Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine – 14 febbraio 2023


  • La Repubblica Ceca mette un altro punto fermo nelle relazioni della Cina con l’Europa (RUSI, Bartosz Kowalski). Following his victory, the new Czech president has signalled a shift in the country’s foreign policy towards China. But how will Beijing respond? The Czech Republic Puts Another Dent in China’s Relations with Europe
  • La guerra in Ucraina e il futuro della sicurezza collettiva globale (AIIA, Eyal Mayroz). Shortly after its start, the war in Ukraine was cast as a “make or break” moment for the future of global collective security. One year later, it is time to consider the international scorecard and the remaining challenges on the way to a more peaceful world. The War in Ukraine and the Future of Global Collective Security
  • Sostenere una coalizione europea di carri armati per l’Ucraina (European Council on Foreign Relations, Gustav Gressel, Rafael Loss, Jana Puglierin). Military help for Ukraine is moving towards serious questions of logistics – but more countries still need to step forward. Here is how the next-stage coalition could look. Repair, replace, reimburse: Sustaining a European tank coalition for Ukraine
  • La guerra cambia tutto: la Russia dopo l’Ucraina (NATO Defense College, Marc Ozawa). War changes everything: Russia after Ukraine
  • I fattori determinanti del conflitto tra Russia e Ucraina nel 2023 (CSIS, Emily Harding Benjamin Jensen Heather Williams and Eliot A. Cohen). As Russia and Ukraine head into year two of a war that has defied expectations, a collection of CSIS experts examined driving factors for the future of the conflict. These experts borrow the approach from intelligence analysts, who seek to evaluate the possible trajectories of a conflict rather than make straight-line predictions, bounding reality for policymakers. Emily Harding discusses the life-or-death question of continued outside aid for Ukraine and the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Ben Jensen discusses cohesion in the Russian military and the potential for catastrophic collapse. Heather Williams evaluates the looming nuclear question. Finally, Eliot Cohen examines how a conflict might end. Experts React: Factors Shaping the Russia-Ukraine Conflict in 2023
  • Perché la Corea del Nord nega il suo coinvolgimento nella guerra della Russia in Ucraina (The Interpreter, Khang X. Vu). In a case of history repeating itself, the Korean War is set to be revived. Not on the Korean Peninsula but in Eastern Europe. Both North Korea and South Korea are currently contemplating sending military supplies to Russia and Ukraine respectively to assist in the ongoing war. Why North Korea is denying its involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine
  • La Norvegia donerà all’Ucraina otto carri armati Leopard 2 (The Defense Post). Norway’s government said Tuesday it would donate eight of its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, fulfilling a previous commitment and joining a slew of Western countries to pledge heavier weapons to Ukraine. Norway to Donate Eight Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine
  • L’Austria rifiuta di addestrare i soldati ucraini sui carri armati Leopard (The Defense Post, Joe Saballa). The Austrian Ministry of Defence has announced that it will not provide Ukrainian soldiers with Leopard 2 tank training. Austria Refuses to Train Ukrainian Soldiers on Leopard Tanks
  • Crescono le preoccupazioni cinesi per l’esercitazione di combattimento aereo tra Giappone e India (ORF, Atul Kumar). For China, the Veer Guardian 2023 exercise comes as an ominous portent for the future. Growing Chinese concerns over Japan-India Air Combat Exercise 
  • Russia, Cina e Sudafrica condurranno esercitazioni navali congiunte (The Jamestown Foundation, Stephen Blank). From February 17 to 27, the navies of Russia, China and South Africa will conduct joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Durban, the largest port in South Africa (, January 19). This marks the second time these governments have held joint exercises, the first being in 2019 (The Diplomat, November 22, 2019). Although those exercises were noteworthy at the time, little came of them.  Russia, China and South Africa to Conduct Joint Naval Exercises
