Geostrategic magazine (december 18, 2023)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

Daily from global think tanks

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

2024

Experts from the Observer Research Foundation think tank analyze 2024. In a year where risk is the new normal and war the new grammar of discourse, India’s rise as a strategic and economic hub could provide a counterweight to peace and a certain balance to democracy

What to expect in 2024 (orfonline.org)

Australia

Stephan Fruehling, Graeme Dunk (ASPI The Strategist) write that Australia faces a complex and deteriorating geostrategic environment and that the recent defense strategic review found the military force structure is not fit for purpose

Time for a rethink of Australia’s approach to defence industry | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Central Asia

Michael Rossi (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that Central Asia is growing as a strategic region globally. The past year, with the war in Ukraine and the confrontation between Russia and the West, has reshaped the political landscape of Eurasia and has also highlighted the increasingly critical role of Central Asia in the complex balance of power between East and West

How Central Asia became a key region for the West | Lowy Institute

Indonesia

Ward Berenschot (East Asia Forum) writes that, on the occasion of the next presidential elections in Indonesia, the Constitutional Court, led by the brother-in-law of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, ruled that Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of the current President, could run for office vice presidency. Candidate Prabowo Subianto has enlisted Gibran as his vice presidential candidate, a move that may have increased his lead in the polls over two rival candidates Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. This decision also signaled that Jokowi no longer supports Ganjar, a candidate of his own party

Indonesia’s increasingly opposition-less democracy | East Asia Forum

Myanmar

Andrew Selth (East Asia Forum) writes that, in late October, an alliance of three ethnic armed organizations launched a major offensive against Myanmar’s military regime in the north of the country. Soon after, other groups took advantage of the regime’s problems by opening new fronts in western, eastern and southern Myanmar. To the surprise of many, the junta’s armed forces (Tatmadaw) have suffered a series of serious defeats. Important trade and communication links with China and India have been severed

It is too early to write off Myanmar’s junta | East Asia Forum

Near East

1 – Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Arkady Mil-Man (INSS) write that, since October 7, Moscow has adopted a clearly pro-Hamas line, and President Putin has tied the fate of Russia to that of the Palestinian people. According to Putin, the world is moving from a unipolar to a multipolar order. In this approach, Israel belongs to the West and, as such, is part of the pole hostile to Russia. Against the backdrop of growing tensions between Russia and the United States, Israel must understand the beliefs that shape Russian policy, which seeks to violate the existing world order. Israel must also recognize the critical role Russia assigns to the Muslim world in the new world order it seeks to establish

Russia’s “New World Order” and the Israel-Hamas War | INSS

2 – Ofer Shelah (INSS) writes that it is necessary to reiterate what was already the case before the start of the ground operation in the Gaza Strip: this operation, alone, will not achieve the objectives of the war

The Ground Operation Alone will not Achieve the War’s Goals: What Should Israel Do? | INSS

3 – Raz Zimmt (INSS) writes that, more than 70 days after the fighting broke out in Gaza, senior Iranian officials continue to express confidence in the victory of Hamas and the Palestinians

Iranian Complacency: Tehran Believes that Israel Does Not Endanger the “Axis of Resistance” | INSS

4 – Orna Mizrahi (INSS) writes that the Lebanese Parliament has approved a one-year extension of the mandate of the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Joseph Aoun, who was supposed to resign on January 10, 2024. The extension is part of the decision to extend the terms of all senior army commanders, in the context of the fighting on the border between Lebanon and Israel

Extending the Tenure of the Commander of Lebanon’s Armed Forces: An Unusual Move with Significance for Israel | INSS

North Korea

Gabriela Bernal (East Asia Forum) writes that North Korea’s strategic direction has seen: more missile tests; rapid progress in relations with Russia and China; no diplomatic progress with the United States and South Korea

Pyongyang’s pivot back to military tensions and Cold War alliances | East Asia Forum

Sri Lanka

Ganeshan Wignaraja (East Asia Forum) writes that Sri Lanka’s economy showed signs of stabilization in 2023, following the worst economic and political crisis since its independence in 1948. The notable change in 2023 can be traced to the decisive policies of the new President Ranil Wickremasinghe’s government, formed in July 2022, after mass protests forced then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign

Political risks loom over Sri Lanka’s economic stabilisation | East Asia Forum

Ukraine

Nikola Mikovic (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that if Kiev does not continue to receive military and financial aid from the United States and its Western allies in 2024, it could not only lose more territory to Russia, but also face an internal political crisis

Ukraine’s game of thrones | Lowy Institute

The Global Eye

The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

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