LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Argentina
Juan Pablo Toro (RUSI) writes that the program of the new Argentine president Javier Milei marks a significant turning point compared to the country’s previous approach to authoritarian regimes and protectionist policies
ASEAN – Myanmar
William J Jones, Douglas Rhein (East Asia Forum) write that ASEAN member States are increasingly unable to find common ground on regional security issues. The situation in Myanmar threatens regional security and the credibility of ASEAN
ASEAN’s credibility and centrality on the line amid crisis in Myanmar | East Asia Forum
Bangladesh
Jyoti Rahman (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that, on January 7, Bangladeshis will vote to choose 300 MPs and the next prime minister. According to analyses, this will be a victory for Sheikh Hasina, in power since 2009. The climate in the country is very tense and the elections could be followed by greater instability
Bangladesh: An election like no other | Lowy Institute
Central Asia
Richard Pomfret (East Asia Forum) writes that, in 2023, the leaders of Central Asian countries have shown more willing to institutionalize cooperation through annual summits and unified approaches towards third countries. Since 2017, the five Central Asian leaders have met at summits in Almaty (Kazakhstan, 2018), Tashkent (Uzbekistan, 2019), Awaza, Turkmenistan (2021) and Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan (2022). Azerbaijani President Aliyev also attended the September 2023 summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. The post-summit briefing emphasized that “the main task is to develop cooperation in the trade and economic field and create favorable conditions for trade and investment”
Central Asia’s gradual economic repositioning | East Asia Forum
China
1 – Guangwei Li (East Asia Forum) writes that China’s industrial policy has attracted global attention. While developed countries tend to perceive China’s industrial policies as a threat to their companies’ competitive position, many developing countries see China’s policy as a model for economic success
Winners and losers in China’s industrial policy | East Asia Forum
2 – Willem Thorbecke (East Asia Forum) writes that, in 1995, the value of China’s total exports amounted to $224 billion (textiles 30%; electronics 14%; machinery 10%). In 2021, China’s total exports were $3.7 trillion (textiles 13%; electronics 26%; machinery 19%). China’s efficiency in producing technologically sophisticated products has further accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic
Exchange rates exert limited influence on China’s exports | East Asia Forum
Climate Action
1 – Sanjeev Ahluwalia (Observer Research Foundation) writes that the COP28 final document calls for “the abandonment of fossil fuels in energy systems” by 2050. The critical point remains the affordability of abandoning existing fossil fuel resources and investment in clean energy alternatives still to mature and expand
Beyond the rhetoric at Dubai COP28 (orfonline.org)
2 – Roman Paul Czebiniak, Paige Langer, Edward Leo Davey, Cristiane (Krika) Fontes (World Resources Institute) write that, at COP28 in Dubai, important actions were made for forests, ranging from increased commitments to ending deforestation in the tropics up to new financial support for forestry action in developing countries
At COP28, Forests and Nature Saw Important Wins | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
India
1 – Sameer Patil (Observer Research Foundation) writes that the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Hamas threatens the fragile stability of West Asia. Beyond the geopolitical implications, there is the threat of terrorist violence and radicalization as a result of this conflict. There has been a perceptible pro-Hamas sentiment in many countries. This has acted as a stimulus for pan-Islamic terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State, as well as other regional terrorist organizations. Even in South Asia, terrorist organizations and their sympathizers are exploiting what is happening in West Asia to spur radicalization
Impact of Israel-Hamas conflict on terrorist radicalisation in India (orfonline.org)
2 – S P Sharma (Vivekananda International Foundation) writes that the Indian stock market has seen a notable increase in market capitalization from $1.1 trillion in December 2013 to $4 trillion in December 2023. The economy is expected to grow to to reach sizes exceeding $4 trillion in fiscal year 2024–25 and $5 trillion in fiscal year 2026–27. By 2030, India will be a $7 trillion economy, ranking as the second largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region and the third largest in the world economy
3 – Eknath Sambhaji Shinde (World Economic Forum) writes that global agricultural production and food security could increase by 20-30% if women had access to land, technology and financial services in rural areas. Maharashtra state MAVIM is collaborating with the Forum to reduce the digital divide by investing in women farmers’ access to digital agriculture. MAVIM’s inclusive agritech project will serve as a beacon for others aiming to improve the prosperity and well-being of women farmers.
Leveraging tech for India’s women farmers in Maharashtra | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Indian Ocean
Harsh V. Pant, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy (Observer Research Foundation) write that, in early December, India’s National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, took part in the sixth NSA meeting of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC). The meeting reviewed the developments and progress made by the CSC over the past year and agreed on a roadmap to the year 2024 to promote a safe and stable Indian Ocean
The evolving role of the Colombo Security Conclave (orfonline.org)
Near East
1 – Raphael S. Cohen (RAND Corporation) writes that, seeing the images coming out of Gaza, it is no wonder that 153 of the 193 states of the United Nations General Assembly and two-thirds of Americans support a ceasefire. Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health reports that more than 20,000 Palestinians, many of them civilians, have died so far, and the numbers are rising. By the end of November, around 60% of Gaza’s homes had been damaged or destroyed. Fuel, medicine and food are in short supply. Given all this, who wouldn’t want such devastation to end?
The Trouble with a Cease-Fire | RAND
2 – Brian Michael Jenkins (RAND Corporation) proposes, looking at the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and the fate of the hostages, five possible scenarios
Five Potential Next Steps for the Hostage Situation in Gaza | RAND
Perspectives
1 – Velina Tchakarova (Observer Research Foundation) writes that global geopolitics is at a crucial moment. The escalation of armed conflicts is widespread across the world, with significant outbreaks present impacting international relations on every continent. Two major conflicts will further dominate the landscape: the ongoing war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia, and the Israel-Hamas clash in the Middle East. While the end of these conflicts seems far away, signs are emerging of potential diplomatic negotiations and the first ceasefire talks in 2024
Shifting sands: Navigating the new geopolitical landscape in 2024 (orfonline.org)
2 – From generative artificial intelligence, to economic uncertainty to the energy transition, a review of the reports and white papers published in 2023 by the World Economic Forum to understand the year that is ending and look at the prospects for 2024
USA
Thomas Pepinsky (East Asia Forum) writes that, in view of the American presidential elections, former president Donald Trump will most likely still be the candidate of the Republican Party. Incumbent President Joe Biden will run for re-election from the Democratic Party. The 2024 presidential campaign comes at a time of uncertainty in international politics (the United States and China are seeking a new position; Israel continues its invasion of Gaza; Ukraine continues its armed resistance against Moscow’s invasion; the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific is changing, with new initiatives such as AUKUS and Quad bringing Australia closer to the United States as a central player in Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy)
The return of US isolationism | East Asia Forum
USA – Papua New Guinea
Patrick Kaiku, Faith Hope Boie (Lowy The Interpreter) write that the defense cooperation agreement, signed between Papua New Guinea and the United States in May 2023, represents the most tangible example of Washington’s renewed commitment to PNG. The United States can consider the agreement from a geostrategic perspective, especially after the 2022 pact signed between China and the Solomon Islands. For PNG, the agreement allows it to work with a proven military and this is necessary to address long-standing issues relating to the morale and capabilities of the PNG Defense Force
Why did PNG sign a Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US? | Lowy Institute
Nuovo umanesimo (Marco Emanuele)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
