LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Il ‘braccio di ferro’ tra il New York Times e ChatGPT (Marzia Giglioli)
Vocazione alla responsabilità / Vocation for responsibility (Marco Emanuele)
Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Serve una nuova narrazione (Marzia Giglioli)
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
(Kasirim Nwuke – Brookings) In the Political Declaration adopted in the leadup to the 2023 United Nations General Assembly Summit (UNGAS) on the United Nations Agenda 2030 and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), United Nations (U.N.) member states declared that “the achievement of the SDGs is in peril” and are committed “to take the actions necessary to reverse declines and accelerate progress … and implement the SDGs.” Family-owned businesses, defined here, as “companies where members of the same family, or related family branches, hold a majority interest … and exerts a dominant influence on the strategic direction of the firm through ownership, governance, management and vision” can play a crucial role in accelerating progress in Africa towards achieving the SDGs.
ASEAN – Australia – Malaysia – Singapore
(Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman – Lowy The Interpreter) The ASEAN-Australia Special Commemorative Summit in Melbourne next month marks 50 years of dialogue relations and follows the Sydney meeting in March 2018 where leaders reaffirmed their commitment to ASEAN centrality and regional cooperation. The upcoming talks will allow Australia and ASEAN to review their achievements since 2018, including with Singapore and Malaysia, which share longstanding relations with Australia since before the birth of ASEAN in 1967 spanning security, economics and socio-cultural domains.
(Raelene Lockhorst, Nicholas Meatheringham – ASPI The Strategist) Given climate change is a national security issue, it stands to reason that Defence has a role in mitigating climate change by reducing its own emissions. Globally, there is increasing awareness of the contributions of national defence to global greenhouse emissions. One widely cited estimate suggests militaries are responsible for around 5% of global emissions and the International Military Council on Climate and Security has acknowledged that defence forces are the ‘largest single institutional consumer of hydrocarbons in the world’. As a founding member of the global Net-Zero Government Initiative (NZGI), Australia has made global commitments to achieve net zero in government operations by 2030.
Australia – Papua New Guinea
(Sarah Morley – Lowy The Interpreter) Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape will address the Australian parliament this Thursday, just weeks after Australia and PNG signed a legally-binding Bilateral Security Agreement wherein the Australian government announced its commitment to spending $200 million in support of PNG’s internal security.
China – Afghanistan
(Adam Leslie – ASPI The Strategist) On 30 January, 2024, President Xi Jinping provided further evidence that China formally recognises the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. This sets a dangerous international precedent and is a morally moribund approach to international relations which puts selfish resource security concerns firmly ahead of human rights and global wellbeing as China’s primary philosophical approach to international affairs.
China – Papua New Guinea
(Denghua Zhang, Bernard Yegiora – Lowy The Interpreter) Last month, China signed a significant deal with Papua New Guinea, a downstream processing agreement to manufacture products using locally sourced nickel and cobalt. With this agreement, China is signalling a preparedness to help PNG industrialise. And it is exactly the kind of development pursued by PNG Prime Minister James Marape under his slogan to make the country the “Richest Black Christian Nation”.
Georgia – China
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Irakli Kobakhidze has been nominated for the position of Prime Minister of Georgia, succeeding Irakli Garibashvili. Influential Georgian Dream Party founder Bidzina Ivanishvili’s involvement has been cited despite denials, hinting at continued party control over government appointments. The Georgian public and opposition have criticized Kobakhidze for aligning with Moscow’s preferences and opposing so-called Western interference. Kobakhidze emphasizes strategic partnership with China alongside Euro-Atlantic integration. He justifies this dual approach by praising China’s economic prowess and stability, raising concerns about Georgia’s turn towards Europe.
(Parker Novak – Atlantic Council) In 2024, elections are everywhere all at once. Dozens of countries, stretching from Mexico to the Solomon Islands, are holding crucial contests, including the world’s three largest democracies, India, Indonesia, and the United States. Between rising authoritarianism, growing institutional mistrust, and rapid spread of artificial intelligence, these elections are set to present a cumulative stress test on democracy worldwide. Already the fourth-largest country by population, Indonesia is projected to become the world’s sixth-largest economy by 2027 and an increasingly important geopolitical player to match its size and wealth. Thus, the outcomes of its February 14 presidential and legislative contests carry far-reaching implications for the future not only of the country host to the world’s largest Muslim population, but also of Southeast Asia and the world.
(Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh Robin Wright and James M. Lindsay discuss the ramifications of U.S. retaliation against Iranian-backed militias after the killing of three U.S. service members in Jordan on January 28.
1 – (Brookings) Madiha Afzal discusses the elections in Pakistan. Voters in the world’s fifth most populous nation go to the polls to elect representatives to Pakistan’s parliament, and from that, the next prime minister.
2 – (Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) Although the lead-up to Pakistan’s election has been relatively muted, public discontent remains high.
(Vanda Felbab-Brown, Diana Paz García – Brookings) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly affected regional illicit economies and criminal networks, but the basic power balance between the Russian state and organized criminal groups has not changed. Due to its direct involvement in illicit economies, the Russian state has remained in a dominant position vis-à-vis criminal groups even as Western sanctions have prompted the emergence of new trafficking routes to supply the industrial and consumer goods that are subject to Western sanctions. This balance of power between the state and crime is likely to continue in 2024, even as Russian citizens’ security starts deteriorating.
Russia – South Asia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is looking to South Asia as a source of new immigrants to compensate for the demographic decline of the Russian population and declining numbers of migrant workers from Central Asia. Such a policy faces enormous obstacles given both the negative attitudes of the Russian population toward immigrants and the Kremlin’s desire to compel immigrants to serve in its military. Unless it succeeds, the Kremlin may not have the manpower to implement its repressive policies at home and continue its aggression abroad.
Russia – Ukraine
1 – (Andrew Maher – ASPI The Strategist) In the coming weeks, a flood of analysis can be expected marking the end of the second year of war in Ukraine. In fact, the war began 10 years ago when Russia seized Crimea in February 2014.
2 – (Boris Bondarev – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow’s signaling of a willingness for peace negotiations should be considered as a tactical maneuver aimed at splitting the Western public opinion and undermining its resolve to help Ukraine. Putin’s tactical aim is to torpedo Western aid to Ukraine until a potential Trump presidency, because the Kremlin believes former US President Donald Trump may give up on Ukraine and disrupt NATO. Signs for peace from Putin cannot be trusted for his words but rather must be backed up by his actions.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)