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Cyber Security, Digital Transition, Technology Geopolitics & Worlds In-Defense In-Security Pensiero Strategico

Open newsletter – April 12, 2022 a.m.

TODAY:

  • AROUND THE WORLD
  • RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
  • TECH – DEFENSE – MILITARY  SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE

 

AROUND THE WORLD

Central African Republic

Chile

China

Iran 

  • Darkhovin plant on Iran’s agenda : Nuclear Policies, April 11. By World Nuclear News. Iran is “seriously” pursuing the construction of a nuclear power plant at Darkhovin, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) said at the country’s national nuclear technology day on 9 April. Iranian President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi said the country will continue to pursue peaceful nuclear activities. (read more)

Israel – Palestine

Taiwan

USA – China

  • Hicks: Today’s Russia Problem Mustn’t Distract from Tomorrow’s China Problem, April 11. By Patrick Tucker, Nextgov. As terrible as Russia’s war in Ukraine is, it pales in comparison to a potential fight against China, the Pentagon’s No. 2 civilian said. The Ukrainian conflict “is not the degree of difficulty that we are looking at in terms of what we need to have to fight in the future,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks told reporters traveling with her to visit startups and technology partners in California this week. “You even see the Ukrainians asking for more and more advanced systems themselves. But, the [United States], we’re very focused on how to make sure we have a really combat credible capability,” to deter China. (read more)

USA – India

USA – Indo Pacific

  • Regional Perspectives on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, April 11. The proposed Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is the Biden administration’s answer to questions about the United States’ economic commitment to the vital Indo-Pacific region. For this initiative to succeed, it must address concerns among regional partners about the framework’s form, function, benefits, inclusivity, and durability. Based on conversations with representatives from over a dozen regional governments, this brief summarizes Indo-Pacific perspectives on the IPEF. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

