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Geostrategic thinking

Geostrategic environment (september 22, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

THINKING COMPLEX

Every day, reviewing analyses and news from global think tanks, we see how the world is evolving in the direction of separation.

There is a nostalgia for nation states, in the righteous determination to protect the interests of individual countries. The ‘reserved voice’ of diplomacy is missing at every level.

The words that narrate the world are “defensive” and linear, as if everything was predictable and there was no need for the complex approach to build alternative scenarios that include the actual dynamics of reality: those that show us an ungoverned systemic interrelationship (globalisation).

The world is full of wars. There are those fought by armies and via cyber, and there are those involving growing social unrest. There is not only a lack of diplomacy but, above all, a lack of political visions in a world increasingly detached from the ruling classes.

(by M.E.)

IN EVIDENCE

  • Future technology is often viewed as an all-encompassing answer to climate change, even in the defence sector. The armed forces have placed a bet on technology with the expectation that technological breakthroughs will facilitate their ability to operate in environments affected by climate change. RUSI (Episode 4: A Bet on Technology?)
  • The world’s most populous country and its smallest state have little in common with one exception: how they select their leader. Like the Vatican, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shrouds its leadership selection process in secrecy.  Yu Jie for Chatham House (A guide to the Chinese Communist Party’s National Congress)
  • Digital technology permeates today’s society. From communicating across borders to delivering essential services, it is transforming how people go about their daily lives and how governments function. Yet to bring about meaningful society-wide impact, this transformation should be safe, trusted and inclusive. World Economic Forum (How inclusive digital infrastructure can help achieve the SDGs)
  • World powers must take Putin’s threat seriously, stop the escalation and seek a diplomatic solution. Marwan Bishara for Al Jazeera (Beware the prospect of a nuclear calamity)
  • Republic of Kazakhstan hosted the Seventh Congress of the Leaders of the World and Traditional Religions on 14-15 September 2022. Former President Nursultan Nazarbayev formulated this initiative to promote dialogue and discussion among different religions, cultures, and civilizations in order to prevent and resolve conflicts. The seventh Congress took place at a time when the world is still recuperating from the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis. The theme of this year’s congress, “The Role of World Religious Leaders in Human Spiritual and Social Development in the Post-Pandemic Period,” centred on finding answers to the current issues. The high level participation is one of the distinguishing characteristics of the VII Congress. While the first congress was attended by 17 delegations from the 23 countries, the VII Congress was attended by over 100 representatives from 50 nations of the world. Pravesh Kumar Gupta for VIF (Kazakhstan at the Spotlight of a Constructive Dialogue between different Religions and Cultures: President Tokayev)
  • Food security is key in an age of uncertainties. Growing climate-related risks, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic shocks make imports costlier than ever before—in both tangible and intangible terms. India’s agriculture sector’s GDP stands at US$ 262 billion (as of 2018-19), demonstrating a low dependence on imports. Achieving self-reliance and sustainability in agriculture has led to a critical policy switch. It has enabled a shift from increased food grain output being the sole point of focus to improving farmer incomes. This is also expected to promote farmers’ welfare, allowing farmers to adopt technological inputs into existing agrarian processes, especially for mitigating loss and damages to agricultural produce through innovative agri-tech solutions that can minimise losses along the lifecycle of agricultural commodities. Charmi Mehta, ORF (Minimising losses to achieve agricultural resilience)
  • Recent years have seen increasing publicity regarding national security challenges vis-à-vis China, primarily as to issues of influence, espionage, and technology sharing. In Israel, public attention has focused on infrastructure, investments, and 5G communications. However, the risks of transferring technology are not limited to hi-tech, and exist in academia as well, particularly the research efforts that are an important source for knowledge growth and technology – including in dual-use domains. Is Israel prepared for the security challenge regarding academic relations with China? What are the potential implications of these relations, their inherent risks, and possible measures to contain them? Casey Babb for INSS (Proceed with Caution: Israeli Research Collaboration with China)
