Per una bussola geostrategica – For a geostrategic compass – Pour une boussole géostratégique
Sostenibilità nella Pace (di Marco Emanuele)
Ieri 9 giugno, a Roma presso l’auditorium dell’Ara Pacis, un ‘parterre de roi’ ha posto in essere una riflessione di altissimo profilo sulla pace oggi a partire dal discorso del Presidente Kennedy del 1963 all’American University. Sono intervenuti Jeffrey Sachs, Umberto Vattani, Romano Prodi e Alberto Melloni, tra gli altri.
Se i tempi sono cambiati, e gli attori geostrategici si sono moltiplicati rispetto a 60 anni fa, rendendo molto più fluido il panorama internazionale, per capire l’oggi – e la tragicità del ritorno della guerra in Europa – occorre raccogliere il testimone di visionari che, in un tempo che ci sembra infinitamente lontano, sono preziosissimi per leggere politicamente il mondo che viviamo.
Vattani, in particolare, ha ricostruito con grande precisione il periodo della fine dell’Unione Sovietica e tutti i nodi irrisolti che ci hanno portato fino a oggi, dentro una guerra di aggressione che non sembra vedere una soluzione e rispetto alla quale, come fece la Chiesa di Giovanni XXIII nelle crisi degli anni ’60 in un contesto internazionale certamente difficoltoso, la Chiesa di Francesco oggi cerca di operare dentro una situazione ben più articolata rispetto a quella di allora. Non a caso, Prodi ha evocato la terza guerra mondiale a pezzi.
Al di là di come la si pensi rispetto alla guerra, Sachs ha ricordato che parlare di sostenibilità è possibile solo in un clima di pace. Per chi, come noi, ha a cuore il tema della sostenibilità sistemica, il tema della pace assume un valore particolare: non un pacifismo sterile ma un grande investimento in un processo di costruzione storica responsabile, liberante, includente. Esattamente il contrario di ciò che accade oggi, dove la politica che conosciamo è ancorata al presente imminente, dove la linearità domina e dove prevale ancora il ‘costituito’. Serve una trasformazione radicale e profonda dei nostri paradigmi perché il cambio di era, al di là delle nostre convinzioni, è già in atto.
Sustainability in Peace (by Marco Emanuele)
Yesterday 9 June, in Rome at the Ara Pacis auditorium, a ‘parterre de roi’ set up a high-profile reflection on peace today starting from President Kennedy’s 1963 speech at the American University. Speakers included Jeffrey Sachs, Umberto Vattani, Romano Prodi and Alberto Melloni, among others.
If times have changed, and geostrategic actors have multiplied compared to 60 years ago, making the international landscape much more fluid, in order to understand today – and the tragic nature of the return of war in Europe – it is necessary to pick up the baton of visionaries who, in a time that seems infinitely distant to us, are invaluable for reading the world we live in politically.
Vattani, in particular, has reconstructed with great precision the period of the end of the Soviet Union and all the unresolved knots that have brought us up to today, within a war of aggression that does not seem to see a solution and with respect to which, as the Church of John XXIII did in the crises of the 1960s in a certainly difficult international context, the Church of Francis today seeks to operate within a much more articulated situation than that of then. It is no coincidence that Prodi evoked the third world war in pieces.
Regardless of how one feels about war, Sachs reminded us that talking about sustainability is only possible in a climate of peace. For those who, like us, care about systemic sustainability, the theme of peace takes on a particular value: not sterile pacifism but a major investment in a responsible, liberating, inclusive process of historical construction. Exactly the opposite of what is happening today, where politics as we know it is anchored to the imminent present, where linearity dominates and where the ‘established’ still prevails. We need a radical and profound transformation of our paradigms because the change of era, beyond our convictions, is already underway.
La durabilité dans la paix (par Marco Emanuele)
Hier 9 juin, à Rome, à l’auditorium Ara Pacis, un ‘parterre de roi’ a organisé une réflexion de haut niveau sur la paix aujourd’hui, à partir du discours prononcé en 1963 par le président Kennedy à l’American University. Jeffrey Sachs, Umberto Vattani, Romano Prodi et Alberto Melloni, entre autres, ont pris la parole.
Si les temps ont changé, si les acteurs géostratégiques se sont multipliés par rapport à il y a 60 ans, rendant le paysage international beaucoup plus fluide, pour comprendre aujourd’hui – et la nature tragique du retour de la guerre en Europe – il est nécessaire de reprendre le flambeau des visionnaires qui, à une époque qui nous semble infiniment lointaine, sont d’une valeur inestimable pour lire le monde dans lequel nous vivons sur le plan politique.
