LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Central Asia
Daria Rekeda (Valdai Discussion Club) writes that, under geopolitical pressure, Central Asian states will seek to position themselves not as a collection of post-Soviet states but as a stable and promising region for interaction with the outside world
Central Asian Integration: An Impossible Puzzle? — Valdai Club
India
1 – Air Commodore SP Singh VSM (Retd) (Centre for Air Power Studies) writes that a contingent of the Indian Air Force (IAF) took part in the BRIGHT STAR-23 exercise, a biennial multilateral exercise which took place from 27 August to 16 September 2023 at Cairo Air Base in Egypt. The IAF took part in Ex BRIGHT STAR-23 for the first time along with contingents from the US, Saudi Arabia, Greece and Qatar. The exercise, led by the United States Central Command and hosted by the Egyptian military, involved 34 nations from around the world. It was held for the first time in the MENA region
Exercise Bright Star-23: Global Military Diplomacy at its Best – CAPS India
2 – Abhishek Sharma (Centre for Air Power Studies) writes that, following the Bletchley Park artificial intelligence meeting in the United Kingdom, the Global Partnership on AI summit, held from 12 to 14 December, marked another decisive point. The summit culminated with the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration. This meeting was instrumental in raising India’s standing in conversations on artificial intelligence. It is crucial to understand India’s approach to AI domestically and globally
India’s Bet on AI: Charting a Different Path – CAPS India
3 – Manpreet Sethi (Centre for Air Power Studies) writes that in 2023 India celebrated 25 years as a nuclear-armed country. To date, India does not appear to have any problems with nuclear weapons. There has been no visible change in the pace or nature of nuclear build-up, doctrine and strategy review. The country stands out as an example of nuclear stability, even as others are engaging in behavior that encourages arms race strategies, causing further security dilemmas
Nuclear India in 2023: Reflections for the Country and the World – CAPS India
Japan
Arnab Dasgupta (Manohar Parrikar Institute) writes that 2023 was an intense diplomatic year for Japan. Tokyo has had to adapt its foreign policy to the structural challenge posed by China and has also been called upon to demonstrate dexterity as a range of old and new territorial and ideological conflicts reignited in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Japan’s diplomacy in 2023 marks a significant turning point
Mongolia
Bolor Lkhaajav (East Asia Forum) writes that Mongolia’s exports depend for 90% on the extraction of natural resources. In October 2023, Mongolian President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh signed a historic agreement that paved the way for a $1.7 billion investment by French government-owned Orano Mining. The agreement allows Oran to create Mongolia’s first uranium mining and processing company
Mongolia’s mining partnerships extract foreign policy gold | East Asia Forum
Nagorno Karabakh
Jason Wahlang (Manohar Parrikar Institute) writes that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict continues to impact regional geopolitical, geoeconomic and strategic trends. The interests of major regional and extra-regional powers remain crucial in shaping the conflict. The events have undermined ongoing efforts to find sustainable peace in the South Caucasus region
Pacific
Kerryn Baker (East Asia Forum) writes that, in January 2023, Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, also president of the Pacific Islands Forum at the time, visited Kiribati, trying to convince the government not to leave the Forum. Kiribati President Taneti Maamau confirmed that the country will remain. This was an important moment after the Forum faced turbulence when five Micronesian states moved to exit in early 2021. Regional challenges remain
New sovereignties and old divisions shaping Pacific politics | East Asia Forum
Pakistan
Shalini Chawla (Centre for Air Power Studies) writes that, in a context of persistent uncertainty, the Election Commission of Pakistan has agreed to hold elections on 8 February 2024. Although Pakistan has proclaimed itself as a democratic state, the will of the people rarely it is reflected in the regime’s choices and internal policies. The continuous political crises in the country have always strengthened the military and its ability to control critical decision-making, in addition to its pervasive expansion in the economic field
2024 Elections in Pakistan: Play of Alliances and Dictated Democracy – CAPS India
Perspectives
1 – Experts from the Atlantic Council think tank examine five events that didn’t happen in 2023 and what they reveal about the world in 2024
Five things that did not happen in 2023 – Atlantic Council
2 – Council of Councils writes that, in 2024, global summits will continue to play a crucial role in bringing world leaders together to advance commitments and coordinate responses to major planetary issues. Many of the major summits in 2024 will seek to develop and implement ambitious goals, commitments and targets that have already been agreed. Growing geopolitical tensions threaten to scuttle these efforts just when they are needed most: will cooperation triumph? An analysis of the ten most important summits scheduled
3 – Crisis Group analyzes ten conflicts to watch in 2024
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024 | Crisis Group
Philippines
Jenny Balboa (East Asia Forum) writes that, after almost seven years of imprisonment, former Senator Leila De Lima was released on bail in November 2023. In her speech, she thanked the Marcos administration for respecting the rule of law. De Lima’s choice of words is not accidental. It was a strong statement to fuel the growing political divide between the Marcos and Duterte families
Cracks in the Marcos–Duterte political alliance | East Asia Forum
Tunisia
Crisis Group writes that, in addition to democratic decline, Tunisia is facing a serious economic crisis, worsened by foreign debt that it is struggling to repay. External actors should continue to put pressure on the government regarding human rights, while seeking ways to avoid worst-case scenarios (in particular, an IMF loan review)
Tunisia’s Challenge: Avoiding Default and Preserving Peace | Crisis Group
Nuovo Umanesimo / New Humanism (Marco Emanuele)
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. Un lavoro ‘tri-unitario’ / New humanism and peace. A ‘tri-unitary’ work
- Nuovo umanesimo e pace. Occorre spezzare il circolo vizioso del ri-vendicare / New humanism and peace. We need to break the vicious cycle of re-avenging
- Nuovo umanesimo, pace e la sfida dal ‘profondo’ / New humanism, peace and the challenge from ‘deep’
- Nuovo umanesimo. Un punto di svolta / New humanism. A turning point
- Per un ‘nuovo umanesimo’. Il nostro impegno / For a ‘new humanism’. Our commitment
La complessità e le giuste domande / Complexity and the right questions (Marzia Giglioli)
L’intelligenza artificiale e la sindrome Oppenheimer / Artificial intelligence and the Oppenheimer syndrome (Marzia Giglioli)
Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
