Geostrategic magazine (january 15, 2024)


Daily from global think tanks and open sources

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)


(John Asafu-Adjaye – SAIIA) Although Africa contributes only 3.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions and bears the brunt of climate impacts, several countries in the region have presented ambitious targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions to help reduce global emissions. Many African countries, due to national budget problems, must depend on external financing to achieve their climate goals. The topic has been addressed by the Indonesian and Indian presidencies of the G20 and will form the African agenda under the upcoming Brazilian and South African presidencies

How Can the G20 Support Africa’s Energy Transition and Sustainable Financing Priorities and Concerns? – SAIIA

Defense – Military

1 – (Nick Childs – IISS) A revolution is underway in the deployment of uninhabited aerial vehicles from ships at sea. It is enabling new and more adaptive approaches to maritime air power for navies with traditional aircraft carrier and opening the door to shipborne aviation for more naval forces

A new era beckons for UAVs at sea (

2 – (Zachary Kallenborn – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) On January 22, 2021, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons entered into force with 69 state parties. The treaty aims to ban nuclear weapons, bringing global nuclear weapons arsenals down to zero. Treaty states, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, and other global zero activists that pushed for the treaty frequently highlight the existential harms from nuclear weapons, including in the second meeting of state parties to the treaty. The concern is legitimate. A 2022 study in Nature estimated a nuclear war between the United States and Russia would blast massive amounts of soot into the atmosphere, disrupting the global climate, and causing massive food shortages that could kill over five billion people

Why a nuclear weapons ban would threaten, not save, humanity – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (

3 – (Steven Feldstein – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) For nearly 14 years, Israeli operatives had targeted Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who oversaw a clandestine program to build a nuclear warhead. On November 27, 2020, in a move that stunned the world, Israeli intelligence officials assassinated the scientist. Fakhrizadeh and his wife had left the Caspian coast and were traveling in a convoy of four cars towards their family home in the Iranian countryside. As they approached a U-turn, a cascade of bullets shattered their windshield and struck Fakhrizadeh repeatedly. The Israeli agent who carried out the assassination didn’t have to flee the scene: The shooter had used a remote-operated machine gun, triggered from more than 1,000 miles away. The Mossad had customized a Belgian-manufactured rifle with an advanced robotic apparatus that fit into the bed of a pickup truck and was outfitted with a bevy of cameras, providing a full view of the target and the surrounding environment. To account for the delay in transmission of signals to the weapon, the Mossad used artificial intelligence software to factor in a time lag, the shaking of the truck caused as each bullet was fired, and the speed of Fakhrizadeh’s vehicle

AI in war: Can advanced military technologies be tamed before it’s too late? – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (

European Union 

(Sarah Bressan – EUISS) Prevenire i conflitti violenti e promuovere la pace sono i principali obiettivi di politica estera dell’Unione Europea, in particolare per quanto riguarda i suoi immediati vicini. La recente escalation di violenza in luoghi come Ucraina, Mali e Sudan solleva la questione se i meccanismi di prevenzione dei conflitti dell’UE siano efficaci e come possano essere rafforzati. Dal 2012, l’UE è dotata di un sistema di allerta precoce dei conflitti, che è stato recentemente aggiornato come insieme di strumenti per l’analisi dei conflitti e l’allarme rapido dell’UE. Il set di strumenti è uno dei rari esempi di sistema che integra la previsione dei conflitti basata sui dati con le tradizionali valutazioni qualitative e di intelligence. Il Servizio europeo per l’azione esterna (SEAE) dovrebbe concentrarsi sull’ampliamento degli strumenti metodologici per includere approcci di previsione innovativi. Insieme alla Commissione europea, agli Stati membri e ad altri partner, dovrebbe rafforzare il collegamento tra allarme e azione per garantire che le analisi si traducano in una prevenzione significativa e coordinata

The power and limits of data for peace | European Union Institute for Security Studies (

European Union – Mercosur – China

(Agathe Demarais – European Council on Foreign Relations) Deepening ties with Mercosur countries makes sense as part of the EU’s risk-reduction efforts to diversify economic ties away from China. Further delays in signing a free trade agreement would push Latin America closer to Beijing’s orbit

