COMPLESSITA’, SCENARI, RISCHIO
Non vi è dubbio che la quarta vittoria di Orban alle elezioni ungheresi solleverà interrogativi da ogni parte. La nostra idea e pratica della democrazia è tale per cui definiamo il regime di Orban come “illiberale”. Chi, come noi, crede nei valori liberali guarda a quel Paese con preoccupazione. Ne vengono alcune considerazioni. La prima riguarda i numeri importanti che hanno confermato Orban al potere: evidentemente, la scelta pro-Putin espressa chiaramente dal leader non ha inciso sostanzialmente sui risultati elettorali. Ciò significa che la grande maggioranza degli ungheresi vuole quel tipo di governo: con questo occorre fare i conti. La seconda considerazione riguarda la realtà e il futuro dell’Europa: essa è un soggetto, come detto più volte, profondamente segnato da divisioni interne. Divisioni che hanno a che fare con prospettive differenti e a volte divergenti: per questo il Vecchio Continente ha bisogno di un sussulto di politica, non scambiando l’apparente unità sulle sanzioni a Mosca come unità sostanziale e indipendenza strategica. Le contraddizioni interne all’Europa e la guerra alle sue porte la rendono politicamente fragile e, allo stato attuale, un vaso di coccio tra vasi di ferro (Russia, con i suoi “alleati tattici” Cina e, forse, India, e gli USA). L’Ucraina, non da oggi, è il campo di battaglia prescelto.
E c’è la Serbia, dove vince Vucic. Il Paese è portatore di una posizione che potremmo definire del “si, ma …”. Nota Reuters: “Vucic ran for a second five-year term on a promise of peace and stability just as Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, which has put Serbia under pressure from the West to choose between its traditional ties with Moscow and aspirations to join the European Union (EU). Vucic acknowledged conflict in Ukraine impacted the campaign and said Serbia has no plans to deviate from its balancing game between the EU membership bid and close ties with Russia and China, a major investor”.
Un player da guardare con attenzione, assai delicato per posizione geografica e per essere una potenza nucleare, è il Pakistan. La crescente instabilità politica e costituzionale deve preoccupare. Scrive Reuters: “The nuclear-armed nation of more than 220 million people lies between Afghanistan to the west, China to the northeast and nuclear rival India to the east, making it of vital strategic importance. Since coming to power in 2018, Khan’s rhetoric has become more anti-American and he has expressed a desire to move closer to China and, recently, Russia – including talks with President Vladimir Putin on the day the invasion of Ukraine began”.
L’area del sud-asiatico, realmente strategica nell’attuale situazione internazionale, è terra di appetiti e di manovre tra la Cina, gli USA e i suoi alleati. In quella parte di mondo, nella quale si muovono dinamiche assai complesse e con particolare attenzione alle strategie cinesi, quali sono le risposte di difesa da parte dell’Australia ?
Seguono le fonti aperte.
(di Marco Emanuele)
- AROUND THE WORLD
- DEFENSE – MILITARY
- RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
AROUND THE WORLD
- Youth politics in East and Southeast Asia. April 1. By Adhiraaj Anand, The Interpreter. Traditional parties are up against an unstoppable force of young activists set to shape democracy in the region. (read more)
- Values and interests in Asia’s new geopolitics, April 4. By East Asia Forum. Francis Fukuyama said the challenge of building modern economic and political structures was, in a nutshell, one of how to ‘get to Denmark’. An Asian democrat of a similar teleological bent to Fukuyama, limiting their visions of political-economic nirvana to their own region, might ask: how do we ‘get to Taiwan (or Japan or South Korea)?’. (read more)
- Asia no arc toward wealthy democracy, April 3. By Dan Slater, East Asia Forum. The end of the Cold War promised the global spread of wealthy democracies. After three decades, this promise has been disappointingly unfulfilled. (read more)
- The (geo)politics and (geo)economics of Australia’s election, April 4. By Graeme Dobell, The Strategist. The federal budget is the starter’s flag for the race to Australia’s May election. Cash splash is prelude to campaign dash. (read more)
- China to pilot digital yuan in more cities, April 4. By Xinhua, Global Times. China’s central bank announced Saturday that its digital yuan pilot program will be expanded to more domestic cities following its successful operation over the past years. (read more)
- China’s RMB cross-border payments soar in 2021: report, April 4. By Xinhua, Global Times. The business volume of cross-border payments of the Chinese currency renminbi (RMB) grew rapidly in 2021, a report from the People’s Bank of China showed. (read more)
China – Philippines
- Chinese FM holds talks with Philippine counterpart on bilateral ties, April 4. By Xinhua, Global Times. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks on Sunday with visiting Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin in Tunxi, east China’s Anhui Province. (read more)
