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Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (october 22, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

WORLDS

  • (Argentina – IAEA) IAEA. The IAEA and Argentina signed two agreements to strengthen their cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear technology to improve access to cancer care in Latin America and to fight plastic pollution in the Antarctica. IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi and Santiago Cafiero, Argentina’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, International Trade and Worship, signed the agreements on Thursday in support of Rays of Hope and NUTEC Plastics, two IAEA initiatives. “Peaceful applications of nuclear technology have concrete benefits in the daily life of our society,” Mr Cafiero said. IAEA and Argentina Strengthen Cooperation to Improve Cancer Care and to Address Plastic Pollution in the Antarctica
  • (Brazil) Mario Parolari, Affari Internazionali. Il 30 settembre, il Consiglio di Sicurezza dell’Onu ha votato una bozza di risoluzione proposta da Stati Uniti e Albania che chiedeva l’invalidità e la condanna dei referendum di annessione alla Russia delle regioni di Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson e Zaporizhzhia. Organizzati senza l’approvazione di Kyiv in regioni in guerra prese con la forza, per il Segretario Generale Onu António Guterres i referendum hanno violato lo Statuto delle Nazioni Unite, rappresentando una “pericolosa escalation” nella già drammatica situazione russo-ucraina. La Russia ha usato il suo diritto di veto per affossare la risoluzione, che avrebbe imposto di ritirare le truppe dall’Ucraina. Nessuno dei 15 membri del Consiglio si è allineato al veto russo, ma quattro paesi si sono astenuti, tra cui il Brasile. Il paese guidato da Jair Bolsonaro, esponente di una destra sovranista e antiglobalista, ha assunto una posizione ambigua sulla guerra in Ucraina, smarcandosi dalle condanne occidentali, ma non abbracciando in toto l’opposizione promossa dai Brics. Questa incertezza è emersa nelle diverse votazioni all’Onu, sotto la costante pressione della campagna elettorale brasiliana. Il Brasile torna al voto diviso sulla politica estera
  • (ChinaCao Siqi and Fan Wei, Global Times. A new breakthrough has been made in the scientific research of the new generation of “artificial sun” in China with its HL-2M plasma current exceeding 1 million amperes, creating a new record for the operation of controllable nuclear fusion device in the country, the Global Times learned from Southwestern Institute of Physics under the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) on Thursday. Chinese ‘artificial sun’ marks new breakthrough
  • (China) Anushka Saxena, VIF. Loyalty, personal connections and familial ties (guanxi, 关系) are perhaps the defining element of Chinese elite politics. The Changing Nature of ‘Collective Leadership’ in Xi’s China Part II
  • (Egypt – India) Kabir Taneja. ORF. The Egypt visit of Indian External Affairs Minister marks a thaw in India-Egypt relations after years of being in the “deep freeze”. Renewing historical ties between Egypt and India
  • (Europe) Carlotta Mingardi, Rossella Borri, Pierangelo Isernia, Francesco Olmastroni, IAI. In questo rapporto vengono presentati i risultati di dodici focus group organizzati in sei paesi europei (Francia, Germania, Grecia, Italia, Polonia e Spagna) e che affrontano temi che di interesse per lo studio della politica estera e di difesa dell’Ue. In particolare, i partecipanti sono stati coinvolti in discussioni su tre temi principali: (1) le sfide internazionali più urgenti e il ruolo dell’Ue nell’affrontarle e nel rispondervi, (2) la guerra in Ucraina e (3) il punto di vista dei cittadini sul ruolo del loro paese in conflitti o crisi in cui è coinvolta l’Ue (l’Iran per francesi e polacchi; Serbia-Kosovo per tedeschi e greci, Libia per italiani e spagnoli). L’obiettivo di tale indagine era triplice: esplorativo, per capire come i partecipanti considerano una realtà complessa come quella relativa alla politica internazionale; interpretativo, per esplorare induttivamente le idee e i sentimenti dei partecipanti riguardo ai problemi in questo settore della politica; infine, costruttivo, per dare forma al progetto – su larga scala e transnazionale – di un’indagine dell’opinione pubblica sugli stessi temi da condurre a maggio 2023. Framing Public Perception of the Challenges to the EU Foreign Security and Defence Policy
  • (Forum Macao) Xinhua. The Forum for Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking countries (PSCs), also known as Forum Macao, has co-hosted events in the Macao Special Administrative Region (SAR) to facilitate cooperation between Chinese mainland provinces and PSCs. Forum Macao focuses on cooperation between mainland provinces, Portuguese-speaking countries
  • (India) S Gurumurthy, Chairman, VIF. On 19 October, during an in-house interaction, VIF Chairman, S Gurumurthy spoke at length on ‘India and the Changing World Order’. Currently serving as Central Board Director at Reserve Bank of India and editor of the Tamil political weekly, Thuglak, Mr. Swaminathan Gurumurthy, has been a powerful opinion maker in India on issues of national importance, particularly in the field of economics. In this talk, Mr. Gurumurthy Lays out the assumptions that formed the making of the post-Cold war world order, unsustainability of a heavily financialized global economy, etc. including how India can navigate the turmoil ahead. India and the Changing World Order
  • (India) Soumya Awasthi, The Jamestown Foundation. In April 2022, then al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released a video to incite Indian Muslims over the Karnataka hijab row (YouTube/India_Today, April 6; The Hindu, April 6). The video was released by al-Qaeda’s official media channel, al-Sahab, and called on India’s Muslims to oppose the Indian government. It was not simply routine propaganda, but also defused reports of al-Zawahiri’s death that had existed even before his actual death.  The Impact of Ayman al-Zawahiri’s Death on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism in India
  • (Indonesia) Krisna Gupta, East Asia Forum. Indonesia received a visit from some of the managers of Australia’s largest superannuation funds in August 2022. The target of the visit was the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA), Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. This development is welcome as both countries try to improve economic ties following the 2020 Indonesia–Australian Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA–CEPA). Leveraging Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund
  • (Iran)  Ray Takeyh, CFR. Many in Iran’s women-led protests are calling for the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and an end to the Islamic Republic. Here’s what to know about Iran’s top political and religious authority. Iran’s Protesters Want Khamenei Gone. Who Is Iran’s Supreme Leader?
