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Geostrategic thinking

Geostrategic environment (september 23, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

THINKING COMPLEX

We continue to insist, every day, on the line of strategic dialogue. The complex approach to historical processes problematises the exasperation of competition (particularly for technologies and raw materials) and calls for spaces for cooperation. This is the field of diplomacy within the framework of appropriate political visions.

The topic cannot be limited to what is happening in Ukraine and what, as many fear, might happen. The situation on the planet, which the pandemic first and the war now certainly exacerbate, has been worrying for many years: very often, especially the ruling classes have been under the illusion that it was enough to say democracy or market for freedom, justice and development to be, and to spread almost everywhere. We saw, after the end of the Soviet Union, that this was not the case. We have seen democracies progressively ’emptying out’ and inequalities progressively increasing within states and globally.

Certainly positive ideas such as the ‘common European home’ have clashed in recent years with the return of national identities that also seek recognition through war (always to be condemned). While we cannot accept, as human beings, competition between identities (where the religious theme is in many cases fundamental), it is equally true that denying the mosaic of identities leads them to radicalise over time and become potential weapons.

Yet the world needs cooperation and dialogue. The G-zero world is not a solution. We live in an increasingly complex age: but the ongoing de-generative megacrisis, crisis within crises (first and foremost climate change), does not wait. We hope that politics and diplomacy will win: while politics needs to be rethought with new paradigms, diplomacy (also thanks to the use of new technologies) is decisive in terms of mediation and negotiation.

(by M.E.)

HIGHLIGHTED

  • One day before the referenda held by four regions in Ukraine on whether to join Russia started, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba conveyed clearly China’s position on the Ukraine crisis, and Chinese analysts said China has always adhered to its position, maintained strategic resolve, and will not be affected by external pressure. Zhang Hui and Liu Xin for Global Times (China conveys clear position, maintains strategic resolve over Ukrainian regions’ referenda)
  • Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, making a keynote speech here on Thursday at the headquarters of Asia Society, expounded on the right way for China and the United States to develop relations in the new era. Xinhua (Chinese FM expounds on right way for China, U.S. to develop relations in new era)
  • Moscow wants to believe that relations with Washington have not degenerated to the point of escalating into a full-fledged nuclear conflict, Russian envoy to the US Anatoly Antonov said on Friday in a video address to participants of the Diplomatic Academy’s international scientific conference devoted to the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. TASS (Russia hopes its relations with US are not on brink of nuclear conflict — envoy)
  • In the ongoing geopolitical trend, when every part of the global economy has been turned into a strategic weapon to be deployed as part of a great power game, the reimagining of globalisation that has benefited almost all citizens of planet Earth is being scratched away. A deglobalisation wave is underway that ironically has globalised high food and energy prices and created an atmosphere of slowing global growth in most large economies. While the power elite shoots these weapons from protected and collective confines, the powerless citizens stand vulnerable and deal with change at individual costs, who after outsourcing their collective power are unable to negotiate together. Gautam Chikermane for ORF (When everything is a weapon, everyone is a victim)
  • Exploring key questions around Putin issuing what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries if they interfere in Ukraine. Patricia Lewis for Chatham House (How likely is the use of nuclear weapons by Russia?)
  • Putin has moved the goalposts of the conditions under which Russia would launch a first nuclear strike. His threats are deliberately ambiguous and dangerous. Chatham House (Ambiguous nuclear threats heighten catastrophic risks)
  • The fourth Track-1.5 iteration of the IISS Missile Dialogue Initiative (MDI), supported by the German Federal Foreign Office, took place in the Berlin from 7–8 September to discuss arms control, missile technology, and the opportunities, challenges and implications for regional security. IISS (Fourth meeting of the Missile Dialogue Initiative takes place in Berlin)
  • Law enforcers from over 20 European countries came together earlier this month to clamp down on human traffickers found using online platforms to exploit vulnerable people, including Ukrainian women. Phil Muncaster for Infosecurity (Europol “Hackathon” Identifies Scores of Human Trafficking Victims)
  • Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Thursday met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly. Wang said that as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China is open to dialogue and exchanges with NATO, and is willing to jointly promote the sound and steady development of bilateral relations. Xinhua (China ready to promote sound, steady relationship with NATO: Chinese FM)
  • Russian-American relations are hitting another bottom, and now there is another NPT Review conference. With the departure of the founding fathers of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the need for dialogue between the nuclear superpowers is more acute than during the Cold War, writes Adlan Margoev, Research Fellow, Institute of International Studies, MGIMO. Valdai Discussion Club (The ‘Silver Thread’ is Torn Apart: Will Nuclear Superpowers Reestablish Nuclear Dialogue ?)
  • Discussions during a trilogy of AUKUS-related events in Washington on the one-year anniversary of the deal’s announcement suggest the novel strategic partnership is about much more than submarines, the transfer of nuclear propulsion know-how and Anglosphere chumminess.  and  for The Strategist (Despite progress, major challenges lie ahead for AUKUS)
  • Israel has agreed to sell an advanced air defence system to the United Arab Emirates, two sources familiar with the matter said, in the first such known deal between them since they forged ties in 2020 and  for Reuters (Israel to sell air defence system to United Arab Emirates, sources say)
  • On August 30, eight Baltic Sea littoral countries (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden and Denmark) signed the so-called Marienborg Declaration, agreeing on the necessity of “phasing out Russian energy and decarbonizing the energy sector” within the region (Regeringen.dk, August 30). The document itself does not contain any binding provisions nor introduce any new sectoral policies. The move should be, however, understood as a clear expression of energy solidarity within the Baltic Sea region as a whole and as an additional political commitment to collaborate (both on a regional and pan-European basis) extensively in the further development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and offshore wind projects. Mateusz Kubiak for The Jamestown Foundation (Baltic Sea Countries Utilize LNG and Offshore Wind to Secure Energy Independence)
  • The head of the Italian Air Force will travel to Japan next month to hold talks with his Japanese counterpart about collaboration on sixth-generation fighter technology. General Luca Goretti said the visit would be a chance to explore what ambitions Rome and Tokyo share for next-generation fighters and what technologies can and cannot be shared by the nations. Tom Kington for Defense News (Italy Air Force chief heads to Japan to talk next-gen fighter jets)