- Costa Rica elects maverick Chaves as president in break with establishment, April 4. By Diego Oré and Alvaro Murillo, Reuters. Anti-establishment economist Rodrigo Chaves clinched Costa Rica’s presidency on Sunday, upending decades of political consensus in the Central American country that is grappling with growing social discontent and mounting national debt. (read more)
- Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam says she will not seek a second term, April 4. By Jessie Pang and James Pomfret, Reuters. Hong Kong’s embattled leader Carrie Lam, who has governed the global financial hub through the unprecedented upheaval of anti-government protests and COVID-19, said on Monday she will not seek a second five-year term of office. (read more)
- Orban scores crushing victory as Ukraine war solidifies support, April 4. By Justyna Pawlak and Krisztina Than, Reuters. Hungary’s nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban scored a fourth consecutive landslide win in Sunday’s election, as voters endorsed his ambition of a conservative, “illiberal” state and shrugged off concerns over Budapest’s close ties with Moscow. (read more)
- Pakistan’s constitutional crisis could lead to military rule, April 4. By Mohammed Ayoob, The Strategist. Pakistan is in the midst of a major political and constitutional crisis. A no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, which was expected to garner a majority of votes, was thrown out on 3 April by the deputy speaker of the National Assembly as ‘unconstitutional’. The reason cited was the presumed existence of a ‘foreign conspiracy’, of which the no-confidence motion was considered a part, to overthrow the elected government. (read more)
- Explainer: What political upheaval in Pakistan means for rest of the world, April 4. By Jonathan Landay and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, Reuters. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan blocked a no-confidence vote he looked sure to lose on Sunday and advised the president to order fresh elections, fueling anger among the opposition and deepening the country’s political crisis. (read more)
South China Sea
- “Lawfare” in the South China Sea disputes, April 1. By Tara Davenport, The Interpreter. Legal mechanisms, while not definitive, have compelled the claimants to examine their position and communicate them. (read more)
- Sri Lankan ministers resign as economic crisis escalates, April 4. By Reuters. Several members of the cabinet in Sri Lanka, including the prime minister’s son, have resigned, just days after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa declared a state of emergency following protests over a deepening economic crisis. (read more)
DEFENSE – MILITARY
- AUKUS can be a good platform for cooperation with India, April 4. By David Brewster, The Interpreter. Someone famous once reputedly quipped “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” So there is a certain echo to the AUKUS arrangement, which brings together Australia, United Kingdom and United States to share vital defence technologies in an effort to stabilise the Indo Pacific region. As an “open architecture”, AUKUS could also offer a good way of working with key regional partners, including India, particularly in high-end defence technology. (read more)
- Defence must secure northern Australia amid gravest risk since WWII, April 4. By Peter Jennings, The Strategist. In the new cold war, Southeast Asia is becoming a contested zone where China, the US and its allies are fighting to sustain their access and influence. This matters deeply to Australia because the superpower that dominates Southeast Asia controls our northern approaches. (read more)
RUSSIA – UKRAINE (impact, reactions, consequences)
- Ukraine: This isn’t the information war you were looking for, April 1. By Lesley Seebeck, The Interpreter. But watch a change in tempo for cyber operations as the on-the-ground military situation trends towards stalemate. (read more)
- Why China won’t mediate an end to the Ukraine war, April 4. By Joseph S. Nye, Project-Syndicate, The Strategist. Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine’s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his ‘smash and grab’ failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorise the civilian population into submission—as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine’s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering. (read more)
- Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes after bodies found bound, shot, April 4. By Simon Gardner, Reuters. Ukrainian authorities were investigating possible war crimes by Russia after finding hundreds of bodies, some bound and shot at close range, strewn around towns near Kyiv after Kremlin forces withdrew to refocus their attacks in other parts of the country. (read more)