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Cyber Security, Digital Transition, Technology Geopolitics & Worlds In-Defense In-Security Pensiero Strategico

Open newsletter – april 1, 2022 a.m.

COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO 

La guerra in Ucraina esonda chiaramente dal campo nel quale si svolge. E’ in gioco ben altro che il rapporto tra Russia e Ucraina (che auspichiamo si definisca velocemente, a evitare ulteriori perdite di vite umane, attraverso i negoziati di pace).

Complice questa guerra, si vedono scelte strategiche che vanno nel senso dell’autosufficienza. Così scrive IndustryWeek, laddove Katherine Tai (U.S. Trade Representative) critica la strategia USA delle sanzioni alla Cina: “Rather than pressuring China to change its “unfair” trade practices, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai said Wednesday the economy would better served by policies to encourage domestic manufacturing.  In a four-hour hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, President Joe Biden’s trade chief acknowledged that Washington’s strategy of imposing massive tariffs on Beijing — which began under former president Donald Trump — has had little to no effect on its policies”. Il tema delle sanzioni vale anche rispetto alla Russia: l’attivismo americano di queste ore (Reuters) guarda anche alla ripresa del rublo: forse le sanzioni comminate alla Russia non hanno realizzato l’effetto desiderato. 

In prospettiva. Molto si parla del disaccoppiamento delle economie che è certamente un rischio se non è accompagnato da chiare e definite visioni politico-strategiche. Molti si affannano a scrivere di de-globalizzazione ma lo scenario che vediamo più realistico, come nuova fase della globalizzazione, è una sorta di ri-posizionamento (sempre più dinamico) dei rapporti di forza in ambito politico, economico, tecnologico. Questo porterebbe con sé, inevitabilmente, il ri-posizionamento del potere perché si definirebbero nuove geografie (con conseguenti possibili “saldature” tra autocrazie) che, anche in conseguenza della guerra in Ucraina, andrebbero a formare la configurazione del mondo nel XXI secolo. “The European Union is not the centre of the universe,” Nikolai Kobrinets, the head of the European cooperation department at the (russian foreign, NdA) ministry, said”. (Reuters)

Il tema dell’autosufficienza, energetico e alimentare in particolare, è all’ordine del giorno nelle agende strategiche. L’ultimatum dato da Putin all’Europa di pagare il gas in rubli (l’energia e la valuta usate come armi) ci segnala l’altra guerra, che ci preoccupa molto, che si avvia dall’invasione dell’Ucraina. Occorre monitorare l’evoluzione con grande attenzione e realismo. Intanto, l’Agenzia Internazionale per lì’Energia discute di un piano per il rilascio di riserve strategiche (Reuters).

Riguardo alla crisi alimentare che potrà accadere, occorre ascoltare anche le voci dissonanti rispetto al mainstream. Scrive Reuters: “Excluding Russia from the Group of 20 major economies and other international institutions could slow efforts to address a worsening global food crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the head of German aid group Welthungerhilfe (WHH) told Reuters. Mathias Mogge, chief executive of the group, which serves 14.3 million people with projects in 35 countries, said it was critical to maintain communication with Russia, one of the world’s largest producers of wheat, in tackling the crisis”. Nulla è mai lineare. 

C’è, inoltre, uno scenario “silenzioso” che riguarda lo spazio. La competizione si sposta in quel luogo sempre più strategico. Negli USA si lavora a un “digital twin” dello spazio per simulare operazioni di difesa: partita come operazione commerciale, viene messa a disposizione della US Space Force. Scrive Defense News: “Slingshot Aerospace announced today it is developing a digital replica of the space environment for the U.S. Space Force as part of a new $25 million contract aimed at quickly delivering training and war gaming capabilities. The company’s Digital Space Twin simulates the space environment and maps on-orbit objects and space weather in real-time. Slingshot has been developing the tool as a commercial product for the last two yearsand, through the new contract, will adapt it for Space Force missions to “enhance their ability to analyze and respond to current and future threats,” Slingshot said in a press release Thursday. The company plans to deliver the commercial version before it completes the government product.”. Nota Defense One: “Space is a fast-moving and constantly changing domain where threats can arrive before troops even see them, so the Space Force is buying new technology to give troops a real-time picture of space to train in. The service on Thursday awarded Slingshot Aerospace a $25-million, 39-month contract to provide a digital twin of orbital space. The system will autonomously comb through public and commercial data to provide Guardians a picture of the state of space as it is at any minute, including the locations of more than 7,000 orbiting satellites plus space debris, the potential for solar flares or other space weather, and the chance of disruptions to radio communications”.

(Marco Emanuele)

 

TODAY:

  • AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflict)
  • DEFENSE – MILITARY
  • ON LIFE 
  • RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

 

AROUND THE WORLD (evolving worlds, ongoing relations, crisis, conflict)

Europe – China

Hong Kong

Japan – Russia – North Korea

North Korea

Sri Lanka

USA

  • Tariffs Have Not Forced China to Change its Ways, US Trade Chief Says, March 31. By Agence France-Press, IndustryWeek. Rather than pressuring China to change its “unfair” trade practices, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai said Wednesday the economy would better served by policies to encourage domestic manufacturing. In a four-hour hearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, President Joe Biden’s trade chief acknowledged that Washington’s strategy of imposing massive tariffs on Beijing — which began under former president Donald Trump — has had little to no effect on its policies. (read more)

