Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (22 febbraio 2023 PM)

  • Le ambizioni della Cina e la risposta dei Paesi baltici (Foreign Policy Research Institute, Ben Gardner-Gill). Do Russia and China really have a “friendship without limits?” How are the Baltic states positioning themselves in the shifting sands of global security? What sort of role could they have as multilateral coalitions seek to address China as both a strategic competitor and critical trade partner? Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, head of the China Studies Centre at Riga Stradiņš University, provides expert insight into this rapidly changing set of relationships and how they might develop.  China’s Ambitions and the Baltic Response
  • Mentre gli Stati Uniti si preoccupano dell’influenza di Pechino in Medio Oriente, le aziende cinesi del settore della difesa accorrono a IDEX 2023 (Breaking Defense, Ashley Roque). From armed drones to supersonic cruise missiles, China’s defense industry turned out in force with offerings at this year’s International Defense Exhibition in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, at a time US officials are concerned about Beijing’s influence in the Middle East.  As US worries over Beijing’s influence in Middle East, Chinese defense firms flock to IDEX 2023
  • Cosa possono imparare i governi europei dalla cooperazione tra Cina e Golfo (ECFR, Alicja Bachulska, Cinzia Bianco). To compete with China’s influence in the Gulf, European governments should embrace multipolarity and offer concrete alternatives to Gulf monarchies.  An open relationship: What European governments can learn from China-Gulf cooperation
  • Una moneta digitale per l’Algeria (Cercle d’Action et de Réflexion Autour de l’Entreprise). La Monnaie numérique de Banque centrale (MNBC) gagne rapidement du terrain. Cette monnaie offre de grandes opportunités pour promouvoir l’inclusion financière tout en bouleversant l’architecture financière et bancaire traditionnelle des pays qui l’adoptent.  Une monnaie numérique pour l’Algérie
  • Il governo israeliano deve prestare attenzione agli avvertimenti degli USA (MITVIM, Nadav Tamir). The recent visit of United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel will be remembered mostly for exposing US criticism of Israeli government policy, moving it from behind closed doors to center stage.
  • MENA: favorire la creazione di posti di lavoro dignitosi e “formalizzare l’informalità” (Economic Research Forum,  Philippe Adair, Vladimir Hlasny). The crisis posed by employment informality in the Middle East and North Africa must be tackled head on in the region’s pursuit of sustainable and inclusive development. As this column explains, in the drive to formalise occupations and create an adequate number of decent jobs, there is a need for vocational upskilling and life-long learning, support for formal enterprises and promotion of a ‘social and solidarity economy’.  Fostering decent job creation and formalising informality in MENA
  • Il grande gioco dell’attesa: perché le élite libanesi rimandano il compromesso (Economic Research Forum, Mounir Mahmalat). What explains the intransigence of Lebanon’s political elites to resolve the country’s long-running financial and economic crisis? This column argues that the determinants for reaching political settlements – a succession of deals among powerful political elites on how to distribute political power and economic resources – have changed over time, making a grand waiting game the best strategy for each party.  The grand waiting game: why Lebanon’s elites postpone compromise
  • I Paesi del Golfo di Guinea e la minaccia del terrorismo (Manohar Parrikar Institute, Sindhu Dinesh). Terrorists are expanding beyond landlocked Sahelian countries and reaching the northern borders of Gulf of Guinea littoral states like Ghana, Togo and Cote d’Ivoire, taking advantage of extant domestic fault lines, poor governance, and security deficit. The international community can help empower government structures to tackle this threat effectively. India has important stakes in West Africa. It could consider extending counter-terrorism training to countries like Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire to help build their capacities as well as engage in tri-lateral cooperation with partners like France or Japan.  Gulf of Guinea Countries and Terrorism Threat
  • La politica nepalese e l’agitazione post-elettorale (Vivekananda International Foundation, Aarushi Gupta). Nepal politics never has a dull moment. From elections to government formation to maintaining the government, each aspect of Nepal politics is nothing short of a thriller. In 2022, Nepal held its second local, provincial and federal elections since the 2015 implementation of its Constitution. The results were an incredible amalgamation of the unlikeliest of alliances and fierce power struggle within the Parliament.  Post-election turmoil within Nepalese politics
  • Il Pakistan è seriamente intenzionato a dialogare con l’India? (ORF, Sarral Sharma). In an interview with Al Arabiya TV in Dubai, Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, extended a conciliatory gesture towards India by expressing his desire for peace and imploring for “serious and sincere” talks between the two countries.  Is Pakistan serious about talks with India?
