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Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (november 6, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

  • (Digital Strategies) Apoorva Lalwani, ORF. The digital space is evolving fast. While we are still in an early stage of the digital revolution, the changes brought by it are not devoid of challenges, and thus, it is exceedingly important to discuss them. Data flow and privacy – India’s role as the G20 President
  • (Future of Energy) Jocelyn Trainer, United States Institute of Peace. For the first time, the International Energy Agency is reporting that global demand for fossil fuels will peak or plateau in the next decade as the world transitions to renewable energy. This is a welcome development ahead of the 27th U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP27), which includes a focus on the “promise of innovation and clean technologies” to mitigate the climate crisis. However, there is often a disconnect between the prospect of green technologies and the reality surrounding the minerals and materials required to produce them. The Geopolitics of Deep-Sea Mining and Green Technologies

WORLDS

  • (Afghanistan) Kate Bateman, United States Institute of Peace. The American war in Afghanistan incurred staggering costs — for the United States, Afghans and others — over two decades. The U.S. government spent $2.3 trillion, and the war led to the deaths of 2,324 U.S. military personnel, 3,917 U.S. contractors and 1,144 allied troops. For Afghans, the statistics are nearly unimaginable: 70,000 Afghan military and police deaths, 46,319 Afghan civilians (although that is likely a significant underestimation) and some 53,000 opposition fighters killed. Almost 67,000 other people were killed in Pakistan in relation to the Afghan war. In Afghanistan, Was a Loss Better than Peace?
  • (Brazil)
  • (Ecuador) Crisis Group. Ecuador’s proximity to major cocaine producers, dollarised economy and corruptible state institutions, as well as COVID-19’s devastating impact, have turned the country into Latin America’s latest hotbed of drug trafficking and other violent crime. Ecuador’s High Tide of Drug Violence
  • (Ethiopia’s Tigray) Chris Morris, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. A ceasefire between Ethiopian government forces and Tigrayan rebels brings optimism after years of fighting. With Peace Deal, Ethiopia and Tigray Rebels Acknowledge War’s Toll
  • (India – Africa) Abhishek Mishra, ORF. A fashionable trend in the last decade has been a surge in digital innovations and mobile phone ownership across developing nations, particularly in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries and India. Increasingly, countries are looking towards digital solutions and innovations to spur productivity and drive development. But, as a continent, Africa is yet to reach the same levels of digital maturity of other regions of the world in terms of digital penetration, usage, and capabilities. Africa still remains far behind much of the world in terms of its digital infrastructure. However, it is useful to acknowledge that despite being bound by geographical divisions, digital and emerging technologies can play a critical role in unifying the continent. Prospects of harnessing Indian experience in the digital revolution to support Africa’s development
  • (Iran) Dana Alexander Gray, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid may begin regularly instigating protests throughout Sistan and Baluchistan Province rather than in just Zahedan. Iran Crisis Update, November 5
  • (Iraq) Hamzeh Hadad, ECFR. Iraq finally has a new government. A little over a year since the parliamentary election and amid ongoing instability and violence, Mohammed al-Sudani – the preferred choice of the largest parliamentary bloc, the Shia Coordination Framework – was sworn in as prime minister last month, alongside 21 of 23 cabinet ministers. Sudani’s agenda centres on fighting corruption, creating economic opportunities, and improving public services. However, given his party’s near total dependence on larger coalition partners, the business of governing will not be straightforward. European policymakers should therefore manage their expectations of how much Iraq’s new government can achieve. Climate of opportunity: Iraq’s new government as regional conciliator
  • (Israel) Kabir Taneja, ORF. In what has become a frustrating cycle and often a topic of mockery amongst Israeli citizens, the country conducted its fifth general election in four years to, once again, try and choose a stable political leadership that can survive for the foreseeable future. Staying true to the twists and turns of Israeli politics, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved towards victory with his coalition of far-right politicians and parties even as accusations of corruption remain attached with his previous tenure in power as the country’s longest serving leader. Over the next few weeks, Netanyahu will have the hard task of stitching together a government that will have a good chance of surviving headwinds in the coming months. Netanyahu returns to power in Israel
  • (Latin America) Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Do victories for Lula in Brazil and fellow leftist leaders across Latin America represent a new “pink tide” sweeping the continent? Lula’s Victory and Latin America’s Leftward Shift
  • (Puerto Rico) Nicole Rapfogel, CAP. Already long underfunded, Puerto Rico will lose critical federal funding in December. Without Congressional Action, Puerto Rico Faces Severe Medicaid Funding Cuts
  • (Russia – Myanmar) Narayanan Ganesan, East Asia Forum. Myanmar’s coup leader and de facto head of state, General Min Aung Hlaing, has paid two visits to Russia in 2022. Such visits are the culmination of bilateral ties that have grown since 2014. Russian arms and influence in Myanmar
