Geostrategic magazine

Geostrategic magazine (october 26, 2022 pm)

All that is taken up here, in the complexity of open sources, does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Global Eye



  • (Australia) Marcus Hellyer, The Strategist. The Albanese government just released its first budget, but it’s the second one for 2022–23. In this article I’ll focus on what’s changed between the March budget (B1) and the October one (B2). The key takeaway is that the government is keeping its powder dry on defence spending until it hears back from the strategic review it has commissioned. The review’s independent leads, former Australian Defence Force chief Angus Houston and former defence and foreign minister Steven Smith, have been instructed to work out what the Australian Defence Force should look like as we enter an era of uncertainty and strategic competition—and to tell the government what it will cost. Defence budget shows the government is keeping its powder dry—for now
  • (Australia) , The Strategist. Going into May’s federal election, the Australian Labor Party announced that it would undertake a defence force posture review if elected. Following the election and Labor’s win, the scope of the review increased dramatically. The defence strategic review that’s currently underway is more akin to a full-blown white paper—produced in an incredibly condensed timeframe. But what about force posture? Defence review must consider force posture in the context of Australia’s strategic geography
  • (Australia – Indian Ocean) Lisa Singh, Lewis Baker, The Interpreter. The Indian Ocean region has played a crucial role throughout history, yet in recent times it has not been recognised for its distinct regional security architecture. Australia’s shared security in the Indian Ocean
  • (China) MERICS. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012, has been awarded with an unprecedented third term in power and has managed to fill the ranks of the inner circles of the CCP entirely with close allies. Together with MERICS Analyst Valarie Tan and MERICS Senior Analyst Jacob Gunter we look at the leadership reshuffle and other outcomes of the 20th National Congress of the CCP. Both experts argue that as a result of the changes implemented during the party congress, the Chinese leadership has become more unpredictable for people outside but also inside China. Outcomes of the 20th Party Congress, with Valarie Tan and Jacob Gunter | Merics
  • (China) Veerle Nouwens, RUSI. Does the recent Congress indicate triumph or challenges ahead for China? Episode 43: China’s 20th Party Congress: Foreign and Domestic Implications
  • (China) Andrew Cainey, RUSI. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, China has pursued a markedly different approach to the West. But the costs of maintaining its current policy are steadily rising. The Insecurity of China’s Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy
  • (China) , The Strategist. In August, a photograph of China’s Dalian shipyard surfaced on Chinese social media site Weibo showing five hulls of Luyang III–type vessels under construction. Once completed, these destroyers will sail out into blue waters, projecting the might of the Chinese navy and carrying with them a lethal high-tech projectile—the YJ-18A missile. Able to severely damage a warship with tens of thousands of tons of displacement in a single strike, the YJ-18A can sprint up to Mach 3.0 before impact and carry a 300-kilogram warhead. The result is a serious threat to US carrier strike groups in the South China Sea and beyond. How China’s military plugs into the global space sector
  • (Europe – Russia) Anna Melenchuk, Andrea Castagna, GMF. The sanctions on Russia as a result of its war against Ukraine are probably the toughest actions that the European Union has taken against an authoritarian regime. The EU Must Give Itself the Means to Designate Russia as a Sponsor of Terrorism
  • (Israel – Lebanon) Orna Mizrahi, INSS. The agreement between Israel and Lebanon is a win-win situation, notwithstanding the criticism leveled against it. The maritime arrangement is indeed a compromise, yet one that serves the interests of both states, and most important, does not harm – and even contributes to – Israel’s national security. What does the agreement include, and what are the interests of the respective parties? The Agreement with Lebanon: The Benefits Outweigh the Drawbacks
  • (Russia – Ukraine) Pavel Baev, French Institute for International Relations. The blame for committing the blunder of starting the war with Ukraine is deservedly placed on President Vladimir Putin, but a single-explanation interpretation of the unfolding disaster is unsatisfactory. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Misleading Doctrine, Misguided Strategy
  • (Ukraine) Ronja Ganster, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, GMF. So this war, too, will end. And when the weapons are silent, a plan for peace is needed, a plan for Ukraine’s survival and economic recovery. In the Second World War, postwar planning began as early as 1943. Postwar Planning Must Begin: What a Modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine Looks Like
  • (USA) Colin Demarest, Defense News. The failure of Congress to pass a full fiscal year 2023 budget on time is hampering the migration of portions of the Project Maven artificial intelligence effort to the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and AI Office, a senior official said. Pentagon’s Project Maven transition stymied by Congress, official says
  • (USA)
  • (USA) David Wilcox, CNN. Rising prices are causing real and immediate financial hardship for millions of American households. While a growing number of economists claim the Federal Reserve has gone too far in its fight against inflation and is unnecessarily setting the US economy up for a hard landing, I would argue the Fed is doing what it must to fulfill its responsibility for controlling inflation, even if doing so means risking a recession. The Fed is doing what it should to fight inflation
  • (USA) Crisis Group. The U.S. constitution divides war powers between the executive and legislative branches, so as to ensure that decisions about using force are collective and deliberative. Lawmakers’ role has receded, however, particularly in recent decades. Small steps would help them start reclaiming their prerogatives. Stop Fighting Blind: Better Use-of-Force Oversight in the U.S. Congress