  • Over the past decade, artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved rapidly, becoming increasingly sophisticated and capable of solving ever more complex problems. AI is deployed in sectors as diverse as manufacturing, transportation, finance, education and healthcare. In a similar vein, it has the potential to advance the development of nuclear applications, science and technology. Harnessing its capabilities in the nuclear field can positively contribute to addressing some of today’s most pressing challenges, from food security to climate change. Here are some ways in which AI has and will continue to benefit the peaceful applications of nuclear technology. These are discussed in more detail in a new IAEA publication, Artificial Intelligence for Accelerating Nuclear Applications, Science and Technology. Artem Vlasov and Matteo Barbarino for IAEA (Seven Ways AI Will Change Nuclear Science and Technology)

  • In our prior series of papers for Brookings, we explored the rise of national artificial intelligence (AI) strategy documents and sought to make sense of what each country was trying to do and how effectively they were doing it. In our concluding paper, we focused on where the U.S. was lagging behind and proposed options to remedy the lagging. In particular, we recommended three options: 1) apply lessons from the U.S. space race to invigorate talent development, (2) adopt a multi-national consortium approach (similar to NATO) and (3) create a robust partnership with one other country. Gregory S. DawsonKevin C. Desouza, and James S. Denford for Brookings (Understanding artificial intelligence spending by the U.S. federal government)
  • The United States convened Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) partners and key minerals-rich countries to discuss priorities, challenges, and opportunities in responsible mining, processing, and recycling of critical minerals. Secretary Antony Blinken opened the meeting, held in New York City on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly High-Level Week. US Department of State (Minerals Security Partnership Convening Supports Robust Supply Chains for Clean Energy Technologies)
  • A dearth of energy supply worldwide has been hastened by the Russian war in Ukraine. Europe in particular has for some time felt the effects of higher natural gas prices, a trend that began well before the war when European gas spot prices increased from under $10/million British thermal unit (mmBtu) in early 2021 to $24/mmBtu in the second half of last year before persisting at close to $30 for most of the first half of 2022. Tensions have been increasing in Europe due to lower Russian gas pipeline deliveries since early June 2022, pushing prices to even higher levels—as high as $100/mmBtu and sustaining over $50/mmBtu. Abhi Rajendran and Anne-Sophie Corbeau for SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy (Opportunities and Risks in Expanding US Gas and LNG Capacity)
  • Rising insecurity, including the proliferation of terrorist and other non-State armed groups, coupled with political instability, is creating a crisis in the Sahel that poses a “global threat”, the UN chief warned Thursday’s high level meeting on the vast African region, which took place behind closed doors at UN Headquarters in New York. UN News (Sahel security crisis ‘poses a global threat’, Guterres warns)
  • Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Thursday said a two-State solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was “the right thing” for Israel, but he cautioned that a future Palestinian state must not be “another terror base”. UN News (Israeli Prime Minister Lapid backs two-State solution)
  • The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ukraine war and rising costs are ‘severely and disproportionately affecting’ Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the President of the UN General Assembly told their annual ministerial meeting on Thursday. UN News (Least developed countries impacted by ‘range of interlinked crises’ – Assembly President)

