COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO
Dallo scenario russo-ucraino, guerra non limitabile ai confini dei due Paesi, vengono scenari di futuro. Oggi le cronache scrivono del viaggio del ministro degli Esteri russo Lavrov in India, nel giorno in cui Cina ed Europa s’incontrano (e Xi Jinping, riporta Reuters, “hopes the European Union can form its view of China “independently”).
Ebbene, ben sapendo che le relazioni internazionali si fondano anzitutto su ragioni d’interesse, pare necessario rilevare come si veda un abbozzo di una nuova configurazione planetaria dei rapporti di forza. Tutto è in progress e, certamente, le ragioni che avvicinano Russia, Cina e, sembrerebbe, India, sono da sondare nel profondo e da seguire. Si tratterebbe di una svolta che ci porrebbe davanti a nuovi possibili equilibri del mondo: una “saldatura”, per quanto fondata sull’interesse, che merita di essere considerata.
Oggi, i problemi della Russia la obbligano a cercare alleati. Se, con la guerra in Ucraina, Mosca si è tagliata i ponti con gli Occidenti, il dialogo con Pechino e Delhi è necessario per varie ragioni. Reuters pone in evidenza diversi elementi, tra i quali è centrale il tema valutario (circuito alternativo al dollaro e all’euro). E, ancora, va ricordato che Pechino e Delhi non hanno apertamente condannato l’azione russa: rappresentano circa la metà dell’umanità. Qui non si esprimono certezze, preso atto della estrema fluidità dei processi storici, ma si cerca di leggere alcuni “segni” che potrebbero indicare prospettive.
(di Marco Emanuele)
- AROUND THE WORLD
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD
China – Europe
- China’s Xi calls on EU to view China ‘independently’ -state media, April 1. By Reuters.(read more)
- Aid convoy enters territory controlled by Tigray forces in Ethiopia – WFP, April 1. By Reuters. Trucks carrying aid entered Ethiopian territory controlled by Tigrayan forces on Friday for the first time since Dec. 15, the United Nations food agency said on Twitter on Friday. (read amore)
- UN Special Rapporteur’s Final Message on North Korea Urges Respect for Human Rights and Calls for Humanitarian Aid, March 31. By Robert R. King, CSIS. Tomás Ojea Quintana, a prominent Argentine attorney and professor of law, has served as the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) for the past six years. His final report on North Korean human rights conditions was discussed at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this past week. UN procedures specify that a special rapporteur may serve a period of only six years dealing with an issue involving a single country or topic. This summer, the UN Human Rights Council is expected to designate a new special rapporteur who will continue to focus on the issue of North Korea’s human rights. (read more)
- Tunisia crisis escalates as police summon opposition figures, April 1. By Tarek Amara and Angus Mcdowall, Reuters. Tunisian anti-terrorism police summoned the country’s main opposition figure for questioning on Friday, as a political crisis deepens in the wake of President Kais Saied’s move to dissolve parliament and impose one-man rule. (read more)
USA – Kazakhstan
- The United States-Kazakhstan Open Skies Air Transport Agreement Enters into Force, April 1. By US Department of State. (read more)
U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability
- The Spirit of Partnership: Implementing the U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability, April 1. By US Department of State. The United States is committed to strengthening global resiliency and democratic renewal, and promoting peaceful, self-reliant nations that become strong economic and security partners capable of addressing shared challenges. To that end, the U.S. Government is moving forward in the spirit of partnership with Haiti, Libya, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, and five countries in the Coastal West Africa region (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo) to implement the ten-year U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability. (read more)
- CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, March 31. By Rebecca Hersman, CSIS. The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), have convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past 13 years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues. By identifying areas of consensus, the group seeks to improve collaboration and cooperation among the three nations across a range of challenging nuclear policy concerns. The majority of the experts are former U.S., UK, and French senior officials; the others are well-known academics in the field. Since the Dialogues’ inception, currently serving senior officials from all three governments have also routinely participated in the discussions. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point, March 31. By Mark F. Cancian, CSIS. In four weeks of combat, Russia may have lost 25 percent of its initial attacking force. These casualties are not on the scale of World War II but are large compared with the relatively small size of the Russian military today. Although reinforcements and replacements can offset some of these casualties, the loss of trained troops will impair military operations and eventually have a political effect. (read more)
- The American people’s message to President Biden about Ukraine—get tougher but don’t risk war with Russia, By William A. Galston, April 1. The latest survey of public opinion about the conflict in Ukraine presents a paradox. On the one hand, Americans say that they want President Biden to get tougher with Russia. On the other hand, their views about specific policies precisely track with the administration’s stance. Americans want the administration to do what the administration is already doing, and they do not want the administration to take the additional steps that it has already rejected. (read more)
- Russia’s Lavrov hopes to bypass sanctions in trade with “friend” India, April 1. Krishna N. Das, Reuters. Russia will increase its use of non-Western currencies for trade with countries such as India, its foreign minister said on Friday, as he hailed New Delhi as a friend that was not taking a “one-sided view” on the Ukraine war. (read more)
- ‘From our heart’: Taiwan rejects China’s criticism over Ukraine aid, April 1- By Reuters. Taiwan’s foreign minister on Friday strongly rejected criticism of its relief efforts for Ukraine from China, saying the aid came “from our heart” and was not an exercise in political manipulation. (read more)
- Russian gas flows to Europe despite Putin deadline, April 1. By Sergiy Karazy, Al Jazeera. Russia allowed gas to keep flowing to Europe on Friday despite a deadline for buyers to pay in roubles or be cut off, and peace talks resumed, with Moscow saying it would respond to a Ukrainian offer. (read more)