The bigger picture: The case for an EU-Mercosur free trade deal | ECFR

European Union – Ukraine 

(Carl Bildt – European Council on Foreign Relations) Russia will continue its war on Ukraine for as long as it can. Europeans need to make it clear that their will to support Kyiv will not falter

A war of wills: Europe’s peace mission in 2024 | ECFR


(Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Since at least a decade, migration has remained a hot-button issue in European politics, providing fodder for parties on the right of the ideological spectrum. With a steady increase in its migrant population from 8.5 percent in 2010 to over 10 percent in 2022, the situation is no different in France where the issue has long presided over French politics

France moves to the right on immigration (

Global Perspectives

1 – (World Bank) As the world approaches the midpoint of what was supposed to be a transformative decade for development, the global economy is set to reach a grim record by the end of 2024: the fastest half-decade of GDP growth slower than the last 30 years, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report

Global Economy Set for Weakest Half-Decade Performance in 30 Years (

2 – (Samir Saran, Jane Harman – Observer Research Foundation) Wars rage in the Middle East, Europe and Africa; 2023 marked the largest ever increase in a year of forced displacement. In addition to these security challenges, the world faces a warming planet and a fragile global economy. Despite this discouraging picture, there are ways in which the international community can still work together. Experts from the Global Future Council on Geopolitics of the World Economic Forum write how, in a report entitled Shaping Cooperation in a Fragmenting World

4 pathways to cooperation amid geopolitical fragmentation (

India – UK

(Rahul Roy-Chaudhury – IISS) India and the UK are strengthening their defence cooperation as their strategic priorities increasingly align, but this has not yet led to tangible industrial collaboration

India’s defence minister visits the UK (


(Khang X. Vu – Lowy The Interpreter) North Korean President Kim Jong-un stressed, at the end of 2023, that the peaceful unification of the two Koreas is now “impossible”. In addition to this, he promised a “decisive political change” towards South Korea, now an “enemy” of the North and a “separate state”. Guard posts were quickly rebuilt within the demilitarized zone. Some reports indicate that North Korea has redeployed mines near the Gyeongui land road that connects the city of Paju in South Korea to the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea

A new year, same old story on the Korean Peninsula in 2024 | Lowy Institute

Near East

1 – (Tamir Hayman – INSS) 100 days into the war. After Israel dismantled most of Hamas’ military capabilities (although Israel has not yet dealt with the Rafah Brigade and the leadership has not been eliminated), now the dilemma is political

The 100 Days Junction | INSS

2 – (Louis René Beres – BESA Center) Although the issues of Palestinian statehood and nuclear war are usually treated by Israel as separate dangers, they have the potential to intersect. Iran’s ties with a possible state of Palestine, which are likely to be close, could lead to a direct military conflict between Iran and Israel

Dangerously Ignored Intersections: Palestinian Statehood and Regional Nuclear War (

3 – (Nina Lakhani – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The planet-warming emissions generated during the first two months of the war in Gaza were greater than the annual carbon footprint of more than 20 of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, new research reveals

Measuring the carbon ‘boot print’ of Israel’s war in Gaza – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (


(Xavier Devictor, Raouf Mazou, Abdullahi Mire, Nancy Karambo Riungu – World Bank) Forced displacement is a development challenge, not just a humanitarian concern. As of September 2023, 114 million people were displaced, and this number continues to grow as conflict and insecurity increase around the world. Most refugees are hosted in developing countries and issues surrounding the support and integration of refugee communities are often deeply political

How Can We Better Support Refugees? | The Development Podcast Limited Series: A World Free of Poverty on a Livable Planet (


(Chia Siow Yue – East Asia Forum) Singapore depends heavily on inflows and outflows of investments, trade in goods and services, food and energy. In an unstable global context, geopolitics, structural issues and internal scandals have impacted the country in 2023. Externally, geopolitical tensions have contributed to creating a less favorable environment. Economic fallout from increased global protectionism for national security reasons, supply chain and technology disruptions, and fears of global inflation and recession have added to this new complexity

External turbulence meets internal politics, demographics and geography and threatens Singapore with the slow lane | East Asia Forum