Vattani, en particulier, a reconstruit avec une grande précision la période de la fin de l’Union soviétique et tous les nœuds non résolus qui nous ont amenés jusqu’à aujourd’hui, dans le cadre d’une guerre d’agression qui ne semble pas avoir de solution et par rapport à laquelle, comme l’Église de Jean XXIII l’a fait dans les crises des années 60 dans un contexte international certes difficile, l’Église de François cherche aujourd’hui à opérer dans une situation beaucoup plus articulée que celle d’alors. Ce n’est pas une coïncidence si Prodi a évoqué la troisième guerre mondiale par morceaux.
Indépendamment de ce que l’on pense de la guerre, Sachs nous a rappelé qu’il n’est possible de parler de durabilité que dans un climat de paix. Pour ceux qui, comme nous, se soucient de la durabilité systémique, le thème de la paix revêt une valeur particulière : il ne s’agit pas d’un pacifisme stérile, mais d’un investissement majeur dans un processus de construction historique responsable, libérateur et inclusif. Tout le contraire de ce qui se passe aujourd’hui, où la politique telle que nous la connaissons est ancrée dans le présent imminent, où la linéarité domine et où l’ ‘établi’ prévaut encore. Nous avons besoin d’une transformation radicale et profonde de nos paradigmes car le changement d’époque, au-delà de nos convictions, est déjà en marche.
Prospettive dai think tank – Perspectives from think tanks – Perspectives des think tanks
Worlds
Africa
Edward A. Burrier e Thomas P. Sheehy (United States Institute of Peace) scrivono dell’importanza dell’Africa per la competizione globale (in particolare, tra USA e Cina) sui materiali critici – Edward A. Burrier and Thomas P. Sheehy (United States Institute of Peace) write about the importance of Africa for global competition (in particular, between the US and China) on critical materials – Edward A. Burrier et Thomas P. Sheehy (United States Institute of Peace) écrivent sur l’importance de l’Afrique pour la concurrence mondiale (en particulier entre les États-Unis et la Chine) sur les matériaux critiques – Challenging China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Can Be a Boon for Africa’s Future | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
BIMSTEC
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury e Sreeparna Banerjee (ORF) scrivono che il Master Plan for Transport Connectivity di BIMSTEC ha un’importanza strategica per i Paesi membri dell’Asia meridionale e del Sud-Est asiatico – Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury and Sreeparna Banerjee (ORF) write that BIMSTEC’s Master Plan for Transport Connectivity is of strategic importance to South and South-East Asian member countries – Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury et Sreeparna Banerjee (ORF) écrivent que le Master Plan for Transport Connectivity du BIMSTEC revêt une importance stratégique pour les pays membres d’Asie du Sud et du Sud-Est – Driving connectivity: Bridging gaps in BIMSTEC’s transportation Master Plan | ORF (orfonline.org)
India
Air Marshal GS Bedi (VIF) scrive della necessità per l’India di dotarsi di una strategia di contrasto ai droni – Air Marshal GS Bedi (VIF) writes about the need for India to have a strategy to counter drones – Le maréchal de l’air GS Bedi (IVF) écrit sur la nécessité pour l’Inde d’avoir une stratégie pour contrer les drones – Drone Threat is Real: India Needs a Comprehensive Counter Drone Strategy | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Ramanath Jha (ORF) scrive dell’impatto del climate change sulle città indiane e della responsabilità di politiche sostenibili da parte dei governi locali – Ramanath Jha (ORF) writes about the impact of climate change on Indian cities and the responsibility of local governments for sustainable policies – Ramanath Jha (ORF) écrit sur l’impact du changement climatique sur les villes indiennes et sur la responsabilité des gouvernements locaux en matière de politiques durables – Climate action plan and Indian cities | ORF (orfonline.org)
Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity
Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan (ORF) scrive dei negoziati in ambito IPEF sulle catene di approvvigionamento – Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan (ORF) writes about the IPEF negotiations on supply chains – Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan (ORF) écrit à propos des négociations de l’IPEF sur les chaînes d’approvisionnement – Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity Reaches Supply Chain Agreement | ORF (orfonline.org)
Iran
L’aggiornamento quotidiano dal think tank ISW – The daily update from the ISW think tank – La mise à jour quotidienne du think tank ISW – Iran Update, June 9, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Japan
