Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine – 10 febbraio 2023 AM


  • L’Armenia cerca di diversificare la sua politica estera allontanandosi dalla Russia (The Jamestown Foundation, Emil Avdaliani). On January 23, the European Union announced it would be sending a civilian mission to Armenia for a two-year term to document tensions on the border with Azerbaijan (, January 23; see EDM, February 8). The EU’s recent decision follows earlier attempts by Brussels to establish itself in Armenia and represents a significant upgrade from previous initiatives. Moscow responded angrily, tacitly accusing Yerevan of not pursuing other options, most notably a mission from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) (, January 26). Armenia Tries to Diversify Its Foreign Policy Away From Russia


  • La Bielorussia afferma che la chiusura del valico di frontiera da parte della Polonia è una decisione “catastrofica” (Reuters). Belarus on Friday slammed a decision by Poland to close a border checkpoint between the two countries as “catastrophic”, saying it could lead to a “collapse” on both sides of the border.  Belarus says Poland closing border crossing point is ‘catastrophic’ decision


  • La crisi nel corridoio di Lachin rischia di scatenare una guerra più ampia nel Caucaso meridionale (The Jamestown Foundation, Paul Globe). As the standoff in the Lachin Corridor—the primary land route into and out of the Armenian-controlled areas of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region—enters its third month, the humanitarian situation there is rapidly deteriorating, prompting ever-more ethnic Armenians in the region to consider leaving while simultaneously attracting more and potentially dangerous international attention to the problem (see EDM, January 19; Eurasianet, February 3;, February 9). Crisis in Lachin Corridor Risks Triggering Broader War in South Caucasus


  • Il punto di vista delle capitali europee nel viaggio di Zelenskyy attraverso il continente (Atlantic Council). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy zipped from London to Paris to Brussels this week in his second trip abroad since Russia’s full-scale invasion of his country nearly a year ago. His message to leaders and lawmakers was that their military aid so far to his country has been substantial, but is not enough to repel Russia’s brutal invasion. More is needed, Zelenskyy urged. The view from European capitals on Zelenskyy’s trip across the continent


  • La Finlandia discuterà la ratifica della NATO che potrebbe lasciare indietro la Svezia (Reuters).  Finnish parliamentary groups are expected to discuss on Friday when to ratify NATO’s founding treaties, in a move that could lead the country to proceed with membership ahead of neighbouring Sweden, amid growing support among the Finnish public to go it alone. Finland to discuss NATO ratification that may leave Sweden behind


  • La Germania è in trattative avanzate con l’Oman per la fornitura di gas naturale (Reuters). Germany and Oman are in advanced talks to sign a long-term deal for liquefied natural gas (LNG) lasting at least 10 years as Berlin continues its search for alternatives to Russian fuel supplies, three sources familiar with the matter said. Exclusive: Germany in advanced talks with Oman for natural gas supplies


  • La Germania fornirà alla Slovacchia sistemi di difesa aerea Mantis (The Defense Post). Germany will give Bratislava two sets of the MANTIS air defense system to protect Slovakia’s eastern border with Ukraine, the Slovak defense ministry said Thursday. Germany to Give Slovakia Mantis Air Defense Systems


  • L’Ucraina riceverà i jet da combattimento occidentali e quali sono le sfide? (Reuters).  Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday several Western countries were ready to provide Kyiv with aircraft to defeat Russia’s invasion. Factbox: Will Ukraine get Western fighter jets and what are the challenges?
  • I carri armati occidentali e l’impatto sulla guerra (The Strategist, ). The extensive debate about the provision of a relatively small number of Western tanks to Ukraine has created the impression in some quarters that the additional armour will be a game-changer. That’s unlikely to be the case. Western tanks will bring their own complexities to Ukraine’s fight against Russia
  • Evoluzione della guerra, 9 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan). Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on February 9 that the Wagner Group has entirely stopped recruiting prisoners. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2023
  • L’addestramento del Regno Unito per i piloti da combattimento ucraini è pensato per il “dopoguerra”, ma le cose potrebbero cambiare (Breaking Defense, Lee Ferran). England’s new offer to train Ukrainian fighter pilots may have whetted the appetite in Kyiv for a potential transfer of Western fighter jets, but a senior UK official said it was really about Ukraine’s “post-war” military — while also acknowledging having pilots familiar with Western fighters would be beneficial if the NATO nations begin supplying aircraft. UK training for Ukrainian fighter pilots meant for ‘post-war,’ but that could change: Minister
  • Smilitarizzando Starlink, SpaceX taglia il sostegno all’esercito ucraino (Defense One, Patrick Tucker). SpaceX will no longer support certain Ukrainian military operations through its Starlink satellite-communications service, the company’s president said on Wednesday, explaining that the tech was “never meant to be weaponized.” But Gwynne Shotwell’s explanation is at odds with Starlink’s role in recent U.S. Army modernization experiments that seek to fire on targets more quickly. Decrying Starlink’s ‘Weaponization,’ SpaceX Cuts Support for Ukrainian Military