  • The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) released a new report, “Rewire: Semiconductors and U.S. Industrial Policy,” from author Chris Miller, associate professor at the Fletcher School and Jeane Kirkpatrick visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Center for a New American Security (New CNAS Report: “Rewire: Semiconductors and U.S. Industrial Policy”)
  • State-backed Iranian threat actors were able to remain undetected inside an Albanian government network for 14 months before deploying destructive malware in July 2022, a new report has revealed. Phil Muncaster for Infosecurity (Iranian Hackers Hid in Albanian Networks for Over a Year)
  • Cyberattacks and geopolitics threaten today’s increasingly digital world, leading to the disruption of essential supplies such as power and water. ESA, the European Commission and space companies in Europe are teaming up to work towards a highly secure, satellite-enabled connectivity system for the EU – based on the unbreakable laws of physics.  ESA (Quantum encryption to boost European autonomy)
  • Xi Jinping is unlikely to abandon his “old friend” Vladimir Putin, even as the Russian leader’s decision to send thousands more troops to Ukraine and his nuclear threats strain Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow, experts said. Brenda Goh for Reuters. Analysis: As Putin escalates Ukraine war, China stands awkwardly by him
  • Türkiye’s diplomacy vis-à-vis the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has demonstrated Ankara’s special position in global affairs. Türkiye plays a unique role in international efforts to resolve this seven-month-old conflict as a NATO member which staunchly supports Ukraine’s territorial dignity and has armed Kyiv with Bayraktar TB2 drones, while also maintaining complicated albeit respectful and cooperative relations with Moscow. Giorgio Cafiero for Anadolu Agency (The value of Turkish mediation)
  • The weeklong showcase of world-leader speeches that lead off the annual and increasingly antiquated United Nations General Assembly is always entertaining, and sometimes terrifying. What it isn’t, generally speaking, is prelude to real change. Kevin Baron for Defense One (In NYC, a Bronx Cheer for Putin, Trump, and the Aging UN)
  • The British government has ordered an update of its defense and security review published last year and hopes to complete a revised plan by the end of 2022, Prime Minister Liz Truss has announcedAndrew Chuter for Defense News (Britain revises its defense plans in light of Russia’s war)
  • One of the greatest nightmares for the countries of Central Asia; outside powers, such as Russia, China and the United States, who are worried about regional stability; and even for Kabul itself, which fears regional blowback, is that radicals from Afghanistan will cross into the region and destabilize the situation. And that reality appears to be becoming true. Marat Imankulov, secretary of the Kyrgyzstani Security Council, claims his country’s special services have now identified Afghans who are fighting for Tajikistan in the latest round of border violence between the two countries. Paul Globe for The Jamestown Foundation (Islamist Radicals From Afghanistan Now Fighting for Tajikistan Against Kyrgyzstan)
  • On September 3, an estimated 70,000 people gathered around Wenceslaus Square in central Prague to protest against the incumbent government of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala. The demonstration centered on cost-of-living complaints incurred by increasing energy costs, rapidly rising inflation and perceived overly generous aid to Ukraine. While the protest was largely driven by pocketbook factors, the 427,000 Ukrainian refugees who were granted temporary protection status (equivalent to 4 percent of the Czech population, which is the highest per capita in the EU) certainly played a factor. Daniel McVicar for The Jamestown Foundation (Costs of Accommodating the Most Ukrainian Refugees Per Capita in the EU: The Czech Case)
  • Seven months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a new, perilous step: mobilizing his military reserves. Atlantic Council (Experts react: Putin gambles by escalating his war in Ukraine. What will happen next?)

TOPICS

  • (Cybersecurity) September 22, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity.
