LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence
(International Institute for Strategic Studies) William Alberque is joined by Simon Cleobury, Head of Arms Control and Disarmament at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, to discuss the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its connection to arms control.
Artificial intelligence and arms control with Simon Cleobury (iiss.org)
Climate Action – Energy Transition
1 – (World Resources Institute) A paper discusses the benefits and opportunities of producing chemicals using feedstocks and energy carriers that are not fossil fuels—an emission reduction pathway referred to as chemical defossilization. The analysis finds that the U.S. chemical industry has great potential to procure sufficient non-fossil feedstocks to produce bulk chemicals, with some regional advantages. It proposes technologies that could catalyze growth of fossil-free supply chains, estimates volumes of non-fossil feedstocks needed to satisfy demand and maps where feedstocks could be sourced and processed.
2 – (Zach Byrum – World Resources Institute) Fossil fuels aren’t just used to power cars, heat buildings and keep the lights on. They are, quite literally, woven into almost every facet of our lives.
3 – (Gaia Larsen, Valerie Laxton – World Resources Institute) The World Bank and other multilateral development banks (MDBs) are on the cusp of evolution. Their transformation is fundamental to the world’s ability to simultaneously tackle the climate crisis and poverty.
Ten years ago, having had no substantial policies for climate change, development banks began to gather climate data and increase attention to the impacts of climate change. This process gradually led to where we are today, with the MDBs recently releasing principles on how to align all their investments with the international Paris Agreement on climate change. The World Bank also committed to combat climate change as part of its mission, with other MDBs likely to follow suit.
5 Ways MDBs Can Support Climate Action | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
European Union
1 – (Giovanni Grevi – Carnegie Europe) Early 2024 marked a second “geopolitical awakening” for Europe, following the shock induced by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
2 – (Bhargabi Bharadwaj – Chatham House) The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) has set an important precedent through its 9 April judgment in the Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland case. In its ruling, the Court states that Switzerland has a responsibility under the European Convention for Human Rights (ECHR) to combat climate change effectively to protect the human rights of their citizens – and as a result can be held accountable for inadequate climate policies and mitigation measures.
European Union – India
(James Crabtree, Manisha Reuter – European Council on Foreign Relations) Ties between Brussels and New Delhi have long struggled to reach their potential. After their respective elections, shared geopolitical concerns about China and common goals on topics from technology to economic security can provide a chance for a reboot
Rebooting EU-India relations: How to unlock post-election potential | ECFR
Global Economy
(David Lubin – Chatham House) As the world’s finance officials head to Washington this week for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, they are likely to be in a rather buoyant mood. The global economy – in broad terms – shows signs of surprisingly strong growth, while inflationary pressures continue to fall, notwithstanding recent jitters about price pressures in the US.
India
1 – (Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) As India goes to the polls in 2024, this paper examines the interplay between two dominant narratives on India today: the country’s rise as an increasingly prominent geopolitical and economic actor; and concerns about democratic backsliding.
2 – (Rumi Aijaz – Observer Research Foundation) Delhi—a city and union territory of India containing the country’s capital, New Delhi—continues to grow in population, posing challenges to civic agencies in the provision of citizens’ essential needs. This brief examines the experience of Delhi’s water agency in obtaining raw water, amid the growing gap in supply and demand that is only being exacerbated by climate change. The brief finds multiple reasons for the inadequacy of raw water, including infrastructure deficiencies, inter-state disputes in water sharing, and groundwater pollution. It highlights the need to augment the raw water base and improve its management in order to build Delhi’s water resilience.
Exploring Ways to Fill Delhi’s Unmet Water Needs (orfonline.org)
3 – (Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Sofiya Azad – International Institute for Strategic Studies) India’s upcoming general election will be especially significant. While Modi is likely to win a third consecutive term, the BJP is targeting a two-thirds majority that could enable it to accelerate its Hindu-centric initiatives.
India’s elections: Modi and the BJP target two-thirds majority (iiss.org)
India – USA
(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Lall – Observer Research Foundation) In June 2023, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi joined an elite league of leaders, such as Winston Churchill and Nelson Mandela, who have been invited to address the United States (US) Congress twice. In his first address to the joint meeting of the US Congress in 2016, relatively newly minted as prime minister, Modi celebrated how India and the US had overcome “the hesitations of history” and called upon the two nations to “work together to convert shared ideals into practical cooperation”. In 2023, this time basking in the prestige of India serving as president of the G20, he described the partnership between India and the US as the “defining partnership of this century”. He said: “Through the long and winding road that we [India and the US] have travelled, we have met the test of friendship”.