  • Sollevare il velo sui lavoratori migranti invisibili in India (East Asia Forum, Shareen Joshi). Ninety per cent of Indian workers earn their livelihoods in the informal sector, lacking job security, pensions, paid leave and benefits. Precise estimates are unknown, but as many as 40–100 million of these workers are estimated to migrated for employment to India’s cities each year. In March 2020, millions left the cities and returned to the Indian countryside, reeling from lost employment, accommodation and poverty during India’s COVID-19 lockdowns. Lifting the veil on India’s invisible migrant workers | East Asia Forum


  • Evoluzione della crisi, 9 febbraio 2023 (ISW, Nicholas Carl, Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan). Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated rhetorically against the regime on February 9, expressing support for reformist calls for “fundamental” change in Iran. Iran Update, February 9, 2023


  • Ortega libera i prigionieri politici in Nicaragua e li espelle negli Stati Uniti (Reuters). More than 200 Nicaraguan political prisoners were freed and flown to the United States on Thursday, nearly all of them prominent government critics jailed in President Daniel Ortega’s crackdown on dissent over recent years. Defiant Ortega frees political prisoners in Nicaragua, expels them to U.S.


  • Il Pakistan accetta le condizioni del FMI per il rilascio di un finanziamento di 1,1 miliardi di dollari (Reuters). Pakistan has agreed with the International Monetary Fund on the conditions to release about $1.1 billion in critical funding, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said on Friday, adding that the payout was delayed due to “routine procedures”. Pakistan says agrees to IMF conditions on release of $1.1 bln funding


  • La Russia agisce per destabilizzare la Moldavia (The Defense Post). Moldova’s intelligence service said Thursday that Russia was acting to destabilize the ex-Soviet country, following comments by Ukraine’s president that Kyiv had intercepted a plan by Moscow. Russia Acting to Destabilize Moldova: Chisinau





  • Prospettive 2023 per le relazioni ucraino-ungheresi (The Jamestown Foundation, Péter Fazekas). The year 2023 began with a series of alarming signs for the already troubled relationship between Hungary and Ukraine. Speaking to conservative-minded international journalists on January 26, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reportedly compared Ukraine to Afghanistan, characterizing the war-torn country as a “no man’s land” (, January 27). Orbán further declared that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is inching ever closer to a direct confrontation with Russia, pointing to recent decisions among key NATO allies such as the decision to finally supply Kyiv with badly needed main battle tanks. Bracing for a New Low? 2023 Outlook for Ukrainian-Hungarian Relations


  • La politica sull’intelligenza artificiale del Dipartimento della Difesa dà il “via libera” alle armi robotiche (Breaking Defense,  Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.). To defense officials working on robotic weapons, at first glance the recent rewrite of the Pentagon policy on “Autonomy in Weapons Systems” might look intimidating, like a Terminator. What was 15 pages in its original form expands to 24, adding paragraphs of ethical principles that new weapons programs must abide by, a full-page flowchart of go/no-go decisions that officials must work through, and a new bureaucratic entity to oversee it all, the Autonomous Weapon Systems Working Group. DoD’s clarified AI policy flashes ‘green light’ for robotic weapons: Experts


  • Sotto la pressione degli Stati Uniti, Lula ritarda l’attracco del Brasile alle navi da guerra iraniane (Reuters). Brazil bowed to U.S. pressure and declined an Iranian request for two of its warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro at a time when Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was planning his trip to Washington to meet U.S. leader Joe Biden, sources said. Exclusive: Under U.S. pressure, Lula delays Brazil docking of Iran warships -sources
  • Biden e Lula devono discutere di rafforzare le loro democrazie, ma questo è solo l’inizio (Atlantic Council, Valentina Sader). Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s trip to Washington this week marks a historic occasion in the US-Brazil relationship. More than ever before, the Western Hemisphere’s two largest democracies find themselves on similar ground: On January 8, supporters of Brazil’s former president invaded the buildings of Brazil’s three branches of government in a scene that drew a striking resemblance to the January 6 insurrection in the United States two years prior. Biden and Lula must discuss fortifying their democracies—but that’s just the start


  • La politica indo-pacifica degli Stati Uniti privilegia la sicurezza rispetto all’economia (East Asia Forum, Claude Barfield). Under President Joe Biden, the United States has stepped up its campaign to build out and expand its geostrategic position in the Indo-Pacific. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s recent White House visit was a significant payoff for this strategy. US Indo-Pacific policy prioritises security over economics


  • Intel valuta l’opportunità di incrementare gli investimenti nell’impianto di confezionamento di chip in Vietnam (Reuters).  Intel Corp is considering a significant increase in its existing $1.5-billion investment in Vietnam to expand its chip testing and packaging plant in the Southeast Asian nation, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Exclusive: Intel weighs boost to investment in Vietnam chip packaging plant