TOPICS

WORLDS

  • (Afghanistan) September 22, 2022. Gautam Mukhopadhaya, Vivekananda International Foundation. Two decades of progress in Afghanistan and the process of nation-building came to an abrupt end with the fall of the Afghan government and the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban on August 15, 2021. A year after the situation in Afghanistan is unparalleled. Economically and politically the country is in crisis. While the world’s attention and aid have been shifted on the crisis in Ukraine, Afghanistan is on the brink of collapse. Join Amb Gautam Mukhopadhaya and Aakriti Vinayak in this podcast as they discuss various developments that have transpired inside the country. Afghanistan- One year after Taliban Takeover
  • (Afghanistan) September 22, 2022. US Department of State. Special Envoys and Representatives for Afghanistan of the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States met in Washington D.C. on September 15, 2022, to discuss the situation in Afghanistan. Other officials from Japan, Qatar, Switzerland and UNAMA also participated in the meeting as observers, which included technical sessions with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Communiqué of the U.S.-Europe Group on Afghanistan
  • (Africa) September 23, 2022. Peter Fabricius, Institute for Security Studies. Can the political opposition win elections even when the incumbent government is determined to remain in power at all costs? This is a challenge for Africa where many leaders or political parties seem to have staked claims to power in perpetuity. Can Africa outdo its election riggers?
  • (Australia) September 23, 2022. Jenny Gordon, The Interpreter. In The Interpreter this week, Roland Rajah presented five reasons for establishing a Development Finance Institution (DFI). While he makes a good case, like any major policy change, it is important that the government goes into it with “eyes wide open”. To further the debate, this article puts six reasons why government should be cautious about setting up an Australian DFI. Six reasons to be cautious about Australia establishing a DFI
  • (Australia) September 23, 2022.  and , The Strategist. One of the significant challenges with commodity investments is knowing when to buy and sell. Some view such investments as a form of institutionalised gambling. However, an understanding of the market, and a firm plan for return on investment, usually underpin investor decisions. Two years ago, the Australian government made such a commodity investment when it purchased $94 million worth of oil and stored it in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. End to excise discount highlights Australia’s fuel-storage vulnerabilities
  • (Australia – China) September 23, 2022. Wang Qi, Global Times. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong on Thursday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, in a meeting which Wong described as “constructive.”. Australia urged to take substantive actions in repairing ties with China, after ‘constructive’ meeting
  • (Bangladesh – India) Pankaj Saran, Vivekananda International Foundation. The State visit of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India in September 2022 is an opportunity to reflect upon one of India’s most important relationships in the region. Reflections on the Visit of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to India
  • (Bangladesh – India) September 23, 2022. Nilanjan Ghoshm ORF. The recent visit of Bangladesh Prime Miniter H.E. Sheikh Hasina during 5-8 September 2022 to India found profound and prolific coverage in the media in Bangladesh with profuse questions and concerns on Bangladesh’s gain out of this visit. Water remained an  integral item been on the agenda for any such meeting between the two parties. This is not surprising as Bangladesh and India share 54 transboundary rivers. As India is  an  upstream controller in the major streams,  this has become the root cause of many contentious issues. Quite as expected, in the “India– Bangladesh Joint Statement during the State Visit of Prime Minister of Bangladesh to India”, water found a good amount of mention. Bangladesh-India hydro politics: Sweet deals and contentious issues
  • (Blue Pacific) September 22, 2022. US Department of State. The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom on the occasion of the Partners in the Blue Pacific Foreign Ministers Meeting September 22, 2022. Joint Statement on Partners in the Blue Pacific Foreign Ministers Meeting
  • (China) September 23, 2022. Xinhua.  The development of China’s industrial clusters accelerated recently, with the output value of 25 advanced manufacturing clusters growing steadily in the first half of the year, an official said on Friday. China’s industrial clusters see rapid development
  • (China) September 23, 2022. Global Times. East China’s Jiangxi Province issued a red alert for water supply for the first time after Poyang Lake, China’s largest freshwater lake, saw its water level fall to the lowest since records began, the provincial government said on Friday. Poyang Lake water level falls to lowest since records began