  • L’Iraq chiede agli Stati Uniti di sostituire gli elicotteri Mi-17 russi a causa della carenza di pezzi di ricambio (The Defense Post). The Iraqi military has requested the US replace its Russian Mi-17 helicopters with American aircraft due to spare parts supply restrictions. Iraq Asks US to Replace Russian Mi-17 Helicopters Due to Spare Parts Shortage
  • L’acquisto di jet da combattimento russi da parte dell’Iran sottolinea il cambiamento della geopolitica regionale (The Jamestown Foundation, Vali Kaleji). The news of Iran’s planned purchase of Russian Sukhoi Su-35 advanced fighter jets is the latest sign of deepening relations between Tehran and Moscow. Iran’s Purchase of Russian Fighter Jets Underlines Shifting Regional Geopolitics
  • I palloni aerostatici cinesi avvistati sul Medio Oriente non rappresentavano una minaccia, dice un generale a tre stelle (Defense News, Rachel S. Cohen). U.S. forces in the Middle East spotted a Chinese stratospheric balloon floating through the region last fall, though it did not pass over any “sensitive” military sites and was not seen as a threat, an Air Force three-star general told reporters Monday. Chinese balloons spotted over Mideast posed no threat, three-star says
  • L’adesione di Svezia e Finlandia alla NATO non è la “questione principale”: Stoltenberg (The Defense Post). NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday it was important Sweden and Finland joined NATO as soon as possible, but ratifying them at the same time was not the “main question.”. Sweden, Finland Joining NATO Together Not ‘Main Question:’ Stoltenberg
  • Occhi puntati sull’Ucraina, la NATO prepara nuove linee guida sulle munizioni per incrementare la produzione (Defense News,
  • Iniziativa della NATO per rafforzare la raccolta di dati spaziali dell’Alleanza (Defense News, Vivienne Machi). NATO plans to launch a new effort this week to streamline the process of gathering, disseminating, and distributing the reams of data collected in space for use by the alliance command structure. NATO initiative to bolster alliance’s space-based data collection
  • I gruppi di lavoro del Consiglio di cooperazione USA-Golfo si concentrano sulle minacce iraniane (Breaking Defense, Ashley Roque). “We have seen no change in Iranian willingness or activities to transfer weapons to the Houthis despite their work with increasing military cooperation with Russia,” said Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Dana Stroul. US-Gulf Cooperation Council working groups to zero in on Iranian threats
  • La Marina statunitense collabora con Qualcomm per la ricerca su 5G e intelligenza artificiale (Defense News, Colin Demarest). The Naval Postgraduate School and wireless specialist Qualcomm Technologies inked a cooperative research agreement to explore 5G, artificial intelligence and cloud computing, some of the U.S. Defense Department’s most pressing priorities. US Navy teams with Qualcomm to research 5G, artificial intelligence
  • USA. Una “moderna strategia di sicurezza nazionale”: Domande e risposte con Ro Khanna (Defense One, Jennifer Hlad). The ranking member of a HASC tech subcommittee has thoughts on China, chips, and how the Pentagon should integrate its approach to both. A ‘Modern National Security Strategy’: Q&A with Rep. Ro Khanna


  • Cosa significa per l’Europa la rinascita dell’Arabia Saudita (European Council on Foreign Relations, Cinzia Bianco). Saudi Arabia is resurgent as a leader in the Middle East and North Africa. The Saudi foreign minister’s visit to Brussels represents an opportunity for the EU to explore more active cooperation on projects in the region. The comeback kingdom: What a resurgent Saudi Arabia means for Europe
  • Prossimo vertice UE-America Latina: presidenza spagnola, preparazione tedesca? (IRIS, Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky). Bruxelles et « les 27 » se préparent à recevoir les 17 et 18 juillet prochains les représentants des 33 pays membres de la CELAC, la Communauté des États latino-américains et de la Caraïbe. Ce sommet, le troisième du genre, vient ranimer un forum diplomatique tombé en léthargie. Le dernier du genre avait été organisé en effet les 10 et 11 juin 2015 à Bruxelles. Prochain sommet UE/Amérique latine : présidence espagnole, préparation allemande ?