    Twitter has remediated an issue that allowed accounts to stay logged in across multiple devices even after a voluntary password reset. Twitter Password Reset Bug May Have Exposed User Accounts
  • (Cybersecurity) September 22, 2022. Phil Muncaster, Infosecurity. Payment authentication experts have warned that most online banking fraud today is the result of customers being duped into paying scammers. Authorized Push Payment Surges to 75% of Banking Fraud
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Microsoft has released a new update bringing several new security features to its Windows 11 operating system (OS). Microsoft Upgrades Windows 11 With New Security Features
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. Trellix has announced the establishment of the Trellix Advanced Research Center, a facility and project aimed at creating real–time intelligence and threat indicators to help customers detect, respond and remediate the latest cybersecurity threats. 350K Open-Source Projects At Risk of Supply Chain Vulnerability
  • (Cybersecurity) September 21, 2022. , Infosecurity. The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), part of GCHQ, has launched two pieces of guidance on September 21, 2022 to help organizations protect themselves and their customers online. NCSC: British Retailers Need to Move Beyond Passwords
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The submarine industrial base, already strained by demand for new construction, may need to accelerate its production of spare parts to alleviate submarine maintenance woes. Submarine fleet needs more spare parts to stem maintenance delays
  • (Defense – Military  Security) September 21, 2022. Rachel S. Cohen, Defense News. Air Force Special Operations Command plans to replace components of its CV-22 Ospreys following a deep dive into a potentially fatal propulsion issue that has persisted for more than a decade. Special ops boss hopes replacing CV-22 clutches will keep airmen safe
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Tom Kington, Defense News. The Italian Air Force and Navy have finally figured out how to manage their small fleets of F-35Bs, and it goes something like “Joint training and operations, but separate bases.”. Joint but apart: Italian Navy and Air Force settle on F-35B plan
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Catherine Buchaniec, Defense News. With one field experiment under its belt, the Pentagon’s research and development agency began a second round of off-road testing for its autonomous vehicle program, this time turning to the steep hills of central California. DARPA autonomous vehicles take on California hills in off-road testing
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Courtney Albon, Defense News. The director of the Space Rapid Capabilities Office, created in 2018 to quickly develop prototypes of satellites and other urgently needed military technology, said the Space Force may not be ready when it begins delivering systems this year. Is Space Force moving fast enough for its Rapid Capabilities Office?
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Irene Loewenson, Defense News. A hugely powerful helicopter whose mechanical issues had delayed it from becoming operational finally deployed to its first Marine training exercise in August in the mountains of Idaho. Hugely powerful new Marine helicopter makes training exercise debut
  • (Defense – Military – Security) September 21, 2022. Rod McGuirk, The Associated Press, Defense News. A military exercise in Fiji involving the United States, Britain, Australia and New Zealand ends this week as the traditional allies counter China’s growing influence in the region. US, UK join Pacific allies in Fijian military exercise
  • (Digital & Tech) September 22, 2022. Daniel Byman, Lawfare. Technology companies are more active than ever in trying to stop terrorists, white supremacists, conspiracy theorists, and other hateful individuals, organizations, and movements from exploiting their platforms, but government and public pressure to do more is growing. Content Moderation Tools to Stop Extremism
  • (Digital & Tech) September 21, 2022. Chris Meserole, Brookings. Few things are as vital to democracy as the free flow of information. If an enlightened citizenry is essential for democracy, as Thomas Jefferson suggested, then citizens need to a way to be kept informed. For most of the modern era, that role has been played by the press—and especially the editors and producers who exercise control over what news to publish and air.  Yet as the flow of information has changed, the distribution and consumption of news has increasingly shifted away from traditional media and toward social media and digital platforms, with over a quarter of Americans now getting news from YouTube alone and more than half from social media. How do recommender systems work on digital platforms?