  • (China) September 23, 2022. Xinhua. In the eyes of multiple foreign envoys, China’s sci-tech breakthroughs and green shift regarding infrastructure construction are creating opportunities for closer cooperation. Across China: Foreign envoys expect deeper infrastructure cooperation with China
  • (China – Europe) September 23, 2022. Global Times. As the world has entered a turbulent period, China believes that the EU will stick to its strategic independence and work together with China to ensure the steady and long-term development of China-EU relations, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Wednesday, while meeting with Josep Borrell Fontelles, high representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York. China stresses EU’s strategic independence amid global turbulence
  • (China – Japan) September 23, 2022. Xinhua. The Chinese embassy in Japan has held a reception here to celebrate the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. Reception held in Japan to mark 50th anniversary of normalization of China-Japan diplomatic ties
  • (China – Poland) September 22, 2022. Xinhua. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday met with Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly. Chinese, Polish FMs meet on sidelines of UN General Assembly
  • (Europe) September 21, 2022. Danielle Brady , Elizabeth Kuiper, European Policy Centre. The recently launched European Care Strategy is a step towards improving the circumstances of caregivers and receivers. But considering the lessons learned from COVID-19, the cost-of-living crisis and the inevitable economic recession, it is not ambitious enough, lacking targets for long-term care and new initiatives promoting member state investment in care. Failing to invest in care will render ageing Europe ill-prepared for looming workforce woes
  • (Europe – Russia) September 22, 2022. Vaòdai Discussion Club. The energy systems have tremendous inertia, and it would be a strategic blunder to think that a political directive can provide the EU with alternatives to the Russian energy by a wave of the magic wand. The EU wants to be in control of when it stops importing Russian oil and gas, but this may not be possible, writes Vitaly Yermakov, Expert, Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE University. The Illusion of Control: Introducing Price Caps on Russian Energy Might Backfire
  • (European Arctic) September 12, 2022. Marie-Anne Coninsx, Karen van Loon, EGMONT. The EU’s increased climate ambitions require unprecedented growth in renewable energy and a diversified supply of critical raw materials. Building long-term partnerships and investing in innovation will be vital to pave the way for a clean and secure energy future. Europe’s Energy and Resource Challenge. The Arctic Is Part of the Solution
  • (Germany) September 22, 2022. Ifo Institute. A majority of Germans (58 percent) are in favor of taking immediate educational measures to integrate Ukrainian refugees. There is broad support for different measures for adults, such as the right and duty to attend government-funded German courses (74 percent) and issuing work permits to refugee teachers (66 percent). These are the findings of a representative survey of the German adult population conducted by the ifo Center for the Economics of Education between May and June 2022. Germans Favor Integration of Ukrainian Refugees through Education
  • (Germany) September 23, 2022. Ifo Institute. Three out of four Germans have a positive take on the social market economy. This is according to a representative survey of 2,000 citizens conducted by the ifo Institute. The social market economy received an average score of 6.8 out of a possible 10 points. “People have a fairly positive opinion of the social market economy. However, the results also reveal that those surveyed believe there’s still room for improvement,” said Sarah Necker, Director of the Ludwig Erhard ifo Center for Social Market Economy and Institutional Economics, at today’s ceremony marking the opening of the new research center in Fürth. Majority of Germans Positive about Social Market Economy
  • (Hungary – Russia) September 23, 2022. TASS. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto commended his country’s cooperation with Russia’s energy giant Gazprom following a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the 77th UN General Assembly in New York. Hungarian top diplomat commends gas cooperation with Russia’s Gazprom
  • (India) September 23, 2022. ORF. As the COVID-19 crisis wanes, India and Indians are embracing the slivers of normalcy with vigour and enthusiasm. The new normal of living with the virus and working through its waves and surges has become a way of life. Green shoots of post-pandemic recovery, growth, and optimism have begun to take root. Alongside, a silent revolution is underway as well, marked by several dots that are not readily connected—a digital India has emerged even as we battled the global affliction. Aspirations, Access & Agency: Women Transforming Lives With Technology