  • (Iran) Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Johanna Moore, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The regime’s use of extreme violence against protesters in Sistan and Baluchistan Province is likely entrenching long-term frustration against the political establishment there. Iran Crisis Update, October 21
  • (Israel – Lebanon) Nello Del Gatto, Affari Internazionali. Dove non riescono la politica e la guerra, può l’economia. Potrebbe essere questa la sintesi che ha portato all’accordo sul gas tra Israele e Libano, siglato dai due paesi la settimana scorsa. Già, perché formalmente, ancora oggi, il paese dei cedri e quello della stella di Davide sono in guerra e non c’è mai stato un trattato di pace se non una tregua nel 2006 ancora in vigoreLa pax marittima tra Israele e Libano impone Tel Aviv come potenza energetica
  • (Italy) Tom Kington, Defense News. A new Italian government appointed on Friday has named Guido Crosetto as the country’s defense minister, marking a return to government for the 59 year old who served as a junior defense minister a decade ago. Veteran defense watcher takes Italian minister post
  • (Japan – Australia) Al Jazeera. Australia and Japan have agreed to share more intelligence and deepen military cooperation in what is being seen as a security pact aimed at countering China’s growing military presence in the Asia Pacific region. Japan, Australia leaders sign new security pact to counter China
  • (Koreas) Al Jazeera. Arrest warrants have been issued for South Korea’s former defence minister and coast guard chief over their alleged involvement in a cover-up related to North Korea’s killing of a South Korean fisheries official in 2020. S Korean officials face arrest over 2020 killing by North Korea
  • (Malaysia) IAEA. An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team said Malaysia was committed to improving its national nuclear security regime, including by strengthening coordination between relevant national authorities and by enhancing radiation detection capabilities at its borders.  IAEA Mission to Malaysia Finds Commitment to Nuclear Security, Encourages Training
  • (Pakistan – Afghanistan) Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The Jamestown Foundation. On July 30, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who replaced Osama bin Laden in 2011, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Afghanistan. U.S. President Joseph R. Biden announced his death on August 1 saying that, “Now justice has been delivered, and this terrorist leader is no more.” Originally an Egyptian surgeon, al-Zawahiri had a $25 million bounty on his head (Dawn, August 2). Al-Zawahiri’s Killing Raises Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan
  • (Pakistan – TTP) Abdul Basit, The Jamestown Foundation. Since the August U.S. drone strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri in Kabul, the Pakistani government’s peace talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, or “Pakistani Taliban”) have been suspended. The Afghan Taliban’s Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob further accused Pakistan of allowing the U.S. to use its airspace to conduct the drone attack (Dawn, August 29). Some Taliban leaders even went to the extent of alleging that the U.S. drones took off from Pakistani soil. In retaliation, the Taliban halted peace talk mediation between Pakistan and TTP. In the context of Pakistan’s deteriorating relationship with the Taliban in Kabul, this article examines the factors resulting in the suspension of the Pakistani government’s talks with the Taliban’s counterparts in Pakistan —the TTP.  The Impact of Ayman Zawahiri’s Killing on Pakistan-TTP Reconciliation Talks
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Michelangelo Freyrie, Affari Internazionali. Mentre l’opinione pubblica globale è ormai abituata all’idea che le Forze armate ucraine siano rifornite dai partner internazionali di Kyiv, l’arrivo nell’arsenale russo di droni di produzione iraniana e il loro utilizzo contro obiettivi civili ha provocato particolare scalpore.  I droni iraniani cambiano la guerra della Russia
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan, ISW. The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Atlantic Council. The DFRLab is continuing to monitor reports of Wagner Group activity in Ukraine, where the Kremlin-aligned private military company is assisting Russian forces in fighting and fortifying positions in the Donbas. A video posted on October 13 shows Russian servicemen of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet in the Kherson region complaining that they have been fighting in the area since the beginning of the war without relief or troop rotation. After the video circulated, a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel announced on October 14 that Wagner fighters would transfer vehicles to the 126th Coastal Defense Battalion in support of their efforts to hold the frontline in Kherson.  Russian War Report: Wagner sends vehicles to Kherson while Iran increases military support
  • (Saudi Arabia) Johannes KoettlAhmet Fatih Ortakaya, and Abdulelah A Alkharashi, Brookings. Social safety nets are designed to support the most vulnerable part of the population. They do so by providing cash benefits to the most unfortunate families and individuals in society—often people who, for various reasons, have no or diminished earning opportunities because of a disability, care duties, or insufficient skills. An important question is if some of these beneficiaries of social safety nets can be supported to find a foothold in the labor market through so-called activation or welfare-to-work programs. Social safety nets as a springboard for employment: How activation works and an example from Saudi Arabia
