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Cyber Security, Digital Transition, Technology Geopolitics & Worlds In-Defense In-Security Pensiero Strategico

Open newsletter – april 1, 2022 p.m.

COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO

Dallo scenario russo-ucraino, guerra non limitabile ai confini dei due Paesi, vengono scenari di futuro. Oggi le cronache scrivono del viaggio del ministro degli Esteri russo Lavrov in India, nel giorno in cui Cina ed Europa s’incontrano (e Xi Jinping, riporta Reuters, “hopes the European Union can form its view of China “independently”).

Ebbene, ben sapendo che le relazioni internazionali si fondano anzitutto su ragioni d’interesse, pare necessario rilevare come si veda un abbozzo di una nuova configurazione planetaria dei rapporti di forza. Tutto è in progress e, certamente, le ragioni che avvicinano Russia, Cina e, sembrerebbe, India, sono da sondare nel profondo e da seguire. Si tratterebbe di una svolta che ci porrebbe davanti a nuovi possibili equilibri del mondo: una “saldatura”, per quanto fondata sull’interesse, che merita di essere considerata.

Oggi, i problemi della Russia la obbligano a cercare alleati. Se, con la guerra in Ucraina, Mosca si è tagliata i ponti con gli Occidenti, il dialogo con Pechino e Delhi è necessario per varie ragioni. Reuters pone in evidenza diversi elementi, tra i quali  è centrale il tema valutario (circuito alternativo al dollaro e all’euro). E, ancora, va ricordato che Pechino e Delhi non hanno apertamente condannato l’azione russa: rappresentano circa la metà dell’umanità. Qui non si esprimono certezze, preso atto della estrema fluidità dei processi storici, ma si cerca di leggere alcuni “segni” che potrebbero indicare prospettive. 

(di Marco Emanuele)

TODAY:

  • AROUND THE WORLD
  • NUCLEAR
  • RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

 

AROUND THE WORLD

China – Europe

Ethiopia

North Korea

  • UN Special Rapporteur’s Final Message on North Korea Urges Respect for Human Rights and Calls for Humanitarian Aid, March 31. By Robert R. King, CSIS. Tomás Ojea Quintana, a prominent Argentine attorney and professor of law, has served as the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for the past six years. His final report on North Korean human rights conditions was discussed at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this past week. UN procedures specify that a special rapporteur may serve a period of only six years dealing with an issue involving a single country or topic. This summer, the UN Human Rights Council is expected to designate a new special rapporteur who will continue to focus on the issue of North Korea’s human rights. (read more)

Tunisia

USA – Kazakhstan

U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability

  • The Spirit of Partnership: Implementing the U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability, April 1. By US Department of State. The United States is committed to strengthening global resiliency and democratic renewal, and promoting peaceful, self-reliant nations that become strong economic and security partners capable of addressing shared challenges.  To that end, the U.S. Government is moving forward in the spirit of partnership with Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and five countries in the Coastal West Africa region (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo) to implement the ten-year U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability. (read more)

NUCLEAR

  • CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, March 31. By Rebecca Hersman, CSIS. The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), have convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past 13 years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues. By identifying areas of consensus, the group seeks to improve collaboration and cooperation among the three nations across a range of challenging nuclear policy concerns. The majority of the experts are former U.S., UK, and French senior officials; the others are well-known academics in the field. Since the Dialogues’ inception, currently serving senior officials from all three governments have also routinely participated in the discussions. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)