LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Argentina
(Martin Mühleisen – Atlantic Council) The economic prospects for Argentina with the Milei presidency
Argentina needs reforms even more than the IMF’s money – Atlantic Council
Australia – China
(Marina Yue Zhang, Hans Hendrischke – East Asia Forum) Chinese technology enterprises are navigating a particularly turbulent current in Australia. The growing scepticism and regulatory scrutiny they face reflect a techno-geopolitical uncertainty, with Australia caught between its economic interdependence with China and strategic alignment with the United States. China’s pivot from a major recipient to a significant source of foreign direct investment, particularly through its new technology firms, marks a major shift in the global economic scene. Australia, with its rich resources and strategic location, emerged as a key destination for Chinese outward FDI. Yet the warm welcome Chinese investment in Australia has cooled considerably in recent years
AUKUS – USA – Pacific
(Mark F. Cancian – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The report ‘Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS aims to help the defense industry and governments identify future capabilities to deal with the rising challenge from China. The AUKUS agreement has been a major development in facing this challenge, but insights here apply to the full spectrum of U.S. allies and partners in the Pacific
Security in the Western Pacific: Building Future Capabilities in the Time of AUKUS (csis.org)
Balochistan – China
(Riccardo Valle, Lucas Webber – The Jamestown Foundation) The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) militant group in Pakistan opposes Chinese investment projects in Balochistan province, viewing China as complicit in Pakistani government oppression of their people. The BLA has carried out multiple attacks against Chinese nationals and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) installations since 2018. The group stated that it would increase attacks on Chinese interests in Pakistan after 90 days unless China withdrew from Balochistan entirely. While the BLA’s 90-day ultimatum came and passed without a major attack, competition among various Baloch militant groups could drive new attacks in early 2024 by the BLA or other allied Baloch separatist groups
Cambodia
(Will Brehm – East Asia Forum) After Cambodia’s 1998 elections, Hun Sen declared he was ‘the only captain of the ship’, finally shedding the conflicting title of co-prime minister he shared with Prince Norodom Ranariddh for the previous five years. Fast forward a quarter century, the captain successfully orchestrated a power transfer to his son, Hun Manet. Hun Sen has evaded mutiny, rebellion and revolt from the vying factions within his Cambodian People’s Party
Hun Manet faces his father’s uneven economic legacy | East Asia Forum
European Union – Hamas
(Adam Rousselle – The Jamestown Foundation) German authorities arrested four alleged Hamas operatives in Berlin and Rotterdam in December 2023 for allegedly plotting attacks on Jewish sites in Europe. Three additional suspects were arrested in Denmark and Netherlands. The German interior ministry considers Berlin-based Majed al-Zeer to be “[Hamas’s] secret representative in Germany,” and a key European conduit for Hamas fundraising in Europe. Government attempts at charging al-Zeer have not succeeded. Crackdowns on Hamas abroad risk further alienating the sizable Palestinian diaspora community in Europe, especially in Berlin. This could inspire more recruitment into Jihadist militant groups.
European Sting Operations Target Suspected Hamas Operatives – Jamestown
Global Perspectives
1 – (Atlantic Council) The world in 2034. About 300 experts discuss the world in the next 10 years
2 – (Bruce Jones – GA) From the Red Sea to the Baltic and the Pacific, geopolitics are putting global commerce at risk
Globalization is at risk (goodauthority.org)
Indonesia
1 – (Jacob Zenn – The Jamestown Foundation) Indonesia’s general election is scheduled for February 14, 2024. 59 militants were arrested on October 31, 2023 for planning to disrupt said elections, including 19 members of Jemaa Islamiya (JI), which was previously believed to have been dormant. 40 suspects from the Jamaah Anshar Daulah (JAD) group have also been arrested for planning attacks around the elections, according to Indonesia’s Densus 88 counterterrorism unit
Brief: Indonesian Counter-Terrorism Forces on Edge Ahead of Elections – Jamestown
2 – (Chris Morris – East Asia Forum) 2024 promises to be a busy year for Indonesian democracy. Voters will elect a new president, 20,462 national and regional legislators and, later, some 548 regional heads. As Indonesia’s democratic transition has stagnated and shown increasing signs of regression, direct election of regional heads remains popular among voters even as some elites have again soured on the idea. There are additional factors that may either strengthen or further undermine the quality of Indonesian democracy in 2024
Will 2024’s regional head elections strengthen or undermine Indonesian democracy? | East Asia Forum
Near East
1 – (Atlantic Council) Exports on the US and UK strikes on Houthis and what to expect next – including the prospects of a regional war with Iran
Experts react: What to know about US and UK strikes on the Houthis in Yemen – Atlantic Council
2 – (Jon B. Alterman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) In the overnight hours of January 11–12, U.S. and British forces used air-, ship-, and submarine-launched weapons against about 60 targets in Yemen
Why Did the United States Just Bomb Yemen? (csis.org)
3 – (Lisandra Novo – Atlantic Council) The Author, who previously was a judicial fellow at the International Court of Justice, explains what about the case against Israel and what to expect going forward
Five questions and answers about South Africa’s genocide case against Israel – Atlantic Council
Nigeria – Boko Haram
(Jacob Zenn – The Jamestown Foundation) Boko Haram and its ISWAP faction have been locked in a stalemate with the Nigerian military. The group may only seek to preserve the status quo rather than risk provoking a major army offensive. The stalemate has persisted since 2014
Brief: Is Boko Haram Bracing for Another ‘Quiet’ Year in 2024? – Jamestown
Pakistan – Afghanistan – USA
(Moneeb Mir – The Jamestown Foundation) Pakistan’s army chief visited the United States in December to “reset” strained relations and potentially secure American aid in the hopes of ameliorating Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis and rising militant threat. Since the 2021 Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, there has been a 65 percent surge in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Islamabad blames this on the Afghan Taliban’s support of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Pakistan is increasingly retaliating by means of economic sanctions and the forced return of more than a million Afghan refugees. This policy could destabilize the region and force the United States to refocus its attention back to Afghanistan and Pakistan
Pakistani Army Chief Faces Uphill Battle in Effort to Reset Relations with Washington – Jamestown
Vietnam
(Suiwah Leung – East Asia Forum) As an economy develops, economic policy and social policy tend to overlap. Reports of long queues of people in Ho Chi Minh City withdrawing their social insurance contributions after losing their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic is an example. Workers in the formal sector viewed their contributions to a retirement income insurance scheme as their savings to be drawn upon in hard times. Yet premature withdrawal makes retirement savings and insurance schemes financially unsustainable in the longer term. This is a challenge facing Vietnam’s government in developing a coherent social protection system aligned with the aspiration of being a middle to upper middle-income country
Solving Vietnam’s social protection sustainability problem | East Asia Forum
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Taiwan, un voto con ripercussioni sui rapporti Usa-Cina / Taiwan, a vote with repercussions on US-China relations (Carlo Rebecchi)
- La leadership nell’era dell’intelligenza artificiale / Leadership in the age of artificial intelligence (Marzia Giglioli)
- Oltre i confini. Per il dialogo. A colloquio con Domitilla Olivieri (Università di Utrecht) / Beyond borders. For dialogue. In conversation with Domitilla Olivieri (Utrecht University) (Marzia Giglioli)
- Israele-Gaza. Continua il (complesso) work-in-progress diplomatico / Israel-Gaza. The (complex) diplomatic work-in-progress continues (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Meteo: febbre sempre più alta (Marzia Giglioli)
- Mediazione come essenza della politica / Mediation as the essence of politics (Marco Emanuele)
- Il G7 e la sfida della mediazione / The G7 and the challenge of mediation (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
