Il magazine di oggi, attraverso le analisi dei think tank, parte dalla Russia. Emily Ferris (RUSI) analizza i possibili movimenti nel sistema di potere russo dopo l’azione di Prigozhin: sullo sfondo, le presidenziali del 2024 (1). Angela Stent, Michael O’Hanlon, and Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings) discutono di ciò che è accaduto in Russia guardando alle conseguenze a lungo termine per la stabilità russa e per la sicurezza europea (2). Catrina Doxsee (CSIS) sviluppa un punto importante: il futuro di Wagner (e di quale Wagner) per le operazioni di sicurezza nei Paesi africani (3).
María Fernanda Bozmoski e Eva Lardizábal (Atlantic Council) scrivono a proposito del primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali in Guatemala e delle implicazioni economiche e geopolitiche. Tra gli elementi in gioco, il ruolo del Paese con Pechino e rispetto all’ ‘affaire’ Taiwan e le questioni decisive alle migrazioni al confine tra USA e Messico (4).
Alice Hill e Tess Turner (CFR) approfondiscono il tema del crescente impatto degli incendi, a partire dai recenti accadimenti in Canada che hanno avuto effetti negli USA. Gli incendi portano una complessità di effetti che va compresa e governata, anche con l’utilizzo dell’intelligenza artificiale (5).
Paul Chambers (East Asia Forum) descrive la difficile situazione politica in Thailandia dopo le ultime elezioni generali che hanno visto l’affermazione del partito progressista Move Forward. Chambers analizza i rapporti di forza verso la formazione del governo e l’evoluzione del periodo di transizione (6).
Joseph Negrine (East Asia Forum) scrive delle difficoltà, per il Vietnam, di passare a un’economia sostenibile (7).
Khang X. Vu (Lowy, The Interpreter) approfondisce il doppio legame geostrategico del Vietnam con gli USA e con la Cina e le possibili evoluzioni (8).
Yuki Tatsumi (ASPI, The Strategist) riflette sulla sostenibilità a medio-lungo termine dell’incremento delle spese per la difesa in Giappone: l’opinione pubblica è favorevole a tale incremento ma non attraverso un aumento delle tasse (9).
Joseph Webster (Lowy, The Interpreter) scrive del valore geostrategico, tra Cina e Russia, del potenziale di energie rinnovabili della Mongolia (10).
Neeraj Singh Manhas (The Jamestown Foundation) approfondisce il tema degli attacchi con droni sui territori del Jammu e Kashmir, e altrove in India, come rischio strategico. Occorre investire in tecnologie anti-UAV e nel miglioramento dell’addestramento del personale di sicurezza (11).
Radhey Tambi (Lowy, The Interpreter) analizza l’importanza dell’area ‘indo’ della strategia indo-pacifica del Quad. Tambi sottolinea il ruolo decisivo di India e Australia (12).
Animesh Roul (The Jamestown Foundation) descrive il rischio del ritorno della violenza jihadista in Bangladesh, soprattutto in vista delle elezioni generali del 2024, a opera del gruppo denominato Jamaatul-Ansar-fil-Hindal Sharqiya (13).
Harsh V. Pant (ORF) sottolinea il valore strategico, per USA e India, della storica visita di Modi a Washington (14).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) analizza il recente attacco a una scuola in Uganda, appena oltre il confine con la Repubblica Democratica del Congo, da parte del gruppo ISCAP. Zenn sottolinea la improbabilità di una risposta regionale coordinata contro l’ISCAP a causa delle rivalità e delle relazioni travagliate tra Repubblica Democratica del Congo, Uganda e Ruanda (15).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) descrive l’ultimo attacco del gruppo al-Shabaab a un hotel in una zona ‘sicura’ di Mogadiscio, in Somalia. Secondo Zenn, il gruppo terroristico vuole eliminare la presenza “straniera” delle truppe dell’Unione Africana in Somalia (16).
english version
Today’s magazine, through think tank analyses, starts in Russia. Emily Ferris (RUSI) analyses possible movements in the Russian power system after the Prigozhin action: in the background, the 2024 presidential elections (1). Angela Stent, Michael O’Hanlon, and Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings) discuss what happened in Russia looking at the long-term consequences for Russian stability and European security (2). Catrina Doxsee (CSIS) develops an important point: the future of Wagner (and which Wagner) for security operations in African countries (3).
