LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
(Javid Ahmad – Middle East Institute) Since seizing control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the Taliban has appointed thousands of individuals to various political, military, administrative, and judicial positions across the country, occupying crucial roles as decision-makers, influencers, local enforcers, and implementers who help shape the Taliban government policies and actions.
Introducing the Taliban Leadership Tracker | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Australia – China
(Andrew Forrest – ASPI The Strategist) Whatever diplomatic niceties were exchanged during Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia this week, China wants to undo the established liberal order and impose a different order on the region. This new order would, at best, significantly curtail Australia’s decision-making capacity on issues directly impacting our sovereignty.
Biodiversity
(Overseas Development Institute) In 2022, signatories to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) committed to provide at least $20 billion a year to restore biodiversity in developing nations by 2025. Just one year out, we are far from achieving this goal. With 55% of global GDP depending on high-functioning biodiversity and a quarter of known species globally facing extinction, the stakes for both people and planet are astronomically high.
Canada – IRGC
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Canada’s federal government designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on June 19 as a terrorist organization pursuant to the Criminal Code. The move comes after years of pressure from Canada’s parliament, opposition, and Iranian diaspora, which have repeatedly highlighted the IRGC’s longstanding role in fomenting international terrorism, including against Canadians. The move follows last month’s unanimous passage by Canada’s House of Commons of a motion calling on the government to make the designation.
Canada Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization (fdd.org)
China
(Juliana Suess – RUSI) The Chinese spaceplane Shenlong has carried out a number of close-proximity manoeuvres since launching in December 2023. This is consistent with wider patterns observed of Chinese space assets, as well as the country’s long-term ambitions for space.
China – Russia
(Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, Alexis A. Blanc, David Woodworth, Anthony Atler, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Mark Hvizda, Sale Lilly – RAND Corporation) In this report, the authors explore possible future cooperation scenarios in which the Russian Armed Forces and the People’s Liberation Army could operate together as coalition partners. The authors examine historical patterns of Russian and Chinese alliance behavior as well as current military-to-military engagements between these two militaries that include exercises, training events, such operational activities as joint maritime and air patrols, and high-level exchanges. Given these military engagement trends, three scenarios that illustrate how Russian and Chinese forces might operate together under different strategic and operational circumstances are then examined. These scenarios are then used to identify the prospects and pitfalls for future Russian and Chinese military cooperation in conflict and to explore implications for U.S. policymakers, commanders, and planners.
European Union
(Dimitar Bechev – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Not that long ago, enlargement was a second-order priority for the EU: never off the radar but never really a top agenda item either. Russia’s brutal war of aggression against Ukraine changed all that, almost at a stroke. EU leaders have embraced enlargement policy as a part of the union’s response, on a par with weapons deliveries to Kyiv and economic sanctions on Moscow. The twenty-seven-strong bloc has made decisions that few could have foreseen before the war began in 2022. In December 2023, the European Council resolved to open accession talks with Moldova and Ukraine and grant Georgia candidate country status. Bosnia and Herzegovina received an invitation to start accession negotiations three months later.
Can EU Enlargement Work? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Joely Virzi – Atlantic Council) Far-right parties across Europe made significant gains in the European Parliament elections that concluded June 9. But how these parties wield their newfound influence in Parliament remains an open question.
How the far right could shape the future of the European Parliament – Atlantic Council
(John Springford, Sander Tordoir, Lucas Resende Carvalho – Centre for European Reform) As its new legislators assemble following June’s European Parliament election, the EU is faced with major economic challenges. The European economy expanded at 2 to 3 per cent annually throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, but growth has never fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis. While Europe continues to rank highly on broader measures of well-being, its growth has fallen well behind that of the US. Boosting growth is vital for Europe to deal with high levels of public debt, demands for higher spending on defence in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine, investment needed to curb emissions, and a rapidly ageing population.
Why cities must drive growth in the EU’s single market | Centre for European Reform (cer.eu)
European Union – USA – China
(Zach Meyers, Sander Tordoir – Centre for European Reform) The US has been far more aggressive than the EU in constraining China. US leaders talk about having a “small yard with a high fence” with restrictions on trade and investment only in areas sensitive to national security. But as Washington tries to force the sale of TikTok, imposes new duties on Chinese electric vehicles, and tries to ban more chip-making exports to China, this line is becoming less plausible.
Can the EU hold back the great tech decoupling? | Centre for European Reform (cer.eu)
G7
(Council of Councils) Italy hosted the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Apulia on June 13-15, 2024. In this global perspective roundup, four experts reflect on the significant outcomes on policies defending Ukraine and a more assertive approach toward China, but also highlight the uncertainty of future accomplishments given domestic political turmoil in almost all G7 countries.