DEFENSE – MILITARY

  • The testing and explainability challenge facing human-machine teaming, March 31. By Julie Obenauer Motley, Brookings. Militaries around the world are preparing for the next generation of warfare—one in which human-machine teams are integral to operations. Faster decisionmaking, remote sensing, and coordinating across domains and battlespaces will likely be the keys to victory in future conflicts. To realize these advantages, militaries are investing in human-machine teaming (HMT), a class of technologies that aim to marry human judgment with the data-processing and response capabilities of modern computing. (read more)
  • Navy Targets Prototypes to Support Human-Operated and Autonomous Weapons and Vehicles, March 31. By Brandi Vincent, Nextgov. The Navy kicked off an effort to drive the making of prototypes for human-powered and autonomous weapons and vehicles. According to a presolicitation updated on Wednesday, the Naval Surface Warfare Center’s Panama City Division “has a requirement for prototyping in support of development, integration, demonstration, testing and evaluation, and delivery of prototype systems, subsystems, components, materials and technologies to support existing or emerging manned or unmanned vehicles, weapons and weapons control systems”—specifically related to mine, amphibious and Naval surface warfare; diving and life support; coastal and underwater intelligence surveillance; and reconnaissance and other missions in nearshore and riverine environments. (read more)
  • Ukraine Gives Urgency to Giant NATO Cold-Weather Exercise, March 31. By Elisabeth Braw, Defense One. NATO’s massive Cold Response 2022 was supposed to distinguish itself in one way: it’s a massive—30,000-troop—cold-weather exercise involving nearly all of NATO’s member states. But since it began in Norway last week, Cold Response 2022 has also distinguished itself in two unpredicted ways: four U.S. Marines have lost their lives in an accident, and the exercise is taking place amid a brutal war in the neighborhood. (read more)
  • US Navy to terminate DART sonar development with Raytheon, April 1. By Megan Eckstein, Defense News. The U.S. Navy will end its work with Raytheon Technologies developing a sonar for littoral combat ships and frigates and will instead buy a sonar already in use by several navies around the globe. Raytheon’s AN/SQS-62 Variable Depth Sonar, also called the Dual-mode Array Transmitter, was a key component of the LCS anti-submarine warfare mission package and was going to be carried into the Constellation-class frigate program to create commonality within the surface force. (read more)
  • US Air Force’s new Jolly Green II combat rescue helicopter begins operational testing, March 31. Stephen Losey, Defense News. The U.S. Air Force’s new combat rescue helicopter, the HH-60W Jolly Green II, has moved into its operational test phase at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. In a Wednesday release, the Air Force said the last HH-60W left Eglin Air Force Base’s Duke Field in Florida on March 22, wrapping up its initial developmental test with the 413th Flight Test Squadron. (read more)
  • US Army on track to award TITAN competitive prototyping contracts in the coming months, March 31. By Courtney Albon, Defense News. The U.S. Army expects to award the next phase of competitive prototyping awards by the end of June for the second phase of its next-generation ground system development effort. (read more)
  • Space Force Buys a Digital Twin of Orbital Space, March 31. By Jacqueline Feldscher, Defense One. Space is a fast-moving and constantly changing domain where threats can arrive before troops even see them, so the Space Force is buying new technology to give troops a real-time picture of space to train in. The service on Thursday awarded Slingshot Aerospace a $25-million, 39-month contract to provide a digital twin of orbital space. The system will autonomously comb through public and commercial data to provide Guardians a picture of the state of space as it is at any minute, including the locations of more than 7,000 orbiting satellites plus space debris, the potential for solar flares or other space weather, and the chance of disruptions to radio communications.  (read more)
  • US Space Force awards contract for simulation and war gaming environment. March 31. By Courtney Albon, Defense News. Slingshot Aerospace announced today it is developing a digital replica of the space environment for the U.S. Space Force as part of a new $25 million contract aimed at quickly delivering training and war gaming capabilities. The company’s Digital Space Twin simulates the space environment and maps on-orbit objects and space weather in real-time. Slingshot has been developing the tool as a commercial product for the last two years and, through the new contract, will adapt it for Space Force missions to “enhance their ability to analyze and respond to current and future threats,” Slingshot said in a press release Thursday. The company plans to deliver the commercial version before it completes the government product. (read more)
  • Tanks and helos: How Ukraine can inform military modernization efforts, March 31. By Brandon Tseng, Defense News. The Ukrainian battlefield should inform U.S. and allied military modernization efforts. We all started with a plan, and it’s time to take in recent information and adjust accordingly. The numerous videos of Stinger missiles and man-portable air defense systems annihilating Russian helicopters — just as the Afghans did to the Russians in the 1980s — or the rows of destroyed tanks — just as the U.S. destroyed Iraqi tanks in the 1990s — should inform our modernization efforts. (read more)
  • Proposed US Army budget funds third Multi-Domain Task Force, March 31. By Colin Demarest, Defense News. The U.S. Army’s $178 billion budget blueprint for fiscal year 2023 supports a third Multi-Domain Task Force, a flexible unit at the center of the service’s modernization efforts. The third task force will be similar to the two already up and running, Army executives said at a March 29 briefing, and will conduct electronic warfare and cyber operations. It will also aid military experiments and exercises. (read more)

ON LIFE

Cybersecurity

Data

  • Report Reveals Surveillance Abuses In Educational Technology, March 31. By Alexandra Kelley, Nextgov. A report examining the use of four educational technology companies’ usage of artificial intelligence was released on Wednesday, following a request from Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Edward J. Markey, D-Mass., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. back in 2021. The companies in question—Gaggle.net, Bark Technologies, GoGuardian and Securly Inc.—were found to have misused surveillance technology while students were using the products. The report specifically noted that software monitoring student activity may have been misused for disciplinary purposes resulting in contact with law enforcement and that schools and parents have not been made aware of the use of data being gathered by these softwares. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)