) September 20, 2022. Stephan Slingerland, French Institute of International Relations. For decades, the large Groningen gas field has been a central pillar of the Dutch welfare state. The availability of gas was so self-evident that many generations still identify with the slogan “Nederland gasland” (“The Netherlands, a gas country”). The nearing end of Dutch gas now requires a mentality shift. Redefining the Netherlands’ Energy Future : Societal Implications of the Nearing End of Dutch Natural Gas
  • (North Korea) September 21, 2022. Sasha Erskine, RUSI. North Korea’s transnational criminal activities are a growing concern not only for its immediate neighbours, but also for the wider international community. North Korea’s Illicit Means of Generating Foreign Revenue
  • (Russia – Central Asia) September 21, 2022. Bermet Talant, The Interpreter. As the Russian army pulled back the troops after a series of humiliating defeats in north-east Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Uzbekistan to attend a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on 15-16 September. The war in Ukraine is pushing Central Asia away from Russia | Lowy Institute
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. Carl Bildt, Project Syndicate, The Strategist. When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war of aggression against Ukraine on 24 February, he evidently expected a quick and easy victory. Having implied in his speeches that Ukraine was a flimsy fiction of a nation, he assumed that it was bound to collapse, although he committed almost 85% of Russia’s active-duty army to his so-called ‘special operation’. Winter is coming, and Putin is failing
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 20, 2022. Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian-appointed occupation officials in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts announced on September 20 that they will hold a “referendum” on acceding to Russia, with a vote taking place from September 23-27. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. Karin von Hippel, RUSI. The UN General Assembly annual session is often dismissed as just a platform for grand speeches. This year, however, it may act as a platform for some useful initiatives on Ukraine. Seizing the Moment: The UN General Assembly and Ukraine
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. More than 75 years have passed since the establishment of the United Nations as a guardian of global peace “we are still witnessing the devastation in Ukraine and around the world”, said Japanese Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, during his speech to the UN General Assembly. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‘tramples on the UN Charter’ says Japanese Prime Minister
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. The major challenges facing humanity “complex and interlocking,” Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), said on Tuesday evening, while he also noted that the DRC had faced decades of ‘agression’ at the hands of a neighbouring country.  DR Congo President denounces ‘aggression’ by Rwanda, calls on UN to support African-led mediation
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. The current session of the UN General Assembly provides a “solemn opportunity” to consider common challenges that are of serious concern to the future of humanity, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of the Central African Republic (CAR) told the global gathering on Tuesday. Central African Republic President calls for protecting the environment
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. President Emmanuel Macron of France on Tuesday called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a return to “imperialism” and said that those who remained silent or were “secretly complicit” were engaging in a “new cynicism” that was eroding the global order. Macron condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a ‘return to imperialism’, calls on UN to support path to peace
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. The landmark agreement to export grain out of war-torn Ukraine is among the UN’s greatest accomplishments in recent decades, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the General Assembly on Tuesday.  Türkiye: Ukraine grain export deal among UN’s greatest recent accomplishments
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. During his first speech at the General Assembly as the President of Colombia, Gustavo Petro said that the world’s addiction to money, oil and carbon is destroying the rainforest and its people under the excuse of a “hypocritical” war against drugs. Irrational war on drugs, destruction of the Amazon, expose humanity’s failures, Colombia’s Petro tells UN
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro kicked off the annual high-level debate of the United Nations General Assembly citing his nation’s achievements in addressing an array of challenges including public health, economic recovery and sustainable development. Domestic action lays foundation for addressing global challenges, Brazil’s Bolsonaro tells UN
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. At what he called “the most consequential moment of the last four decades,” General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi banged the ceremonial gavel to open the UN General Debate, calling for “solutions through solidarity, sustainability and science” – his motto for the Assembly’s 77th session. World’s complex challenges are great, but not insurmountable, Assembly President says, opening 77th session
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. With people from all points of the globe crying out for relief and hope, international action on major challenges – from climate to conflict and securing sustainable development – is paralyzed by dysfunction and held hostage to geopolitical tensions, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned on Tuesday. Guterres calls for ‘coalition of the world’ to overcome divisions, provide hope in place of turmoil