LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) On April 19, Armenia agreed to hand four contested villages back to Azerbaijan and continue talks on four more based on the 1991 Alma-Ata accord. Yerevan hailed this as the first step in improving bilateral talks, Western countries welcomed it as a step toward peace, while Russian commentators said it represented Armenia’s willingness to recognize realities on the ground. Residents of the four villages and the Armenian opposition are outraged, with citizens taking to the streets and the opposition warning of new countrywide demonstrations against Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Armenian Protests Over Return of Four Villages to Azerbaijan Threaten Peace Process – Jamestown
AUKUS
(Sarah Tzinieris – RUSI) The AUKUS pact has generated a frenzy of interest, especially in the nuclear-powered submarines that fall under Pillar I. However, there is far less information about the advanced capabilities being developed under Pillar II.
Australia
(Alexander Korolev, Fengshi Wu – RUSI) As tensions between the US and China continue to grow and efforts to ‘friend-shore’ supply chains gather pace, Australia is being forced to make a difficult choice when it comes to the future of its critical minerals strategy.
Baltic Region – NATO
(Marion Messmer – Chatham House) Since Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the narrative around Baltic security among alliance members has been almost triumphant. The Baltic Sea has been described as a ‘NATO lake’ and various Baltic countries have celebrated the increase in their security.
Belarus
(Grigory Ioffe – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusians find themselves torn between two conflicting national agendas—one upheld by the state apparatus and the other championed by the opposition, many of whom are either exiled or imprisoned. The leaders of both political camps are exacerbating Belarus’s polarized political environment, alienating Belarusians loyal to both political projects, including the Western-friendly one. A political entity in Belarus that would be capable of transcending differences in collective memory and geopolitical leanings to emphasize shared values will have the best chance of consolidating the Belarusian nation.
Belarusians Caught Between Competing Political Visions – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Tarik Solmaz – Lowy The Interpreter) Denny Roy’s recent article in The Interpreter provided a perceptive analysis arguing a full-scale China-Taiwan war was unlikely in the short term. Roy concluded that China has preferred to rely on grey-zone activities to achieve its strategic objectives over Taiwan. It’s a view that I agree with.
Three factors hardening China’s stance on Taiwan | Lowy Institute
Climate Action – Energy Transition
1 – (Maddie Stone – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) To build all of the solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and other technologies necessary to fight climate change, we’re going to need a lot more metals. Mining those metals from the Earth creates damage and pollution that threaten ecosystems and communities. But there’s another potential source of the copper, nickel, aluminum, and rare-earth minerals needed to stabilize the climate: the mountain of electronic waste humanity discards each year.
2 – (Andrea Willige – World Economic Forum) Factors including climate change, deforestation, overgrazing and unsustainable agricultural practices are increasingly turning our world’s drylands into deserts. Degradation of productive soil along with the loss of biodiversity, bodies of water and vegetation also impacts human life, leading to poverty, food and water scarcity and poor health. But 2024 could become a seminal year for the fight against desertification, with a series of events including the World Economic Forum’s Special Meeting and COP16 focused on tackling the issue.
What is desertification and why is it important to understand? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Emerging Technologies
(Simon Torkington – World Economic Forum) Quantum computing could easily decode today’s cybersecurity measures. Tech companies are building new protections to withstand quantum cyber attacks. The World Economic Forum has designed a governance and principles framework for quantum computers.
How tech firms are tackling the risks of quantum computing | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
European Union – India
(European Union Institute for Security Studies) The EU and India’s worldviews and normative red lines significantly impact how they cooperate. To move forward in their partnership, both actors must understand where each partner is coming from and more importantly, the place they seek to occupy in the shifting international order.
Global Economy
(Kate Whiting – World Economic Forum) The World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held their annual Spring Meetings from 15-20 April in Washington DC. The week saw the publication of key reports on global growth and financial stability as well as announcements on funding initiatives. The IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva will join leaders for the World Economic Forum’s Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy for Development from 28-29 April.
What just happened at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Global Military Spending
(SIPRI) Total global military expenditure reached $2443 billion in 2023, an increase of 6.8 per cent in real terms from 2022. This was the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009. The 10 largest spenders in 2023—led by the United States, China and Russia—all increased their military spending
Global military spending surges amid war, rising tensions and insecurity | SIPRI
India
(Debak Das – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) On March 11, 2024, the Indian government announced that it had successfully tested an Agni-V ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology. According to India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation, multiple reentry vehicles were tracked during the test. Discussions are now taking place as to what this new development means for India’s nuclear strategy and how it will impact India’s relations with China—the country against which this technology is most probably aimed at.