  • (Japan) September 22, 2022. Aurelia George Mulgan, East Asia Forum. In Japan, the Unification Church (UC) is a religious corporation known formally as the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification and for its unique interpretation of Christian theology and practices widely criticised for being similar to those of a cult. Japan mixes religion and politics
  • (Kyrgyzstan – Tajikistan) September 23, 2022. Pravesh Kumar Gupta, Vivekananda International Foundation. On September 14, border guards from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exchanged fire at a disputed border section. The violent confrontation escalated and lasted for two days, with drones, tanks, aircraft, and exchange of rocket fire. In the bloodiest violence in years, at least 94 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured. Around 137,000 people have been evacuated from the disputed section of the border in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken and Osh regions due to the violence. There were no reports of evacuation from the Tajik Side. Both countries have accused each other of aggression. Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Clash: An Analysis
  • (Niger) September 15, 2022. Nina Wilén, EGMONT. How does Security Force Assistance (SFA) impact Niger’s security sector and beyond? I draw on extensive fieldwork in Niger and identify and analyse two developments taking place in Niger’s security sector: the development of an expanded Special Forces Command and the elaboration of multiple mobile hybrid units.  The impact of security force assistance in Niger: meddling with borders
  • (Nordics) September 12, 2022. Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, crisis preparedness and security of supply have taken on a new urgency. The recent events have demonstrated the fragility of many of the international flows of critical goods, products and services on which the Nordics also depend. As one of the most interconnected regions in the world, it is only through cooperation that the Nordics can avoid supply disturbances and crises that cascade throughout the region. Nordic cooperation on crisis preparedness
  • (Pakistan) September 23, 2022. Manita Raut, Kuntala Lahiri-Dutt, East Asia Forum. The catchphrase ‘water is life’ took on a deeper meaning in 2022 as floods submerged two-thirds of Pakistan, affecting over 33 million people, displacing tens of millions and killing 1400 people. Pakistan floods do nothing to dampen climate change
  • (RCEP) Seètember 23, 2022. Xinhua.  A think tank network was established on Friday in south China’s Hainan Province to advance the process of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Think tank network established to advance RCEP process
  • (Russia) September 15, 2022. Jussi Lassila, Finnish Institute of International Affairs. A floundering war in Ukraine provided easy justification for the extreme clampdown on the opposition prior to Russia’s regional elections. At the same time, the Kremlin is trying to stifle the last remaining legal means of expressing discontent. Russia’s regional elections: The elephant in the room
  • (Russia) September 22, 2022. Paul Globe, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s demographic problems, including the extremely high male mortality among working-age groups (Socio.bas-net.by, accessed September 21; Nakanune.ru, August 1) and the declining size of the Russian nation, especially in rural areas where most soldiers come from and opposition to the war is growing (Siberia.Realities, August 24), impose serious constraints on Moscow’s ability to effectively carry out the “partial mobilization” announced by President Vladimir Putin on September 21. The relative increase in the share of men in their 20s and 30s from non-Russian areas who also oppose the war in Ukraine makes this task evermore daunting (Caucasus Post, June 18). Russia’s Demographic Problems Make Putin’s Mobilization Plans Explosive
  • (Russia) September 22, 2022.  Pavel Luzin, The Jamestown Foundation. On September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on partial mobilization (Kremlin.ru, September 21) and issued a public statement in which he claimed that the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine are de facto confronting the West (Kremlin.ru, September 21).  The Impossible Mobilization
  • (Russia) September 22, 2022. US Department of State. The United States and 37 other countries invoked the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Moscow Mechanism on July 28 to examine the Russia’s adherence to its OSCE Human Dimension commitments on human rights and fundamental freedoms. The Moscow Mechanism Report on Russia’s Failure to Fulfill its Human Dimension Commitments
