Categories
Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (november 3, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

  • (Future Development) Astha Kapoor and Bapu Vaitla, Brookings. Rising inequality and persistent social problems are forcing societies around the world to rethink dominant forms of economic organization. The most promising solution may be a tried-and-true one: cooperatives. Cooperatives are anchored in a set of globally agreed principles—open and voluntary membership; democratic member control; members’ economic participation; autonomy and independence; education, training and information; cooperation among cooperatives; and, most critically, concern for community. Data co-ops: How cooperative structures can support women’s empowerment
  • (Future Education) Emily Gustafsson-Wright, Sarah Osborne, and Muskan Aggarwal, Brookings. Real-time performance data in education enable critically needed tracking of program activities and instructors’ and learners’ progress to better inform adaptations along the way. In this report, we provide an overview of some of the key considerations related to real-time data collection in education, with a particular focus on the digital tools that enable their collection. Importantly, we have developed a typology of tools and selection criteria to support policymakers, practitioners, and researchers around the globe in either developing new tools or selecting from the landscape of existing ones. Our aim is to help initiate dialogue around the use of real-time data for adaptive management in education and contribute to data-informed decisions toward ensuring that all children have access to quality teaching and learning experiences. Digital tools for real-time data collection in education
  • (G20 – WTO) Jeffrey J. Schott, PIIE. In a prescient article published 50 years ago, the late Harvard professor Richard N. Cooper argued that trade policy is foreign policy. In the 1970s, in a shift from the hot war risks of the Cuban missile crisis of the previous decade, efforts were made to foster economic interdependence between adversaries: Richard Nixon went to China; Pepsi-Cola entered the market in the Soviet Union, initiating an era of “soft drink” power. Closer economic ties benefiting both sides would raise the cost of, and hopefully deter, military confrontation. The last decade of the 20th century seemed to validate Cooper’s thesis. How the G20 can advance WTO reform
  • (Health) Francis Annan and Belinda Archibong, Brookings. Mental health disorders account for a significant share of the overall global disease burden and translate into staggeringly large economic losses, particularly in low-income countries, where people are faced with several unexpected shocks. The value of communication for mental health
  • (Health & Innovation) Belinda Archibong and Francis Annan, Brookings.. The COVID-19 pandemic led to a 25 percent increase in the prevalence of mental disorders, particularly anxiety and depression globally according to a 2022 World Health Organization (WHO) reportHow can information and communication technology be leveraged to improve mental health?
  • (Space) Sarah KrepsAvishai Melamed, and Ray Jayawardhana, Brookings. The surprise launch of Sputnik 65 years ago, along with the Apollo moon landings, the two space shuttle disasters, and perhaps the movie Armageddon, may encapsulate the space age in our collective memory. But these events obscure a less dramatic, yet far more frequent, activity: near-daily commercial space launches. The American commercial space industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and in turn prompted global interest in replicating its successes. But as the recent failure of a Blue Origin New Shepard rocket demonstrates, moving beyond the longstanding “slow and steady” governmental approach into the Silicon Valley-inspired ethos of “fail fast, fail forward” brings new challenges. The proliferation of commercial space activity demands better coordination and stronger oversight to minimize technical accidents and political tensions. The promise and perils of the new space boom
  • (Strategies) Siemtje Möller, Atlantic Council. The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine is a turning point for Europe. I am a child of the post-Cold War order. Peace and prosperity in a united Europe were my reality, but those certainties no longer exist. A radical rethinking has begun, as we realize that there is no natural law protecting freedom. Europe’s systemic rivals will openly challenge the rules-based international order and our ways of life. German defense state secretary: What ‘Zeitenwende’ really means