  • (Global Education) September 22, 2022. Vikas Pota, World Economic Forum. World leaders gathered this September to grapple with the global learning crisis at the UN’s Transforming Education summit. Bringing education to the top of the global political agenda, it’s a vital initiative. Governments must learn from teachers to solve the global education crisis
  • (Health & Digital) September 21, 2022. Marc Melchionna, Health IT Analytics.  Published in Acta Neuropathologica Communications, new research from the Mount Sinai Health System found that an artificial intelligence (AI) method can detect microscopic abnormalities in brain tissues that may be early indicators of Alzheimer’s Disease.  Researchers Leverage AI to Detect Causes of Alzheimer’s Disease
  • (Illicit Finance) September 22, 2022. Isabella Chase, Maria Nizzero, Olivia Kearney and Sarah Manney, RUSI. In July 2021, RUSI established the Taskforce on a Transatlantic Response to Illicit Finance (TARIF). TARIF set out to explore the rising acknowledgement in US and UK governments that illicit finance, generated by corruption and kleptocracy, is not only having a negative impact on their own societies, security and financial integrity, but also on that of the wider democratic world. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent economic response emphasised the need to restrict the financial influence of corrupt actors and ensure that the US and the UK are hostile environments for illicit finance. The Illicit Finance Threat to Democracies: A Transatlantic Response

WORLDS

  • (Afghanistan) September 20, 2022. Lisa CurtisAnnie Pforzheimer and Jan Mohammad Jahid, Center for a New American Security. Human rights in Afghanistan, especially those of women and girls, have deteriorated sharply during the first year of Taliban rule. The very real prospect of losing a generation of Afghan girls and boys as civil society suffers under the Taliban’s extreme and repressive policies makes finding any possible levers of international influence over the Taliban necessary and urgent—even if few good options exist. International Community Must Do More to Protect Human Rights in Afghanistan
  • (Afghanistan – China) September 22, 2022. Xinhua. The land corridor through railroad has linked landlocked Afghanistan to China as the first freight train arrived in the border town of Hairatan in Afghanistan’s northern Balkh province on Thursday. Land corridor via rail connects Afghanistan to China as 1st freight arrives
  • (Africa) September 21, 2022. Ibrahim Al-bakri Nyei, Al Jazeera. Autocratic regimes in Africa don’t change their stripes. They do, however, try and disguise them. African autocrats have new allies: Street goons
  • (Argentina) September 21, 2022. José Higuera, Defense News.  Argentina’s government has told lawmakers that it plans to spend about $684 million to procure new fighter jets and build related infrastructure. Argentina eyes $664 million for fighter jets
  • (Armenia – Azerbaijan) September 20, 2022. Vasif Huseynov, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 13, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed that the Armenian Armed Forces had committed large-scale provocations in the areas of Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin at the Azerbaijani-Armenian border (Mod.gov.az, September 13). Armenia denies these allegations (Armradio.am, September 13). Azerbaijan and Armenia Agree to Start Work on Peace Treaty (Part One)
  • (Belarus) September 21, 2022. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. Oleg Manaev, a seasoned Belarusian sociologist, whose polling firm conducted quarterly national surveys of Belarusians from the early 1990s until 2016, when it was shut down by the Minsk authorities, made a robustly substantiated statement that is at loggerheads with what Belarusian opposition has been stating since 2020. According to the opposition’s position, the pattern of political division in Belarus is characterized by President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and his law enforcement personnel siding against Belarusian society at large. What Did Lukashenka’s Open History Lesson Demonstrate?