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 23, 2022. Adding to a burgeoning list of setbacks faced by the Russian forces in Ukraine is the reported destruction of a Russian barge ferrying military hardware and troops across the Dnipro river near the Ukrainian city of Nova Kakhovka—on a day when a Ukrainian official claimed Russian forces had been trapped by the river due to the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, pushing them further south. Ukraine’s counteroffensive and Moscow’s response
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 23, 2022. Jack Watling, RUSI. Vladimir Putin made a mistake by delaying the decision to mobilise, but it is vital that the West avoids similarly squandering advantage through procrastination and complacency. Time is the Hidden Flank in Assessing Russia’s Mobilisation
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 23, 2022. Crisis Group. Following a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia is escalating its war in Ukraine. Yet developments on the ground show that NATO members’ approach to date – supporting Kyiv while avoiding a direct clash with Moscow – is fundamentally sound. The West should stay the course. Staying the Course in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 22, 2022. Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, and Mason Clark, ISW. The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the Kremlin’s internal quota of mobilized personnel but is unlikely to generate effective soldiers and is prompting significant domestic backlash for little gain. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 22
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 22, 2022. Seth G. Jones, Jared Thompson, Riley McCabe, CSIS. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s announcement on September 21, 2022, to call up roughly 300,000 military reservists is a sign of desperation. As newly released CSIS battlefield maps indicate, Ukrainian forces have—thus far—conducted an effective counterattack that has reconquered roughly 3,700 square miles, slightly smaller than the state of Connecticut.  Mapping Ukraine’s Military Advances
  • (Sahel) September 22, 2022. Nina Wilén, EGMONT. Encompassing a range of external actors, numerous Security Force Assistance initiatives in the Sahel seek to improve how local security forces respond to “borderless threats” and protect geopolitical borders. Drawing on research into such initiatives, Nina Wilén argues that they both reflect and contribute to global (in)security trends, while developing hybrid security units that blur the distinctions between internal and external security forces. Security Force Assistance in the Sahel is meddling with borders
  • (Sahel) September 22, 2022. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Climate change could turn one of Africa’s driest regions into a very wet one by boosting the Monsoon circulation. New computer simulations show a significant future increase in seasonal rainfall in the Sahel under the current trend of global warming. A major increase in average rainfall might kick-in by 2040 already, which means that it is inevitable regardless of how future greenhouse gas emissions develop. Although crossing this new tipping point is potentially beneficial, it comes with substantial unknowns. The change could in fact be so big, it would be a major adaptation challenge for an already troubled region. Shifting Climate Zones: Sahel might get 50 % more rain by 2040
  • (South Africa) September 12, 2022. Institute for Security Studies. Public officials and politicians routinely blame immigrants for a range of social and economic problems in South Africa. This reinforces negative, xenophobic sentiments among many people. The research and analysis presented in this report tests the validity of these widely held beliefs. It shows that they are largely false and can only have detrimental consequences for South Africa’s economy and people. Scapegoating in South Africa: busting the myths about immigrants
  • (Uganda) September 14, 2022. Economic Policy Research Centre. This paper shows that institutional and policy environment for cane production in Uganda has provided limited empowerment and protection to outgrowers – attributed to delays in the implementation of the 2010 NSP and Sugar Act, 2020 by MTIC and MAAIF. Therefore, the paper recommends re-opening of discussions on the National Sugar Board as recommended by the Sugar Act 2020, to regulate the sector and improve coordination between millers and outgrowers, as envisioned by the 2010 National Sugar Policy. Revisiting Policy and Institutional Arrangements Affecting Sugarcane Outgrowers and Millers in Uganda
  • (Uganda) September 18, 2022. Dablin Mpuuga, Economic Policy Research Centre. Uganda continues to grapple with worsening food security despite several attempts to remedy the same. Women land rights are key for Uganda’s food security