  • (Singapore) Gloria Lai, East Asia Forum. In October 2022, Singapore reportedly executed one person, bringing the total number of people executed in the city-state between March–October 2022 to 11. While the details of the reported 11th execution have not been made public, the 10 people who were executed earlier in the year were all sentenced to death after being convicted of drug trafficking. They were mostly of an ethnic minority background or Malaysian citizens. Singapore executes its war on drugs
  • (Syria) Munqeth Othman Agha, IAI. An integrated, whole-country reconstruction might never happen in Syria. Knowing this, the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran and Turkey have begun to test different approaches to implement their own reconstruction blueprints within areas they control. These plans are necessarily selective, and only target areas and sectors that serve these actors’ interests, gradually creating disjointed islands with varying degrees of stability and development across the war-torn country. The Selective Reconstruction of Syria
  • (UK)  Chen Qingqing and Zhang Hui, Global Times. The world is closely watching events in the UK following the dramatic resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss, who became the shortest-serving prime minister in the country, which not only rocked the British political scene but also raised concerns among UK’s major allies. Greater political, economic turmoil looms as Truss’ dramatic exit kicks off race for next PM
  • (USA) Susan J. PopkinAmanda HermansAlyse D. OnetoLauren FarrellMicaela ConneryAllie Cannington, Urban Institute. Millions of people living in the United States are feeling the effects of one of the worst affordable housing crises in a generation. But for the growing number of people with disabilities, finding and retaining quality housing they can afford is even more challenging. This group faces unique barriers related to housing affordability, accessibility, and the ability to receive supportive services in their own homes. To further explore how disabled people experience housing barriers, the Urban Institute, in partnership with The Kelsey, analyzed the 2021 Current Population Survey (CPS). According to this analysis, about 12 percent of US residents ages 15 and older live with a disability, or about 39 million people across 32 million households. People with Disabilities Living in the US Face Urgent Barriers to Housing
  • (USA) Samantha FuJames Ladi WilliamsAnna Shipp, Urban Institute. Created through President Biden’s Executive Order 14008, “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” Justice40 is an initiative of the federal government that aims to deliver 40 percent of the benefits of certain federal investments to communities identified as “disadvantaged” based on factors such as exposure to pollution and other environmental hazards, vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, and levels of socioeconomic distress. Advancing Equity, Climate Action, and Economic Health in Communities
  • (USA) Erica Chenoweth, Zoe Marks, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Many groups in the US are focused on preventing the further rise of authoritarian forces by raising alarms about authoritarian power-grabs in key states; by building financial, legal, and electoral strategies to advocate for democratic practices and outcomes in state and national politics; and by scenario-planning responses to contested election outcomes in 2022 and 2024. This urgent and important work must continue and intensify in the coming months. This report aims to expand the conversation to also prepare for effective organizing and mobilizing in the aftermath of a nationwide authoritarian transition, should one occur after the 2024 election. This report proposes nonviolent resistance strategies and support systems that could be relevant for protecting local communities and subjugated groups, and for informing a broad-based pro-democracy struggle under a hypothetical authoritarian administration. We suggest some immediate investments in infrastructure that could support effective pro-democracy organizing and mobilizing, both today and in the event of authoritarian decline or consolidation across all branches of government.  Pro-democracy Organizing against Autocracy in the United States: A Strategic Assessment & Recommendations
  • (USA) Grace ZandiNaomi Maehr, and Molly E. Reynolds, Brookings. With the 2022 midterm elections on the horizon, Democrats’ unified control of the House, Senate, and the presidency may be nearing its end. Investigations of the executive branch by House committees occur more often when the chamber is controlled by the opposite party from the White House. If Republicans take control of the House, then, what might we expect to see in terms of investigative trends? House oversight of the executive branch—What did the 116th and 117th Congresses spend their time on?
  • (USA – Russia) Al Jazeera. United States defence secretary Lloyd Austin has held a rare telephone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, with the Ukraine war featuring in the talks, according to the defence ministry from both countries. US, Russia defence chiefs discuss Ukraine war in rare phone call