Hungary
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) – Budapest has long been concerned about the status and treatment of ethnic Hungarians living in neighboring countries and, most recently, has been more outspoken in defense of those Hungarians living in Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has elevated that defense to the point of brinksmanship, reflecting his own electoral needs and efforts to curry favor with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Orbán’s rhetoric and moves threaten to complicate EU accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova, though several compelling reasons highlight that he may change course if he concludes that his actions will hurt his hold on power.
ICC – Israel – Hamas
(Sarah Sawhney – Observer Research Foundation) The ICC’s consideration of arrest warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders highlights the complexities of achieving accountability in protracted conflicts.
ICC warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders: Challenges ahead (orfonline.org)
India – BRICS
(Aneesh Parnerkar – Observer Research Foundation) The expanded BRICS offers India opportunities to assert its global leadership, but it also poses certain geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges.
How does an expanded BRICS benefit India? (orfonline.org)
India – Quad
(Chietigj Bajpaee – Lowy The Interpreter) Just as India was marginalised from regional economic integration sweeping Asia after the end of the Cold War – with its exclusion from APEC (established in 1989), the ASEAN+3 (formed in 1997), the Chiang Mai currency swap agreement (in 1999) and its recent withdrawal from RCEP (in 2019) – so recent developments allude to India becoming a second-tier member of the evolving regional security architecture. The most recent evidence of this is the establishment of a new regional security grouping, nicknamed the “Squad” – comprising Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States – which raises questions on the future of the Quad of which India is a member.
Has India defanged the Quad? | Lowy Institute
Internally Displaced Persons
(Paula Gaviria Betancur – Overseas Development Institute) On this World Refugee Day, I would like to shed light on the human rights challenges faced by a specific group of forcibly displaced individuals – internally displaced persons (IDPs). Forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, disasters and other causes, their protection challenges echo those of refugees. Yet, unlike refugees, they have not crossed an international border, and primary responsibility for their protection and assistance lies with the national authorities.
Shining a light on the human rights challenges of Internally Displaced Persons | ODI: Think change
Iran
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) A new analysis by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, projects Iran will massively increase its ability to produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) at the heavily fortified Fordow enrichment plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on June 13 that Iran is installing nearly 1,400 new advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges at Fordow. Albright’s estimate, detailed in a Washington Post article, indicates that when complete, Fordow’s enrichment capacity will increase by 360 percent, enabling Tehran to produce WGU for up to five nuclear weapons in a single month.
Iran to Significantly Increase Nuclear Enrichment Plant’s Breakout Capability (fdd.org)
(Reza Parchizadeh – The Jamestown Foundation) Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19, renewing discussions over who will eventually succeed 85-year-old Supreme Leader Khamenei. While ostensibly benefitting Khameni’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, Raisi’s “hard landing” opens the door for Reformists and disaffected elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to join the struggle for power. To succeed, either group must secure both popular support within Iran and international legitimacy abroad, possibly by working together. Despite periods of nominal rule over the country in the past, the Reformists have failed to meaningfully change the regime. Their end goal is to maintain an Islamist oligarchy, albeit one that interferes less with the people’s personal lives. While their influence has declined since late 1990s, the Reformists are still active today. They rely on sympathetic political institutions, international media, and academic outlets in the West, who view them as a way to push the regime toward liberalization. In the past, several senior IRGC commanders have voiced public or private opposition to Khamenei and his regime’s behavior. While most of these figures have been marginalized or killed, they command outsized influence within the state’s institutions. Moreover, ultranationalist IRGC dissidents and monarchist émigrés led by Reza Pahlavi look to be building ties with one another. If these elements managed to take power, they would push back on Iranian people’s democratic aspirations, oppress Iran’s ethnic and religious minorities, and threaten the country’s neighbors.
‘Shadow Guards’ and Reformists: Factional Matrix Underlying Iranian Succession – Jamestown
Malaysia
(Peter Brian M. Wang, Rahul Mishra – Lowy The Interpreter) US-China competition resulting in economic and technological decoupling is motivating small and middle powers to create middle-ground alternatives. In that context, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has put forth a compelling proposition for countries seeking a “neutral and non-aligned location” amid the escalating US-China technology war: choose Malaysia for semiconductor production.
