LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
IA sovrane. Ogni Paese deve pensarci, e in fretta, dice il Ceo di Nvidia (Marzia Giglioli)
La democrazia muore in difesa / Democracy dies in defense (Marco Emanuele)
L’onnipotenza che uccide / The omnipotence that kills (Marco Emanuele)
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Artificial Intelligence – (Tom Wheeler – Brookings) As AI has continued to capture the public imagination, prominent developers, such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, have called for the creation of a regulatory regime in the form of a new AI licensing agency. Licensing AI promises to be impractical and anti-competitive, and it is not the answer for AI regulation. However, the licensing proposal does suggest some related answers: There must be technical and behavioral standards for the development and operation of AI tools, and there must be a dedicated regulator to develop and enforce those standards.
Artificial Intelligence – (Daniel Zimmer, Johanna Rodehau-Noack – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Last May, hundreds of leading figures in AI research and development signed a one-sentence statement declaring that “mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” While ongoing advances in AI clearly demand urgent policy responses, recent attempts to equate AI with the sudden and extreme immediate effects of launching nuclear weapons rest on a misleadingly simple analogy—one that dates back to the early days of the Cold War and ignores important later developments in how nuclear threats are understood. Instead of an all-or-nothing thermonuclear war analogy, a more productive way to approach AI is as a disruption to global systems that more closely resembles the uncertain and complex cascades of a nuclear winter.
Artificial Intelligence – (Abhishek Khajuria – Observer Research Foundation) On 9 December 2023, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union arrived at an agreement on the European Union Artificial Intelligence Act (EU AI Act). While the final draft is yet to be published, the broad contours have been set for what could prove to be a landmark in the history of AI regulation. With this, the EU has become one of the first AI regulators in the world.
Data – (Robert Fay, Keldon Bester – CIGI) Data affects every aspect of people’s lives, from the jobs they do to the products and services they use. Society cannot function without it. Yet valuing data is an ongoing topic of debate and discussion. The International Association for Research in Income and Wealth and the Centre for International Governance Innovation hosted a conference on the valuation of data on November 2–3, 2023. Following a call for papers, researchers and speakers from around the world were invited to present their findings on the opportunities and challenges presented by the valuation of data and its role in the global economy. A total of 19 papers were presented; this conference report is a summary of the main points that were raised and the discussions that followed.
China – France
(Varuna Shankar – Vivekananda International Foundation) This year, 2024, marks six decades of the diplomatic relationship between China and France. Chinese President Xi Jingping announced breaking new grounds to further strengthen their bilateral ties. He stated that this was an opportunity to uphold fundamental principles, break new ground, build on past achievements, open up a new future, and make China-France’s comprehensive strategic partnership more solid and dynamic.
1 – (Nilanjan Ghosh, Ambar Kumar Ghosh – Observer Research Foundation) Despite the call for a global paradigm shift in water governance—from the traditional reductionist engineering approach to the more holistic integrated river basin governance framework—a change is not yet perceptible in India’s water governance architecture. The hesitation to change has led to ecological problems and conflicts at various levels. This paper identifies the knowledge gaps that inhibit the paradigm shift and explores the lacunae in the existing institutional mechanisms and statutes. It attempts to chart a path to combat the emerging challenges in water governance in India by identifying the broad contours of a new national water policy.
2 – (Deepti Talpade, Lubaina Rangwala – Observer Research Foundation) There are increasing social, economic, and political inequalities in Indian cities which lead to underserved populations getting pushed to city peripheries in environmentally degraded or hazardous areas. Multiple studies have proven that these areas are most vulnerable to climate disasters.
India – European Union – Indo Pacific
(Swati Prabhu – Observer Research Foundation) Despite being placed at different tangents of development, both India and the European Union (EU) can effectively address the persistent sustainability challenges and potentially rebalance the global order in the post-2030 world. This policy brief makes a case for a joint India-EU development partnership, in the SIDS to address the sustainability issues- particularly for building capacities in climate resilience, renewable energy and infrastructural connectivity. Combining the best features of the European development policy i.e., standards, norms and finance with India’s proven prowess in capacity-building, knowledge sharing and technical assistance can possibly help in finding practical solutions to the sustainability challenges of the Indo-Pacific.
India – United Arab Emirates
(Samir Saran – Observer Research Foundation) Before the trip of Narendra Modi in the Emirates, no Indian PM had set foot in the country for over three decades. While numbers are often inconsequential, sometimes they do matter. As the B-school adage goes: If you can’t count it, it doesn’t count. Seven prime ministerial visits paint a picture. It signifies a change in the relationship and growing appreciation of each other’s importance. What India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have built is a special affinity. It reflects a new reality, one where the India-UAE bond is no longer voluntary but mandatory, not a choice but an instinct. PM Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan have undertaken a systematic overhaul.
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The February 14 election marks a potential turning point in Southeast Asia’s most powerful state, likely determining its future relations with China and the United States, and the fate of the country’s own democracy.
JEF – NATO
(RUSI) Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) could become a powerful mechanism to deliver this ambition through a ‘JEF Digital’ initiative, which brings member countries’ research, innovation and industries together for the purpose of building and defending more resilient military-civilian systems of cooperation, driving standardisation, and furthering interoperability across NATO’s northern flank and the Alliance as a whole.