  • Stati Uniti, Cina e i “nuovi Paesi non allineati” (Brookings, Madiha AfzalBruce Riedel, and Natan Sachs). In his National Security Strategy, U.S. President Joe Biden outlined his view of global competition with China and the American desire to “work in lockstep with our allies and partners and with all those who share our interests.”[1] But this desire for cooperation faces an obvious problem: Many countries would rather not choose sides, and they gain leverage from playing great powers off each other. The problem is especially acute in regions where America’s emphasis on liberal democracy contradicts the interests of some of the regions’ governments. The United States, China, and the “new non-aligned” countries
  • Dalla diplomazia del ping-pong alla crisi del pallone (Edam, Ali Tuygan). On April 10, 1971, the US table tennis team arrived in China. Later in the year, in July 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a secret trip to China paving the way for President Nixon’s own visit. The US President and his Chinese hosts agreed to the joint “Shanghai Communique” of February 27, 1972, in which both nations pledged to work toward the full normalization of diplomatic relations. As part of the effort, on May 1, 1973, the US opened a liaison office in Beijing to handle all matters in the US-China relationship except the strictly formal diplomatic aspects of the relationship.”. China created a counterpart office in Washington in the same year. Finally, on January 1, 1979, the US recognized the People’s Republic of China and established diplomatic relations with it as the sole legitimate government of China. From Ping-Pong Diplomacy to Balloon Crisis
  • Relazioni incrinate tra Stati Uniti e Cina (CFR). In a webinar, panelists discuss the relationship between the United States and China, how confrontational and sometimes false narratives in both countries are affecting it, and how the governments of both countries might respond to the escalation of tensions.  C.V. Starr & Co. Annual Lecture on China: Frayed Relations—The United States and China


  • L’OPEC+ e il mercato globale del petrolio (Manohhar Parrikar Institute, Priya Singh). OPEC+, a coalition of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing and exporting members was formed in 2016 to address issues pertaining to oil market instability as well as consolidate geopolitical leverage of its members on account of falling oil prices and competition by the US shale boom. OPEC+ policies has had significant implications for oil importing developing countries such as India and China as well as other producer states such as the United States. OPEC+ and the Global Oil Market
  • Book Review: Six Faces of Globalization (AIIA, Melissa Conley Tyler). This important book returns the rich and contextually valuable perspectives of different peoples to the policy forefront. The broad divisiveness witnessed globally, but with specific emphasis on democratic nations, could be better managed if we were all willing to be a little foxier.  Book Review: Six Faces of Globalization


  • La leadership globale dell’America è compromessa dalle politiche economiche statunitensi (PIIE, Alan Wm. Wolff). President Joseph R. Biden’s rousing State of the Union speech this month vividly reiterated American support for democracy in Europe and Asia. The United States, he declared, is forging military and political ties with allies to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. America’s global leadership is being undercut by US economic policies
  • Disaccoppiamento consapevole: La sfida europea al gas russo nel 2023 (European Council on Foreign Relations, Szymon Kardaś). Europeans made remarkable progress in removing Russian gas from their energy mix in 2022. But 2023 brings with it a whole host of new challenges. Conscious uncoupling: Europeans’ Russian gas challenge in 2023
  • L’Azerbaigian diffida delle vere intenzioni dell’oligarca russo Vardanyan in Karabakh (The Jamestown Foundation, Rusif Huseynov). On November 17, 2022, during a meeting with a European Union delegation led by Special Envoy for the Eastern Partnership Dirk Schuebel in Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham declared, “We are ready to talk … with Armenians who live in Karabakh, not with those who have been sent from Moscow hiding in their pockets billions of stolen money from Russian people, like the man called ‘Vardanyan’ who was transferred there [Karabakh] from Moscow with a very clear agenda” (, November 17, 2022). Azerbaijan Grows Wary of Russian Oligarch Vardanyan’s True Intentions in Karabakh
  • L’assurda ironia dell’invocazione di Stalingrado da parte di Putin (The Strategist, ). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address in Volgograd on 2 February, in which he sought to draw moral parallels between the heroic Soviet defence of Stalingrad in World War II and the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, represents a new low for Kremlin propaganda. The absurd irony of Putin’s invocation of Stalingrad
  • Verso una nuova Doha? (Carnegie Middle East Center, Michael Young). Lebanon’s political forces await a regional and international consensus to help resolve the country’s political and economic stalemate. Toward a New Doha?