Aligned but Autonomous: India-US Relations in the Modi Era (orfonline.org)
India – Uzbekistan
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) Chief of Army Staff (COAS) of the Indian Army, General Manoj Pande is on a three-day visit to Uzbekistan from 15-18 April. In the backdrop of a fast-changing and unpredicted regional and international environment, this visit is highly significant. The Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas conflict, Israel-Iran conflict, instability in Afghanistan, and a terrorist attack in Moscow carried out by the Islamic State-related Tajik terrorists have prompted Central Asian countries to consider bolstering their security infrastructure. As one of the most important partners, Russia has been considered to be the security guarantor in Central Asia, especially through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are members of this regional security grouping while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not part of it.
Japan
(International Institute for Strategic Studies) Robert Ward, Alessio Patalano (Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London), Veerle Nouwens (Executive Director of IISS-Asia) and Nick Childs (IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security) discuss Japan’s maritime security policy in the Indo-Pacific.
Near East
1 – (Crisis Group) Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation.
The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink | Crisis Group
2 – (Galia Lavi – The Institute for National Security Studies) “China strongly condemns and firmly opposes the attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, regarding it as a serious violation of international law and unacceptable. China has noted Iran’s statement that its action taken was limited and was an act of self-defense.” These are the words of China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, presenting Beijing’s position regarding the recent confrontations between Israel and Iran.
China and the Iranian Attack: Beijing-Style Neutrality | INSS
3 – (Yoni Ben Menachem – Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Iran has declared the adoption of a new approach in its relationship with Israel, marking the end of the “strategic patience” policy initiated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The conflict between Israel and Iran has entered a new phase, posing a challenge to Israel’s policies. Israel cannot acquiesce to Iran’s new approach, which seeks to constrain its freedom of military action in the Middle East.
Redefining the Israel-Iran Dynamic: Tehran Now Reverses its “Strategic Patience” (jcpa.org)
4 – (Khaled Abu Toameh – Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) The new Palestinian Authority government, headed by Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa, has appealed to some Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Algeria, to support its effort to assume control of the Gaza Strip. Mustafa appealed during meetings and phone calls with leaders and senior officials of these countries after he took over from his predecessor, Mohammad Shtayyeh, earlier this month.
Is the Palestinian Authority Trying to Return to Gaza? (jcpa.org)
5 – (Nathan J. Brown, Vladimir Pran – Carnegie Middle East Center) With the Gaza war now into its seventh month and no clear end in sight, Israeli and global commentators have shown discomfort and discouragement with the conflict’s course and possible outcomes. It seems as if nothing is going according to plan. Phrases like “defeat” and “forever wars” recur. Concern has grown in Israel that the country may be turning into a pariah state. Gazans are faced with unimaginable and unmet humanitarian needs, while talk of reconstruction cannot even begin. The discomfort and discouragement are understandable, but the surprise is much less justified: everything is going according to plan.
6 – (International Institute for Strategic Studies) Emile Hokayem and Gideon Rachman explore the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel following a significant Iranian missile and drone attack. They analyse the implications of Iran’s ‘Operation True Promise’ and the complex interplay of military strategies and international relations that could lead to further conflict or a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. The discussion also touches on the role of global powers like the United States and regional dynamics involving Gaza and Arab states.
Iran raises the stakes with attack on Israel (iiss.org)
Russia
1 – (Ella Itkin, Arkady Mil-Man – The Institute for National Security Studies) The Russian presidential election that was held on March 15–17 provided Russian military bloggers with an opportunity to promote a pro-Putin and pro-war narrative. An analysis of posts from three leading Telegram channels that appeared in the four months preceding the election indicates their connection with promoting the legitimacy of the government and continuing the war in Ukraine. In the election campaign, the posts depicted Ukraine and the West as antidemocratic and as trying to sabotage Russian democracy. Putin, for his part, was described as a strong leader who is defending democracy from foreign intervention and is waging a just war to establish democracy in the territories that Russia has conquered from Ukraine.
The Russian Presidential Election from the View of Russian Military Bloggers | INSS
2 – (Andrei Kolesnikov – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Russian President Vladimir Putin is creating his own model of a just society and efficient economy. It marries political mobilization and emotional demobilization, alternates between talk of war and peace, and offers massive assistance to those working “for victory.”
Putin’s New Social Justice – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russian War in Ukraine
1 – (Mykola Bielieskov – Atlantic Council) Millions of Ukrainians watched with mixed emotions over the weekend as a coalition of countries came together to protect Israeli airspace from Iranian bombardment. Ukraine’s reaction was hardly surprising. After all, this impressive display of international air defense efficiency was exactly what the Ukrainians themselves have been pleading for ever since Russia’s full-scale invasion of their country began in February 2022.
