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Lebanon/Israel – Lebanon’s Collapse, and the Significance for Israel (INSS)

Orna Mizrahi, Yoram Schweitzer write for INSS: The ongoing deterioration of Lebanon’s economy and the country’s political chaos have sharpened the dilemma of Israel’s new government as it formulates its policy on Lebanon. It appears that in any case, Israel should adopt a more proactive approach, rather than treating the negative consequences of events in Lebanon as preordained, especially in the extreme scenario of a total takeover by Hezbollah, which would turn the country into an Iranian sphere of influence, similar to Syria. Rescinding the sanctions against Iran following a possible return to the nuclear agreement by the United States may accelerate this scenario. At the same time, recent developments in Lebanon provide a potential opportunity for the IDF to deal a more substantial blow to Hezbollah’s military capabilities, and quash the attempts to forge a new “deterrence equation” that includes shooting from Lebanon in response to clashes on the Temple Mount and elsewhere in Jerusalem.
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