South Africa

(Isabel Bosman, Keanen Isaacs – SAIIA) More than a year has passed since the expiration of the Cooperation Agreement between the United States and South Africa on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy (Agreement 123). With its expiration, the export license of Westinghouse Electric Corporation, one of South Africa’s main suppliers of nuclear fuel, was also suspended. This added to existing uncertainties about the future of the Koeberg nuclear power plant

The Future of SA Nuclear Energy Post-123 Agreement – SAIIA


(Napon Jatusripitak – East Asia Forum) Thailand’s May 2023 general election produced an alliance between former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and the conservative establishment. This was part of the deal to prevent the Move Forward Party (MFP), the winner of the elections, from taking power. To thwart MFP, Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party was allowed to form the government with Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. Thaksin was allowed to return to Thailand and was granted a partial royal pardon

Is Thailand’s new elite pact a marriage of convenience or lasting alliance? | East Asia Forum


(Andrew Dorman – Chatham House) The news that the UK had joined the US military strikes on Yemen was not a huge surprise. Both had hinted in recent days that such action was likely if the Houthis continued to attack shipping in the Red Sea. Why did the British government decide to carry out air strikes on Yemen and what does this tell us about the state of the British military?

The UK’s participation in air strikes on Yemen exposes its diminished military strength | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

UK – USA – Houthis

1 – (Farea Al-Muslimi – Chatham House) The US and UK airstrikes on Yemen were described by the Biden administration as “a clear message” that the US will not “allow hostile actors to endanger freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described the attacks as “a limited, necessary and proportionate action in self-defence”

The Houthis won’t back down after US and UK strikes on Yemen | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

2 – (Ilan Zalayat, Yoel Guzansky – INSS) After the Houthis did not heed warnings from Washington and London to stop attacking ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the United States and the United Kingdom, with the help of others countries, attacked a number of targets in Yemen

Attacking the Houthis in Yemen: Significance of the Escalation in the Red Sea | INSS

3 – (Crisis Group) In response to repeated Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched airstrikes against Houthi positions in Yemen. What are the implications?

What next after U.S. and UK strikes on the Houthis? | Crisis Group


1 – (Vivek Mishra, Sameer Patil – Observer Research Foundation) The Biden administration is seeking to establish a comprehensive cybersecurity strategy as part of its national security. The paper analyzes the cyber threat landscape in the United States and examines the Biden administration’s cybersecurity strategy. Explores the ideological, geopolitical, technological and diplomatic significance of strategy in a rapidly evolving industry

Decoding the Biden Administration’s Cyber Security Policy (

2 – (Vivek Mishra, Pankaj Fanase – Observer Research Foundation) The US faces deepening political divisions and discontent with governance. This portends a volatile electoral race with significant domestic and international implications

Precarious path to the 2024 US Election (

USA – Asia

1 – (Rahul Mishra, Peter Brian M. Wang – ASPI The Strategist) With the signing of the Indo-Pacific Supply Chain Economic Framework Agreement in November last year, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco, the United States took a step important towards the creation of a regional economic architecture under their leadership

Is the US committed to strengthening the Indo-Pacific economic order? | The Strategist (

2 – (Ryan Hass – East Asia Forum) 2023 was an important year for American foreign policy in Asia. Washington has strengthened key alliances, improved relations with strategic partners, and advanced institutional innovations in forums such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. The US has taken advantage of a favorable diplomatic timetable to improve its position in the region, all while normalizing relations with Beijing

Can the United States sustain its gathering momentum in Asia? | East Asia Forum

USA – China

(Miles M. Evers – Lawfare) The U.S. position in the global value chain puts it at a disadvantage, and Washington’s confrontational policies are making things worse

Why the United States Is Losing the Tech War With China | Lawfare (


(Marina Yue Zhang – Lowy The Interpreter) Vietnam has recently emerged as a geopolitical hub, navigating the intricate power dynamics between the United States and China. The US president’s September 2023 visit to the Asian country, elevating bilateral relations to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”, symbolized the US vision of Vietnam as a potential ally to counterbalance China. At the same time, Vietnam has also strengthened its ties with Beijing, as seen in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit last month

Vietnam’s pivot | Lowy Institute


The Global Eye

Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)



The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

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