Geostrategic magazine (december 14, 2023)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

Daily from global think tanks

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

Artificial Intelligence

James S. Denford, Gregory S. Dawson, Kevin C. Desouza (Brookings) analyze the differences in the design, implementation and governance of artificial intelligence technologies between different countries. The authors note important differences in how Western nations and China approach AI. In the West, countries – with the United States leading the way – are largely focused on the dangers of artificial intelligence and are working to put in place adequate “guardrails” to ensure the technology is properly managed. In contrast, China focuses almost exclusively on research and development and devotes very little energy to limiting the possible negative outcomes of AI development. This creates a situation where China, already at the forefront of artificial intelligence, has the ability to further extend its lead

A cluster analysis of national AI strategies | Brookings

Bangladesh

Chietigj Bajpaee, Patrick Schröder (Chatham House) write about Bangladesh’s general elections, scheduled for 7 January. Controversy and violence are growing due to strong anti-government sentiment and complaints from the strategic textile sector. Thousands of opposition leaders were arrested following a large demonstration in October. Meanwhile, friction with the West is growing

Opposition and worker protests create an unstable setting for Bangladesh’s general election | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

China – India

Syed Akbaruddin, Indrani Bagchi, Tanvi Madan (Brookings) discuss how minilateral and multilateral organizations such as the United Nations, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Quad have become arenas of competition between India and China

India-China dynamics in multilateral and minilateral organizations | Brookings

Climate Action

1 – Experts at the Atlantic Council think tank write that COP28 ended with nearly two hundred countries agreeing to a “transition” away from fossil fuels. UN Executive Secretary for Climate Change Simon Stiell called the decision “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. But the text of the agreement was only one of many outcomes of the conference, including the activation of the loss and damage fund and the commitment to reduce methane emissions and triple renewable energy

The final report card for COP28

2 – World Resources Institute writes that COP28 climate negotiations concluded with delegates agreeing to ‘shift’ the world away from fossil fuels, launch the Loss and Damage Fund and establish a framework for the global adaptation goal

STATEMENT: Fossil Fuels Face a Reckoning at the COP28 Climate Summit

3 – Gabriela Vidad, Suzanne Ozment (World Resources Institute) write that, in Costa Rica, climate change is having consequences on the Reventazón basin. The basin is critical to providing 25% of the drinking water surrounding the capital San José, irrigating 85% of the nation’s crop production and generating 38% of its main energy source through hydroelectricity. But government officials now have a powerful tool to monitor and help combat natural causes threatening Costa Rica’s population and infrastructure: satellites

Satellite Technologies Help Nature-Based Solutions for Water Monitoring

4 – Ankita Gangotra, Willy Carlsen, Kevin Kennedy (World Resources Institute) write that policy proposals at the intersection of climate and trade are becoming increasingly popular around the world and in the United States. Such policies can serve multiple purposes, such as reducing emissions, preventing carbon leakage, stimulating domestic industries, and offshoring manufacturing jobs. 2023 saw the introduction of four bills in the United States Congress related to climate and trade

4 New Carbon Border Adjustment Bills in the US

5 – Zongyuan Zoe Liu (Council on Foreign Relations) writes that the COP28 summit in Dubai concluded with the first ever commitment to gradually reduce the use of fossil fuels. More than a hundred countries have committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. How significant is this?

Did the COP28 Summit Give a Boost to Renewable Energy Plans? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)

6 – Ruth Townend (Chatham House) writes that COP28 was seen as innovative by the UAE and criticized as insufficient by climate vulnerable groups such as the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS): the agreement is actually both. COP28 marked the first conference in which the abandonment of “fossil fuels” was included in the text of the final decision

COP28: What was achieved, and what needs to happen now | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

7 – Ana Yang, Roberto Waack (Chatham House) write that the COP28 presidency has placed food system transformation on the global climate change agenda. A new US-UAE fund, allocating $17 billion to support low-carbon food systems practices, and initiatives such as the Alliance of Champions for Food System Transformation (with Brazil as co-chair), are important signs that governments and non-state actors recognize the speed and scale needed to achieve climate and biodiversity goals. Over the next two years, Brazil will have a critical opportunity to lead this global transformation, through its presidency of the G20 in 2024 and the COP30 climate conference in 2025

