Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine – 9 febbraio 2023 PM


  • L’Australia ha bisogno di un approccio globale all’assistenza umanitaria e ai soccorsi per i disastri nelle isole del Pacifico (AIIA, Miranda Booth, Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann). Experience has shown that weather and climate change disasters can produce unpredictable and volatile scenarios for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR). As events increase in their intensity, a framework for Australia-Pacific Island state cooperation and adaptation is needed more than ever. Australia Needs a Comprehensive Approach to Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief in the Pacific Islandsrs


  • I Balcani occidentali e gli attori esterni (SWP, Marina Vulović).  Even though the six Western Balkan countries (WB6) have close political ties with the EU, their alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) has in­creasingly come into focus since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. The EU should take a differentiated view of the WB6’s political and security cooperation with external actors such as Russia, China and Turkey. Within the WB6, the two “outliers” of Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska use their for­eign and security relations with Russia to achieve their own political goals. While Serbia seeks support for its Kosovo policy, Republika Srpska is trying to get backing for its separatist tendencies. The WB6 are not expected to end their cooperation with the aforementioned external actors in the near future. Nonetheless, in today’s shift­ing geopolitical arena, the EU must set priorities that bind the WB6’s outliers to the CFSP.  Western Balkan Foreign and Security Ties with External Actors


  • L’iniziativa del Canada offre un’opportunità al processo di pace in Camerun (Crisis Group). Pre-talks between Cameroon’s government and Anglophone separatists, facilitated by Canada, have opened the door to a long overdue peace process, but Yaoundé has baulked. The government should embrace these talks, while domestic and external actors should put their full weight behind the initiative. Canada Initiative Offers Opportunity for Cameroon Peace Process


  • La Cina è la chiave della domanda globale di energia (CSIS, Ben Cahill and Ilaria Mazzocco). Global energy prices hinge on China’s economic recovery. China’s reopening will boost oil and gas demand this year, especially if the government succeeds in stimulating investment in construction and real estate. Stronger industrial activity should increase China’s natural gas imports, and a rebound in mobility will boost gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel demand. Still, there are lingering questions about weak consumer sentiment and high debt levels. The strength of the recovery will dictate how China adjusts crude oil import quotas and refined product export quotas—and the latter could prove critical as the oil market adjusts to a price cap on Russian products. China Holds the Key to Global Energy Demand


  • Il futuro dell’energia in Europa (Foreign Policy Research Institute, Ben Gardner-Gill, Agnia Grigas). How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affected Europe’s energy mix? How are European states balancing the move towards a green future with their present needs? How are the Baltic states positioning themselves in these European debates? Dr. Agnia Grigas, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, gives us the historical context and future factors that will affect European energy security for decades to come. The Future of European Energy: An interview with Dr. Agnia Grigas
  • La ridisegnata mappa della sicurezza in Europa pone la Germania al centro della scena (CIDOB, Francis Ghilès). The war in Ukraine is redrawing the security and economic map of Europe. As neutral Sweden and Finland seek membership of NATO, power will gravitate towards a new alliance of Northern, Eastern and the Baltic states. Will this weaken the Franco-German alliance which has been the bedrock of the European project for seventy years? Redrawn security map of Europe puts Germany centre stage
  • Il potere del pragmatismo: energia nucleare, innovazione tecnologica e transizione verde (ECFR, Svilen Spasov). To propel the green transition, the EU needs to combine more self-sufficiency in nuclear energy with a forward-thinking approach to technological innovation. The power of pragmatism: Nuclear energy, technological innovation, and the green transition
  • L’UE deve conciliare geopolitica e democrazia (Carnegie Europe, Rosa Balfour). To make enlargement work, the EU has to marry geopolitics to democracy. By doing so, it can restore its credibility in candidate countries and avoid a Balkans scenario in Ukraine. The EU Must Reconcile Geopolitics and Democracy


  • La promessa non mantenuta della politica estera e di sicurezza dell’UE nei confronti dell’Iran (CIDOB, Riccardo Alcaro,  Steven Blockmans, Akın Ünver, Sine Özkaraşahin). With the 2015 nuclear deal dead in all but name, Iran is getting closer to Russia and more repressive at home, while EU member states’ priorities about the Islamic Republic now extend beyond nuclear proliferation to human rights and European security. This shift in priorities cements a re-orientation of the EU’s approach to Iran from conditional engagement to confrontation. EU member states’ options are limited, however. Pressure worked prior to the nuclear agreement because the EU cut off significant trade with Iran. But US extraterritorial sanctions, reimposed after the United States left the deal in 2018, have rendered EU-Iran trade so modest that cutting it would have little impact. The EU could get more leverage by providing incentives, yet the political inexpediency of rewarding Iran at a time of rising belligerence of the Islamic Republic greatly restricts the range of benefits potentially on offer. Still, in the mid- to longer term, the EU and its member states will need to combine pressure with some form of incentives if they want to defend their interests in non-proliferation, European security and the protection of human rights in Iran. They also need to resort to a variety of international partnerships in order to maximise their residual leverage. The Unfulfilled Promise of EU Foreign and Security Policy towards Iran


  • Il nuovo budget per la difesa del Giappone non è ancora sufficiente (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jennifer Kavanagh). Despite Tokyo’s significant commitments to increased spending, its transition may be too slow to affect U.S. military planning or to reduce the U.S. regional defense burden. Japan’s New Defense Budget Is Still Not Enough


  • Regalare i Typhoon della RAF all’Ucraina sarebbe un gesto simbolico molto costoso (RUSI, Justin Bronk). No options should be ruled out when it comes to helping Ukraine. But the idea of transferring UK fighter aircraft makes little military sense. Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture
  • Ucraina. L’assistenza alla sicurezza guidata dagli Stati Uniti sta funzionando (RUSI, Jahara Matisek, Will Reno and Sam Rosenberg). While some have criticised the pace of Western military assistance to Ukraine, there can be no doubt that it has made a real and tangible difference on the battlefield. US-led Security Assistance to Ukraine is Working



  • La sfida dell’Indonesia come presidente dell’ASEAN per affrontare la questione del Myanmar (VIF, Rajaram Panda). Indonesia assumed the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after in 2023 and hosted its first major meeting of the group’s Foreign Ministers at the ASEAN Secretariat on 3 February 2023 on a slew of issues affecting the region. Challenge before Indonesia as ASEAN Chair to Deal with Myanmar Issue



  • Una facile preda? L’influenza della Russia in Bulgaria (ECFR, Vessela Tcherneva). Newly released investigations have shed light on how corruption and the weak rule of law in Bulgaria enable Russian influence to thrive. Easy prey? Russia’s influence in Bulgaria


  • Il discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione ha lezioni per l’unità transatlantica (Chatham House). Analysing key foreign policy aspects of President Joe Biden’s annual address, and what it means for the upcoming Munich Security Conference and the year ahead. State of the Union has lessons for transatlantic unity


  • Bilanciare molteplici obiettivi nelle relazioni tra Stati Uniti e Cina (CSIS, Scott Kennedy). The notion that a balloon slowly floating across the continental United States at 60,000 feet would dominate the headlines and become an international incident of the highest order almost seems laughable on first glance. Trial Balloon: Balancing Multiple Goals in U.S.-China Relations