  • Perché l’India è la chiave del multilateralismo del XXI secolo (ORF, Samir Saran). Four watershed events since 2020 — a short period, but with apologies to Lenin, decades have happened in this time — have established India’s credentials as one of the last major bulwarks of a rules-based order, open and fair trade and economic arrangements, and the rule of law. These are critical elements if we are to build a new world order that is balanced, inclusive and fair.  Why India is key to 21st century multilateralism
  • India-USA. Un nuovo capitolo nella difesa e nella tecnologia (ORF, Manoj Joshi). Earlier this month, the U.S. and India inaugurated their initiative on critical and emerging technologies (ICET). The promise of this initiative, if fulfilled, could have a transformative impact on India-U.S. relations.  A new chapter in defence and tech
  • I progetti di connettività dell’India con il Myanmar dopo il colpo di stato: un bilancio (ORF, Sreeparna Banerjee). Myanmar, which shares a border with four of India’s north-eastern states—Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Manipur, and Nagaland—is crucial to the country’s ‘Act East’ policy. India has a number of projects with Myanmar in the pipeline, seeking to improve physical connectivity through transport links, which in turn can assist in both countries’ development goals. Since the military coup in Myanmar on 1 February 2021, the country has been experiencing political instability, increased incidence of violence, and an economic slowdown. This brief evaluates the repercussions on the country’s physical connectivity projects with India. It highlights the Chin state, which is pivotal to the projects.  India’s Connectivity Projects with Myanmar, Post-Coup: A Stocktaking
  • La sospensione del trattato New START non avvantaggia alcuno (SIPRI, Dan Smith). Yesterday, in his State of the Nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would suspend its participation in New START, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the world’s two nuclear superpowers: Russia and the United States.  Statement by Dan Smith, SIPRI Director: Suspending the New START treaty benefits nobody
  • L’opposizione della Turchia all’adesione svedese alla NATO: cause e conseguenze (AIIA, Çiğdem Üstün). The controversy between Türkiye, Sweden, and Finland over NATO membership continues to aid Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine. With US weapons agreements now caught up in the bid, Türkiye’s opposition has likely narrowed.  Türkiye’s Opposition to Swedish NATO Membership: Causes and Consequences
  • Perché la NATO dovrebbe convincere la Turchia ad ammettere la Svezia (ECFR, Mats Engström). The longer that Ankara delays Swedish membership of NATO, the harder it may become to sustain public support and prepare effective Baltic defence.  Baltic defence: Why NATO should persuade Turkey to admit Sweden
  • Rigenerare la credibilità bellica delle forze aeree europee della NATO (RUSI, Justin Bronk). This paper examines three challenges for European NATO air forces in deterring future aggression by Russia against Alliance members – the current vulnerability of NATO air bases and options for hardening or dispersal; current shortfalls in NATO aircrew readiness for high-intensity combat and the changes required to fix them; and the need for SEAD/DEAD capabilities and appropriate munitions stockpiles.  Regenerating Warfighting Credibility for European NATO Air Forces
  • Cina, Turchia e la maggior parte dei Paesi dell’Asia centrale e del Caucaso cercano da tempo di creare un Middle Corridor  che colleghi l’Asia orientale e l’Europa (Foreign Policy Research Institute, Felix K. Chang).  China, Turkey, and most of the countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus have long sought to create a Middle Corridor trade route that connects East Asia and Europe. Strategically, the trade route bypasses the Northern Corridor (which Russia dominates) and the traditional maritime route through the Indian Ocean (which the United States could interdict).  The Middle Corridor through Central Asia: Trade and Influence Ambitions
  • Tutti gli occhi sono puntati sulla Cina mentre la guerra della Russia in Ucraina e la reazione dell’Occidente si trovano in una situazione di stallo (ORF, Harsh V. Pant). The one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine marks an important turning point in our understanding of the post-Second World War global order. What was supposed to be a short and successful war against what seemed like a military minnow is now entering into its second year with the mighty Russian army looking like a pale reflection of its old self. Every day that the Ukrainians have stood up against Russia is a reminder that in wars raw power differential is not really a determinant of battlefield success. Effective execution of resources matters much more and Russia has been found wanting at a number of levels.  All eyes on China as Russia’s war in Ukraine and the West’s pushback hit a stalemate
  • La corsa contro il tempo dell’Occidente per sostenere l’Ucraina (Carnegie Europe, Judy Dempsey). The Europeans must match their rhetorical support for Ukraine with more military aid. This could put an end to Russia’s war and avoid a division of Europe.  The West’s Race Against Time in Supporting Ukraine
  • Il pericolo persistente della guerra in Ucraina per l’energia nucleare (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, James Acton). The most acute threats to Zaporizhzhia have passed, at least for now, but the West should make greater efforts to wean itself off Russian nuclear exports.  The Ukraine War’s Lingering Nuclear Power Danger
  • Come l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina ha cambiato il mondo (Chatham House). Chatham House experts examine how the world has changed since 24 February 2022.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: How it changed the world
  • Un anno della guerra della Russia in Ucraina (RUSI, Neil Melvin). As we approach the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Global Security Briefing looks at the effects of the war, the potential risks for escalation, and what to expect in the future.  A Year of Russia’s War in Ukraine