  • Terremoto in Turchia: prime scosse di assestamento politico e geopolitico (IRIS, Didier Billion). Alors que l’attention de la société turque se concentrait de plus en plus vers les échéances présidentielle et législative planifiées pour le 14 mai prochain, le terrible séisme qui a affecté le pays le lundi 6 février est en situation de profondément modifier les paramètres de ces élections. Une catastrophe d’une telle ampleur peut en effet rebattre les cartes sans qu’il soit à ce jour possible de discerner clairement en quel sens. Séisme en Turquie : premières répliques politiques et géopolitiques
  • La politica del terremoto in Turchia (Carnegie Europe, Sinan Ülgen). The Turkish polity must examine and overhaul the rules and institutions that have failed to effectively mitigate the human cost of this tragedy. The next wave of earthquakes could hit Istanbul with even more disastrous consequences. The Politics of Türkiye’s Earthquake
  • Un forte terremoto potrebbe ridisegnare la politica turca e siriana (CFR,  Henri J. Barkey). Turkish President Erdogan and Syrian President Assad could see opportunities to extend their rules in the disaster that has killed tens of thousands and pushed relief systems to their limits. Massive Earthquake Could Reshape Turkish and Syrian Politics
  • I terremoti trascinano le parti in guerra in Siria lontano dalla pace (Chatham House, Lina Khatib). Even amid an outpouring of international support, the catastrophe is caught up in the politics of the Syria war with political leaders aiming for legitimacy. Earthquakes drag Syria’s warring sides away from peace
  • Bashar el-Assad cerca di porre fine all’isolamento del regime siriano (JCPA, Yoni Ben Menachem). I recenti terremoti in Siria hanno rivelato quanto il regime siriano sia isolato dal punto di vista arabo e internazionale. Il presidente Bashar Assad sta cercando disperatamente di approfittare del terribile disastro per ottenere la revoca delle pesanti sanzioni imposte dagli Stati Uniti e dall’Unione Europea al suo regime. Gli aiuti arrivati a Damasco negli ultimi giorni da diversi Paesi arabi ed europei sono stati presi dal regime e trasportati nei mercati per essere venduti. Bashar el-Assad Seeks to End the Isolation of the Syrian Regime
  • Anni di negligenza e clientelismo alla base del devastante bilancio del terremoto in Turchia (The Strategist, ). The magnitude 7.8 earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria a week ago, and the powerful aftershock that followed, have left at least 30,000 people dead. More than 5,000 buildings have collapsed, including critical infrastructure such as hospitals and schools. The death toll could rise by tens of thousands over the coming days as emergency services dig through the rubble and unearth the tragedy. Years of negligence and cronyism underpin devastating earthquake toll in Turkey
  • Pakistan, violenza politica, Jihad (Manohar Parrikar Institute, Nazir Ahmad Mir). Pakistan witnessed a gruesome suicide bombing in a mosque on 30 January 2023 in Peshawar, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Over 100 people were killed and more than 220 wounded. Omar Mukaram Khorasani, the head of the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a splinter group of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. The TTP denied the claim and insisted that it does not attack “mosques, madrasas (religious schools), funeral places, and other such places.”. The statement, however, does not hold much water, given the TTP’s organizational structure, ideology and its past attacks.  TTP’s Political Violence and Jihad
  • Valutazione delle elezioni nepalesi del 2022 (Vivekananda International Foundation, Aarushi Gupta). The year 2022 witnessed elections at all three levels of government in Nepal. These were the second elections held at each level since the Nepalese Constitution that was enacted in the year 2015. Nepal has had a tumultuous past in terms of its politics and its road to democracy. After a prolonged period of instability, it finally became a multi-party federal republic with the implementation of the new Constitution. Despite the apparent influence and power dynamics, Nepal has skilfully managed to maintain its sovereignty and social structure. The local-level elections were held on 13 May. Whereas provincial and national level elections were held simultaneously on 20 November. Assessment of the Nepal Elections 2022
  • La Cambogia lavora per una politica estera indipendente (East Asia Forum, Chansambath Bong). Taking the baton for the third time as the ASEAN chair in 2022, Cambodia’s diplomatic tenacity was tested by the war in Ukraine, Myanmar’s political upheaval, cross-Strait tensions, COVID-19 and US–China competition. Despite this precarity, Cambodia steered ASEAN through geopolitically choppy waters. The outlook for 2023 promises to be similarly exigent for Cambodia’s foreign policy. Cambodia working towards independent foreign policy
  • Myanmar, il regime e le conseguenze sulla politica ambientale (East Asia Forum, Adam Simpson, Thomas Kean, and Susan Park). In the two years since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar’s natural environment has deteriorated as the embryonic legal and regulatory regime that was emerging during the decade of political and economic reforms has unravelled. Myanmar’s arrested environmental activism
  • La guerra civile in Myanmar: nessuna fine in vista (Brookings, Yun Sun). The second anniversary of the February 2021 coup d’état in Myanmar has just passed, and the abysmal state of armed conflict, insurgency, chaos, and anarchy has only been deteriorating. Despite the repeated calls by regional organizations like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and by the United Nations to stop the violence, protect human rights, and respect the democratic process, the Burmese military junta has demonstrated no appetite for political concessions or negotiation with the resistance movement. With the uncertainty associated with the postponed general elections this year — which most speculate will be neither free nor fair nor legitimate — the civil war inside Myanmar is likely to only escalate in 2023. There is no end in sight. The civil war in Myanmar: No end in sight