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Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (it/en – november 6, 2023)

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Israel-Middle East – Collecting analyses from global think tanks

Daily from global think tanks

Worlds (AUKUS; Australia; Australia-Canada-New Zealand; India; India-IMEC; India-Indonesia; India-Russia; Iraq; Koreas; Nagorno Karabakh; Solomon Islands; South China Sea; Ukraine; USA-EU)

AUKUS

Justin Bassi e Bec Shrimpton sottolineano il punto strategico dell’iniziativa AUKUS: affrontare la sfida della Cina (ASPI The Strategist)

Justin Bassi and Bec Shrimpton emphasise the strategic point of the AUKUS initiative: meeting the challenge of China (ASPI The Strategist)

AUKUS sceptics are missing the point | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Australia

Jenny Gordon scrive di cosa significhi, per l’Australia, immaginare e attuare politiche di de-risking. Nel rapporto complesso tra economia e sicurezza (Lowy The Interpreter)

Jenny Gordon writes about what it means for Australia to imagine and implement de-risking policies. In the complex relationship between economics and security (Lowy The Interpreter)

Fighting risk in everything, everywhere, all at once | Lowy Institute

Bronte Munro scrive dell’importanza, per l’Australia, di rafforzare la produzione di semiconduttori. Nota Munro che, con una forte industria manifatturiera di semiconduttori, l’Australia sarebbe in grado di produrre chip rilevanti per i settori dell’energia, dei trasporti, della sanità, della tecnologia dell’informazione e della difesa. Potrebbe, in tal modo: far avanzare i propri piani nello sviluppo di tecnologie critiche come l’intelligenza quantistica e artificiale; ridurre la vulnerabilità alle interruzioni della catena di approvvigionamento dovute a conflitti o disastri naturali, sostenendo al tempo stesso posti di lavoro altamente qualificati (ASPI The Strategist)

Bronte Munro writes about the importance for Australia of strengthening semiconductor manufacturing. Munro notes that, with a strong semiconductor manufacturing industry, Australia would be able to produce chips relevant to the energy, transport, healthcare, information technology and defense sectors. It could, in this way: advance its plans in the development of critical technologies such as quantum and artificial intelligence; reduce vulnerability to supply chain disruptions due to conflict or natural disasters, while supporting highly skilled jobs (ASPI The Strategist)

Securing the talent for Australia’s semiconductor-manufacturing moonshot | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Australia – Canada – New Zealand

Federica Caso scrive che, negli ultimi dieci anni, i governi delle società anglo-coloniali come Australia, Canada e Nuova Zelanda hanno promosso attivamente l’inclusione delle popolazioni indigene nelle rispettive forze di difesa. Pur in presenza di vantaggi strategici, l’obiettivo principale è principalmente incentrato sulla promozione della riconciliazione. La difesa è stata identificata come un settore che può rafforzare la riconciliazione promuovendo l’inclusione degli indigeni nella forza lavoro e l’integrazione nella società (Australian Institute for International Affairs)

Federica Caso writes that, over the past decade, governments in Anglo-colonial societies such as Australia, Canada and New Zealand have actively promoted the inclusion of indigenous populations in their respective defense forces. While there are strategic advantages, the main objective is mainly focused on promoting reconciliation. Defense has been identified as a sector that can strengthen reconciliation by promoting Indigenous inclusion in the workforce and integration into society (Australian Institute for International Affairs)

Defence’s Inclusion of Indigenous People in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs

India

Arvind Khare scrive a proposito del Technology Development Fund (TDF) Scheme, programma di punta del Dipartimento di Ricerca e Sviluppo della Difesa del Ministero della Difesa indiano. L’obiettivo è di creare un ecosistema per promuovere l’autosufficienza attraverso la costruzione di sistemi all’avanguardia, tecnologie emergenti o futuristiche per applicazioni di difesa attraverso la partecipazione attiva di industrie private (Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

Arvind Khare writes about the Technology Development Fund (TDF) Scheme, a flagship programme of the Defence Research and Development Department of the Indian Ministry of Defence. The aim is to create an ecosystem to promote self-sufficiency by building state-of-the-art systems, emerging or futuristic technologies for defence applications through the active participation of private industries (Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses)

