Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (october 25, 2022)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye



  • (Africa) Nick Charalambides, Chad Capon, SAIIA. One year into its implementation, the African Continental Free Trade Area holds much potential for the future of African cooperation and trade. Is the AfCFTA the ‘Game Changer’ for Africa?
  • (Australia) , The Strategist. In many Australian policy circles, nation-building is an archaic 1970s term—a throwback to a time when the federal government built infrastructure to encourage national prosperity. Today, cash-strapped federal, state, territory and local governments often have little choice but to adopt a just-in-time approach to capital infrastructure investment, but strains on budgets means that this looks increasingly like a whack-a-mole approach. The changing climatic, economic and national security risks Australia is facing are reason enough for governments to rethink their approach to nation-building and infrastructure, and to move beyond incrementalism. Budget must uphold funding needed to ensure Australia’s water security
  • (Australia – Israel) Dave Sharma, The Interpreter. The Labor government’s decision to formally withdraw Australian recognition of West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was the first foreign policy misstep of the Albanese government. After West Jerusalem shift, will Labor also turn on Israel at the UN?
  • (Australia – Israel – Palestine) Ben Scott, The Interpreter. The Albanese government’s reversal of its predecessor’s decision to formally recognise West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel accords with Australia’s sharpening interest in defending the rules-based order and growing focus on Southeast Asia. But the shifts­ – in both directions – mean less than many commentators assume. Jerusalem, the rules-based order and deal-making
  • (Australia – USA – China) James Laurenceson, The Interpreter. Australia’s interest won’t be served by supporting US efforts
    to build a high fence around China’s technology industry. Where the chips fall: in containing China, the US can leave Australia out
  • (China) Mary E. Lovely, Tianlei Huang, Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Chinese government waited until after the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress was concluded on October 22 before releasing the latest statistics on economic growth. Perhaps that was no accident. China has few options to revive lagging economic growth
  • (China) Ian Johnson, Council on Foreign Relations. The recently concluded Chinese Communist Party congress seems like a clean sweep for Chinese leader Xi Jinping: he achieved a precedented third term as head of the party—and thus as ruler of China—and he forced out potential rivals by elevating people presumed to be his allies. Xi Jinping Exposed
  • (Iran) Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Zachary Coles, Johanna Moore, Dana Alexander Gray, Amin Soltani, Nicholas Carl, and Frederick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. Some Iranian social media users are invoking the November 2019 gasoline protests as the ongoing, anti-regime protests enter the Persian calendar month of Aban (October 23-November 21, 2022). Iran Crisis Update, October 24
  • (Israel – Germany) Seth J. Frantzman, Defense News. Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and German sensor specialist Hensoldt have teamed up to develop a new electronic-warfare capability for the German Air Force, the companies announced last week. Rafael, Hensoldt to fuse electronic-warfare kit on German Typhoon jets
  • (Israel – Lebanon) INSS. Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer explain what each side achieves from this agreement, and how it is expected to affect the future of relations between Israel and Lebanon, and in particular the relationship between Israel and Hezbollah, against the background of Nasrallah’s threats against Israel and the launch of drones toward the Karish gas field this past July. What are the factors that contributed to reaching an agreement at the current time? What is the role of the United States in this agreement? Can this agreement actually prevent an escalation of the military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah? What can we understand from the kinetic campaign (i.e., the launch of drones toward Karish), as well as the cognitive campaign that Hezbollah launched during the negotiations on the agreement? In the long term, does this agreement help maintain the balance of deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah, or encourage Hezbollah to provoke Israel more in the future, perhaps eventually leading to a military confrontation? The Maritime Border Agreement: What Israel and Lebanon Gain, and Hezbollah’s Position
  • (Japan – Australia) , The Strategist. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Perth to meet with his Australian counterpart, Anthony Albanese, at the weekend. It was the pair’s fourth in-person meeting this year. Kishida–Albanese meeting shows Japan’s diplomacy is outpacing its domestic politics
