Geostrategic magazine (january 25, 2024)

LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY

 

The Global Eye

Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)

 

 

Daily from global think tanks and open sources

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

Americas

(Neil Melvin, Carlos Solar – RUSI) As the US electoral cycle ramps up, we consider how they may shape the security landscape of the Americas in years to come

Episode 68: Security Cooperation in the Americas | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

AUKUS

(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) The December AUKUS Defence Ministers meeting in San Francisco has reinforced the importance of advanced undersea warfare capabilities as a key element of the agreement’s Pillar 2. A particular focus was the role of autonomous systems at sea—on and under the waves—together with AI in responding to future undersea threats

Taking robots and AI to war at sea | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)

Bangladesh

(Harris Amjad, Lowy The Interpreter) An economically struggling Bangladesh could do without a stumbling ready-made garments sector – its largest export industry. However, the domestic and global political environments present severe hurdles for the country’s flagship industry in the upcoming year. A sluggish performance in this sector is likely to result in continued fiscal troubles for the newly returned government

The squeeze on Bangladesh’s garment industry | Lowy Institute

China

(Joseph Webster, Zoe Leung – Lowy The Interpreter) A worldwide scramble for energy supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has intensified China’s quest for energy security. The nation is doubling down on all forms of domestic energy generation – from coal to renewables – to lessen reliance on imports

Can China use offshore wind to break its reliance on foreign LNG and coal? | Lowy Institute

China – Russia

(Alla Hurska – The Jamestown Foundation) China has become Russia’s primary economic partner in helping the Kremlin circumvent Western sanctions, with bilateral trade turnover reaching $225 billion in 2023. Beijing’s supply of dual-use components and critical electronic equipment enhances Moscow’s defense production capabilities. Chinese banks play a key role in supporting the Russian banking system through increased investments in yuan

China Serves as Economic Lifeline to Sanctioned Russia – Jamestown

Climate Action 

(Barry Rabe – Brookings) Last month, the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Dubai, UAE, where participants confronted the fact that carbon dioxide is not the sole contributor to climate change. Short-lived climate pollutants, including methane, hydrofluorocarbons, and nitrous oxide, contribute to over 40% of current climate warming, but COP28 ended with a highly uneven set of domestic and global commitments. Overall, developing robust solutions to address these pollutants remains a missed opportunity for policymakers worldwide.

Addressing short-lived climate pollutants after COP28 | Brookings

Iran – Armenia – India

(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Iran has granted Armenia access to its Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports to facilitate Yerevan’s trade access to India. The proposed east-west transit route will serve as a supplemental component of the International North-South Transport Corridor in facilitating greater regional trade. Armenia has increasingly turned to India for defense cooperation and arms purchases in the wake of Yerevan’s falling out with Moscow

Armenia Plans to Use Iranian Ports to Reach India – Jamestown

Koreas

(Andrew Yeo – Brookings) Several troubling events have transpired on the Korean Peninsula in recent weeks, reflecting a breakdown in inter-Korean relations and raising the specter of conflict

On the brink: Why inter-Korean relations have reached a new low | Brookings

Myanmar

(Council on Foreign Relations) In late October, a coalition of three ethnic armed groups in Shan State launched a coordinated offensive against the ruling military junta, posing the strongest challenge to its rule since the February 2021 coup

Civil War in Myanmar | Global Conflict Tracker (cfr.org)

Papua New Guinea

(Natasha Turia – Lowy The Interpreter) Papua New Guinea’s turmoil isn’t over. A vote of no confidence hangs over Prime Minister James Marape, with an imminent challenge to his position expected on the floor of parliament. It comes just over a fortnight after riots shook the capital on 10 January – dubbed Black Wednesday – which saw major retail shops looted and burnt across Port Moresby

Practical steps to alleviate Papua New Guinea’s unemployment crisis | Lowy Institute

Russia

1 – (William Alberque – Defense News) Nuclear threats have been a regular feature of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s discourse since even before he was president

An unprepared West contemplates threat of Russia’s nonstrategic nukes (defensenews.com)

2 – (Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Mass protests in Bashkortostan featured calls for the independence of the Middle Volga republic and have shattered the image that Russia is united behind Putin. These events have convinced Bashkirs and other non-Russians that their time is coming, and Kyiv believes that the non-Russian peoples will act soon enough to affect the course of Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The demonstrations have sparked fears in the Kremlin and prompted some Russian nationalists to arm themselves to put down any non-Russian actions

Bashkir Protests Sending Shockwaves Across Russia and Beyond – Jamestown

Russia – Ukraine

1 – (Oleksandr V Danylyuk – RUSI) Given the difficulties facing the US and EU in securing buy-in for the latest round of assistance to Ukraine, it is worth considering the consequences that a Russian victory would entail

What Ukraine’s Defeat Would Mean for the US, Europe and the World | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)

2 – (Pavlo Zhovnirenko – Atlantic Council) Amid mounting concerns over the future of Western military aid for Ukraine, it is worth stressing that Ukrainians remain sincerely grateful for the international support their country has already received over the past two years. At the same time, it is also important to underline the contributions Ukraine itself has made, and continues to make, toward European security

No European security without Ukrainian victory – Atlantic Council

Space

(Timiebi Aganaba – CIGI) As the space domain grows more accessible via new technologies and less costly access to Earth’s orbit, small and developing countries and private actors are transforming this ecosystem. The United States is leading the charge, fostering the development of so-called new space through contracting and public-private partnerships for commercial launches and other technologies

Only Effective Space Governance Can Prevent Future Conflict – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)

 

The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

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