(Rajaram Panda – Vivekananda International Foundation) Pyongyang seems determined to keep tensions in the Korean Peninsula alive. In a provocative start to 2024, it launched new cruise missile test for submarine. By doing this, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un flaunted his growing nuclear arsenal, thereby threatening a nuclear conflict with Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.
1 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Experts discuss the regional escalation of the Israel-Hamas war, developments in flashpoints including in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, attacks on U.S. forces and the consequences for U.S. strategy in the Middle East.
2 – (Daniel R DePetris – RUSI) With Israel and Hizbullah engaging in months of tit-for-tat strikes across the Lebanese border, the dangers of a full-scale conflict are clear. But there are reasons for both parties to refrain from escalating further.
1 – (Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) The dust has yet to settle on Pakistan’s election. The official results show that independent candidates aligned to the PTI – the party of Imran Khan – have performed better than anticipated despite Khan’s arrest and conviction. This belies the initial belief that the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) – the party of the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shehbaz) – would lead the next government.
2 – (Shivam Shekhawat – Observer Research Foundation) For the past few years, Pakistan has been bogged by multiple self-inflicted crises—political, economic, and security. Since the no-confidence motion against Khan in April 2022, and the resultant instability, there was an expectation across all quarters that holding a general election will stabilise the country. Finally, on 8 February 2024, the Pakistani electorate turned out in large numbers to choose a new government. The results are out and despite expectations otherwise, no single party has received the total majority.
1 – (Victor Gilinsky – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) Politico reports that congressional promoters of “advanced” nuclear plants are blaming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as the main obstacle to their deployment. The report singles out Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Joe Manchin (D-WV) and cites his and his colleagues blocking the reappointment to the commission of Jeff Baran, who tended to lean toward safety more than his fellow commissioners, as the start of a campaign to bring the agency to heel. Such crude bullying of a safety agency, especially by people who don’t understand what it involves, is so obviously improper as not to need further comment. But there is more to the story.
2 – (Glenn S. Gerstell – Lawfare) Only two months remain before the most important operational statute in the national security area expires. Yet Congress struggles to agree on the terms of any extension.
3 – (Jack Goldsmith – Lawfare) President Donald Trump relentlessly disregarded the post-Watergate norm that a president should not comment on pending Justice Department investigations, especially ones that concern the president, senior executive branch officials, and political rivals. President Biden pledged to respect and restore the norm. But he has not done so. To the contrary, he has often violated it—more so than any other president, save, of course, for the incomparable Trump. And Biden and his aides have, more broadly, contributed to the perceived politicization of the Justice Department.
4 – (Bryant Harris – Defense News) The Senate on Tuesday passed the president’s $95 billion foreign aid spending request for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan following an all-night session, wrapping up nearly a week of debate on the bill. The legislation, which passed in the chamber 70-29, faces an uphill battle in the House amid opposition from former President Donald Trump, the leading candidate in the Republican presidential primary. House Republicans are increasingly resistant to additional assistance for Ukraine — and foreign aid more generally.
USA – China
1 – (Audrey Decker – Defense One) The U.S. Air Force is changing the way it deploys forces as part of a sweeping overhaul to make the service leaner and prepare for a fight against China.
2 – (Anna Puglisi – CSET) As U.S. policymakers increasingly discuss biotechnology—and specifically genomics—as a national security issue, the challenge of how to protect and promote this technology has come to the fore. However, given that some of these tools are early in development, and often include services that help research, existing technology protection tools are not designed for this challenge. Given the complexity, current regulations will not be enough. The United States will need a mix of policies that include funding and support for U.S. companies, as well as research infrastructure, in addition to traditional mitigation strategies.
USA – Philippines – Japan
(Gregory B. Poling and Japhet Quitzon – CSIS) China’s aggression in the South China Sea and increasingly aggressive posture toward Taiwan continue to pose a threat to the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region. Recognizing the threat posed by Chinese revanchism, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States are working to deepen and better network their alliances. How can these partners better coordinate on a range of issues, including Beijing’s illegal behavior in the East and South China Seas and possible Taiwan contingencies? It is imperative that the three partners deepen strategic, military, and economic coordination to better understand and prepare for the roles each might play in a crisis.
War in Ukraine
1 – (Yohann Michel, Michael Gjerstad – IISS) Despite intense armoured vehicle losses since Russia launched its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine about two years ago, there are few signs they will cause an end to the fighting anytime soon. The IISS will publish its assessment of Russian equipment losses on 13 February with the release of The Military Balance 2024. The losses are estimated to include more than 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the past year alone and close to 8,800 since February 2022.
2 – (Orysia Lutsevych – Chatham House) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is rapidly approaching its second anniversary – and is not going according to plan for either side. In a major reset that President Zelenskyy believes can change the trajectory of the conflict, he has sacked his commander-in-chief, General Valeriy Zaluzhny. After a series of disagreements, Zelenskyy has called for a ‘united approach across the whole frontline and a new vision for the war, mobilization and recruitment’.
3 – (Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds – RUSI) Defeating Russia’s attempt to subjugate Ukraine must be based upon an understanding of what Russia is trying to achieve, how it is intending to achieve its objectives, and its capacity to implement this plan. The Russian theory of victory has been through various iterations over the course of the war, but Moscow now has a clear plan for how it intends to proceed. This article seeks to outline Russia’s intent in order to provide a basis for planning how its plan can be disrupted. Outlining Russian intent and capacity does not represent an assessment as to the likelihood of it succeeding.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)