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Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (october 24, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye

TOPICS

  • (COP 27) Romy Chevallier, Danielle Marais, South African Institute of International Affairs. Egypt will host the next UN Conference of Parties (COP) meeting in November 2022, making it an opportune moment for Africa to elevate its voice in global climate negotiations and try to advance its common priorities. Ensuring that COP27 is Truly an ‘African COP’
  • (Crisis Situations) Institute of Development Studies. This paper reviews the literature and documented evidence on capacity and coordination issues in crisis situations, where social protection and humanitarian assistance intersect. The paper finds that while there is a burgeoning literature that mentions capacity and coordination, very little of this focuses on crisis situations. Although both terms are mentioned frequently, they are rarely defined or robustly and systematically assessed. What is Known About Capacity and Coordination of Social Assistance Programmes in Crisis Situations?
  • (Global Health) , World Economic Forum. The development of new gene therapies designed to treat or cure a range of diseases is rising exponentially. Gene therapy can make a real impact on global health but we need equitable access, say experts
  • (Global Technology) , Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. In addition to dealing with the fallout from open warfare in eastern Europe, the world is witnessing the start of a full-scale economic war between the United States and China over technology. This conflict will be highly consequential and it is escalating rapidly. Earlier this month, the US Commerce Department introduced severe new restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductors and other US high-tech goods to China. While Russia has used missiles to try to cripple Ukraine’s energy and heating infrastructure, the US is now using export restrictions to curtail China’s military, intelligence and security services. The great chips war
  • (Supply Chains) Bindiya Vakil, World Economic Forum. Supply chain shortages are causing widespread manufacturing disruptions. Why a resilient supply chain means paying attention to every supplier