Western fear of escalation will hand Putin an historic victory in Ukraine – Atlantic Council
2 – (Lt Gen (Dr) V K Saxena (Retd), PVSM, AVSM, VSM – Vivekananda International Foundation) While much seems to be ‘advantage Russia’ at this point in time in the Russo-Ukraine war, the down under-belly of Black Sea is hurting them increasingly. Ukraine is going to play up this vulnerability in a big way as time rolls
Small Island Developing States
(Malshini Senaratne – Observer Research Foundation) The geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of small island developing states (SIDS) expose them to unique challenges. Climate change, in particular, poses a severe threat to SIDS, with rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and changing precipitation patterns negatively affecting their ecosystems, economies, and communities.
South Korea
1 – (Andrew Yeo – Brookings) President Yoon Suk Yeol’s conservative People Power Party (PPP) suffered a major setback in South Korea’s parliamentary election held on April 10, 2024. Of the 300 seats in the National Assembly, the PPP secured only 108 seats through direct and proportional elections. Meanwhile, the major progressive opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and its satellite parties expanded its majority to 175 seats, hampering Yoon’s ability to govern for his remaining three years in office. Although the Yoon government’s domestic agenda may become further imperiled, his active foreign policy agenda will largely stay intact, including his staunch support for the U.S.-South Korea alliance and promotion of South Korea as a global pivotal state.
Will South Korea change course following Yoon’s election loss? | Brookings
2 – (Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) The result of the South Korean parliamentary elections has surprised most political watchers. Swimming against the trend, the Opposition has won hands down against the current President’s Party, further increasing the divide between the ruling party and the opposition. This means that there would be a continued political logjam in the National Assembly. The results clearly highlight the voters’ dissent against the current president and his policies. As an important stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, it is important to understand the election’s impact on South Korea’s domestic political dynamics and its foreign policy.
The South Korean elections: Another round of political logjam? (orfonline.org)
Space
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) The seventh edition of Space Threat Assessment by the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). For the last six years, CSIS has used open-source information to produce an annual assessment of threats to U.S. national security space systems posed by foreign government capabilities. This year’s assessment covers the growing space and counterspace capabilities of China, Russia, India, Iran, North Korea, and other nations.
Space Threat Assessment 2024 (csis.org)
Türkiye – Indian Ocean
(Brendon J. Cannon – Observer Research Foundation) If the geopolitics competition during the Cold War was centred on Europe and the Atlantic, today it centres on the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, it is the Indian Ocean that is witnessing the most profound transformation. This is unfolding against the backdrop of what is now taken as an axiomatic multipolar world. In this complex environment, several non-traditional actors in the Indian Ocean are quickly making inroads. Foremost is Türkiye, a rising middle power located at the meeting point of Asia and Europe. With Black, Aegean, and Mediterranean Sea coasts, Türkiye is by no means a natural maritime power in the Indian Ocean, but it aspires to become one. Indeed, it wishes to be a truly global actor, and Ankara’s sights are clearly set on the Indian Ocean. Is this some opportunistic and aspirational neo-Ottoman theatre or a strategic power play by a capable regional newcomer? The answer, we believe, lies somewhere in the middle as to whether Türkiye’s capabilities can match its intent to emerge as an important maritime actor in the region.
Answering big questions about Türkiye in the Indian Ocean (orfonline.org)
United Kingdom
(Suzan Quitaz – Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Antisemitism in the United Kingdom is a pandemic. The findings come on the six-month anniversary of Hamas’s brutal invasion of Jewish communities in southern Israel when Hamas turned civilian homes into slaughterhouses and a musical festival into a bloodbath. On October 7, 2024, Hamas terrorists butchered in cold blood 1,200 people, including babies, women, and elderly, injured more than 3,300, and took hundreds of civilians hostage in Gaza, including a 9-month-old baby.
The Rise in Antisemitic Attacks in the UK since Hamas’s October 7 Pogrom Is Unprecedented (jcpa.org)
USA – South Africa – AGOA
(Witney Schneidman – Brookings) In 1998, flanked by U.S. President Bill Clinton and with Table Mountain looming in the background, South African President Nelson Mandela (after warmly welcoming the American president) used the opportunity of his first joint press conference with a U.S. president on South African soil to defend the country’s right to maintain positive relations with Libya, Cuba, and Iran.
South Africa, AGOA, and nonalignment | Brookings
USA – Taiwan
(Brookings) As China ramps up its military capabilities and tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, there are growing concerns about the risk of conflict that could involve the United States. Given the stakes, it is critical for American leaders and the American public to have a clear understanding of their top interests and objectives in the Taiwan Strait. Is America’s current approach working to protect its top interests? Should the United States change its long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” and its “One China” policy? Is conflict avoidable or inescapable? What policy tools will be most effective at upholding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait?
Should the United States change its policies toward Taiwan? | Brookings
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