Technology Development Fund: Opportunities and Challenges | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)

Selwyn Parker scrive che in India, secondo le proiezioni degli esperti, entro il 2030 otto vendite su dieci di veicoli a due e tre ruote saranno elettriche, riducendo l’inquinamento e le importazioni di petrolio. Se le vendite rispetteranno queste ultime previsioni, si stima che verranno eliminate 850 milioni di tonnellate di emissioni di CO2 e 207 miliardi di dollari di petrolio altrimenti utilizzati (Lowy The Interpreter)

Selwyn Parker writes that in India, experts project that by 2030, eight out of ten sales of two- and three-wheelers will be electric, reducing pollution and oil imports. If sales meet these latest forecasts, an estimated 850 million tonnes of CO2 emissions and $207 billion of oil otherwise used will be eliminated (Lowy The Interpreter)

E-rickshaws turn the tide for India | Lowy Institute

India – IMEC

Marilyn Kwan Kharkongor scrive che il corridoio di connettività IMEC potrebbe apportare grandi vantaggi all’India. Questo corridoio collega l’India con l’Arabia Saudita, gli Emirati Arabi Uniti, la Giordania, Israele e l’Unione Europea attraverso una rotta mare-ferrovia-mare che potrebbe accelerare il commercio del 40%. IMEC rafforzerà i legami diplomatici e gli impegni economici dell’India con il Medio Oriente e l’Europa attraverso una migliore connettività (Australian Institute for International Affairs)

Marilyn Kwan Kharkongor writes that the IMEC connectivity corridor could bring great benefits to India. This corridor connects India with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Israel and the European Union through a sea-rail-sea route that could accelerate trade by 40%. IMEC will strengthen India’s diplomatic ties and economic engagements with the Middle East and Europe through improved connectivity (Australian Institute for International Affairs)

India-Middle East Corridor: Enhancing India’s Connectivity Diplomacy – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs

India – Indonesia

Peter Drysdale e Rojan Joshi scrivono di come India e Indonesia dovrebbero collocarsi in un quadro globale nel quale si stanno affermando l’autosufficienza e le strategie di sostituzione delle importazioni (East Asia Forum)

Peter Drysdale and Rojan Joshi write about how India and Indonesia should fit into a global framework in which self-sufficiency and import substitution strategies are emerging (East Asia Forum)

Import substituting industrial policy threatens India and Indonesia’s development success | East Asia Forum

India – Russia

Nandan Unnikrishnan e Ankita Dutta descrivono l’evoluzione e l’importanza della partnership tra India e Russia (Observer Research Foundation)

Nandan Unnikrishnan and Ankita Dutta describe the evolution and importance of the partnership between India and Russia (Observer Research Foundation)

Tracing the Strategic Dimensions of India-Russia Relations | ORF (orfonline.org)

Iraq

Sarhang Hamasaeed scrive di come al-Sudani si è mosso nel difficile ambiente politico iracheno, esamina lo stato dell’ambiziosa agenda economica e di sviluppo del governo e guarda come l’Iraq sta affrontando gli sviluppi a Gaza (United States Institute of Peace)

Sarhang Hamasaeed writes about how al-Sudani navigated Iraq’s difficult political environment, examines the state of the government’s ambitious economic and development agenda, and looks at how Iraq is approaching developments in Gaza (United States Institute of Peace)

Iraq’s al-Sudani Government, One Year Later | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)

Koreas

Khang X. Vu si domanda se la Corea del Sud dovrebbe preoccuparsi di possibili attacchi da parte della Corea del Nord ‘in stile’ Hamas (Lowy The Interpreter)

Khang X. Vu questions whether South Korea should worry about possible attacks by North Korea ‘in the style’ of Hamas (Lowy The Interpreter)

How vulnerable is South Korea to a “Hamas-style” attack from the North? | Lowy Institute

Nagorno Karabakh

V K Saxena analizza la storia recente del Nagorno Karabakh fino al momento attuale. Come si muove il suo equilibrio instabile ? (Vivekananda International Foundation)

V K Saxena analyses the recent history of Nagorno Karabakh up to the present time. How is its unstable balance shifting? (Vivekananda International Foundation)

