LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Africa
Prithvi Gupta (ORF) writes that Africa has increasingly emerged as a theater of growing geopolitical contestation. As a largely unexplored continent, African nations have mineral mines and energy sources, many of which are critical to the green transition. It is not surprising that major powers such as the United States, the European Union, China, India, Japan and Australia are intensifying their collaboration with African countries and investing in the exploration of these resources through infrastructure and development projects. connectivity. In 2022 and 2023, China ($10 billion), the EU ($164.98 billion), the United States ($55 billion) and Japan ($30 billion) allocated large sums of aid to improve regional connectivity in Africa
The Global Gateway in Africa: Europe’s foray into infrastructure diplomacy (orfonline.org)
Artificial Intelligence
(Ngaire Woods – ASPI The Strategist) More than 70 national elections are scheduled for 2024, including those in eight of the ten most populous countries. Women risk being underrepresented. One of the main reasons is the disproportionate amount of abuse women politicians receive online, including threats of rape and violence. Artificial intelligence, which can be used to create sexually explicit deepfakes, only exacerbates the problem
Saving representative democracy from online trolls | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Bruce Schneier (Belfer Center) writes that artificial intelligence can help eliminate the human limitations inherent in many systems. One of these limitations is logistical and informational ‘bottlenecks’ in the decision-making process
Bay of Bengal
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury, Harsh V, Pant (Observer Research Foundation) write that, spread across 2,173,000 square km, the Bay of Bengal is now once again gaining importance as part of a strategic maritime space. The Bay’s rich deposit of vast hydrocarbon reserves and the vital shipping routes for oil and natural gas trade that pass through this region have transformed this marine space into a geostrategic, geopolitical and geoeconomic hotspot. Treating the Bay as a common strategic space and an area for sharing resources between the powers involved remains a crucial point to consider. The Bay’s enormous deposit of vital resources has contributed to the ability of regional powers to influence this area. These dynamics of change are particularly relevant for India and China, whose growing economies depend on the constant flow of resources, especially oil
Anchoring the Bay of Bengal in a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (orfonline.org)
Climate Action
Sarah Brown Syra Madad Saad Amer (Belfer Center) write that climate change is not just an environmental issue: it is a global health crisis. COP28 recognized this by introducing the inaugural “Health Day,” integrating a crucial health perspective into the global climate dialogue. The groundbreaking “UAE COP28 Declaration on Climate and Health”, endorsed by 124 countries, highlights the urgent need to strengthen health systems against climate-induced challenges, ranging from infectious diseases and air pollution to heat extreme
Hong Kong
Eric Lai (East Asia Forum) writes that, in October 2023, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu announced that the government would introduce its own local national security legislation
Will Hong Kong’s National Security Law safeguard or harm its citizens? | East Asia Forum
India
Ayjaz Wani (Observer Research Foundation) writes that, since 2019, India has been strengthening multimodal connectivity infrastructure in the Kashmir Valley and Ladakh, following Chinese belligerence along the Line of Actual Control and in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Most of the projects, including Chenab Bridge, T49 Rail Tunnel and Zojila Tunnel are a testament to New Delhi’s commitment to the strategic area
Developing all-weather strategic connectivity to Kashmir and Ladakh (orfonline.org)
India – Russia
Arvind Gupta (Vivekananda International Foundation) writes on India-Russia relations, highlighting the strength and resilience of these ties amid geopolitical turmoil
A New Trajectory for India-Russia Relations (sputniknews.in)
Near East
1 – Derek Lief, Yulia Erport, Inbar Noy-Freifeld (INSS) write that, following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, at least 211 companies released statements condemning the attack, including Starbucks. A week later, Starbucks sued the workers’ union over a post on X (formerly Twitter) that stated “Solidarity with Palestine!”. Starbucks argued that the post caused confusion, upset customers and damaged its reputation
Does Support for Israel Negatively Affect American Companies? | INSS
2 – Ariel Heimann (INSS) writes that Israeli reserve forces have been mobilized for three months. Their ability to continue to serve is based on the spirit of the people, the atmosphere in the country after the events of October 7 and the moral and economic support of the home front. However, these elements may decline over time. Prolonged service creates emotional and practical difficulties for those serving, and it would be unreasonable to assume that reservists will be available to the IDF indefinitely and at full capacity
The Reserve Forces in the Gaza War: Challenges for the Continuation of the Fighting | INSS
3 – Tobias Borck (RUSI) writes that Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza is dominating early 2024 in the Middle East, but the consequences of the war will also affect the region once the fighting ends
In Gaza’s Shadow: The Middle East in 2024 | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
4 – (Shlomo Ben-Ami – ASPI The Strategist) Last week, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled on two major bills pushed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government as part of its judicial reform
A reprieve for Israel’s democracy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Russia – Ukraine
(Mike Kofman, Shashank Joshi – Center for a New American Security) In late 2023, many people began to view the war in Ukraine as a stalemate. Both Moscow and Kiev are working to rebuild their offensive capability. Developments this year regarding both sides’ access to munitions, ability to train fighters and the scale of the war’s casualties will be critical in shaping the long-term trajectory of the conflict
Taiwan
1 – T.Y. Wang (East Asia Forum) writes that, on January 13, 2024, Taiwanese citizens will elect the next president. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), will not run due to term limits. Two opposition parties have attempted to form an alliance to oust the ruling DPP. But the plan failed due to disagreements over who would lead the list as presidential candidate. With the subsequent withdrawal of Terry Gou – the billionaire founder of tech giant Foxconn – from the presidential race, Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election is a three-way race
The China factor seemingly less significant in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election | East Asia Forum
2 – Chung-min Tsai, Yves Tiberghien (East Asia Forum) write that Taiwan’s presidential and legislative election campaign has entered the final rush. The dominant features of the campaign so far are the stability and resilience of democratic and political processes, political convergence on key strategic issues between parties, and the focus on socioeconomic issues, not on competition in Asian geopolitics. Cross-Strait relations affect almost every aspect of Taiwan’s politics, but they are not the key issue
Taiwan’s democratic institutions the clear winner in this month’s elections | East Asia Forum
3 – Ben Bland (Chatham House) writes that while in an ideal world Taiwan’s national elections should have nothing to do with China or the United States, when polling stations open on January 13, relations between the two sides of the Strait and geopolitics will weigh on voters’ choices
USA – China
(Center for a New American Security) In December 2023, the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party released a report with over 150 recommendations for restoring U.S. economic relations with China
Nuovo Umanesimo / New Humanism (Marco Emanuele)
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Il G7 e la sfida della mediazione / The G7 and the challenge of mediation (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Medio Oriente: la guerra liquida del terrorismo / Middle East: the liquid war of terrorism (Carlo Rebecchi)
- Africa, in grande spolvero il mercato dei droni / Africa, the drone market is booming (Carlo Rebecchi)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