  • (China) September 22, 2022. Xinhua.  The main structure of China’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage base under construction was completed Thursday in east China’s Jiangsu Province as the last super-sized storage tank was capped. China’s largest LNG storage base under construction completes main structure
  • (China) September 21, 2022. Xinhua. China has made notable achievements in its construction of a comprehensive transport system over the last decade, a report from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. China’s transport infrastructure greatly improves over last decade: report
  • (China) September 22, 2022. Xinhua. China will stay committed to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality amid recent setbacks in global carbon reduction efforts as some countries fell back on coal plants to tide over an energy crunch, an official said Thursday. China committed to carbon goals despite global volatility
  • (China) September 21, 2022. Mike Yeo, Defense News. China is expanding its submarine base on the edge of the South China Sea, with satellite photos showing it’s building two new piers. Satellite images reveal Chinese expansion of submarine base
  • (China – Serbia) September 22, 2022. Global Times. China and Serbia, who are trust-worthy partners, can rely on each other with the promoted bilateral friendship and strengthened mutual trust during the fight against COVID-19 epidemic, said Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in New York on Wednesday. China and Serbia are trust-worthy, reliable partners: Chinese SC & FM
  • (China – Uzbekistan – Kyrgyzstan) September 22, 2022. Global Times. On the sidelines of the recently concluded summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed a long-anticipated agreement on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway construction project on September 14, according to media reports, marking a new groundbreaking moment in the development of the historical railway line after nearly 20 years of negotiations. China, Uzbekistan see closer bond under BRI
  • (Ethiopia – Tigray) September 22, 2022. Mehari Taddele Maru, Al Jazeera. On August 24, 2022, the wheels fell off an uneasy nine-month truce between the Ethiopian and Tigrayan governments, with an enormous military assault across dozens of fronts in Tigray. What Ethiopia and Tigray need for peace talks to succeed
  • (India) September 19, 2022. Dorothy Ashmita Biswas, Energy and Resources Institute. Two recent developments in the Indian Parliament indicate that climate policy is getting stronger not only in long-term targets but also in its legal backing. On August 3, the Indian Cabinet approved the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs). A few days later, two Bills were introduced in the Lok Sabha amending the Energy Conservation Act and the Electricity Act of India. The Direction of India’s Climate Policy
  • (India) September 19, 2022. Ashok Pathak, VIF. In 2013 India was the top importer of arms. This dubious distinction stayed for the next five years- accounting for 12% of total global imports by all the countries. Though China spent three times more than India during this period her import bill was much less than that of India. In 2017 India’s arms imports decreased for the first time since 1991. During the period 2017 to 2021 while China’s dependency on arms imports increased and it overtook India as a bigger arms importer, India’s imports fell from $19432 million to $ 15356 million with a net fall of $4076 million. Meanwhile India’s exports of arms increased from Rs 1521 crores in 2016-17 to Rs 8434 crores in 2020-21. It had reached Rs 10745 crores in 2018-19. The government plans to export arms worth Rs 35000 crores by 2025. Indigenization of Defence Production: India’s Journey from Vision to Outcomes
  • (India) September 22, 2022. Karnik Neel Nitin, ORF. In recent years, the winter season, especially in the Northern states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh has been marked by stubble burning. This has not only contributed to poor air quality in North India but affects the entire country. A study conducted by Lancet in December 2020 estimated that in 2019, nearly 1.7 million premature deaths in India were due to air pollution. In addition to human costs, air pollution also has economic costs. India faced economic losses of an estimated US$36 billion annually which is nearly 1.736 percent of its GDP, due to premature deaths and morbidity caused by air pollution. A four-pronged approach to tackle air pollution
  • (India) September 22, 2022. Harsh V. Pant, Yogesh Joshi, ORF. In 1961, India became the first country in the so-called Third World to acquire and operate an aircraft carrier, a Majestic-class ship purchased from the British and commissioned as the INS Vikrant. The ship played a role in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War, used during a blockade on all shipping between the eastern and western parts of Pakistan. The Indian Navy has since striven to continuously maintain carrier-based task forces—comprising destroyers, frigates, submarines, and other supporting vessels but led by a fleet carrier. However, these task forces have always relied on foreign carriers and aircraft. Why India Needs More Aircraft Carriers