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. Collectively, “we must address…the fundamental imbalances in the world we share,” Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said on Thursday, calling for global “climate solidarity” to support vulnerable countries that have suffered “loss and damage” from climate change. Demark rallies wealthy nations to back ‘climate solidarity’, boost financing for hard-hit poor countries
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. Mia Amor Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, urged world leaders to “use the power of the pen” and impose natural disaster and pandemic clauses in developing countries’ debt, as well as remove the current barriers to accessing financial assistance from multilateral development banks. Barbados Prime Minister Mottley calls for overhaul of unfair, outdated global finance system
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. Warring parties in South Sudan are committed to implementing a peace deal that has improved security in the country, Vice-President Hussein Abdelbagi Akol Agany told the UN General Assembly on Thursday.  South Sudan: Vice-President highlights commitments and challenges to peace
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. Abdel-Fattah Al Burhan Abdelrahman Al-Burhan, the President of the Transitional Government of Sudan, called for more multilateral action to find sustainable solutions to global challenges and to reduce terrible repercussions for people worldwide, particularly in countries affected by conflict and in the least developed countries. Sudan committed to achieve national reconciliation, General Assembly hears
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. Despite efforts to move past decades of drought and conflict, Somalia is facing some of the most complex crises in the world, its President said today at the UN General Assembly, urging international partners to help the nation avert a looming famine and defeat the scourge of terrorism. Somalia committed to tackling twin threats of looming famine and terrorism, President tells UN Assembly
  • (UNGA) September 22, 2022. UN News. President Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi said on Thursday that with the formation in early April of the Presidential Leadership Council as the legitimate representative of the Yemeni people, his country had entered a new era in based on partnership and national consensus. Leadership Council marks ‘new era’ for Yemen, but country remains wary of terrorist threat
  • (UNGA) September 21, 2022. UN News. Addressing world leaders gathered for the first fully in-person high-level debate of the UN General Assembly in three years, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the true essence of the unjust and unsustainable prevailing international order. Pandemic worsened inequalities, exposed true essence of unjust global order, Cuba tells UN
  • (USA) September 22, 2022. Joseph W. KaneAdie TomerCaroline George, and Jamal Russell Black, Brookings. The growing threats from climate change leave the global population no choice: We must decarbonize human activity as soon as possible. That includes changing how we build, travel, generate power, and more to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Achieving such transformative change will require a mix of policy reforms, new technologies, and significant capital investments. Under ideal circumstances, cities, national governments, global organizations, and private business owners would seamlessly work together to orchestrate actions that deliver results at the scale and speed the planet needs. Not according to plan: Exploring gaps in city climate planning and the need for regional action
  • (USA – Japan – Republic of Korea) September 22, 2022. US Department of State. U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, and Republic of Korea (ROK) Minister of Foreign Affairs Park Jin met today on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City to reaffirm their commitment to strong trilateral cooperation as we seek to address urgent 21st century challenges. The United States’ ironclad alliance commitments to the ROK and Japan and our close, enduring friendships are critical to the security and prosperity of our citizens, the region, and the world. Joint Statement on the U.S.-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Foreign Ministerial Meeting
  • (USA – Rohingya) September 22, 2022. US Department of State. The United States today announced more than $170 million in additional humanitarian assistance for Rohingya inside and outside Burma, as well as for host communities in Bangladesh. With this new funding, our total assistance in response to the Rohingya Refugee Crisis has reached nearly $1.9 billion since August 2017, when over 740,000 Rohingya were forced to flee to safety in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. United States Announces More Than $170 Million in Humanitarian Assistance for the Rakhine State/Rohingya Refugee Crisis
  • (USA – Ukraine) September 22, 2022.