  • (Russia – Ukraine) , Business Insider. It did not annihilate any ships, but the aerial and seaborne drone assault on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet so angered the Kremlin that it briefly pulled out of a deal to protect grain shipments from Ukraine, in the process threatening food supplies to some of its few remaining allies.  Ukraine’s Drone Boats Mean Nowhere’s Safe for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Ankita Dutta, ORF. In its ninth month, Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine acquired a deadly nuclear overhang, as allegations flew thick and fast of the imminent use of a ‘dirty bomb’ in October. The Russian Defence Minister’s rare calls to NATO counterparts, as also to India, were only the latest episode of intense nuclear signalling that Russia has engaged in through the conflict. The nuclear rhetoric further complicates an already difficult situation, where attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline and the Crimean Bridge signified a new phase of warfare threatening energy and civilian infrastructure. As the conflict hurtles alarmingly into redder zones, credible peace plans and exit ramps are conspicuous by their absence. With the war now entering a winter of uncertainty, India will need to carefully weigh its options as the incoming chair of the G20 and UNSC, and recalibrate its policy towards the conflict. Three peculiar features of this conflict make it a particularly vexing challenge. Where is the clamour for getting Russia and Ukraine off the ramp?
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Angela Howard, and Mason Clark, ISW. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the concept of Russia’s historic unity. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5
  • (Russia – Ukraine – Europe) Gustav Gressel, ECFR. Last month, Russian cruise missiles and drones hit Ukrainian power stations and civilian infrastructure in a massive attack wave of 83 cruise missiles and 17 loitering munitions. The 10 October strike was the start of another strategic bombing campaign by Russia, targeting Ukraine’s electricity grid, water supply, and heating infrastructure. This campaign is still to let up. But it is aimed not only at Ukraine’s civilian population, attempting to wear down public support for military resistance; it also undermines what remains of Ukraine’s economy, making it difficult for Kyiv to resource the war. More tortoise, less hare: How Europeans can ramp up military supplies for Ukraine in the long war
  • (USA) Saraphin DhananiTyler McBrien, Lawfare. It’s a busy time for the national security business. Last week, the Justice Department publicly announced charges against 20 nationals from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including two PRC intelligence officers. Elsewhere in the Washington, progressive Democrat lawmakers sheepishly withdrew their letter calling on President Biden to urge Russia to impose a cease-fire in Ukraine, as GOP lawmakers suggested that aid to Ukraine should be pared down, both at a time when Russia has doubled down on its occupation of four regions of Ukraine through an illegal annexation, conducted nuclear drills, and brought the world eerily closer to nuclear annihilation. A Tale of Two Strategies: Comparing the Biden and Trump National Security Strategies
  • (USA) Allison Jordan, CAP. Hispanic and Latino communities are disproportionately at risk from rising rates of gun violence, but elected officials in these communities have so far failed to act. Gun Violence Has a Devastating Impact on Hispanic Communities
  • (USA) CAP. As voters in Portland, Maine, and Washington, D.C., prepare to head to the ballot box to decide whether to eliminate the subminimum wage for tipped workers, Justin Schweitzer explains why all workers—tipped and untipped—should be paid at least the state minimum wage. Ending the subminimum wage for tipped workers would benefit everyone
  • (USA) Sarah Millender, Auburn Bell, Jill Rosenthal, CAP. The Biden administration must institute stronger soot pollution standards to reverse inaction by Trump, strengthen public health, and protect environmental justice communities. Stronger Standards on Soot Pollution Are Critical for Public Health and Environmental Justice
  • (USA) Erin Simpson, Adam Conner, Ashleigh Maciolek, CAP. Social media companies continue to allow attacks on U.S. democracy to proliferate on their platforms, undermining election legitimacy, fueling hate and violence, and sowing chaos. Social Media and the 2022 Midterm Elections: Anticipating Online Threats to Democratic Legitimacy
  • (USA) Alan Cohen, CAP. Several minority leaders in Congress indicate that holding the debt limit hostage to force program cuts in Social Security and Medicare is part of their 2023 playbook. GOP Members of Congress Threaten Debt Limit Default To Cut Social Security and Medicare
  • (USA) Greta Bedekovics, CAP. Hurricane Ian was just the latest in a series of natural disasters and events that have disrupted elections; it’s past time we make elections climate resistant. Elections Must Be Secure and Accessible for All in the Wake of Natural Disasters and Events
  • (USA – China) Ina Fried, Axios. The new round of efforts to slow China’s access to semiconductor technology the U.S. announced last month went further than many people expected. And the Biden Administration isn’t slowing down, with more restrictions seen as likely. Tech industry squeezed by U.S.-China rift: “The music is going to stop”
  • (USA – Lebanon) Wilson Center. Lebanon faces a plethora of economic and political challenges amidst a difficult regional and global geopolitical context. On the economic front, the country is suffering from the rapid collapse of its economy, a severely devalued currency, high debt and rising poverty rates. On the political front, parliamentary elections that took place in May have yet to bring about significant change, as gridlock and infighting continue to impede presidential elections and block progress toward critical reforms. US Policy on Lebanon: A Conversation with Assistant Secretary of State for NEA Ambassador Barbara Leaf