María Fernanda Bozmoski and Eva Lardizábal (Atlantic Council) write about the first round of the presidential elections in Guatemala and the economic and geopolitical implications. Among the elements at stake are the country’s role with Beijing and with respect to the Taiwan ‘affaire’ and the decisive migration issues at the US-Mexico border (4).
Alice Hill and Tess Turner (CFR) explore the growing impact of wildfires, starting with recent events in Canada that have had effects in the US. Fires bring a complexity of effects that must be understood and governed, including with the use of artificial intelligence (5).
Paul Chambers (East Asia Forum) describes the difficult political situation in Thailand after the last general election in which the progressive Move Forward party came out on top. Chambers analyses the power relations towards the formation of the government and the evolution of the transition period (6).
Joseph Negrine (East Asia Forum) writes about the difficulties for Vietnam to transition to a sustainable economy (7).
Khang X. Vu (Lowy, The Interpreter) delves into Vietnam‘s geostrategic double bind with the US and China and possible developments (8).
Yuki Tatsumi (ASPI, The Strategist) reflects on the medium- to long-term sustainability of increased defence spending in Japan: public opinion is in favour of such an increase but not through tax increases (9).
Joseph Webster (Lowy, The Interpreter) writes about the geostrategic value, between China and Russia, of Mongolia‘s renewable energy potential (10).
Neeraj Singh Manhas (The Jamestown Foundation) discusses drone attacks on the territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and elsewhere in India, as a strategic risk. There is a need to invest in anti-UAV technologies and in improving the training of security personnel (11).
Radhey Tambi (Lowy, The Interpreter) analyses the importance of the ‘Indo’ area of the Quad’s Indo-Pacific strategy. Tambi emphasises the decisive role of India and Australia (12).
Animesh Roul (The Jamestown Foundation) describes the risk of the return of jihadist violence in Bangladesh, especially in view of the 2024 general election, by the group called Jamaatul-Ansar-fil-Hindal Sharqiya (13).
Harsh V. Pant (ORF) emphasises the strategic value for the US and India of Modi’s historic visit to Washington (14).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) analyses the recent attack on a school in Uganda, just over the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo, by the ISCAP group. Zenn emphasises the unlikelihood of a coordinated regional response against ISCAP due to the rivalries and troubled relations between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Rwanda (15).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) describes the al-Shabaab group’s latest attack on a hotel in a ‘safe’ area of Mogadishu, Somalia. According to Zenn, the terrorist group wants to eliminate the ‘foreign’ presence of African Union troops in Somalia (16).
version française
Le magazine d’aujourd’hui, à travers les analyses des think tanks, part de la Russie. Emily Ferris (RUSI) analyse les mouvements possibles dans le système de pouvoir russe après l’action de Prigozhin : en toile de fond, les élections présidentielles de 2024 (1). Angela Stent, Michael O’Hanlon et Constanze Stelzenmüller (Brookings) discutent de ce qui s’est passé en Russie en examinant les conséquences à long terme pour la stabilité russe et la sécurité européenne (2). Catrina Doxsee (CSIS) développe un point important : l’avenir de Wagner (et quel Wagner) pour les opérations de sécurité dans les pays africains (3).
María Fernanda Bozmoski et Eva Lardizábal (Atlantic Council) décrivent le premier tour des élections présidentielles au Guatemala et ses implications économiques et géopolitiques. Parmi les éléments en jeu figurent le rôle du pays vis-à-vis de Pékin et de l’affaire taïwanaise, ainsi que les questions migratoires décisives à la frontière entre les États-Unis et le Mexique (4).
Alice Hill et Tess Turner (CFR) examinent l’impact croissant des incendies de forêt, en commençant par les événements récents au Canada qui ont eu des répercussions aux États-Unis. Les incendies ont des effets complexes qu’il convient de comprendre et de gérer, notamment en recourant à l’intelligence artificielle (5).