WORLDS

  • (Asia) Asia Society Policy Institute. Our planet’s future is at a critical juncture. The world must peak global emissions by 2025 and reduce them to net zero by the middle of the century to maintain a reasonable chance of achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, according to the latest science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This will require major transitions across all sectors of the economy to slash fossil fuel use, promote widespread electrification, switch to cleaner fuels, and improve overall efficiency. Building a Powerful and Coherent Vision for Net Zero in Asia
  • (China) Yan Qin, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen, Asia Society Policy Institute. China’s newly established national emissions trading system (ETS) is intended to serve as the primary tool in assisting China in meeting its “dual carbon” target of CO2 peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is the largest ETS globally, accounting for 40 percent of China’s CO2 emissions and more than 10 percent of worldwide emissions, with the potential to double its current size once industrial sectors are added.  China’s National ETS and the Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions
  • (China) , The Strategist. On Saturday, former Chinese Communist Party general secretary Hu Jintao was dramatically removed from the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, as the 20th party congress came to a close. Footage of the closing ceremony, recorded for the world’s media to see, showed two men escorting Hu from his seat as General Secretary Xi Jinping, directly next to him, looked on and offered no assistance. Was Xi behind Hu’s dramatic exit from the 20th CCP congress?
  • (India) Mohit Nair, Arathi Sethumadhavan, World Economic Forum. AI expenditure in India is expected to reach $11.78 billion by 2025 and is expected to add $1 trillion to India’s economy by 2035. AI in healthcare is India’s trillion-dollar opportunity
  • (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity) KANG Seonjou, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. During his inaugural visit to Asia in late May, US President Joe Biden officially launched the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity” (hereinafter “IPEF”) in Japan one day before the convening of the 2022 Quad Leaders’ Summit of Australia, India, Japan, and the US. The US first introduced the IPEF in October 2021 at the annual East Asia Summit hosted by Brunei and officially launched the Framework after seven months of preparation.  IFANS
  • (Iran) Kitaneh Fitzpatrick and Nicholas Carl, Institute for the Study of War. Iranian university and high school students are sustaining the momentum of the ongoing anti-regime protest movement, leading the demonstrations into their 37th consecutive day. Iran Crisis Update, October 23
  • (Malaysia) Azmil Tayeb, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Malaysia’s Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) appears to be undecided over whether to join forces with the United Malays National Organisation or Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia. Hesitation, however, is not indecision: PAS is hedging its bets for more leverage. PAS’s Election Gambit: Having it Both Ways?
  • (North Korea) HWANG Ildo, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. On September 8, 2022, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un used the second-day sitting of the 7th Session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) as a venue to announce his most significant update to the country’s nuclear weapons law in almost a decade: The Law on the DPRK’s Nuclear Forces Policy. The Assembly passed the new law in a unanimous vote, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency, and the Rodong Sinmun devoted four pages to carry Kim’s speech delivered on the same day. As noted in the speech, the passage of a new law is another attempt by the North Korean regime to ossify its nuclear war-fighting posture that has rapidly materialized since the Eighth Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party held in January 2021.  IFANS
  • (Philippines) Jason Vincent A. Cabañes, Fernando A. Santiago, Jr., Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. The Philippines is currently at the global cutting edge of fake news and political trolling online. Unfortunately, the country has yet to find firm footing in stemming disinformation’s unruly growth. Counter-Disinformation Beyond Fact-Checking: Insights from the Philippines
  • (Republic of Korea) SONG Jisun, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. President Yoon Suk Yeol delivered his first keynote speech at the United Nations (UN) at the 77th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York on September 20, 2022. President Yoon’s speech titled, “Freedom and Solidarity: Answers to the Watershed Moment,” marked a significant event as it declared the Korean government’s determination to show support and solidarity in advancing the universal values of freedom, human rights, and rule of law established within the UN system and international community, and to join international efforts to promote peace and prosperity for future generations.  IFANS
  • (Republic of Korea) KAVI Chongkittavorn, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. To mark the new leadership under President Yoon Suk-yeol, his government has recalibrated the Republic of Korea’s diplomatic compass. The ROK made a dual announcement that would enhance the country’s regional and international profile as never before. At the 55th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh, Foreign Minister Park Jin revealed that the ROK intended to become a comprehensive strategic partner (CSP) of ASEAN, with the official application being made at the upcoming 23rd ASEAN-ROK summit in November. The bold move came as ASEAN is scheduled to announce the establishment of the CSP of the United States and India. It also augurs well for ROK-ASEAN ties, with the country commemorating the 35th anniversary of its diplomatic relations with ASEAN in 2024.  IFANS
  • (Republic of Korea – China) KIM Han-kwon, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. The Republic of Korea and China established diplomatic relations on August 24, 1992, and this year marks the 30th anniversary of ROK-China diplomatic relations. IFANS
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Mason Clark, Institute for the Study of War. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely sought to slow or suspend Western military aid to Ukraine and possibly weaken the NATO alliance in scare-mongering calls with several NATO defense ministers on October 23. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23
  • (Thailand) Richard Yarrow, East Asia Forum. Southeast Asia’s second largest and once one of its most dynamic economies is struggling under the weight of an ageing population, a deteriorating education system and low yield rice farming. Thailand looks trapped as a middle-income country, unable to get rich, and stuck between a younger, dynamic Vietnam and larger Indonesia. Thailand’s economy stuck in the middle
  • (USA) KIM Hyun-wook, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security. The Biden administration’s goal spelled out in the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) is to create a free, open, prosperous, and secure international order. With the interconnected world facing a period of uncertainty, the 2022 NSS underscores that American leadership should emerge greater than ever to tackle daunting challenges on multiple fronts. The document outlines three lines of efforts to achieve this goal. To elaborate, it pledges to: 1) “invest in the underlying resources and tools of American power and influence; 2) build the strongest possible coalition of nations to enhance the U.S.’ collective influence to shape the global strategic environment and to solve shared challenges; and 3) modernize and strengthen the military so it is equipped for the era of strategic competition with major powers.”. IFANS
  • (USA) John Kachtik, The Interpreter. For Republicans in the US midterm elections next month, contests as divergent as Alaska and Florida, districts in California, or senate seats in South Dakota and Idaho will shape the party’s policy towards Asia. More than just Republicans versus Democrats, even the outcome of intra-party races will determine the shape of policies to come. US midterms: How Republican wins (or losses) could shape Asia policy
  • (Vietnam) , The Strategist. With China increasing the pressure both on land and at sea, Vietnam is facing a hard choice: should it continue its maritime tilt adopted since the early 2000s or should it pivot back to the land like it did throughout the Cold War years? Why Vietnam needs to pivot landward for its security