Giudizio storico Historical judgement

Geostrategic environment (september 8, 2022)


  • (Afghanistan) September 7, 2022. Peter Mills, ISW. The Taliban government is struggling to defeat the National Resistance Front (NRF), a growing anti-Taliban insurgency in northeastern Afghanistan. Taliban leaders appointed a new slate of military commanders to lead anti-NRF operations, indicating dissatisfaction with the previous commanders’ performance. Political and ethnic divisions are also likely undermining Taliban forces. Continued Taliban failures against the NRF could lead to the strengthening of the Haqqani Network within the Taliban’s military leadership. Taliban Struggles to Contain Afghan National Resistance Front
  • (AUKUS) September 7, 2022. Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The United States, the United Kingdom and Australia have spent the last year discussing in detail the capabilities that each partner of the so-called AUKUS agreement will bring to the table for a future Australian nuclear-powered attack submarine, according to the undersecretary of the U.S. Navy. What have the AUKUS partners spent the last year doing?
  • (Belarus) September 7, 2022. Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. Musings of two Belarusian historians, Yury Shevtsov and Alexander Bely, symbolize the current condition of Belarusians’ cultural divide. Both consider the 1596 emergence of the Uniate Church, preserving the Eastern rite and discipline but submitting to papal authority, an important hallmark in Belarusian history. Belarusians at Home and Abroad Are Growing Apart
  • (China – Iran deal) September 7, 2022. Craig Singleton, FDD. Supporters of a new Iran deal claim it will put Tehran’s atomic program “in a box” so that Washington and its allies can finally focus on countering Beijing’s increasing belligerence in the Indo-Pacific. But a shorter, weaker deal that significantly strengthens Iran’s hand will have the opposite effect: It will lead to greater instability in both the Middle East and Indo-Pacific while enabling China to deepen its influence throughout the Gulf. How Beijing Benefits From a New Iran Deal
  • (Egypt) September 8, 2022. Kali Robinson, CFR. As host of the UN climate talks, Egypt is trying to attract financial support for the continent’s climate actions. But its record of repression and reliance on fossil fuels threaten to undercut that effort. Egypt Is Hosting COP27. Can It Become Africa’s Climate Champion?
  • (Ethiopia) September 8, 2022. Ann Fitz-Gerald, Hugh Segal OC OOnt CD, RUSI. As terrorist groups including Al-Qa’ida continue to advance across Africa, the international community needs to support the Ethiopian government in restoring stability to the country. Stopping Al-Qa’ida in Africa Requires United Support for Ethiopia
  • (Iran) September 7, 2022. Anonymous, Atlantic Council. In June 2021, the Guardian Council, a body tasked with vetting and qualifying candidates for elected office, did its best to guarantee that hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was elected president by disqualifying all those who presented any semblance of competition. His presidential win was considered a potential step toward becoming Iran’s real leader whenever incumbent Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, passes away. Rumors of Mojtaba Khamenei being crowned with the Supreme Leader’s turban have been circulating for years. Now it may happen. – Atlantic Council
  • (Iran – al Qaeda) September 7, 2022. Jonathan Schanzer, FDD. A photo, first posted on an anonymous Twitter account, circulated last week among terrorism watchers here in Washington. It received scant attention in the mainstream media. The now authenticated photo, dated 2015, shows three of Al Qaeda’s top leaders smiling casually. Their names: Saif al Adel, Abu Muhammad al Masri, and Abu al Khayr al Masri. Their location: Tehran. Are al Qaeda and Iran really at odds?