Malaysia: Pushing the chips in on neutrality | Lowy Institute
MENA Region
(Joy Arkeh, Amr Hamzawy – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Policy awareness about the challenges of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been on the rise, especially with Egypt hosting the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in 2022 and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) hosting COP28 in 2023. The previously dominant narrative in MENA public and political spaces—that addressing climate change is a luxury that cannot be attended to in countries facing constant turmoil—has receded. The devastating impacts of climate change, ranging from high temperatures and extreme weather events in the Middle East to declining water resources and eroded coastal land in North Africa, have imposed their urgency on both citizenries and polities.
Middle East and the Gulf
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) A Hamas commander from the terrorist organization’s elite Nukhba Force has been eliminated in an Israeli air strike in Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 20. Ahmed Hassan Salame Alsauarka “was a squad commander in the Nukhba Forces who participated in the massacres in southern Israel on October 7,” according to The Jerusalem Post. Moreover, Alsauarka was a Hamas sniper in the Beit Hanoun region who participated in multiple attacks on IDF soldiers. Alsauarka was located in Beit Hanoun after an extensive search, the IDF said. The Israeli military also released video footage of the strike on Alsauarka. He is one of numerous senior Hamas commanders to have been eliminated during the IDF’s response to the October 7 atrocities.
Top Hamas Terror Commander Eliminated in Gaza (fdd.org)
(Jonathan Schanzer, David Daoud – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Let’s not mince words: The Middle East is on the precipice of the most destructive war of the region’s modern history. This war did not begin on October 7. It actually began one day later, when Hezbollah, the most powerful proxy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, began attacking Israel. The Israelis, already on their back foot from the Hamas assault in the south of their country, struggled to gain equilibrium.
The Hezbollah Time Bomb Is Ticking (fdd.org)
NATO
(Atlantic Council) NATO’s Dutch tilt is official. After a seven-month campaign, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte received unanimous approval from all thirty-two NATO member states to become the Alliance’s next secretary general. Rutte won his last remaining necessary endorsement from Romania on Thursday. A staunch advocate of military aid for Ukraine with a political reputation as a conservative consensus-builder, Rutte will take office in early October after current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg steps down. How will Rutte navigate the war in Ukraine, efforts to bolster European security, and an upcoming US election with massive implications for the future of the Alliance?
North Korea
(Bruce W. Bennett – RAND Corporation) North Korea has signaled an escalation in its “balloon war” with South Korea over the past month, sending hundreds of inflatables southward with payloads of trash and manure. A worthy South Korean response could involve using balloons to deliver upbeat news and K-pop music deep into the North—not just blasting it over loudspeakers at the border.
Pakistan
(Zoha Waseem – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) In the aftermath of former prime minister Imran Khan’s arrest on May 9, 2023, an unprecedented wave of anger poured forth onto Pakistan’s streets directed primarily at the military, the country’s most powerful institution. Thousands of protesters and dissenters were arrested in its aftermath and charged with violating multiple laws—including the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), the Maintenance of Public Order Ordinance (MPO), and the Official Secrets Act. After months of intensive policing, surveillance, intimidation, and incarceration, many were released because of a lack of evidence, while others remained in custody and were subjected to harsh legal processes, including trials in military courts.
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Defense Ministry has seen numerous new appointments over the past few months, including the May appointment of new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and the replacement of ten of 12 deputy defense ministers. These replacements are erratic and are rife with nepotism and appointees without any real defense experience, likely as a way for Belousov to improve his communications within the Russian inter-agency environment through his new appointees’ connections. The new appointments have increased the number of deputy ministers connected to the Federal Security Service in the Defense Ministry, allowing the organization to exert more control over the ministry’s actions.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s Team Sees New Players – Jamestown
Russia – North Korea
(Eugene Rumer – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Twenty-four years ago, in July 2000, newly elected Russian President Vladimir Putin was greeted at the G8 summit in Nago, Japan, with a mixture of excitement and disbelief. On the way there, he stopped in Pyongyang and announced a would-be major breakthrough in arms control: the then-leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Il, had told him that North Korea was not interested in developing its own ballistic missile capability and would be content to use “exclusively” rockets from other countries “for peaceful exploration of space.” A month later, Kim made a mockery of Putin’s claim by announcing that what he had told the Russian leader was a joke.
Putin and Kim’s New Friendship Shouldn’t Be a Surprise – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Victor Cha, Ellen Kim – CSIS) In the early hours of Wednesday morning on June 20 (KST), Russian president Vladimir Putin arrived in Pyongyang for his summit meeting with Kim Jong-un. This is his first visit to the country in 24 years, signaling the importance Putin places on his relationship with the North Korean leader during Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The Putin-Kim meeting came less than 10 months after their last meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Amur Region. During his one-day stay in Pyongyang, Putin received lavish treatment from Kim, including a personal reception at the airport, a welcome ceremony and open car parade at the Kim Il-sung Square, as well as mass chanting of his name by the North Korean people.