Indonesia – Timor-Leste
(Fidelis Leite Magalhães – Lowy The Interpreter) Prabowo Subianto’s recent election win has sparked varied reactions, and while some interpret it as a setback for democratic progress since the 1998 reformasi, I see it as an opportunity for fostering deeper reconciliation between Timor-Leste and Indonesia.
Middle East and the Gulf
(Raz Zimmt – Atlantic Council) Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel on April 14, in retaliation for an alleged Israeli airstrike in Syria, represented the most dangerous round of conflict between the two countries in decades. This attack involved more than 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
Myanmar
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The Myanmar army is experiencing a rapid rise in defections and military losses, posing questions about the continued viability of the junta’s grip on power.
The Bottom is Falling out for Myanmar’s Junta | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
NATO
(Ed Arnold – RUSI) On 3 April the very best of Alliance pomp and ceremony was on display at NATO headquarters for the 75th anniversary of the signing of the Washington Treaty. The celebrations are well-deserved but should be short-lived.
Poland
(Zuzanna Gwadera – IISS) The United States Department of State has approved a possible sale of up to 1,800 air-launched missiles to Poland, including the long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range (JASSM-ER), in a bid to bolster Poland’s stand-off capability.
Poland set to bolster its long-range strike capability (iiss.org)
Russia
1 – (Maria Snegovaya, Max Bergmann, Tina Dolbaia, Nick Fenton, Samuel Bendett – Center for Strategic & International Studies) A report examines Russia’s evolving defense industrial capabilities and limitations during the second year of the Russia-Ukraine war and analyzes how these changes have affected and will continue to affect battlefield outcomes in Ukraine.
Back in Stock? The State of Russia’s Defense Industry after Two Years of the War (csis.org)
2 – (Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) Germany detained two suspected Russian agents for allegedly planning to sabotage military facilities while Russian propagandists deny the existence of an espionage network. Moscow appears to increasingly consider the West as its primary military adversary, supported by Russian political analysts shifting their focus from political topics to military analytics. The Kremlin’s influence operations continue to spread across Europe, and some countries, including Czechia, are taking assertive action against Russian operatives.
Moscow Seemingly Escalates Confrontation With Europe – Jamestown
Senegal
(Mayecor Sar – Atlantic Council) On April 2, Bassirou Diomaye Faye was sworn in as Senegal’s fifth president, kicking off what some hope will be a transformative presidency.
Senegal’s new political landscape offers a new start for the West – Atlantic Council
USA
1 – (Wendy Edelberg, Noadia Steinmetz-Silber – Brookings) The last few years have been marked by an extraordinary increase in business formation. Demographic groups that have historically had relatively low levels of business ownership are experiencing rising levels of entrepreneurship, and persistent business ownership gaps are shrinking. Between 2019 and 2022, the share of Black and Hispanic families with ownership in employer businesses rose, while white families did not report a similar increase. The analysis also looks at business ownership by educational attainment and income and how gains in business ownership influence wealth building across groups
The changing demographics of business ownership | Brookings
2 – (Council on Foreign Relations) John Barrientos, a captain in the U.S. Navy and a visiting military fellow at CFR, and Kristen Thompson, a colonel in the U.S. Air Force and a visiting military fellow at CFR, sit down with James M. Lindsay to provide an inside view on how the U.S. military is adapting to the challenges it faces.
USA – ASEAN
(Council on Foreign Relations) In a webinar, panelists discuss the strategic opportunities and challenges of the U.S.-ASEAN partnership in addressing pressing regional and global issues, including trade, maritime security, human rights, climate, and technology.
War in Ukraine
1 – (Andrew A. Michta – Atlantic Council) Russia has launched its third major mobilization wave in anticipation of its upcoming spring/summer campaign to take more land in Ukraine. On March 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to begin the next conscription drive, setting the target at 150,000 new inductees slated for military service. This came after a decision in July of last year by the Russian Duma to raise the maximum age of conscription from twenty-seven to thirty, significantly increasing the pool of available recruits. Ukrainian estimates put the number of new soldiers that could be inducted in the third Russian mobilization drive at as many as three hundred thousand by June.
2 – (Tom Keatinge – RUSI) Two years on from the invasion of Ukraine, a paper explores the state of efforts to combat modern kleptocracy before February 2022 and assesses how the Kremlin’s war has catalysed a range of responses from Western allies.
3 – (Ali Alkis – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) It has been more than two years since Russia occupied the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine—Europe’s largest. For the first time in history, a war is taking place in a country with advanced nuclear facilities and infrastructure, demonstrating a new kind of nuclear safety and security risk. Over this period, the Zaporizhzhia plant has suffered multiple attacks to its buildings, external power lines, and main reservoir supplying its cooling water.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