WORLDS

  • (Belarus) Grigory Ioffe, The Jamestown Foundation. In the wake of caustic remarks directed by Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka toward former British Prime Minister Liz Truss (YouTube, October 22), the former Belarusian diplomat, now a political commentator in exile, Pavel Matsukevich was asked “if the election of a new British prime minister will somehow affect Belarus, or will it remain off the agenda?” The latter, replied Matsukevich, “Belarus … has never been the focus of British foreign policy. … This disregard is now exacerbated by a general trend of diminishing interest in Belarus in the West at large.” Simply put, Belarus has lost any hitherto remaining autonomy in the eyes of Western politicians. Furthermore, the country has lost the achievements for which it once could be proud. For example, its Hi-Tech Park, which used to attract eminent companies from all over the world, “has switched to the mode of exporting these same companies and software developers. … Young and active people, who might be the future of Belarus, are fleeing from it like a sinking ship” (Gazetaby.com, October 25). Counterintuitive Consequences of Western Disregard for Belarus
  • (China) Joseph Webster, William Tobin, Atlantic Council. China uneasily straddles both sides of the energy transition. On the one hand, China is indisputably a world leader in numerous clean energy technologies, including electric vehicles, renewable generation, and supply chains. On the other hand, it is also the world’s largest carbon emitter and coal producer, and is constructing over half of the world’s new coal-powered electricity plants. With Western-China tensions rising and Beijing increasingly focused on energy security, there is a shrinking scope for climate cooperation. Perversely, however, US-China political competition could deliver climate benefits, as both sides will face pressure to provide clean energy leadership at COP27 and beyond. China’s energy security realities and COP27 ambitions
  • (Hungary – Russia – Europe) Péter Fazekas, The Jamestown Foundation. On October 14, the Hungarian government and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán launched a nationwide survey regarding the European Union’s sanctions policy against Russia. The survey asked Hungarian citizens to share their opinions on the energy sanctions introduced by the European bloc in response to Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24. Orbán’s “national consultation” included seven questions on current and potential EU sanctions measures against Russian energy, including on the delivery of Russian oil, gas, raw materials and nuclear fuel to Europe; the Rosatom-built expansion of Hungary’s sole nuclear power plant in the city of Paks; as well as the overall impact of the restrictive measures on food prices, tourism and immigration (Portfolio.hu, October 14). Viktor Orbán’s Anti-Sanctions Campaign Sparks Fears of EU Disunity on Russia
  • (India – G20) CSIS. India’s Leadership of the G20
  • (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Iran is signaling its readiness to attack Saudi Arabia and possibly Erbil ostensibly in retaliation for the Shiraz terror attack but primarily for the alleged role of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia in stoking protests. Iran Crisis Update, November 2
  • (Israel) Shalom Lipner, Atlantic Council. Much of what can be said about Israel’s just-concluded fifth election since 2019 could have been said even before the various exit polls—which all awarded Benjamin Netanyahu’s cohort a slim majority—were broadcast at 10 PM on November 1. As the election fog clears, Netanyahu poised to ride a hungry, far-right tiger
  • (North Korea) Ellen Kim, CSIS. On November 2, 2022, North Korea fired 25 missiles of various kinds off its east and west coasts. One of the short-range ballistic missiles was launched in the direction of South Korea’s Ulleung Island, triggering the air raid alert. North Korea’s Missile Crossed the Northern Limit Line
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Russian force generation efforts combined with Western sanctions are having long-term damaging effects on the Russian economy, as ISW has previously forecasted. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 2
  • (Southern Africa) Jan Hofmeyr, Ndeapo Wolf, Deon Cloete, SAIIA. The digitisation of data – spurred on by the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) – presents the Southern African region with very real opportunities for developmental leapfrogging. SADC Futures of Digital Geopolitics: Towards African Digital Sovereignty
  • (Turkey – Armenia) Cavid Veliyev, The Jamestown Foundation. One of the most critical issues holding back peace and normalization in the South Caucasus is the fact that Turkish–Armenian relations have still not been normalized; that is, the borders between the two countries are closed, and official diplomatic relations have not been established. These diplomatic ties were not established after the collapse of the Soviet Union due to Armenia’s territorial claims against Turkey. Furthermore, in response to the Armenian occupation of Azerbaijan’s Kelbajar Province in 1993, Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in accordance with the United Nations treaty. However, after the liberation of some Azerbaijani lands from occupation in 2020, the Turkish-Armenian normalization process has gained momentum and made significant progress in a number of areas. One Critical Step Left for Turkish–Armenian Normalization
  • (Ukraine – Taiwan) Michael Druckman, Atlantic Council. The unintended consequences of Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine will be studied for years to come, with ongoing geopolitical repercussions already evident from North America to East Asia. Russia’s rapidly unraveling invasion has served as a warning to Putin’s ally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, as he mulls a possible attempt to retake Taiwan. Should Ukraine pursue closer ties with Taiwan?
  • (USA) Sono Shah, Samuel Bestvater, Pew Research Center. As Election Day draws closer, candidates for office at the federal, state and local level are competing for the support of the voting public both online and off. A new Pew Research Center analysis of more than 8,000 candidate Twitter accounts nationwide finds that the online campaign is in full swing. Since the start of the year, candidates for office at all levels of government have shared almost 3.4 million tweets, including nearly 14,000 tweets per day in October. What 2022 midterm candidates tweeted about at federal, state, local level
  • (USA) Christa N. Almonte, CFR. Legal immigrants and noncitizens—service members enriching the U.S. military since the American Revolution. Inspiration in the Ranks
  • (USA) Emmanuel ProussaloglouJoseph W. Kane, and Adie Tomer, Brookings. It was another blazing hot summer for many parts of the country. The intensity and duration of heat waves are reaching record highs, worsened by climate change. But it’s not just the presence of heat that is concerning; who and where this heat is affecting matters too. Data shows 23 million Americans live in places most at risk of extreme heat
  • (USA)  David L. Goldwyn and Andrea Clabough, Atlantic Council. For the Biden administration, it has been the best of times and the worst of times. On the one hand, the administration has delivered two of the most transformative legislative achievements on energy and climate in decades—the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) and the Democrat-led Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which represented over $300 billion in energy, climate and decarbonization expenditure. But the rapid post-pandemic recovery of energy demand and the illegal Russian war of aggression in Ukraine have also triggered the biggest global energy crisis since 1973, sending global energy prices soaring and accelerating inflationary pressure across the globe. The geopolitical ripples of the Russian invasion mean that highly volatile and unpredictable market developments will persist for months, if not years. US midterm elections, Part I: What’s at stake for energy and climate?
  • (USA – Canada) CSIS. U.S.-Canada Defense Partnership in a Dangerous World