  • Aleksandr Dvornikov: New Russian general to oversee Ukraine war, April 12. By Mansur Mirovalev, Al Jazeera. (read more)
  • Russia-backed Indian refiner struggling for trade credit: Report, April 12. By Al Jazeera. (read more)
  • UK says ‘all options are on the table’ if Russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, April 12. By Reuters. (read more)
  • Evaluating the Russia Sanctions, April 11. By William Reinsch, CSIS. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, massive sanctions were imposed, and more have continued to arrive as the war has continued. Now, some six weeks later, we can draw some conclusions about the sanctions imposed by the United States and its friends and allies. (read more)
  • Second staff rotation at Chernobyl : Regulation & Safety, April 11. By World Nuclear News. The first staff rotation at Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant in three weeks and only the second since late February when Russian forces seized the site has been carried out. The workers were transported by boat as the plant remains inaccessible by road. (read more)
  • Anonymous hacked Russia’s Ministry of Culture and leaked 446 GBS, April 11. By Pierluigi Paganini, Security Affairs. Data leak service DDoSecrets has published over 700 GB of data allegedly stolen from the Russian government, including over 500,000 emails. (read more)
  • The conflict with Ukraine, April 11. By Levada Center. 64% of Russians closely monitor the situation around Ukraine. 81% of respondents support the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. The dominant feelings among Russians caused by military actions in Ukraine are “pride for Russia” (51%), “anxiety, fear, horror” (31%), “shock” (12%). (read more)
  • Approval of institutions, ratings of parties and politicians, April 11. By Levada Center. In March, the approval of the main state institutions increased significantly: 83% approve of the activities of the president, 71% approve of the Prime Minister, 70% approve of the government, 59% approve of the State Duma. The share of those who believe that things are going in the right direction in the country has sharply increased. The rating of United Russia reached 54% (of those who decided on the choice), the indicators of other parties have not changed significantly. (read more)
  • Notorious Russian General Told to Revive Flagging War, April 11. By Mark Voyger, CEPA. Dvornikov, currently commander of the Southern Military District, has been promoted to become operational overlord of Russia’s war-battered and demoralized forces in Ukraine. What follows will not be nice, and suggests the Kremlin has given the green light to the ruinously destructive and ruthless tactics the general developed in Syria. (read more)
  • Ukraine’s Suffering Stokes Guilt & Eventually Action, April 11. By Edward Lucas, CEPA. The consensus was stifling. This war is none of the West’s business. The causes are complicated. These fierce, strange people in hard-to-understand places have been fighting each other for centuries. In time, they will stop. Meanwhile, stand clear. Intervention would be hugely costly and probably make matters worse.  (read more)
  • The False God of Tsar Vladimir Putin, April 11. By Walter Clemens, CEPA. The notion with “God is with us,” Gott mit uns, has been part of Vladimir Putin’s Russian nationalist revival, a boast that is sacrilegious and untrue. (read more)
  • López Obrador’s flirtation with Russia risks worsening US-Mexican relations, April 11. By Arturo Sarukhan, Brookings. Since the early days of Russia’s premeditated and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, Mexico has been raising eyebrows and opening question marks in Washington as well as in the capitals of other nations determined to push back on Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression. (read more)
  • The Economic Aspect of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Implications, Complications (Part One), April 11. By Sergey Sukhankin, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, which commenced on February 24 (Kremlin.ru, February 24), pushed the world’s largest advanced economies to introduce several rounds of increasing economic sanctions against the Russian Federation (Meduza, March 8). While the initial impact of those punitive measures seemed catastrophic (Kommersant, March 31), the Russian economy has slowly begun adjusting, according to Moscow (RIA Novosti, March 31; Meduza, February 28). The degree to which reality diverges from pro-Kremlin propaganda requires a close analysis of the impact and potential consequences of the Western economic sanctions on four key pillars of the Russian economy: 1) the natural resources sector, 2) heavy industry (for civilian end users, 3) agriculture and fertilizer production, as well as 4) the defense sector and Russia’s domestic military-industrial complex. (read more)
  • EW Hype? The Reasons Behind the Limited Effectiveness of Russia’s Electronic Warfare in Ukraine, April 11. By Yuri Lapaiev, The Jamestown Foundation. At the beginning of April, the hampered and decimated Russian forces that had been trying to conquer the Ukrainian capital retreated from the Kyiv region to resupply and regroup. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), a new potential direction of attack could be the Kharkiv region, in order to encircle the large group of AFU units in Donbas. To support this assault, the Russian forces may employ one of their newest electronic warfare (EW) systems—the Silok-M1—in order to try to counter Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) (Defense Express, April 3). This Russian EW complex was specifically developed to detect enemy drones, calculate their flight coordinates, and suppress their remote-control channel in automatic mode at a distance of three to four kilometers. Yet even if the Silok-M1 functions as advertised, it would be of only limited effectiveness against not only Ukraine’s famed high-altitude Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat drones (see EDM, March 16) but even against smaller reconnaissance UAVs. (read more)
  • Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable, April 11. By Pavel K. Baev, The Jamestown Foundation. Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would disintegrate, the follow-up proposition for laying siege to Kyiv presumed that the government would capitulate, while the order to execute a breakthrough toward Odesa mistakenly took for granted that Ukraine’s most important seaport had been left undefended. (read more)
  • Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive as Moscow dismisses rape allegations, April 12. By , Reuters. (read more)
  • After Losses, Russia Regroups for the Donbas and Names ‘Butcher of Syria’ Head of Ukraine Ops, By Tara Copp, Defense One. Forty-seven days into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is regrouping for another battle for the Donbas—and has named a Russian general known for his brutality as head of operations in Ukraine.  (read more)
  • Western nations adapt their Ukraine help as war enters new phase, April 11. By Joe Gould, Defense News. The U.S. and its allies are preparing to send heavier weapons to Ukraine in anticipation of Russia focusing its efforts on the eastern part of the country. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson paid a surprise visit to Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Saturday, where he pledged 120 armored vehicles and new anti-ship missile systems. This came a day after he promised to send an additional £100 million (U.S. $130 million) of high-grade military equipment to Ukraine, saying Britain wants to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression. (read more)
  • Slovakia could sell howitzers to Ukraine and repair its tanks, vehicles, April 11. By Jaroslaw Adamowski,  Defense News. Shortly after Slovakia supplied an S-300 air defense system to Ukraine to support its fight against Russia’s invasion, Slovak Defence Minister Jaroslav Naď has announced his country is in talks with the Ukrainian government over a potential sale of Zuzana 155 mm self-propelled howitzers. (read more)

TECH – DEFENSE – MILITARY  SECURITY – CYBER – SPACE