  • (India) September 21, 2022. Rumi Aijaz, ORF. The Delhi government needs to improve the provision of adequate and clean water to its citizens. According to the 2021-22 budget of the Delhi Jal Board, the water demand (1,150 mgd) and supply (935 mgd) gap in the national capital is about 215 million gallons per day (mgd). This gap is determined based on water demand of 50 gallons per capita daily (gpcd) for a projected population of 23 million in 2021. Water augmentation measures for Delhi
  • (India) September 22, 2022. Deepa M Ollapally, East Asia Forum. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coincided with a debate over whether to call US–China tensions ‘a new Cold War’ and a ‘no limits’ friendship between Russia and China. As the United States raced to place sanctions on Moscow, many in the Global South found themselves caught in the crosshairs of a realignment against Russia. India goes its own way on global geopolitics
  • (India – Japan) September 20, 2022.  Rajaram Panda, VIF. India and Japan held the second 2+2 Foreign and Defence Ministerial meeting in Tokyo on 8 September 2022. The meeting took place more than five months after Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited India for the annual India-Japan summit. This year too marks 70th years of diplomatic relations between the two countries. While India was represented by Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Japan was represented by their counterparts Hayashi Yoshimasa and Hamada Yasukazu. Second India-Japan 2+2 Dialogue: Major Take Away
  • (India – Shanghai Cooperation Organization) September 22, 2022. Harsh V. Pant, ORF. For all the pomp and ceremony at last week’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, its defining image is likely to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek peace in Ukraine, telling the Russian leader that “today’s era is not one for war.” While this has been a consistent position of New Delhi ever since the Ukraine war started earlier this year in February, Modi’s public articulation of it underscored growing challenges for Russia in a conflict that is not going according to Kremlin’s plans. India and the SCO: A Parade of Disconnect
  • (Indonesia) September 21, 2022. Rodrigo CastilloLilly Blumenthal, and Caitlin Purdy, Brookings. Indonesia—the world’s largest nickel miner—is making moves to become a key player in the electric vehicle supply chain. Most of Indonesia’s nickel output is currently Class 2 nickel, a low-purity type used for stainless steel. The country’s government and the mining sector are  determined to transform its nickel industry to meet the rising demand for Class 1 nickel, a crucial component for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Indonesia’s electric vehicle batteries dream has a dirty nickel problem
  • (Iran – Russia – Turkey) September 22, 2022. IRNA. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and his Russian and Turkish counterparts Sergei Lavrov and Mevlüt Cavusoglu respectively held a joint meeting here on the sidelines of the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly. Iranian, Russian & Turkish FMs hold joint meeting in NY
  • (Iran – South Caucasus region) September 21, 2022. IRNA. The Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission issued a statement on Wednesday on the latest border clashes in the South Caucasus region, stressing the need for preserving the internationally recognized borders of the countries and safeguarding their territorial integrity. Iran parliamentary commission calls for protecting countries’ territorial integrity
  • (Israel – Turkey) September 22, 2022. , INSS. The meeting between Prime Minister Yair Lapid and the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly was the first meeting between a Prime Minister of Israel and Erdogan since 2008. That year the Turkish leader met with Ehud Olmert, when Erdogan brokered indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria. The Lapid-Erdogan Meeting: Relations between Turkey and Israel Continue to Warm
  • (Malaysia) September 21, 2022. Ömer Faruk Yildiz, East Asia Forum. After four years of a tiring judicial process, Malaysia’s Federal Court finally upheld the High Court’s decision to sentence former prime minister Najib Razak to 12 years in jail for his involvement in the corruption of 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) and the Strategic Resource Company. Najib’s prison politics rock Malaysia
  • (Mediterranean Sea) September 22, 2022. ESA. Many parts of Europe saw record-breaking temperatures over the summer, but it wasn’t just the continental mainland that was affected: the Mediterranean Sea also suffered a major marine heatwave. An ESA-funded project, CAREHeat, detected one of the most intense Mediterranean marine heatwaves observed during the satellite era – with sea surface temperatures reaching 5°C higher than average. Mediterranean Sea hit by marine heatwave