The Nagorno-Karabakh Seesaw – an Unstable Equilibrium | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Solomon Islands 

Anouk Ride scrive delle preoccupazioni per la sicurezza climatica nelle Isole Salomone (United States Institute of Peace)

Anouk Ride writes about climate security concerns in the Solomon Islands (United States Institute of Peace)

Climate Change and Conflict in Solomon Islands | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)

South China Sea

Il punto di vista di Rup Narayan Das sulla necessità che la Cina rispetti le regole della United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1982) nel Mar Cinese Meridionale. L’area, nota l’Autore, è strategica: secondo l’Energy Information Administration statunitense,  nel Mar Cinese Meridionale vi sarebbero circa 11 miliardi di barili di petrolio e 190 mila miliardi di piedi cubi di gas naturale (Vivekananda International Foundation)

Rup Narayan Das’ views on the need for China to comply with the rules of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS, 1982) in the South China Sea. The area, the author notes, is strategic: according to the US Energy Information Administration, there are about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the South China Sea (Vivekananda International Foundation)

Turbulence in South China Sea: Need to Enforce UNCLOS | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)

Ukraine

James Rupert scrive che, secondo molti esperti, le elezioni in Ucraina – in tempo di guerra – rischiano di erodere una già fragile democrazia (United States Institute of Peace)

James Rupert writes that, according to many experts, the wartime elections in Ukraine risk eroding an already fragile democracy (United States Institute of Peace)

For Ukraine Democracy: Reforms Now, Elections When Possible | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)

USA – EU

Gesine Weber scrive, in termini critici, del recente vertice tra USA e Unione Europe (German Marshall Fund of the United States)

Gesine Weber writes, in critical terms, about the recent summit between the USA and the European Union (German Marshall Fund of the United States)

A Danger of Muddling Through | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)

Systemic Sustainability (Climate Action; Complex Security; Nuclear Disarmament)

Climate Action

Mike Speirs scrive che la scomparsa delle foreste tropicali è una delle priorità nell’agenda globale del cambiamento climatico e della biodiversità. Con focus su Bolivia, Ghana e Indonesia, un paper sottolinea la necessità di affrontare le cause della deforestazione, compresi i cambiamenti nell’uso del suolo per la coltivazione e l’allevamento. Nell’indagine viene sottolineato il ruolo decisivo delle popolazioni indigene e delle comunità locali (Danish Institute for International Studies)

Mike Speirs writes that the disappearance of tropical forests is one of the priorities on the global climate change and biodiversity agenda. Focusing on Bolivia, Ghana and Indonesia, a paper highlights the need to address the causes of deforestation, including changes in land use for cultivation and livestock. The survey highlights the decisive role of indigenous populations and local communities (Danish Institute for International Studies)

Tropical rainforests and global warming | DIIS

Complex Security

Alexandra Kuimova, Paul Holtom e Nan Tian scrivono che il mondo sta affrontando un’ampia gamma di rischi per la sicurezza, molti dei quali di natura non militare. L’idea che la sicurezza militare, la sicurezza ecologica e la più ampia sicurezza umana costituiscano un ‘unico spazio di sicurezza’ sta emergendo nei dibattiti e nelle scelte strategiche (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

Alexandra Kuimova, Paul Holtom and Nan Tian write that the world is facing a wide range of security risks, many of which are non-military in nature. The idea that military security, ecological security and broader human security constitute a ‘single security space’ is emerging in debates and policy choices (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

Is it time to reassess national security spending? | SIPRI

Nuclear Disarmament

Alexander Mattelaer scrive che, oltre alla Russia, anche la Cina sta investendo massicciamente nel suo arsenale nucleare. L’emergere di una seconda superpotenza nucleare rappresenta una sfida enorme per gli Stati Uniti e i loro alleati (EGMONT – The Royal Institute for International Relations)

Alexander Mattelaer writes that, in addition to Russia, China is also investing heavily in its nuclear arsenal. The emergence of a second nuclear superpower represents an enormous challenge for the United States and its allies (EGMONT – The Royal Institute for International Relations)

Bleak prospects for nuclear disarmament – Egmont Institute