The New Russia-North Korea Security Alliance (csis.org)
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) TAIPEI, Taiwan—Watching Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Pyongyang summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un from the vantage point of this at-risk democracy’s capital makes the significance of the meeting all the more terrifying.
The troubling significance of Putin’s Pyongyang deal – Atlantic Council
Russia – Ukraine
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow’s latest offer to start talks with Kyiv amounts to a set of non-negotiable demands, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is redoubling his attempts to impose the settlement terms discussed in 2022, supplemented by several aggravating conditions. The Kremlin has de-recognized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and claims to seek legitimate and credible interlocutors in Kyiv, with Putin, in effect, claiming a role of arbitrating Ukraine’s constitutional setup. Russia seeks to force terms on Ukraine under the appearance of a consented surrender. Moscow wants Kyiv to accept those terms and begin the process of complying with them as preconditions to granting Ukraine a ceasefire.
Putin Doubles-Down on Non-Negotiable Terms on Ukraine – Jamestown
Southeast Asia
(Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, Jia Deng, Roland Rajah – Lowy Institute) The Southeast Asia Aid Map — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2023 — is a comprehensive database tracking official development finance (ODF) flows in Southeast Asia. This 2024 Key Findings report includes an analysis of Southeast Asia’s evolving development finance landscape and a series of profiles on each of the 11 Southeast Asian countries covered in the database.
Southeast Asia Aid Map 2024 – Key Findings Report | Lowy Institute
UK
(Tom Howe, Ben Wellings – Australian Institute for International Affairs) In an election campaign already marred by bad weather and unfortunate historical analogies, Rishi Sunak’s early departure from the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy was especially egregious. Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer has stirred the ranks in meetings with world leaders.
(Colin Chapman FAIIA – Australian Institute for International Affairs) In Britain, two men are vying for the votes of the British people at the general election on 4 July. For many, it is a peculiar choice.
UK – Rwanda
(Amanda Gray Meral, Dora Meredith – Overseas Development Institute) Just one day after the long-awaited agreement on the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum, 15 member states called for “complementary efforts” to tackle irregular migration and return people whose asylum claims fail. The letter, coordinated by Denmark, calls for processing of asylum claims in third countries and for “return hub mechanisms” so that people can be transferred to third countries pending final removal. While not referring to it directly, the UK government has interpreted this letter as an endorsement of its Rwanda plan. Admiration of the UK has also been expressed more directly: the Austrian Chancellor Nehammer, hailed the UK as a ‘pioneer’; Hungary has called the deportation plan ‘brave’ and a welcome antidote to the EU’s ‘political correctness’.
The cost of the UK’s Rwanda plan: lessons for EU member states | ODI: Think change
Ukraine
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Over the past two years, Ukraine has weathered Russian strikes on critical targets, and the intensity of Russian missile and air strikes could soon lead to the exhaustion of Ukraine’s missile stocks. As Ukraine’s stocks have dwindled, the effectiveness of air defense has dropped due to Russia’s freedom to carry out air strikes. The situation has changed dramatically as the fighting has intensified and Ukraine is receiving a great deal of Western aid, upon which the backbone of the army’s air defense capabilities have been formed.
The State of Ukrainian Air Defense (Part One) – Jamestown
(Crisis Group) Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories | Crisis Group
USA
(Samuel Garrett – Lowy The Interpreter) In his last months as president, Donald Trump signed an executive order with the potential to upend the modern US federal bureaucracy. Known as “Schedule F”, the order laid out sweeping plans to strip upwards of 50,000 public servants of civil service protections and convert them into easily fireable political appointees. Joe Biden repealed the executive order just days after taking office in 2021, but four years later, Schedule F is back in the headlines. In Trump’s bid for re-election, the reinstatement of Schedule F appointments has become a key part of his plan to “dismantle the Deep State”, and Trump-aligned organisations have pre-vetted thousands of candidates who could fill such positions.
Dictator on Day One? Trump’s grand plans for the federal bureaucracy | Lowy Institute
USA – Türkiye
(Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı – GMF) As the US presidential election approaches, an air of indifference prevails in Ankara. The US-Türkiye relationship has been deteriorating for at least a decade, and more than a few crises were averted in that time. Ankara expects no breakthrough in the relationship, regardless of the winner in November.
No Horse in The Race | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