Brazil has a unique opportunity to drive transformation of food systems | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Europe – China

Ilaria Mazzocco (Center for Strategic & International Studies) writes that the concentration of climate technology supply chains in China has raised economic and security concerns in Europe and could lead to increased trade measures to limit dependence on Chinese exports. The implementation of diversification and risk reduction policies will require a careful evaluation of the real economic and safety difficulties, which vary depending on technologies such as solar photovoltaic and lithium ion batteries. Policymakers should closely monitor trends in existing and emerging technologies to manage risks without slowing the energy transition.

Balancing Act: Managing European Dependencies on China for Climate Technologies (csis.org)

Poland

Jakub Bornio (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that, on December 11, the Sejm (lower house of the Polish parliament) appointed Donald Tusk as the new Prime Minister, who returns to Polish politics after having been Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014 before resigning to become President of the European Council. The new government intends to address a number of immediate issues, including the direction of the country’s foreign policy. On December 12, Tusk announced his government’s intention to “call for the full mobilization” of the West in supporting Ukraine as the war enters a critical phase

Poland’s New Government Looks to Adapt Foreign Policy Approach – Jamestown

Southeast Asia

Sapna Chadha (World Economic Forum) writes that Southeast Asia’s digital economy is constantly growing. As highlighted in the e-Conomy SEA 2023 report, the region has remained relatively resilient compared to other parts of the world. But more work needs to be done to help Southeast Asia’s digital economy reach a gross value of $1 trillion by 2030

How Southeast Asia can become a $1 trillion digital economy

Taiwan – China

Jude Blanchette, Gerard DiPippo, Christopher B. Johnstone (Center for Strategic & International Studies) write that, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s shows of force against Taiwan starting in 2022, Western governments and corporate boards have increasingly debated the likelihood, timing, and methods of a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China

Scared Strait: Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of a Taiwan Crisis (csis.org)

Ukraine – NATO

Steven Pifer (Brookings) writes that the United States views a stable and secure Europe as a vital national interest: it is increasingly clear that this will not be possible without a stable and secure Ukraine. Taking into account a very complex situation, and the desire to avoid a controversial discussion on Ukraine ahead of the 2024 NATO summit in Washington, the United States and its allies should prepare the ground now so that next July they can announce the accession with Ukraine. The aim of these talks, conducted within the framework of the NATO-Ukraine Council, would be to work towards a formal invitation to Kiev to join as soon as possible

For a secure and stable Europe, put Ukraine on a definitive path to NATO

Ukraine – USA

Frederick Kempe (Atlantic Council) writes about the visit of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to the front line that will really decide the results of the war against Russia: Washington

Zelenskyy visits the front line that could decide his country’s war

USA

1 – Mark Muro, Yang You (Brookings) write that, for the first time in more than a decade, digital activity appears to be spreading. Specifically, the list of metro areas that are increasing their share of the nation’s tech sector is now dominated by a group of ‘non-superstar’ cities

Tech jobs are finally spreading out, spurred by private investment and federal initiatives

2 – Manann Donoghoe, Justin Lall, Andre M Perry (Brookings) write about the differences in the US between white and black voters in terms of their perception of the importance of climate policies

Black voters are more concerned about climate change than the national average, with implications for policy and messaging | Brookings

USA – Latin America & Carribean – China

Ryan C. Berg, Henry Ziemer (Center for Strategic & International Studies) write that while the US is the largest single investor in the Latin America and Caribbean region, it is responsible for 38% of foreign direct investment in 2022, over 20 Over the years, China has gone from a marginal player in the region to a dominant force. In 2021, China was the region’s second-largest trading partner as a whole, capturing 21% of total exports and responsible for nearly 15% of the region’s imports. For major hemisphere economies such as Brazil, Chile and Ecuador, China has already overtaken the United States. In some key sectors, notably infrastructure, telecommunications and energy production, Beijing far outperforms Washington. Chinese state-owned and private companies are deeply rooted throughout the region

The Outcompete World: Revisiting U.S. Economic Priorities for Competition with China in Latin America and the Caribbean (csis.org)

The Global Eye