Rueben Dass (The Jamestown Foundation) scrivono degli attacchi perpetrati da individui isolati con armi rudimentali: un problema all’attenzione dei funzionari di sicurezza – Rueben Dass (The Jamestown Foundation) write about the attacks perpetrated by isolated individuals with rudimentary weapons: a problem to the attention of security officials – Rueben Dass (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit sur les attaques perpétrées par des individus isolés avec des armes rudimentaires : un problème à l’attention des responsables de la sécurité – The Rising Danger From Crude, Homemade Weapons and Political Violence in Japan – Jamestown
Pakistan
Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy (ORF) scrive della drammatica situazione economica del Pakistan e di come il Paese potrebbe prendere spunto dall’esperienza dello Sri Lanka – Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy (ORF) writes about Pakistan’s dire economic situation and how the country could take a cue from the Sri Lankan experience – Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy (ORF) écrit sur la situation économique désastreuse du Pakistan et sur la façon dont le pays pourrait s’inspirer de l’expérience sri-lankaise – Politics of a bailout: Lessons for Pakistan from the Sri Lankan crisis | ORF (orfonline.org)
Papua New Guinea – USA
Secondo lo United States Institute of Peace, gli USA hanno identificato la Papua Nuova Guinea come Paese partner prioritario nell’ambito della Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS) e la provincia di Morobe è stata nominata una delle due province prioritarie nel nuovo piano decennale della SPCPS – According to the United States Institute of Peace, the US has identified Papua New Guinea as a priority partner country in the Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS), and Morobe Province has been named one of the two priority provinces in the new ten-year SPCPS plan – Selon le United States Institute of Peace, les États-Unis ont identifié la Papouasie-Nouvelle-Guinée comme un pays partenaire prioritaire dans le cadre de la Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability (SPCPS), et la province de Morobe a été désignée comme l’une des deux provinces prioritaires dans le nouveau plan décennal de la SPCPS – Everyday Fragility and Stability in Papua New Guinea | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
Russia – Global Financial System
Un documento del think tank RUSI sui rischi posti dalla Russia al sistema finanziario globale – A RUSI think tank paper on the risks posed by Russia to the global financial system – Un document du think tank RUSI sur les risques posés par la Russie au système financier mondial – Maximising Awareness of Russia’s Threat to Global Financial System Integrity | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
South Asia – Islamic State
Un rapporto di United States Institute of Peace analizza la situazione e le prospettive dello Stato Islamico non solo in Afghanistan e in Pakistan, ma anche in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka e Maldive – A United States Institute of Peace report analyses the situation and prospects of the Islamic State not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and the Maldives – Un rapport de l’United States Institute of Peace analyse la situation et les perspectives de l’État islamique non seulement en Afghanistan et au Pakistan, mais aussi en Inde, au Bangladesh, au Myanmar, au Sri Lanka et aux Maldives – The Growing Threat of the Islamic State in Afghanistan and South Asia | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
Sri Lanka
Roshni Kapur (ORF) scrive dello Sri Lanka tra riforme economiche e difficoltà nella delicata questione della riconciliazione e della giustizia di transizione – Roshni Kapur (ORF) writes about Sri Lanka amid economic reforms and difficulties in the sensitive issue of reconciliation and transitional justice – Roshni Kapur (ORF) écrit sur le Sri Lanka dans le contexte des réformes économiques et des difficultés liées à la question sensible de la réconciliation et de la justice transitionnelle – Ethnic reconciliation in Sri Lanka: Another missed opportunity | ORF (orfonline.org)
Sudan
Michael Horton (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive che le Forze di Supporto Rapido (RSF) del Sudan sono agili, capaci e autofinanziate. E’ improbabile che le Forze Armate Sudanesi (SAF) riescano a sconfiggere le RSF. Se non ci saranno negoziati significativi, il Sudan dovrà affrontare una guerra prolungata che frammenterà la già fragile nazione – Michael Horton (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are agile, capable and self-financed. It is unlikely that the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) will be able to defeat the RSF. Unless there are meaningful negotiations, Sudan will face a protracted war that will fragment the already fragile nation – Michael Horton (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit que les forces de soutien rapide du Soudan (RSF) sont agiles, compétentes et autofinancées. Il est peu probable que les forces armées soudanaises (SAF) soient en mesure de vaincre les RSF. À moins de négociations sérieuses, le Soudan sera confronté à une guerre prolongée qui fragmentera une nation déjà fragile – Can the SAF Defeat the RSF in Sudan? – Jamestown
