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Open newsletter – April 4, 2022 a.m.

COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO

Non vi è dubbio che la quarta vittoria di Orban alle elezioni ungheresi solleverà interrogativi da ogni parte. La nostra idea e pratica della democrazia è tale per cui definiamo il regime di Orban come “illiberale”. Chi, come noi, crede nei valori liberali guarda a quel Paese con preoccupazione. Ne vengono alcune considerazioni. La prima riguarda i numeri importanti che hanno confermato Orban al potere: evidentemente, la scelta pro-Putin espressa chiaramente dal leader non ha inciso sostanzialmente sui risultati elettorali. Ciò significa che la grande maggioranza degli ungheresi vuole quel tipo di governo: con questo occorre fare i conti. La seconda considerazione riguarda la realtà e il futuro dell’Europa: essa è un soggetto, come detto più volte, profondamente segnato da divisioni interne. Divisioni che hanno a che fare con prospettive differenti e a volte divergenti: per questo il Vecchio Continente ha bisogno di un sussulto di politica, non scambiando l’apparente unità sulle sanzioni a Mosca come unità sostanziale e indipendenza strategica. Le contraddizioni interne all’Europa e la guerra alle sue porte la rendono politicamente fragile e, allo stato attuale, un vaso di coccio tra vasi di ferro (Russia, con i suoi “alleati tattici” Cina e, forse, India, e gli USA). L’Ucraina, non da oggi, è il campo di battaglia prescelto. 

E c’è la Serbia, dove vince Vucic. Il Paese è portatore di una posizione che potremmo definire del “si, ma …”. Nota Reuters: “Vucic ran for a second five-year term on a promise of peace and stability just as Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, which has put Serbia under pressure from the West to choose between its traditional ties with Moscow and aspirations to join the European Union (EU). Vucic acknowledged conflict in Ukraine impacted the campaign and said Serbia has no plans to deviate from its balancing game between the EU membership bid and close ties with Russia and China, a major investor”.

Un player da guardare con attenzione, assai delicato per posizione geografica e per essere una potenza nucleare, è il Pakistan. La crescente instabilità politica e costituzionale deve preoccupare. Scrive Reuters: “The nuclear-armed nation of more than 220 million people lies between Afghanistan to the west, China to the northeast and nuclear rival India to the east, making it of vital strategic importance. Since coming to power in 2018, Khan’s rhetoric has become more anti-American and he has expressed a desire to move closer to China and, recently, Russia – including talks with President Vladimir Putin on the day the invasion of Ukraine began”. 

L’area del sud-asiatico, realmente strategica nell’attuale situazione internazionale, è terra di appetiti e di manovre tra la Cina, gli USA e i suoi alleati. In quella parte di mondo, nella quale si muovono dinamiche assai complesse e con particolare attenzione alle strategie cinesi, quali sono le risposte di difesa da parte dell’Australia ? 

Seguono le fonti aperte.

(di Marco Emanuele)

TODAY:

  • AROUND THE WORLD
  • DEFENSE – MILITARY
  • RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

 

AROUND THE WORLD

Asia

Australia

China

China – Philippines 

Costa Rica

Hong Kong

Hungary

Pakistan

South China Sea

Sri Lanka

DEFENSE – MILITARY

  • AUKUS can be a good platform for cooperation with India, April 4. By David Brewster, The Interpreter. Someone famous once reputedly quipped “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” So there is a certain echo to the AUKUS arrangement, which brings together Australia, United Kingdom and United States to share vital defence technologies in an effort to stabilise the Indo Pacific region. As an “open architecture”, AUKUS could also offer a good way of working with key regional partners, including India, particularly in high-end defence technology.  (read more)
  • Defence must secure northern Australia amid gravest risk since WWII, April 4. By , The Strategist. In the new cold war, Southeast Asia is becoming a contested zone where China, the US and its allies are fighting to sustain their access and influence. This matters deeply to Australia because the superpower that dominates Southeast Asia controls our northern approaches. (read more)

RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)

  • Ukraine: This isn’t the information war you were looking for, April 1. By Lesley Seebeck, The Interpreter. But watch a change in tempo for cyber operations as the on-the-ground military situation trends towards stalemate. (read more)
  • Why China won’t mediate an end to the Ukraine war, April 4. By Joseph S. Nye, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine’s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his ‘smash and grab’ failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorise the civilian population into submission—as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine’s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering. (read more)
  • Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes after bodies found bound, shot, April 4. By Simon Gardner, Reuters. Ukrainian authorities were investigating possible war crimes by Russia after finding hundreds of bodies, some bound and shot at close range, strewn around towns near Kyiv after Kremlin forces withdrew to refocus their attacks in other parts of the country. (read more)