  • (Israel) September 7, 2022. FDD. Israel’s Chief of the General Staff Aviv Kohavi stated on Monday that since late March, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have apprehended approximately 1,500 wanted Palestinians in the West Bank and thwarted “hundreds of attacks.” Kohavi’s statement highlights the significant threat posed by Palestinian terrorist organizations in the territory, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and others. Israel Thwarts Terror Plots in West Bank, Yet Threats Continue
  • (Mexico) September 7, 2022. CFR. Violence continues to rage more than a decade after the Mexican government launched a war against drug cartels. Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, Crime, and the Cartels
  • (Mexico) September 7, 2022. Ryan C. Berg, CSIS. The Mexican government has taken several steps to further develop its information and communications technology (ICT) sector and increase the competitiveness of the industry over the past decade. Spectrum Fees: One of Mexico’s Greatest Obstacles to a More Competitive Telecommunications Sector
  • (Organization of Turkic States) September 7, 2022. Ayaz Museyibov, The Jamestown Foundation. On November 12, 2021, at the eighth (and final) summit of the Turkic Council in Istanbul, Turkey, the group’s name was changed to the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and Turkmenistan was admitted as an observer state (, accessed July 20). Simultaneously, the document “View of the Turkish World – 2040” was ratified (, November 12, 2021). Organization of Turkic State’s Increasing Role in Stabilizing Eurasia
  • (Pakistan) September 7, 2022.  Hina Saleem, Brookings. In Pakistan, in addition to rural location, income, religion, caste, and land ownership, factors like gender, spoken language, and a community’s prior exposure to schooling, among others, all play a role in limiting a child’s access to schooling and learning.  How do we ensure that schools in Pakistan engage the most excluded children in quality education?
  • (Russia) Denis Volkov, Andrei Kolesnikov, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect. My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine
  • (Russia) September 7, 2022. Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 15, speaking during a session of the Russian State Duma, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov elaborated on the need to take a turn “from absolutist market-type industrial policy toward a policy aimed at securing [Russia`s] industrial sovereignty.” In his speech, Manturov said that industries such as electronics, machine tool and chemistry “should be paid special attention” by Moscow (, July 15). Gosplan 2.0: Is Russia Taking Another Step Toward a Planned Economy?
  • (Russia – North Korea) September 7, 2022. Hyung-jin Kim and Kim Tong-hyung, AP, Defense News. North Korea is apparently moving to sell millions of rockets and artillery shells — many of them likely from its old stock — to its Cold War ally Russia. What weapons could North Korea give to Russia?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 7, 2022. IAEA. Renewed shelling has damaged a back-up power line between Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and a nearby thermal power station, further underlining significant nuclear safety risks at the facility, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) learnt at the site. Update 99 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 7, 2022. Estelle Marais, Michael Amdi Madsen, IAEA. The establishment of a Nuclear Safety and Security Protection Zone at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Ukraine is urgently needed to ensure that the physical integrity of the plant is not compromised, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told the UN Security Council yesterday. Zaporizhzya NPP has been controlled by Russian forces since March but is operated by its Ukrainian staff. UN Security Council: IAEA Grossi Calls for Establishment of Nuclear Safety and Security Protection Zone at Zaporizhzhya NPP
  • (Russia – Ukraine) September 7, 2022. Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, George Barros, Layne Philipson, and Mason Clark, ISW. Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 7
  • (South Korea) September 7, 2022. Jennifer Bouey, RAND Corporation. As nations around the world emerge from the long and devastating COVID-19 pandemic and reflect on the losses and the way forward, nations around the world, including the United States, could look to South Korea’s near-perfect response as a model for dealing with future public health crises. Can South Korea Help the World Beat the Next Pandemic?
