Geostrategic magazine (january 4, 2024)


Daily from global think tanks

(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)

China – Japan – South Korea

Ryosuke Hanada (East Asia Forum) writes that the trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea (CJK), held in Busan, South Korea, on November 26, 2023 (for the first time since August 2019), indicates a shift in the “two-for-one logic” of trilateral relations. The Yoon Suk-yeol administration decided to host the CJK meeting in the context of reconciliation with Tokyo and rapprochement between Washington and Beijing

CJK yields Japan–South Korea engagement with China | East Asia Forum

China – Taiwan 

Lev Nachman, Wen-Ti Sung (Atlantic Council) write that, on December 21, Beijing unilaterally declared that it would soon end preferential tariff conditions for some Taiwanese exports to China. Hardest hit are Taiwan’s chemical exports, including those of paraxylene, a chemical used to create polyester. Taiwanese officials called Beijing’s announcement “typical economic coercion”: Authors say Beijing’s move is unusual

Why Beijing’s latest pre-election attempt to coerce Taiwanese voters could backfire – Atlantic Council

Democratic Republic of Congo

Ben Shepherd (Chatham House) writes that the provisional results of the 2023 elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo have been announced. These results indicate the victory of incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi. He has 73% of the votes and 85% of the votes counted

The DRC’s election was a halting step towards embedding democracy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank


David Marsh (Atlantic Council) writes about the imprint left by Jacques Delors and Wolfgang Schäuble on European politics

Delors and Schäuble leave melancholic legacies for Europe. Now no one is left in charge. – Atlantic Council

Gulf States – USA

Joze Pelayo (Atlantic Council) writes that, in 2023, the annual tennis tournament colloquially called the Washington Open has been renamed the Mubadala Citi DC Open thanks to sponsorship from the Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Investment Company

Gulf states are vying for sports fans’ hearts and minds—one sovereign wealth fund at a time – Atlantic Council

Hong Kong 

Vera Yuen (East Asia Forum) writes that Hong Kong, after the pandemic, presents various difficulties from an economic point of view. Private consumption continued to grow during the year but imports and exports remained weak. Capital investment and tourism have also been lackluster. About nine months after reopening, visitor arrivals were just 65% of their 2018 level. Hong Kong’s financial markets are in a similarly challenging position

Hong Kong’s economy struggles to get back on its feet | East Asia Forum

Israel – Russia

Georgy Poroskoun, Yaron Gamburg (INSS) writes that Israel’s position regarding the war in Ukraine represents a permanent dilemma, partly due to the connection the US administration sees between the Israel-Hamas war and Ukraine’s confrontation with Russia, as well as Washington’s efforts to provide economic and military aid to both Israel and Kiev. Israel’s neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, in the face of Moscow’s long-standing pro-Palestinian stance, signals to Russia that it can continue to ignore Israeli interests and, at the same time, does not help the United States help Israel. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine Israel’s position towards Russia

Changing Israel’s Policy on Russia and Ukraine | INSS

Latin America

Will Freeman (Council on Foreign Relations) writes, starting from the early release of Alberto Fujimori, how – in Latin America – the boundary between governments and crime is becoming increasingly blurred

The Organized Crime Threat to Latin American Democracies | Council on Foreign Relations (

Near East

1 – More than three months into the war against Hamas, IDF forces are intensifying fighting in the Gaza Strip. In the north, Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at Israeli military and civilian targets, but this activity currently remains below the war threshold. On other fronts, the Houthis in Yemen and the Iranians have interfered with merchant ships in the Red Sea, and arms smuggling from Syria to Jordan continues. Furthermore, more than 120 Israelis (men and women, children, elderly people and soldiers) remain prisoners of Hamas. Adi Kantor and Chuck Freilich (INSS) discuss what’s next

The “Day After” in Gaza: Will Israel and the US Agree to Disagree? | INSS

2 – Orna Mizrahi (INSS) writes that the escalation of IDF military activity in southern Lebanon in recent weeks, which has caused extensive damage to Hezbollah’s assets, as well as residents of the Lebanese villages from which the organization operates, has presented Nasrallah with a dilemma over the nature of the continuing fighting against the IDF on the Lebanese border. The killing of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri and six other Hamas operatives in Beirut compounds the dilemma

The Killing of al-Arouri in Beirut Intensifies Nasrallah’s Dilemma | INSS

3 – Bilal Y. Saab (Chatham House) writes that attacks in recent weeks by Yemen’s Houthis against ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have increased calls in Washington for a strong U.S. military response directed against Iranian proxies – and against Iran itself

US deterrence against Iran is damaged but not dead | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

Russia – Ukraine

Peter Dickinson (Atlantic Council) writes that, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Russia launched at least 500 missiles and drones at targets across Ukraine during five days starting December 29, in what was seen as an indication of the Kremlin’s intentions for the coming weeks

Ukraine needs urgent air defense aid as Putin launches bombing campaign – Atlantic Council

South China Sea

Nian Peng (East Asia Forum) writes that, on November 20, 2023, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said that the Philippines had approached neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia to come up with a separate “code of conduct” in the South China Sea

Marcos’ new code of conduct for the South China Sea is a non-starter | East Asia Forum


Min-Hua Chiang (East Asia Forum) writes that Taiwan’s GDP growth fell to 1.4% in 2023, down from 2.6% the previous year and 6.6% in 2021. The economic slowdown raises questions about the future. The economic deceleration in 2023 is mainly due to weak global demand and weak domestic capital investment. However, post-COVID-19 private consumption has thrived

Taiwan’s slowing growth and national security | East Asia Forum


Paul Chambers (East Asia Forum) writes that 2023 was an important year for Thai politics. General elections ousted the pro-military government, replacing it with a coalition led by a major opposition party. But the coalition – which includes pro-military parties – governs under a powerful monarchy and alongside a Constitutional Court and Senate both appointed by the 2014-2019 junta. In 2023, Thailand teeters between competitive authoritarianism and defective democracy

Defective democracy defines Thailand’s political future | East Asia Forum

USA – China

Scott Kennedy (CSIS) writes that, from 2018 to 2023, US-China relations experienced a linear downward spiral

U.S.-China Relations in 2024: Managing Competition without Conflict (

USA – Taiwan

Erin L. Murphy (CSIS) writes that the United States, partners, and allies are seeking to build frameworks for current and emerging technologies, particularly digital trade. Taiwan is crucial for Washington in the Indo-Pacific. The United States and Taiwan have a strong economic relationship, with the United States as Taiwan’s second-largest trading partner and Taiwan as the United States’ eighth-largest trading partner

The United States and Taiwan’s Role in Digital Trade in the Indo-Pacific (


The Global Eye

Nuovo Umanesimo / New Humanism (Marco Emanuele)



The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)

Latest articles

Related articles