  • (Koreas) Gabriela Bernal, The Interpreter. Tensions have been rising rapidly on the Korean Peninsula over the past few weeks. Military drills involving South Korea, the United States and Japan were met with strong retaliation by North Korea, which has continued through various armed provocations. The situation reached a dangerous new level on Monday morning, when North and South Korean ships exchanged fire. The Korean Peninsula still poses major risks
  • (Russia) Edward Graham, Defense One. International sanctions and export controls imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have hampered the country’s access to critical technologies needed for its advanced weapons, leading Moscow to pursue closer ties to China and placing a greater emphasis on its nuclear capabilities, according to a report released Friday by the Center for a New American Security think tank.  Sanctions May Push Russia into ‘Technological Regress’
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, Grace Mappes, Angela Howard, and Fredrick W. Kagan, Institute for the Study of War. The Kremlin intensified its information operation to accuse Ukraine of preparing to conduct a false-flag attack using a dirty bomb for a second day in a row on October 24. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24
  • (Russia – Ukraine – NATO) Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic and International Studies. There is no way as yet to know how the war in Ukraine will end, or even whether it will end or linger on at low levels or in the form of an uncertain ceasefire. What does seem all too predictable is that NATO will face a continuing and far more aggressive challenge from NATO as long as Putin is in power. NATO Force Planning and the Impact of the Ukraine War
  • (Turkey) Burak Ege Bekdil, Defense News.  Turkish engineering company Titra has been picked to receive government subsidies for its ambition to produce the country’s first unmanned helicopter, the Alpin. Turkish firm developing country’s first unmanned helicopter
  • (Turkey – Ethiopia) , The Strategist. As NATO has pulled together in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkey, the ‘black sheep’ of the family, remains awkwardly straddled between its roles as Europe’s ally and antagonist. Turkish drones are destroying Ethiopia’s promise of peace
  • (UK) James Coker, Infosecurity. The UK Cyber Security Council has announced a pilot program designed to create the country’s first chartered cyber professionals. UK Cyber Security Council Creates Chartered Qualification for Industry Pros
  • (UK) Atlantic Council. His moment has arrived. Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the exchequer, was tapped as the United Kingdom’s newest prime minister on Monday after no other Conservative Party hopefuls garnered enough support among members of Parliament. Sunak, 42, who is of Indian descent, makes history as the first person of color to become prime minister and takes over for Liz Truss—the shortest-serving prime minister in UK history—amid political and financial turmoil. Can Sunak calm the markets and the country? What should the world expect from Great Britain’s new leader? Our experts are on the case. Experts react: Rishi Sunak makes history as newest UK prime minister. Can he calm a country in chaos?
  • (Ukraine) Josh Rudolph and Norman Eisen, Brookings. Given how valiantly Ukrainians are defending the front lines of the free world, a morally and politically difficult job will fall to the leaders of the United States and the European Union: They will have to insist on sending Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars for recovery and reconstruction only if the aid architecture and reform agenda aggressively prioritize anti-corruption. Protecting aid money from corruption and pressing forward with reform in Kyiv is essential for Ukrainian sovereignty, the country’s EU accession, and the integrity of Western tax dollars. Strong anti-corruption commitments and performance are key to Ukraine emerging from this devastating war with a modern democracy and fair economy worthy of such historic sacrifice. Ukrainian recovery funding must be tied to anti-corruption
  • (USA) Alessandro Mascellino, Infosecurity. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has released a new joint Cybersecurity Advisory (CSA) warning organizations against the ransomware and data extortion group Daixin Team. CISA Warns Against Ransomware Group Daixin Team Targeting Health Organizations
  • (USA) Alexandra Kelley, Defense One. Funding for new and emerging technologies is featured heavily in several Senate amendments proposed for the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, underscoring Capitol Hill’s enthusiasm and technology’s increasing role in modernizing national security.  AI Tops Proposed Tech Amendments for the 2023 NDAA
  • (Vietnam) Suiwah Leung, East Asia Forum. Vietnam currently benefits from China’s COVID-19 lockdowns and the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China — especially in electronics manufacturing. The country flirted with its own zero-COVID-19 policy and lockdowns in 2021 but changed course quickly to have two-thirds of its population vaccinated by December 2021. Vietnam wires into global electronics