  • (Ukraine) September 7, 2022. Patrick Tucker. Defense One. Urgent needs and long-term support for Ukraine will be on the agenda at a Thursday meeting of the NATO secretary general, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and officials from various countries supporting Kyiv, two senior defense officials said. according to two senior defense officials here. Ukraine’s Supporters Aim to Create Long-Term Aid Mechanisms
  • (USA) September 8, 2022. Jamil Modaffari, Akilah Alleyne, Center for American Progress. School buildings across America are crumbling. According to a 2020 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), 54 percent of U.S. school districts need to update or completely replace multiple building systems in their schools. This crisis has only deepened during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as in the face of record-breaking extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. Federal Investments in K-12 Infrastructure Would Benefit Students Across the Country
  • (USA) September 8, 2022. Jill Rosenthal, Center for American Progress. Costly, heat-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations are rising as the climate warms, reflecting only a small portion of extreme heat-related consequences. The Health Care Consequences of Extreme Heat Are Just the Tip of the Iceberg
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. In 2002, nine in 10 Americans saw international terrorism as a critical threat. About six in 10 do today, Council polling shows. 21 Years after 9/11, Americans Are Less Concerned about Terrorism
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Richard Fry, Pew Research Center. It’s well established that college graduates in the United States tend to partner with other college graduates. In 2019, 81% of household heads with a bachelor’s degree or more education had a spouse or partner who was also a college graduate. Continuing-generation college grads tend to partner with each other
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Matthew Tokson, Lawfare. Following the FBI search of former President Trump’s Florida estate, most attention has focused on Trump’s call for a special master to review the seized documents. Trump filed a complaint in federal court asking for the appointment of an external party to review each of the documents to filter out those that implicate executive or attorney-client privilege. Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, granted this request on Monday morning and enjoined the Justice Department from further reviewing any seized documents. At the least, Trump has succeeded in delaying the investigation and obtaining a thorough privilege review. Trump’s Fourth Amendment Claims and the Strategy Behind the Challenge to the Mar-a-Lago Search
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Geoffrey S. CornPeter Margulies, Lawfare. The new U.S. Department of Defense Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response Action Plan (CHMR-AP) is an audacious and comprehensive effort to enhance compliance with the law of armed conflict (LOAC) and address concerns that the department has not done enough to safeguard civilians. As outlined by planning team members Dan Stigall and Anna Williams, and analyzed by Marc Garlasco, the plan will develop new institutions within the Defense Department, including a Center of Excellence “to expedite and institutionalize the advancement of knowledge, practices, and tools for preventing, mitigating, and responding to civilian harm.”. The New Defense Department Plan to Curb Civilian Harm: A Bold Blueprint for Change
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense. The Pentagon’s new directive on space policy moves away from the aggressive language of Trump-era space policy documents — in particular avoiding the term “space superiority,” which has been used by Russia and China to claim US intent to weaponize space. New DoD Space Policy avoids politically loaded language, echoes Obama-era
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Defense One. The U.S. Defense Department needs to sign long-term deals with manufacturers of the missiles and bombs heavily needed by U.S. forces and allies, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer said Wednesday. US Should Place Multiyear Munitions Orders to Protect Supply, Pentagon Arms Chief Says
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Brookings. Loren Adler, Matthew Fiedler, Richard G. Frank, and Marta E. Wosinska submitted a comment letter responding to a recent request for information (RFI) related to the Medicare Advantage (MA) program issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Comments on the Request for Information on Medicare
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Aaron Klein, Brookings. For the last twenty years, nearly every flagship university in the U.S. has been decreasing its share of in-state students and enrolling more students from out of state, a phenomenon I call the “Great Student Swap.”. The Great Student Swap
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Elaine Kamarck, Brookings. It is difficult to understand American politics without understanding party primaries. Primaries determine the choices (or lack of choices) voters will have in November, but beyond that, they define the major differences between parties and the all-important major differences within parties. Lessons from the 2022 Primaries–what do they tell us about America’s political parties and the midterm elections?
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Zhengyang JiangHanno LustigStijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan, Brookings. The U.S. government’s capacity to continue running large budget deficits could be threatened if interest rates remain even modestly higher than currently expected, suggests a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 8. Measuring US fiscal capacity using discounted cash flow analysis
  • (USA) September 7, 2022. Laurence BallDaniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra, Brookings. The Federal Reserve likely will need to push unemployment far higher than its 4.1 percent projection if it is to succeed in bringing inflation down to its 2 percent target by the end of 2024, suggests a paper to be discussed at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) conference on September 8. Understanding US inflation during the COVID era
  • (USA – Russia) September 7, 2022.  David R. Shedd, Ivana Stradner, FDD. The fight for Ukraine will not just be won on the battlefield. For all the high-tech weaponry the West has delivered, psychological war against Russia remains a key opportunity for the United States. Waging Psychological War Against Russia
  • (USA – Ukraine) September 8, 2022. US Department of State. It has been seven months since President Putin’s February invasion of Ukraine, and the war’s terrible toll continues to mount. $2.8 Billion in Additional U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine and Its Neighbors
  • (USA – Ukraine) September 7, 2022.