  • (Russia) September 22, 2022. Emily Ferris, RUSI. President Vladimir Putin on 21 September addressed the nation for the first time since the war began in February. In it he announced a partial mobilisation of Russian forces. This coincided with a decree that the State Duma (parliament) pushed through the day before, in which it amended the Criminal Code to increase punishments for desertion. Vladimir Putin’s Speech – Scrutinised
  • (Russia) September 21,  2022.  Aslan Doukaev, The Jamestown Foundation. August is said to be the cruelest month in Russia—one that brings major political upheavals (see Prism, August 18, 1995), embarrassing setbacks on the battlefield (CNN, August 9, 1996) and various assorted catastrophes, both natural and man-made. But one could make an equally strong case for September, which has been marked, among other things, by the deadly apartment house bombings in 1999 that led to the Second Chechen War (Nazavisimaya gazeta, September 10, 1999) and the carnage five years later at Beslan (see North Caucasus Weekly, September 15, 2004), which impelled the Kremlin to scrap popular elections of Russian governors. And though September 2022 is not over yet, it has already delivered heaps of instability for the Kremlin, making one wonder what reactions may follow from some quarters. Chechen Leader Lambasts Russian Defense Ministry for Failures in Ukraine
  • (Russia) September 20, 2022. Kseniya Kirillova, The Jamestown Foundation.  Despite unprecedented repression by the Russian authorities against anyone who doubts the necessity of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, more citizens are finding the courage to speak out. Failure in Ukraine Increases Moscow’s Repression and Citizens’ Distrust
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. Marcus Weisgerber. Defense One. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to call up 300,000 reservists should prod the West to send the longer-range artillery and more technologically advanced weapons that Kyiv will need to press its advantage in the harsh winter months ahead, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister said Wednesday. Ukraine: Russia’s Draft, Setbacks Mean It’s Time for More Advanced Weapons
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. Todd South, Defense News. Mobility tactics, advanced technology and a workshop mentality for fixing battlefield problems all point to Ukrainian success fighting the Russian invasion. Use us for combat zone tests, Ukraine minister tells US war industry
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022.
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. Max Bergmann, Center for Strategic & International Studies. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s announcement on September 21 of a partial mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists to fight in Ukraine is the clearest evidence yet his regime is in grave danger. Putin is stuck in a quagmire, where the clearest way out is to stop, turn around, and go back out of Ukraine the way he came in. Yet leaders stuck in an unwinnable war often just wade deeper into the muck. Putin is following that well-charted path, and his regime may not survive.  Putin Wades Deeper into the Quagmire
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. IAEA. Renewed shelling early on Wednesday morning at the site of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) damaged cables providing electricity to one of its six units, temporarily forcing this reactor to rely on emergency diesel generators for the power it needs for essential safety functions, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed at the site by senior Ukrainian operating staff. Update 105 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 21, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Mason Clark, Kat Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of “partial mobilization” on September 21 reflected many problems Russia faces in its faltering invasion of Ukraine that Moscow is unlikely to be able to resolve in the coming months. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 21
  • (Turkey) September 19, 2022. VIF. Amb. Anil Trigunayat, Distinguished Fellow at VIF analyses, “Turkey’s Current Strategic Profile” by addressing Ankara’s strategic and foreign policy priorities in the context of Russia-Ukraine crisis; identifies the reasons for rapprochement between Turkey and Israel and underlines the key areas in India-Turkey relations. Turkey’s Current Strategic Profile
  • (Turkey – India) September 21, 2022. Duygu Cagla Bayram, Anadolu Agency. Think of two nations with an accumulation of a significant history of civilizations that have managed to become two modern nation-states. Both Türkiye and India have managed to making of a unique modern state and society. The founder of the Republic of Türkiye Mustafa Kemal Atatürk (father of Turks) built the modern, liberal, secular and democratic nation, while Indians, led by most prominently Mohandas Karamchand (Mahatma) Gandhi, stood against the imperialism and established their unique nation. Türkiye-India ties have a bright future ahead