Syria
Muhsen AlMustafa (Atlantic Council) scrive come il regime di Assad stia operando per sfuggire alle sanzioni internazionali – Muhsen AlMustafa (Atlantic Council) writes how the Assad regime is working to escape international sanctions – Muhsen AlMustafa (Atlantic Council) explique comment le régime d’Assad s’efforce d’échapper aux sanctions internationales – Assad is appointing new military officials to escape sanctions on Syria – Atlantic Council
War in Ukraine
Sine Ozkarasahin (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive che l’uso da parte della Russia dei Mohajer-6 iraniani in Ucraina metterà sotto pressione le difese aeree e il personale militare ucraino: Ozkarasahin sostiene che non si tratta solo di un ‘successo’ iraniano ma anche di un indicatore delle vulnerabilità dell’Occidente nelle zone contese – Sine Ozkarasahin (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that Russia’s use of Iranian Mohajer-6s in Ukraine will put pressure on Ukrainian air defences and military personnel: Ozkarasahin argues that this is not only an Iranian ‘success’ but also an indicator of the West’s vulnerabilities in disputed areas – Sine Ozkarasahin (The Jamestown Foundation) écrit que l’utilisation par la Russie de Mohajer-6 iraniens en Ukraine exercera une pression sur les défenses aériennes et le personnel militaire ukrainiens : M. Ozkarasahin affirme qu’il ne s’agit pas seulement d’un ‘succès’ iranien, mais aussi d’un indicateur des vulnérabilités de l’Occident dans les zones contestées – Iran’s Mojaher-6 Drones May Tilt the Battlefield Balance in Ukraine – Jamestown
Seth G. Jones , Alexander Palmer e Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. (CSIS) scrivono della rete russa di fortificazioni difensive in Ucraina e delle modalità di controffensiva ucraina – Seth G. Jones , Alexander Palmer and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. (CSIS) write about the Russian network of defensive fortifications in Ukraine and possible ways of Ukrainian counter-offensive – Seth G. Jones , Alexander Palmer et Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. (CSIS) écrivent sur le réseau russe de fortifications défensives en Ukraine et sur les moyens possibles de contre-offensive ukrainienne – Ukraine’s Offensive Operations: Shifting the Offense-Defense Balance (csis.org)
L’aggiornamento quotidiano dal think tank ISW – The daily update from the ISW think tank – La mise à jour quotidienne du think tank ISW – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Topics
Global Governance
Amanda Kadlec e Cathy Haenlein (RUSI), partendo dal caso della Libia, scrivono delle difficoltà – in un mondo polarizzato e diviso – del sistema ONU delle sanzioni internazionali – Amanda Kadlec and Cathy Haenlein (RUSI), starting with the case of Libya, write about the difficulties – in a polarised and divided world – of the UN system of international sanctions – Amanda Kadlec et Cathy Haenlein (RUSI), en commençant par le cas de la Libye, écrivent sur les difficultés – dans un monde polarisé et divisé – du système de sanctions internationales de l’ONU – Libya as Prologue: The Uncertain Future of UN Sanctions in a Divided World | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Systemic Sustainability
Soumya Bhowmick (ORF) scrive della complessità dello sviluppo sostenibile – Soumya Bhowmick (ORF) writes about the complexity of sustainable development – Soumya Bhowmick (ORF) écrit sur la complexité du développement durable – Sustainable development: Evolution of a kind | ORF (orfonline.org)
Technology
Niam Yaraghi (Brookings) scrive dell’impatto di ChatGPT sui sistemi sanitari. Tra opportunità e rischi – Niam Yaraghi (Brookings) writes about the impact of ChatGPT on healthcare systems. Between opportunities and risks – Niam Yaraghi (Brookings) écrit sur l’impact du ChatGPT sur les systèmes de santé. Entre opportunités et risques – ChatGPT and health care: implications for interoperability and fairness (brookings.edu)
Un panel del think tank RUSI sulle sfide poste dalle smart cities cinesi – A RUSI think tank panel on the challenges posed by China’s smart cities – Une initiative su think tank RUSI sur les défis posés par les villes intelligentes de la Chine – The Geopolitics of China’s Smart Cities | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