Paul Chambers (East Asia Forum) décrit la situation politique difficile en Thaïlande après les dernières élections générales qui ont vu le parti progressiste Move Forward arriver en tête. Chambers analyse les rapports de force en vue de la formation du gouvernement et l’évolution de la période de transition (6).
Joseph Negrine (East Asia Forum) écrit sur les difficultés pour le Vietnam de passer à une économie durable (7).
Khang X. Vu (Lowy, The Interpreter) se penche sur la double contrainte géostratégique du Viêt Nam avec les États-Unis et la Chine et sur les développements possibles (8).
Yuki Tatsumi (ASPI, The Strategist) s’interroge sur la viabilité à moyen et long terme d’une augmentation des dépenses de défense au Japon : l’opinion publique est favorable à une telle augmentation, mais pas par le biais de hausses d’impôts (9).
Joseph Webster (Lowy, The Interpreter) évoque la valeur géostratégique, entre la Chine et la Russie, du potentiel énergétique renouvelable de la Mongolie (10).
Neeraj Singh Manhas (The Jamestown Foundation) analyse les attaques de drones sur les territoires du Jammu et du Cachemire, et ailleurs en Inde, comme un risque stratégique. Il est nécessaire d’investir dans les technologies anti-drones et d’améliorer la formation du personnel de sécurité (11).
Radhey Tambi (Lowy, The Interpreter) analyse l’importance de la zone “Indo” de la stratégie indo-pacifique du Quad. Il souligne le rôle décisif de l’Inde et de l’Australie (12).
Animesh Roul (The Jamestown Foundation) décrit le risque de retour de la violence djihadiste au Bangladesh, notamment dans la perspective des élections générales de 2024, par le groupe Jamaatul-Ansar-fil-Hindal Sharqiya (13).
Harsh V. Pant (ORF) souligne la valeur stratégique pour les États-Unis et l’Inde de la visite historique de Modi à Washington (14).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) analyse l’attaque récente d’une école en Ouganda, juste à la frontière avec la République démocratique du Congo, par le groupe ISCAP. Zenn souligne la faible probabilité d’une réponse régionale coordonnée contre l’ISCAP en raison des rivalités et des relations difficiles entre la République démocratique du Congo, l’Ouganda et le Rwanda (15).
Jacob Zenn (The Jamestown Foundation) décrit la dernière attaque du groupe al-Shabaab contre un hôtel situé dans une zone “sûre” de Mogadiscio, en Somalie. Selon Zenn, le groupe terroriste veut éliminer la présence “étrangère” des troupes de l’Union africaine en Somalie (16).
(2) Putin imperiled? What to know about the Wagner Group’s Russian revolt | Brookings
(3) Prigozhin’s Uncertain Future Could Help United States Dislodge Wagner Group in Africa (csis.org)
(4) As Guatemala’s voters signal a left turn, great powers are watching closely – Atlantic Council
(5) Adapting to Wildfires in a Warming World | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(6) Thailand’s military machinations will define post-election political manoeuvring | East Asia Forum
(7) In search of greener pastures for sustainable growth in Vietnam | East Asia Forum
(8) China’s double wedge against efforts to foster Vietnam-US relations | Lowy Institute
(9) Making Japan’s defence spending sustainable | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(10) Mongolia in the middle: China and Russia may split over the allure of renewables | Lowy Institute
(11) India’s Responses to Rising Drone Attacks on its Territory – Jamestown
(12) To balance the Quad equation, India and Australia must drive an “Indo” focus | Lowy Institute
(13) Jamaatul Ansar: A Terrorism Threat in Bangladesh Before the 2024 Elections? – Jamestown
(14) India and US – A Partnership Crafted by Modi and China | ORF (orfonline.org)
(15) Brief: ISCAP Conducts School Massacre in Uganda – Jamestown
(16) Brief: Al-Shabaab Surges on Multiple Fronts in Somalia – Jamestown