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. With a full-scale war of aggression under way in Europe, the General Assembly was meeting this year “in a new geopolitical era that demands those who believe in the principles of the United Nations to stand up,” according to Elizabeth Truss, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. ‘The story of 2022 is freedom fighting back’ against aggression, UK Prime Minister Truss says in UN speech
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Russia must be punished for its “illegal war” against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday – part of a “peace formula” that also calls for greater civilian protection and defense support.  Ukrainian President outlines peace formula that punishes aggression, restores security
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. It was doubtful that any generation of Earth’s inhabitants has ever witnessed “such a perfect storm of global economic chaos, a war with global consequences, and an unwillingness or inability to find a consensus to deal with the catastrophe,” the President of Ghana told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday. As global economic crises ‘pile up’, Ghanaian leader says it’s time for urgent attention
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Taking the rostrum at the annual United Nations General Assembly, Iran’s President decried as a great injustice the “double standard” exhibited by Western nations towards what he described as his country’s peaceful nuclear activities. At UN, Iran’s leader decries West’s ‘double standard’ towards country’s nuclear programme
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Libyan President Muhammad Yunus Al-Manfi told the 77th session of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that as it moves towards building a State of institutions and establishing principles of democracy, his country has through a decade of “pain and hope”. Libya working towards a democratic transformation, President tells UN
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Referring to a world in a state of turbulence, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda on Wednesday called for multilateral cooperation and efforts to address intersecting crises, including climate change, food price inflation, conflict and migration.  Africa is doing its part but must do more, says Rwandan President Kagame
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Strongly denouncing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, United States President Joe Biden warned United Nations Member States on Wednesday that “if a nation can pursue imperial ambitions without consequences, then we put at risk everything this great institution stands for.”. Biden denounces Russia’s ‘shameless violation’ of UN Charter, urges world to stand with Ukraine
  • (UNGA) September 20, 2022. UN News. The international community cannot stand by as a major power uses violence to expand its borders, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, calling on Member States to uphold the founding purposes and principles of the Organization. Denouncing Russia’s war in Ukraine, German Chancellor calls for upholding rules-based global order
  • (USA) September 21, 2022. Bryant Harris, Defense News.  The Senate Armed Services Committee has reached an agreement aimed at advancing Pentagon nominees who would oversee acquisitions and defense industrial-base policy following controversy over a road in an Alaskan mining district. Senate to move Pentagon acquisition and industrial base nominees amid critical minerals row
  • (USA) September 21, 2022. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings. This is the third in a series of blog posts detailing our research on all 2360 candidates who ran for House or Senate in the 2022 primaries. We started coding each candidate by looking at their official website and then we looked at their Facebook page, their tweets, their press interviews, and their votes (in the case of incumbents) in order to determine their stances on the issues of the day. As would be expected in a primary season that ran six months, from March 1 to September 13 the salience of issues changed somewhat over time—nonetheless we managed to get a good sense of what the two parties’ candidates were talking about and perhaps, as important, what they were not talking about. We were also able to get a good sense of the divisions between the parties and within the parties. Lessons from the 2022 Primaries — what do they tell us about America’s political parties and the midterm elections?
  • (USA) September 21, 2022. Thea SebastianHanna LoveSam WashingtonAnthony BarrInsha RahmanBlake ParadisAndre M. Perry, and Sakira Cook, Brookings. All people deserve safety in their homes, workplaces, parks, and other community spaces—safety not only from violence, but from the economic, social, and environmental conditions that fuel violence in the first place. Within the United States, however, access to physical safety—just like access to clean air, economic mobility, and high-quality schools—is shaped by where someone lives, with many of our most unsafe places reflecting decades of systemic disinvestmentA new community safety blueprint: How the federal government can address violence and harm through a public health approach